Expecting A Blowout

[FAX]

According to the descendents of William Carlos Williams, the Bucks are averaging just over 15.5 points per game so far this season. This astounding number has come against teams the caliber of Washington, the Raiders, and Chicago. In their two wins over NO and Chicago, (they actually lost to the Raiders 20/30), this offensive juggernaut averaged 19.5 PPG. They have lost at home to Seattle (6/10) and Denver (13/16). In fact, the most points they have scored at home was 19 against Chicago in that win. And, in that game, their 3rd down conversion percentage was 46.2 and their TOP was 32:11 … well above their season average.

Like the mysterious flowering Abrus Precatorius, the Bucks may well be a cure for any abdominal discomfort afflicting Chiefs fans on Sunday. League-wise, they are currently ranked 24th in total offense (Chiefs are 3rd), 28th in Rushing offense (Chiefs are 1st), and 19th in passing offense (Chiefs are 9th).

Everyone talks about their vaunted defense and, indeed, they are highly ranked in both yardage and points allowed. However, they are ranked 25th in the league in 3rd down attempts against them and 14th in third down completion percentage (35.6%). They are also ranked 15th in defensive TOP. And, all of this against offensive powerhouses like the Raiders, Washington, and Chicago.

In addition, they allow more plays per game against their defense as compared to the Chiefs and they have more defensive penalties. This is highly encouraging as it means that opponent offenses can, in fact, keep the ball and move the ball against them.

In my humble opinion, this may well be a blowout. If the Chiefs can keep our offense on the field for 32 to 35 minutes and if DV’s hint about the intensity in practice means that our D shows up to play, this is going to be an extremely enjoyable game to watch.

Chiefs 42
Bucks 17 (likely fewer)

Best,

FAX

[Cannibal]

According to the descendents of William Carlos Williams, the Bucks are averaging just over 15.5 points per game so far this season. This astounding number has come against teams the caliber of Washington, the Raiders, and Chicago. In their two wins over NO and Chicago, (they actually lost to the Raiders 20/30), this offensive juggernaut averaged 19.5 PPG. They have lost at home to Seattle (6/10) and Denver (13/16). In fact, the most points they have scored at home was 19 against Chicago in that win. And, in that game, their 3rd down conversion percentage was 46.2 and their TOP was 32:11 … well above their season average.

Like the mysterious flowering Abrus Precatorius, the Bucks may well be a cure for any abdominal discomfort afflicting Chiefs fans on Sunday. League-wise, they are currently ranked 24th in total offense (Chiefs are 3rd), 28th in Rushing offense (Chiefs are 1st), and 19th in passing offense (Chiefs are 9th).

Everyone talks about their vaunted defense and, indeed, they are highly ranked in both yardage and points allowed. However, they are ranked 25th in the league in 3rd down attempts against them and 14th in third down completion percentage (35.6%). They are also ranked 15th in defensive TOP. And, all of this against offensive powerhouses like the Raiders, Washington, and Chicago.

In addition, they allow more plays per game against their defense as compared to the Chiefs and they have more defensive penalties. This is highly encouraging as it means that opponent offenses can, in fact, keep the ball and move the ball against them.

In my humble opinion, this may well be a blowout. If the Chiefs can keep our offense on the field for 32 to 35 minutes and if DV’s hint about the intensity in practice means that our D shows up to play, this is going to be an extremely enjoyable game to watch.

Chiefs 42
Bucks 17 (likely fewer)

Best,

FAX

Pretty good analysis. However, the Chiefs have history of eating load in the state of Florida. IMO we'll either blow them out as you say, or lay an egg and squeek by in a nail biter. Either way, I think the Chiefs win.

[Chieficus]

Like the mysterious flowering Abrus Precatorius, the Bucks may well be a cure for any abdominal discomfort afflicting Chiefs fans on Sunday.

:LOL: (That's great...love it!!!)

Anyway...

As good as the Bucs D is supposed to be, I'm not sure that I'd call for a blowout. It's all going to hing on our O-line again... Of course, even with our dismal pass coverage in the second half last week (though maybe partly due to our dismal pass rush unlike in the first half), one might be tempted to think the Bucs could have a bit of a run of offense...but who's their QB... Simms??? Greasball??? :jester:

It should be a good game to give a bost of confidence to the D, but because of the Buc's D, I won't call for a blowout where we hang 40+ points on them... (then again, oh me of little faith, the Falcons did have that great run defense... ROFL )

[Pants]

I think it's a trap game.

**crosses his fingers**

[beer bacon]

I think it's a trap game.

**crosses his fingers**

At 3-4 there should be no trap games.

