tk13
10-20-2004, 12:39 AM
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8
Rany: Hey, I have some good news for you. Maybe the best news we’ve had since April. The season’s over. (And I just saved a bunch of money by switching to Geico.)
Actually, there’s a lot more news that came out today. Even before all the fans had filed out of Kauffman for the final time this year, the Royals had fired a couple of coaches and dumped half-a-dozen players off the 40-man roster.
The biggest news is a transaction that will escape most people’s attention, but has a chance to be the most significant addition the Royals make all winter. The Royals fired pitching coach Mike Mason, and replaced him with Guy Hansen.
Guy Hansen. As in, the same Guy Hansen that I’ve been agitating for as pitching coach since, I don’t know, he was fired ten years ago.
It’s not just that he was a good pitching coach, although the Royals did finish 6th, 6th, and 3rd in the league in ERA during his three years at the helm, and Kevin Appier became the best pitcher in the league under his tutelage. It’s that he’s also a good judge of talent. Hansen was a scout before he was the pitching coach, and was the guy that recommended the Royals take Appier with their first-round pick in 1987. Appier was easily the best first-round pick of the decade for a team that had been blowing first-rounders on guys like Frank Wills and Hugh Walker.
Well, anyone can identify first-round talent, right? Except Hansen also had a key part to play in drafting Bret Saberhagen in 1982 – in the 16th round. Most teams saw Saberhagen as a shortstop; Hansen was the one who saw him as a pitcher. Five years later, after he left the Royals to work as the pitching coach at UCLA, he passed on to the Royals that they ought to take a flyer on one of his pitchers – as a hitter. Which is how the Royals ended up drafting Jeff Conine in the 58th round.
There’s a lot more to Hansen’s peripatetic career than just these bullet points, but the point is that Hansen knows talent. Coming to a team with a dozen fine young arms – but only one actual starter – it will help to have someone who knows how to sift through all the throwers to find a couple who can actually pitch.
Rob: I’m not as excited as you are, because I’m still not convinced that a pitching coach, even a great pitching coach, can turn swine into pearls. Is Hansen really going to bring Darrell May and Brian Anderson around? I doubt it.
But if we’re going to judge Hansen, it should be on the performance of two very young pitchers: Zack Greinke (21 next season) and Denny Bautista (22). Though considering how well Greinke pitched this season, maybe you or me could shepherd him about as well as anybody. Considering post-World War II pitchers who were 19, 20, or 21 years old and started at least 20 games and pitched at least 120 innings:
Greinke’s 3.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks fifth, behind (ready for this?) Roger Clemens (4.34), Bret Saberhagen (4.16), Don Sutton (4.02), and Dwight Gooden (3.88). Just behind Greinke are Bert Blyleven, Frank Tanana, Vida Blue, and Gary Nolan.
Greinke’s 1.61 walks per nine innings ranks third, behind Dave Rozema (1.40) and Bret Saberhagen (1.45), and ahead of Rozema (yes, again), Mark Fidrych, Bert Blyleven, Joe Moeller, and Roger Clemens.
It’s funny, because long before Greinke reached the majors, the Royals were comparing him to Bret Saberhagen. Well, here he is, and his early statistical profile is not at all unlike Saberhagen’s.
So any pitching coach’s No. 1 goal, when it comes to Greinke, should be the same as in your profession: “Do no harm.” If they don’t actually screw Greinke up, he’s going to be a hell of a pitcher (yes, even better than Dave Rozema).
Bautista’s a different story. It’s obvious that he’s got great stuff, but it’s just as obvious that he’s not ready to pitch well in the majors yet. I know the Royals are desperate, but I’m tired of them promoting guys from Wichita before they’ve earned that promotion. Let’s see Bautista pitch well in Omaha for a couple of months, and then we can talk.
Rany: Well, I don’t think that Hansen has to bring Anderson around; Mike Mason already did that for him. Say what you will about Mason’s tenure as a pitching coach, but there’s no question that the Brian Anderson that we thought that we were signing – the one who had a 4.58 career ERA coming into 2004 – re-appeared in the second half.
