This.

The last six years he's averaged a fan graphs dollar value of 7.1M so it's not that surprising. If 1 war is projected to be 6M then he's appropriately priced. As Duncan already pointed out though small markets can't be paying average rates on guys. We need to get above market production with our resources

I'm absolutely flabbergasted. This might be the single greatest, most constructive post to ever come from your keyboard.

Maybe you aren't just a troll... or... you just trolled us through truth and cognitive thought?

Damnit!!

If they keep him all year, he pitches well as the setup man, and he walks, whatever.

But I would be fine with trading him for something that doesn't necessarily help in 2014 at this point, to a team that needs bullpen help either now or at the deadline.

Even if it's something that can't help until 2016 or later, the Royals have enough bullpen pieces to get over and around trading Hochevar away for future returns.

Our window is probably 2014. Losing teams can't afford to spend money on the bullpen, and we've been a losing team for so long that we're used to thinking they should all be expendable, but we actually need him this season. I'm not going to give a damn about 2016 until this season is over.

The Luke Hochevar FanGraphs thinks exists in terms of effectiveness and value does not exist in the real world.

I like a lot of what FG does and think their PitchFx is one of the coolest, most reliable advanced analysis tools out there regarding pitchers.

But their formula for figuring pitcher WAR and value is ****ed. FanGraphs had Wade Davis as nearly a 2 WAR player this past season.

As far as paying market value for production... it depends on what you're getting and how easily alternatives can be found.

The more rare the commodity and harder it is to find, the more you can afford to pay fair market value for it, based on WAR.

I just think they can win in 2014 without him.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Kelvin Herrera is again the superior reliever this year. KC's bullpen crew is so deep, and Moore has such a good track record with building the bullpen, Hochevar is expendable. Just like any reliever except elite closer types.

Even if they traded Hochevar, they'd still be looking at RH setup crew options that include:

Kelvin Herrera
Louis Coleman
Aaron Crow

Possibly Wade Davis
Possibly Yordano Ventura

The one critique I do have is that they give undue credit to starters, but the data does show crappy starters can be effective in the pen while the converse is far more rare. I'd have no doubt Guthrie could be a 30+ save guy but I'm doubtful Davis can put up Guthrie numbers in the rotation. I do think Hoch can though. Oakland would never shell out $10m for those two to sit in the pen tossing 140 total innings. Why do we?

I used to think Hochevar could be an effective starter, too. But we have years of evidence that shows he can not.

Pitchers go in waves though. We had plenty of evidence Chen would never be effective and he was in KC at an old age for whatever reason. As the old Philly gm said "nobody has figured out pitching for the last 100 years"

I know we've debated it before, but some guys just consistently buck their advanced stats (good or bad). Chen has become one of those over the past 3-4 years, which is not completely unheard of (especially for soft-tossing lefties).

That's why you have to incorporate the scout's eye with advanced numbers and apply context. Keeps the numbers from lying to you.

I'm not saying without Hoch we're screwed and can't make the playoffs. However, this team with Hoch is better than this team without Hoch, and we can not conceivably trade him for someone else who helps us this year.

Given that I don't give a damn about 2015 or later right now, whatever small value Hoch provides this team, I'd rather keep it than trade it in for more value in a future year without Shields. Even if he gives us +0.2 WAR this season over whoever would take his spot and whoever we could trade him for could give us +1 WAR in 2016, I'll keep the fraction of a win in 2014.

edit: there is a limit to the win-now mentality I have, obviously. I'm not trading off Mondesi and Manaea for a 1-year rental of a decent SP.

The Royals and Holland have filed their numbers. Royals offered 4.1, Holland is asking for 5.2

What happens if they don't work it out?

An arbitrator will decide