[FAX]

I think it's a trap game.

**crosses his fingers**

I don't think so, Mr. Metrolike. If you look inside the numbers, if we can continue to convert on 3rd down (where they are fairly weak), it will be a long day for Bucks fans, I promise you.

I also think their D is statistically overrated due to their schedule. I don't think they've seen anything like our offense yet.

Best,

FAX

[Pants]

At 3-4 there should be no trap games.

Yeah, but we are heavily favored to win there. And seeing the CP members talking over this week, it's evident the vast majority thinks we got this in our pocket... I hate bad surprises.

[beer bacon]

Yeah, but we are heavily favored to win there. And seeing the CP members talking over this week, it's evident the vast majority thinks we got this in our pocket... I hate bad surprises.

CP may be (is) overconfident, but I don't think the team is. The defense still sounds extremely hungry, and it the coaches know we will have to run to win.

[Nzoner]

The defense still sounds extremely hungry,

After Coach V's post-game comments last week about the D giving up 500 yds etc. I think the D will be the major contributor's this weekend.

I'm expecting at least one defensive score.

[Deberg_1990]

I'm expecting at least one defensive score.


My Boy Bartee gets his 1st career INT and returns it for a TD!!!!

[Dr. Johnny Fever]

I would caution everyone not to get too cocky. We are playing a good, if not great defensive team...in their house. Our defense has gotten much better...but is still not high calliber. Our offense has certainly been great of late but there is no gaurantee's that it will continue this way. Tampa has a lot of pride and a lot to prove....and we did lose to Houston...at home. This game is far from a gimme.

I'd love to see a blow out...but I'd be satisfied with any win... and I'd consider us fortunate to get it.

Lets at least get over .500 before we start getting too cocky.

[FAX]

I would caution everyone not to get too cocky. We are playing a good, if not great defensive team...in their house. Our defense has gotten much better...but is still not high calliber. Our offense has certainly been great of late but there is no gaurantee's that it will continue this way. Tampa has a lot of pride and a lot to prove....and we did lose to Houston...at home. This game is far from a gimme.

I'd love to see a blow out...but I'd be satisfied with any win... and I'd consider us fortunate to get it.

Lets at least get over .500 before we start getting too cocky.

Quite so, Mr. beer me, quite so. I am the last to succumb to overconfidence at this point after all that's happened. However, consider this:

The Bucks TOP stats so far this season are poor.
The Bucks 3rd down defense so far this season is worse.
The Bucks O so far this season is worse yet.

If the Chiefs can win the TOP battle, and
If the Chiefs can convert on 3rd down, and
If the Chiefs can score in the red zone,

The Bucks will find themselves playing from behind and what little confidence we might dare to express would have been well placed, would it not?

Best,

FAX

[Deberg_1990]

Is my Boy Greise the starting QB??

[Dr. Johnny Fever]

Quite so, Mr. beer me, quite so. I am the last to succumb to overconfidence at this point after all that's happened. However, consider this:

The Bucks TOP stats so far this season are poor.
The Bucks 3rd down defense so far this season is worse.
The Bucks O so far this season is worse yet.

If the Chiefs can win the TOP battle, and
If the Chiefs can convert on 3rd down, and
If the Chiefs can score in the red zone,

The Bucks will find themselves playing from behind and what little confidence we might dare to express would have been well placed, would it not?

Best,

FAX
I hope you are correct...and I'll salute you if you are!

:thumb:

[Nzoner]

I would caution everyone not to get too cocky

I prefer to think I'm being cautiously optimistic.

[Bowser]

Is my Boy Greise the starting QB??

Oh yeah, Little Greasy will line 'em up against us.

We owe him a sack or four for the drubbing he put on us in 2002. Or was it 2001?

[TEX]

IMO, IF the CHIEFS can run on the Bucs, they'll win by 10 points or more. If in the process we get up on them big early on, it could be worse than 10. Still, winning on the road in the NFL is very tough and the Bucs are playing better since Griese Ball took over the QB duties...

[Nightfyre]

Hehehehehe you guys will love what ive done here:
After taking the Standard Deviation of TB's Defensive performance, I have found that they typically hold an offense to 79% (+/- 32%)of what their average is (after eliminating outliers.)
If we were to go on the season numbers, that would leave the Chiefs with 320 yds (+/- 103 yds.) Based on the last two weeks of KCs performance that would be 446 (+/- 142 yds.)

Ive compiled other stats in the name of the Chiefs and the legacy of their glory at this Bucs Board.

http://bbs.buccaneers.com/showthread.php?t=80612&page=1&pp=30