Brian Anderson, through 2003: 4.58 ERA, 9.91 H/G, 4.24 K/G, 1.71 UIBB/G, 1.49 HR/G
Brian Anderson, 2004 first half: 7.23 ERA, 14.23 H/G, 3.39 K/G, 2.94 UIBB/G, 2.15 HR/G
Brian Anderson, 2004 second half: 4.17 ERA, 9.49 H/G, 4.17 K/G, 2.40 UIBB/G, 1.46 HR/G
I’m not saying Anderson is back to being the team’s ace, because of course he was never an ace to begin with, and if there’s one mistake we can pin on Allard Baird, it’s that he thought Anderson could fill the role of #1 starter this season. But he’s a No. 3 starter, at least. Given that most of our guys would be stretched as No. 4's or No. 5's, a No. 3 starter has value.
As for young Donald Zackary . . . I think I’ve said everything I can say about him, but to put it as concisely as possible, not only is he stylistically unique among pitchers in my lifetime, he’s nearly as unique statistically. But it stands that in the last thirty years, the most similar 20-year-old pitcher to him in both regards is Bret Saberhagen. And we both know what Saberhagen did when he was 21.
Given that Hansen took care of Greinke when he was 19 years old and pitching in Puerto Rico, I have little doubts that he can do the same for Greinke when he’s 21 years old and pitching in Kansas City.
Bautista certainly would be helped by a half-season in Triple-A, but I won’t be surprised if the Royals think he’s ready for some OJT next April. His ERA sucked, but he had a decent 18/11 K/BB ratio and only two homers allowed in 28 IP. The Royals blamed his struggles in his first three starts on his reluctance to use his curveball – a pitch almost as good as his 96-mph heater. They essentially forced him to throw his curveball in the last two starts – and sure enough, he only allowed two runs in six innings of each start. Given that the Royals ought to be thinking about 2006 as the earliest they can realistically contend, where Bautista starts next year is less important than simply whether they can keep him healthy. If history is any guide, that’s an iffy proposition.
Rob: Good point about Bautista. When I saw him pitch, he wasn’t bothering to throw anything but his fastball, which got him into trouble because he wasn’t hitting his spots. But I didn’t see either of his last two starts, and I’m encouraged by your report. I still hope he opens the season in Omaha, though. Leave him down there, where he’ll face a lot of experienced hitters, until May or June when one of the big boys is either hurt (somewhat likely) or getting hammered (very likely). There seems to be this culture in the organization lately, where you don’t have to earn your trip to the majors. And I don’t see how that’s healthy.
Rany: Hey, I have some good news for you. Maybe the best news we’ve had since April. The season’s over. (And I just saved a bunch of money by switching to Geico.)
Actually, there’s a lot more news that came out today. Even before all the fans had filed out of Kauffman for the final time this year, the Royals had fired a couple of coaches and dumped half-a-dozen players off the 40-man roster.
The biggest news is a transaction that will escape most people’s attention, but has a chance to be the most significant addition the Royals make all winter. The Royals fired pitching coach Mike Mason, and replaced him with Guy Hansen.
Guy Hansen. As in, the same Guy Hansen that I’ve been agitating for as pitching coach since, I don’t know, he was fired ten years ago.
It’s not just that he was a good pitching coach, although the Royals did finish 6th, 6th, and 3rd in the league in ERA during his three years at the helm, and Kevin Appier became the best pitcher in the league under his tutelage. It’s that he’s also a good judge of talent. Hansen was a scout before he was the pitching coach, and was the guy that recommended the Royals take Appier with their first-round pick in 1987. Appier was easily the best first-round pick of the decade for a team that had been blowing first-rounders on guys like Frank Wills and Hugh Walker.
Well, anyone can identify first-round talent, right? Except Hansen also had a key part to play in drafting Bret Saberhagen in 1982 – in the 16th round. Most teams saw Saberhagen as a shortstop; Hansen was the one who saw him as a pitcher. Five years later, after he left the Royals to work as the pitching coach at UCLA, he passed on to the Royals that they ought to take a flyer on one of his pitchers – as a hitter. Which is how the Royals ended up drafting Jeff Conine in the 58th round.
There’s a lot more to Hansen’s peripatetic career than just these bullet points, but the point is that Hansen knows talent. Coming to a team with a dozen fine young arms – but only one actual starter – it will help to have someone who knows how to sift through all the throwers to find a couple who can actually pitch.
Rob: I’m not as excited as you are, because I’m still not convinced that a pitching coach, even a great pitching coach, can turn swine into pearls. Is Hansen really going to bring Darrell May and Brian Anderson around? I doubt it.
