Tinlar Power Rankings

[Tinlar]

Unlike a lot of power rankings I base mine on more than spit, whiskey, and the wind. What I do is basically take a team and see if the have won or lost. If they have won then they get the other teams win percentage added to their Power Ranking total, if they have lost then they go down in power ranking by 1-opponents win percentage. So in short its based on not just a teams record but how soft the teams they have played are. My ranking have the Eagles owning the Pats and us a good ways behind the Chargers and Broncs.


Rank Team Standing Score
1 Eagles 6-0-0 3.250
2 Patriots 6-0-0 2.083
3 Vikings 5-1-0 1.900
4 Jaguars 5-2-0 1.717
5 Colts 4-2-0 1.500
6 Giants 4-2-0 1.433
7 Falcons 5-2-0 1.181
8 Jets 5-1-0 0.843
9 Lions 4-2-0 0.833
10 Steelers 5-1-0 0.833
11 Broncos 5-2-0 0.648
12 Ravens 4-2-0 0.450
13 Chargers 4-3-0 0.369
14 Rams 4-3-0 0.200
15 Texans 3-3-0 -0.052
16 Cowboys 2-4-0 -0.450
17 Browns 3-4-0 -0.667
18 Buccaneers 2-5-0 -1.033
19 Cardinals 2-4-0 -1.067
20 Packers 3-4-0 -1.600
21 Seahawks 3-3-0 -1.633
22 Chiefs 2-4-0 -1.733
23 Panthers 1-5-0 -1.750
24 Bengals 2-4-0 -1.814
25 Saints 3-4-0 -1.917
26 Titans 2-5-0 -2.383
27 Bears 1-5-0 -2.467
28 Redskins 2-4-0 -2.488
29 Dolphins 1-6-0 -2.500
30 Bills 1-5-0 -2.567
31 Raiders 2-5-0 -2.712
32 49ers 1-5-0 -2.750

[el borracho]

I hate that the Eagles are so good this year! I hope they lose the NFC Championship game again!

[Phobia]

I hate that the Eagles are so good this year! I hope they lose the NFC Championship game again!

How could they possibly be Billked out of it 4 times in a row?

[|Zach|]

I always find myself pulling for the Eagles...

[el borracho]

How could they possibly be Billked out of it 4 times in a row?
Maybe the Bills will give them some advice.

[BIG_DADDY]

I hate that the Eagles are so good this year! I hope they lose the NFC Championship game again!

Ideally I would like to see someone take out TO while he is reaching for his sharpie.

[el borracho]

How could they possibly be Billked out of it 4 times in a row?

Hey! Wait a second... was that an intentional mis-spell?

[BIG_DADDY]

OK

[Phobia]

Hey! Wait a second... was that an intentional mis-spell?

Do you really need to ask? ;)

[el borracho]

Do you really need to ask? ;)
No. What I really need is to sleep.

'Night, all.

[Tinlar]

And just to put it to the test I've run the numbers based on my Power Rankings and this is how the results of the coming week should look. Yes I know if picks the Colts over the Chiefs but based on just the numbers you have to.

Here's to upsets!
:toast:


Bears (1-5-0) over the 49ers (1-5-0)
Bengals (2-4-0) over the Titans (2-5-0)
Cardinals (2-4-0) over the Bills (1-5-0)
Chargers (4-3-0) over the Raiders (2-5-0)
Colts (4-2-0) over the Chiefs (2-4-0)
Eagles (6-0-0) over the Ravens (4-2-0)
Falcons (5-2-0) over the Broncos (5-2-0)
Jaguars (5-2-0) over the Texans (3-3-0)
Jets (5-1-0) over the Dolphins (1-6-0)
Lions (4-2-0) over the Cowboys (2-4-0)
Packers (3-4-0) over the Redskins (2-4-0)
Patriots (6-0-0) over the Steelers (5-1-0)
Seahawks (3-3-0) over the Panthers (1-5-0)
Vikings (5-1-0) over the Giants (4-2-0)
:BLVD:

[Tinlar]

Wow, I just ran the season so far through this to check to see how well it predicted the winners each week. It has been very accurate so far this season.

Points of note:
* It is only possible to begin predictions in week 2 since there is no collected date to predict anything about week 1.
* Of the 85 games I was able to make a prediction on with this system it only missed on 11 of them, making it good for a 87.06% accuracy rate.
* KC is the cause for two of those upsets.
* KC was the very first team to upset the system in week 4 and they were the only upset that week.

[Garcia Bronco]

Ideally I would like to see someone take out TO while he is reaching for his sharpie.

Interesting reading this after some of your posts about the Bronco O-line.

[Demonpenz]

The eagles will be in the superbowl and T.O. is the difference.

[Tinlar]

After week 8 this is how I rank them...

Rank Team Standing Score
1 Eagles 7-0-0 4.250
2 Giants 5-2-0 2.433
3 Falcons 6-2-0 2.181
4 Patriots 6-1-0 2.083
5 Vikings 5-2-0 1.900
6 Jets 6-1-0 1.843
7 Steelers 6-1-0 1.833
8 Jaguars 5-3-0 1.717
9 Colts 4-3-0 1.500
10 Chargers 5-3-0 1.369
11 Texans 4-3-0 0.948
12 Lions 4-3-0 0.833
13 Broncos 5-3-0 0.648
14 Cowboys 3-4-0 0.550
15 Ravens 4-3-0 0.450
16 Rams 4-3-0 0.200
17 Packers 4-4-0 -0.600
18 Seahawks 4-3-0 -0.633
19 Browns 3-4-0 -0.667
20 Chiefs 3-4-0 -0.733
21 Buccaneers 2-5-0 -1.033
22 Cardinals 2-5-0 -1.067
23 Titans 3-5-0 -1.383
24 Bears 2-5-0 -1.467
25 Bills 2-5-0 -1.567
26 Panthers 1-6-0 -1.750
27 Bengals 2-5-0 -1.814
28 Saints 3-4-0 -1.917
29 Redskins 2-5-0 -2.488
30 Dolphins 1-7-0 -2.500
31 Raiders 2-6-0 -2.712
32 49ers 1-6-0 -2.750

[Tinlar]

Based on my rankings this is how next week should play out...


