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Old 09-17-2004, 05:53 AM  
4th and Long 4th and Long is offline
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Poll Indicates Bush, Kerry Deadlocked Again

http://www.thekansascitychannel.com/...46/detail.html


Poll Indicates Bush, Kerry Deadlocked Again
Kerry Talks To Vets In Las Vegas; Bush Stumps In Minn.


POSTED: 12:00 pm EDT September 16, 2004
UPDATED: 4:37 pm EDT September 16, 2004


Has President George W. Bush already lost his post-convention bounce?

A new poll suggests that the race has once again settled into a virtual tie.

In the days after the Republican National Convention, a poll by the Pew Research Center found Bush ahead of Sen. John Kerry 52 percent to 40 percent among nearly 2,000 registered voters. Among likely voters, the margin was even wider -- 54 to 39.

But a second poll, conducted a few days later, found that the Bush lead had evaporated. That poll put Bush and Kerry at 46 percent apiece among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush was ahead by a point: 47 percent to 46 percent.

Andrew Kohut, the director of the Pew Research Center, pointed to what he called "a great deal of instability and uncertainty" among voters. He said Bush remains vulnerable on Iraq and on the economy.


Bush Talks Health Care, Economy In Minnesota

Bush is touting his health care and economic policies Thursday during a one-day bus tour of Minnesota, a toss-up state that Democrats won in 2000.

Bush took Kerry to task for promising that if elected he would roll back tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. Bush said the plan would hurt small businesses that file tax returns as individuals -- not corporate entities.

The president also said that wealthy Americans would likely hire tax attorneys to exploit loopholes in the Kerry tax plan, and the middle-class taxpayer would wind up picking up the slack.

Bush is promising a simpler tax code and new policies to foster job creation.

The president is also promising a new push to make health care more affordable for Americans. Polls suggest Bush's support is weakest on this issue.

Earlier Thursday, Bush criticized Kerry again on what Bush said is his "inconsistent" position on the war in Iraq.

Bush told a crowd in St. Cloud, Minn., that his opponent "has probably had about eight positions on Iraq." He said Kerry has been for the war and against the war, for increased funding of Iraq operations and against it.

Bush said such talk sends a dangerously mixed message to "our troops, our allies and most of all our enemies."


Kerry: Bush Won't Level With Guard Vets On Iraq

Kerry is in Las Vegas Thursday to speak to a National Guard veterans group, two days after Bush addressed the same gathering.

Kerry told the vets that Bush is "living in a fantasy world of spin."

In his prepared remarks, he said Bush failed to tell U.S. troops or the American people the truth about the situation in Iraq.

And Kerry said Bush "failed the fundamental test of leadership" by refusing to level with the veterans. He said Bush won't admit that each day brings "more chaos, more violence, more indiscriminate killings" in Iraq.

On Tuesday, Bush told the group that Kerry had repeatedly changed his position on the war in Iraq.

On Wednesday evening, Kerry accused Bush of failing the Hispanic community.

The Democratic presidential candidate said Bush has put more than 350,000 Latinos out of work since taking office. Kerry spoke in Spanish near the end of his 30-minute speech at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's annual gala in Washington.

Earlier, he was in Madison, Wis., where he said he had warned Bush not to rush into war with Iraq without the support of allies. He told the Don Imus radio show that Bush -- not he -- should be asked what the plans are for withdrawing from Iraq.
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Old 09-17-2004, 10:38 AM   #2
Raiderhader Raiderhader is offline
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I heard on the radio this morning that the new Gallup poll has Bush up by 13 points.

Of course to demonstrate how little faith I have in polls, it was also repoterd that a Harris poll (I've never heard of this poll before) has Bush up by 1 point. So, whatever......
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Old 09-17-2004, 12:13 PM   #3
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Everyone was on here months ago saying the Harris poll was garbage because it showed Bush up +10 when all the other polls had Kerry up 4-5.

The Pew Poll was pulled apart to show Kerry close.

It seems like something big happened on Wednesday...that's when Rasmussen started moving in Bush's direction and Gallup included Wednesday as part of its polling (the other polls were from earlier in the week).

Of course, as I've said all year, the state polls are what you should look at. There are now 5-6 polls that show Bush winning in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin while other recent polls from Illinois and New Jersey show Bush within the margin of error or even leading.

Fact is, the wheels have come off the Kerry campaign. He can't attack on Iraq because his positions are so conflicted and incoherent. His economic plans are gimmicks and his statements on the war on terror dovetail nicely with the public perception of him as a weak leader.