But if we’re going to judge Hansen, it should be on the performance of two very young pitchers: Zack Greinke (21 next season) and Denny Bautista (22). Though considering how well Greinke pitched this season, maybe you or me could shepherd him about as well as anybody. Considering post-World War II pitchers who were 19, 20, or 21 years old and started at least 20 games and pitched at least 120 innings:
Greinke’s 3.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks fifth, behind (ready for this?) Roger Clemens (4.34), Bret Saberhagen (4.16), Don Sutton (4.02), and Dwight Gooden (3.88). Just behind Greinke are Bert Blyleven, Frank Tanana, Vida Blue, and Gary Nolan.
Greinke’s 1.61 walks per nine innings ranks third, behind Dave Rozema (1.40) and Bret Saberhagen (1.45), and ahead of Rozema (yes, again), Mark Fidrych, Bert Blyleven, Joe Moeller, and Roger Clemens.
It’s funny, because long before Greinke reached the majors, the Royals were comparing him to Bret Saberhagen. Well, here he is, and his early statistical profile is not at all unlike Saberhagen’s.
So any pitching coach’s No. 1 goal, when it comes to Greinke, should be the same as in your profession: “Do no harm.” If they don’t actually screw Greinke up, he’s going to be a hell of a pitcher (yes, even better than Dave Rozema).
Bautista’s a different story. It’s obvious that he’s got great stuff, but it’s just as obvious that he’s not ready to pitch well in the majors yet. I know the Royals are desperate, but I’m tired of them promoting guys from Wichita before they’ve earned that promotion. Let’s see Bautista pitch well in Omaha for a couple of months, and then we can talk.
Rany: Well, I don’t think that Hansen has to bring Anderson around; Mike Mason already did that for him. Say what you will about Mason’s tenure as a pitching coach, but there’s no question that the Brian Anderson that we thought that we were signing – the one who had a 4.58 career ERA coming into 2004 – re-appeared in the second half.
Brian Anderson, through 2003: 4.58 ERA, 9.91 H/G, 4.24 K/G, 1.71 UIBB/G, 1.49 HR/G
Brian Anderson, 2004 first half: 7.23 ERA, 14.23 H/G, 3.39 K/G, 2.94 UIBB/G, 2.15 HR/G
Brian Anderson, 2004 second half: 4.17 ERA, 9.49 H/G, 4.17 K/G, 2.40 UIBB/G, 1.46 HR/G
I’m not saying Anderson is back to being the team’s ace, because of course he was never an ace to begin with, and if there’s one mistake we can pin on Allard Baird, it’s that he thought Anderson could fill the role of #1 starter this season. But he’s a No. 3 starter, at least. Given that most of our guys would be stretched as No. 4's or No. 5's, a No. 3 starter has value.
As for young Donald Zackary . . . I think I’ve said everything I can say about him, but to put it as concisely as possible, not only is he stylistically unique among pitchers in my lifetime, he’s nearly as unique statistically. But it stands that in the last thirty years, the most similar 20-year-old pitcher to him in both regards is Bret Saberhagen. And we both know what Saberhagen did when he was 21.
Given that Hansen took care of Greinke when he was 19 years old and pitching in Puerto Rico, I have little doubts that he can do the same for Greinke when he’s 21 years old and pitching in Kansas City.
Bautista certainly would be helped by a half-season in Triple-A, but I won’t be surprised if the Royals think he’s ready for some OJT next April. His ERA sucked, but he had a decent 18/11 K/BB ratio and only two homers allowed in 28 IP. The Royals blamed his struggles in his first three starts on his reluctance to use his curveball – a pitch almost as good as his 96-mph heater. They essentially forced him to throw his curveball in the last two starts – and sure enough, he only allowed two runs in six innings of each start. Given that the Royals ought to be thinking about 2006 as the earliest they can realistically contend, where Bautista starts next year is less important than simply whether they can keep him healthy. If history is any guide, that’s an iffy proposition.
Rob: Good point about Bautista. When I saw him pitch, he wasn’t bothering to throw anything but his fastball, which got him into trouble because he wasn’t hitting his spots. But I didn’t see either of his last two starts, and I’m encouraged by your report. I still hope he opens the season in Omaha, though. Leave him down there, where he’ll face a lot of experienced hitters, until May or June when one of the big boys is either hurt (somewhat likely) or getting hammered (very likely). There seems to be this culture in the organization lately, where you don’t have to earn your trip to the majors. And I don’t see how that’s healthy.