Is it too early for a cdcox statistical prognostication?

[Cormac]

Yesterday we showed the calibre of team we have. I have never doubted that our talent on D was good enough to put up performances like we have seen the last few weeks. And hopefully they will continue to improve. Gun's playcalling was so good it was shocking to see after the lean years. Also, our O was at its absolute best. Then my excitement was tempered by the realisation that we still appear to be screwed when looking at the records of other playoff contending teams. We have a huge mountain to climb. Obviously it's extremely early in the season, but at 2-4, we are already in a must-win mode. The Jax loss is going to hurt us for a long time, IMO. Not to mention that we never should have lost that game, now we'll lose the tie-breaker to them. And with the Jets at 5-1, even if we finish the year 10-6 it may not be good enough. It might be that we have as good a chance of catching Denver, as we do of winning a WC???

cdcox, can you shed any light on our chances? I assume you need the picture to shake out for at least a few more weeks, but I just thought I'd ask.

[Phobia]

I'm guessing his statistics show we have a .01% chance of a wildcard and a .0000001% of winning the division.

[Rain Man]

Woohoo! We're still in it!

[cdcox]

Thanks for asking, but things are not great in playoff prediction land.

I have illusions of grandure that I can achieve world fame by putting out an executable version of my program with a decent graphical interface that would allow the masses to do their own predictions. I even recruited a real programmer (Steeler fan) to assist in the matter. We were going to do it in our "free time". Well, we are now in the heart of playoff prediction season, and only about 15% of the way there.

So, I probably ought to just go back to my QuickBasic ROFL ROFL program and run it there for another year. Only obstacle there is that my laptop went kaput last week. :cuss: This is my "main computer". At work I am stuck using a computer in a student lab. :cuss: At home I have a pentiumII. :cuss: :cuss: :cuss: I don't know when the laptop will be up again. One consolation is that I did tranfer most of what I need to do the predictions before the laptop went dead. I need a block of 3 to 4 hours to get this year's schedule loaded in the right format. I would do it during the game tonight, but no laptop, :cuss: :cuss: . I'll try to get something up by the weekend.

[Cormac]

Thanks for asking, but things are not great in playoff prediction land.

I have illusions of grandure that I can achieve world fame by putting out an executable version of my program with a decent graphical interface that would allow the masses to do their own predictions. I even recruited a real programmer (Steeler fan) to assist in the matter. We were going to do it in our "free time". Well, we are now in the heart of playoff prediction season, and only about 15% of the way there.

So, I probably ought to just go back to my QuickBasic ROFL ROFL program and run it there for another year. Only obstacle there is that my laptop went kaput last week. :cuss: This is my "main computer". At work I am stuck using a computer in a student lab. :cuss: At home I have a pentiumII. :cuss: :cuss: :cuss: I don't know when the laptop will be up again. One consolation is that I did tranfer most of what I need to do the predictions before the laptop went dead. I need a block of 3 to 4 hours to get this year's schedule loaded in the right format. I would do it during the game tonight, but no laptop, :cuss: :cuss: . I'll try to get something up by the weekend.

Thanks.

Don't sweat it. It's not like we're playing for homefield advantage, but it would be nice to know if there's any point in dragging out the hoping and praying!

[Rain Man]

I'll bet the mob made him stop to keep the Vegas gambling scene alive.

Hang in there, cdcox. Don't let them take you down!

[Dave Lane]

I'm guessing his statistics show we have a .01% chance of a wildcard and a .0000001% of winning the division.

So you're saying there's a chance...

Dave

[cdcox]

Just got everything transferred to a format that I can use with a borrowed laptop (has no wireless card, no broadband port, no drivers for USB flash memory sticks -- very difficult to get any files in or out and zero internet access). May be able to send some predictions out on the PentiumII home computer by the end of tonight's game.

[Rain Man]

Way to go. Stand up to them. As a warning, though, don't stand in front of any windows tonight. The mob has snipers.

[cdcox]

6% chance of making the playoffs. Could be at least twice as high, but we are doing poorly in tiebreakers right now (losing about 3/4). A win aginst Indy would definitely improve our prospects.

I'll give a league wide report later today (Thursday).

This took about 5x longer than I planned because my power ranking program was all screwed up. But it is done now, and should require much less effort than in the past to generate the weekly reports.