Cardinals (2-5-0) over the Dolphins (1-7-0)
Chargers (5-3-0) over the Saints (3-4-0)
Chiefs (3-4-0) over the Buccaneers (2-5-0)
Cowboys (3-4-0) over the Bengals (2-5-0)
Eagles (7-0-0) over the Steelers (6-1-0)
Giants (5-2-0) over the Bears (2-5-0)
Jets (6-1-0) over the Bills (2-5-0)
Lions (4-3-0) over the Redskins (2-5-0)
Panthers (1-6-0) over the Raiders (2-6-0)
Patriots (6-1-0) over the Rams (4-3-0)
Ravens (4-3-0) over the Browns (3-4-0)
Seahawks (4-3-0) over the 49ers (1-6-0)
Texans (4-3-0) over the Broncos (5-3-0)
Vikings (5-2-0) over the Colts (4-3-0)

[Hammock Parties]

Cool.

[cdcox]

Tinlar:

Nice work. I have added the scores from my power ranking system next to yours for comparison purposes. They are scaled to be between 0 and 1. As you can see, my method tends to rank teams into catagories (several teams tied with the same score). Teams that have equal scores are considered "about even". Teams with different scores are considered statistically different. This method recognizes that the outcome of any game depends not only on the true ability of both teams, but also various random factors that might vary from one week to another. Two other differences in our methods: a) your method depends on the order the games are played and b) my method can also be used to predict not only which team will win, but also the probability of that occuring. I'll post those probabilities in your week 9 prediction post.

It is intersting to see what other people use for their power ratings. Keep up the good work!


After week 8 this is how I rank them...

Rank Team Standing Score cdcox score
1 Eagles 7-0-0 4.250 1
2 Giants 5-2-0 2.433 1
3 Falcons 6-2-0 2.181 0.7
4 Patriots 6-1-0 2.083 1
5 Vikings 5-2-0 1.900 1
6 Jets 6-1-0 1.843 1
7 Steelers 6-1-0 1.833 1
8 Jaguars 5-3-0 1.717 0.69
9 Colts 4-3-0 1.500 0.5
10 Chargers 5-3-0 1.369 0.7
11 Texans 4-3-0 0.948 0.69
12 Lions 4-3-0 0.833 0.70
13 Broncos 5-3-0 0.648 0.6
14 Cowboys 3-4-0 0.550 0.5
15 Ravens 4-3-0 0.450 0.72
16 Rams 4-3-0 0.200 0.1
17 Packers 4-4-0 -0.600 0.5
18 Seahawks 4-3-0 -0.633 0.1
19 Browns 3-4-0 -0.667 0.5
20 Chiefs 3-4-0 -0.733 0.5
21 Buccaneers 2-5-0 -1.033 0
22 Cardinals 2-5-0 -1.067 0
23 Titans 3-5-0 -1.383 0.3
24 Bears 2-5-0 -1.467 0
25 Bills 2-5-0 -1.567 0
26 Panthers 1-6-0 -1.750 0.1
27 Bengals 2-5-0 -1.814 0.3
28 Saints 3-4-0 -1.917 0
29 Redskins 2-5-0 -2.488 0
30 Dolphins 1-7-0 -2.500 0
31 Raiders 2-6-0 -2.712 0
32 49ers 1-6-0 -2.750 0

[Mark M]

Damn ... and I thought I had too much time on my hands. ;)

Nice work, fellas!

MM
~~:thumb:

[FAX]

An excellent breakdown, gentlemen. But, who and how many must we vanquish to enter the top 10?

Best,

FAX

[cdcox]

Here are the predictions for next weeks games based on my power ratings:

Based on my rankings this is how next week should play out...


cdcox's predictions
Cardinals (2-5-0) over the Dolphins (1-7-0) pick 'em
Chargers (5-3-0) over the Saints (3-4-0) Chargers 78%
Chiefs (3-4-0) over the Buccaneers (2-5-0) Chiefs 71%
Cowboys (3-4-0) over the Bengals (2-5-0) Cowboys 58%
Eagles (7-0-0) over the Steelers (6-1-0) pick 'em
Giants (5-2-0) over the Bears (2-5-0) Giants 87%
Jets (6-1-0) over the Bills (2-5-0) Jets 87%
Lions (4-3-0) over the Redskins (2-5-0) Lions 78%
Panthers (1-6-0) over the Raiders (2-6-0) Panthers 54%
Patriots (6-1-0) over the Rams (4-3-0) Patriots 84%
Ravens (4-3-0) over the Browns (3-4-0) Ravens 60%
Seahawks (4-3-0) over the 49ers (1-6-0) Seattle 54%
Texans (4-3-0) over the Broncos* (5-3-0) Texans 54%
Vikings (5-2-0) over the Colts (4-3-0) Vikings 71%


I really don't like the computer picks for the last two games. Two things that neither of our methods take into consideration are homefield advantage and injuries. My rankings have the ability to factor in homefield advantage, but the outcomes of the games so far have not demonstrated that it is a significant variable in the outcome of games.

*violated the salary cap during their championship seasons