Kerry had planned to fight in Bush's territory...now he's having to fight to keep states like Illinois and New Jersey and Minnesota. The available options for winning this race are slowly eroding. He's not toast yet, but the bread is out of the bag.
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Old 09-17-2004, 12:19 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raiderhader
I heard on the radio this morning that the new Gallup poll has Bush up by 13 points.

Of course to demonstrate how little faith I have in polls, it was also repoterd that a Harris poll (I've never heard of this poll before) has Bush up by 1 point. So, whatever......

It seems like the polls are all over the place. I don't know what to think... I think the real spread is probably 4 or 5 points... but I can't tell what these polls are doing!
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Old 09-17-2004, 02:48 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
It seems like something big happened on Wednesday...that's when Rasmussen started moving in Bush's direction and Gallup included Wednesday as part of its polling (the other polls were from earlier in the week).
If Wednesday were more than a statistical anomaly, Bush should have furthered his lead today. As it is, his lead dropped slightly instead. Once we get Wednesday out of the survey, I think Rasmussen will be back to two points or so.

In reality, I'd guess that Bush is up around 5% right now, and I'd guess that it will tighten even more before the first debate.

Given that Bush was up 3-7% in most polls at the end of the 2000 election (and we are still weeks away from that date), I don't think we will know anything until at least the first debate . . .

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Old 09-17-2004, 03:03 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Goat
If Wednesday were more than a statistical anomaly, Bush should have furthered his lead today. As it is, his lead dropped slightly instead. Once we get Wednesday out of the survey, I think Rasmussen will be back to two points or so.

In reality, I'd guess that Bush is up around 5% right now, and I'd guess that it will tighten even more before the first debate.

Given that Bush was up 3-7% in most polls at the end of the 2000 election (and we are still weeks away from that date), I don't think we will know anything until at least the first debate . . .

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How dare you use common sense on here.
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Old 09-17-2004, 03:21 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RL
It seems like something big happened on Wednesday...that's when Rasmussen started moving in Bush's direction and Gallup included Wednesday as part of its polling (the other polls were from earlier in the week).
Lets see, was it Rathergate?

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Hey Democrats, YOU FUGGED UP, You nominated him! WTF do you want us to do, lose??
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Old 09-17-2004, 03:25 PM   #8
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Hey Democrats, YOU FUGGED UP, You nominated him!


I tried to give you a rep, but I'm suppose to spread some luv around...
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:48 PM   #9
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The only poll that matters is November 2nd and Kerry is way ahead in that one in regards to those likely to have a whit of sense.

Bush has a kung fu death grip lock on the scared stupid, the "unbelievably partisan no matter how many mistakes the fool makes" crowd, and the "I must remain loyal in my foolish decision to think that Bush had made a case for war in Iraq and it is the press's fault that it is not now our 51st state" crowd, But how many of those could there be?
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:52 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jettio
The only poll that matters is November 2nd?
That's true.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jettio
and Kerry is way ahead in that one in regards to those likely to have a whit of sense.

Bush has a kung fu death grip lock on the scared stupid, the "unbelievably partisan no matter how many mistakes the fool makes" crowd, and the "I must remain loyal in my foolish decision to think that Bush had made a case for war in Iraq and it is the press's fault that it is not now our 51st state" crowd, But how many of those could there be?
That's unbelievably arrogant, hackneyed and in all other ways "unbelievably partisan."
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:00 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
That's true.



That's unbelievably arrogant, hackneyed and in all other ways "unbelievably partisan."
And it's also telling. A month ago, Jettio was spouting that Bush would certainly be "fired". Now that it's apparent that Bush will win (probably in a landslide), it's because the American public is stupid.
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Old 09-17-2004, 08:29 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by FringeNC
And it's also telling. A month ago, Jettio was spouting that Bush would certainly be "fired". Now that it's apparent that Bush will win (probably in a landslide), it's because the American public is stupid.

Remember in November that you posted that.
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Old 09-17-2004, 09:08 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jettio
Remember in November that you posted that.


He wont be the only one that remembers it girly man
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Old 09-17-2004, 09:11 PM   #14
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Remember in November that you posted that.
Do you want to bet, jettio?
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Old 09-17-2004, 09:19 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Donger
Do you want to bet, jettio?
Bet him an Avatar bet, I'll start working on one for him. I don't think he will bet me cause he put me on iggy.


Right girly man?
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