KChiefs1
09-23-2005, 01:23 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/4897644
The defensive side of the Aikman Efficiency Ratings through two weeks of the NFL season reveals four teams — the Giants, Chiefs, Bengals and Colts — who have been rewarded in the Aikmans, which measure a total of seven important categories. But those teams fare much differently in the NFL's means of ranking, which is simply total yards allowed.
The four teams are a combined 8-0 so far. All have impressed with their caliber of defensive play. None of these teams have allowed more than 29 points in their two games, and the Colts have allowed only 10 total.
Yet the NFL system of yards allowed has them down in the mid-20s, alongside soft defenses like the Packers (22nd).
The Aikman Ratings are calibrated based on decade-long totals so that a rating of 75.0 on either offense or defense should represent an "average" defense (with the rating getting higher on either side).
We have a 10-year collection of Aikman Ratings with the average league offensive rating above that mark in five years and below it in five. There has been a recent trend towards offense, with each of the last three years above the 75.0 mark including the record 76.8 in 2002 and last year's 76.7.
So far this year though, the trend is defensive with the average offensive rating at only 72.2 through Week 2.
The change starts at the top where all four of last year's top offenses have tumbled. Drowning under a pile of turnovers, the Vikings have fallen from fourth last year to 32nd.
On the other side of the ball, a number of teams seem to have upgraded significantly on defense. Last year, the Ravens led a tightly-bunched group of defenses at 84.2, the lowest rating ever to rank first in a year on defense. It's early, but so far 11 defenses have a higher rating.
Certainly Chicago's defense was impressive when I saw them stifle the Lions last week, and they rank No. 1 with a 112.5 rating so far. The Buccaneers and the four defenses mentioned above also seem to be improved. The rise of defensive play in 2005 will be something we'll keep an eye on.
It's early, but right now the Steelers (194.7) and Buccaneers (193.4) have the two highest combined offensive and defensive ratings. Last year, the two highest "combined" teams in their respective conferences, the Patriots and Eagles met in the Super Bowl.
I also must remind you that sometimes the ratings are skewed by the caliber of competition in a small sample of games. The Rams, at 85.5, seem to have made defensive progress. But their two opponents are the 49ers and Cardinals who may not present the sternest offensive test. We probably should let things shake out for a couple of more weeks before reaching too many conclusions.
The seven categories measured are:
Adjusted Points (20 percent): Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties.
Turnovers (20 percent).
Red Zone Efficiency (20 percent): Measured by Percent of Possible Points (figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).
Yards Per Play: Divided into Yards Per Rush (10 percent of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10 percent of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First Down Achievement: Divided into Total First Downs (10 percent of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10 percent of total).
MISFIRING OFFENSES
Team 2004 2005
Colts 94.4 75.3
Chiefs 92.4 83.1
Chargers 91.0 75.8
Vikings 88.7 43.9
Aikman Efficiency Ratings/Offense
Aikman NFL Team Rating
1. 3. Pittsburgh Steelers 106.0
2. 2. Philadelphia Eagles 91.8
3. 1. Cincinnati Bengals 88.6
4. 18. Dallas Cowboys 88.2
5. 6. Kansas City Chiefs 83.1
6. 26. New York Giants 82.8
7. 15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 82.0
8. 12. New England Patriots 80.8
9. 8. St. Louis Rams 79.6
10. 21. Carolina Panthers 79.4
11. 28 Chicago Bears 78.8
12. 13(t) Jacksonville Jaguars 76.3
13. 13. (t) Oakland Raiders 76.1
14. 27. San Diego Chargers 75.8
15. 20. Indianapolis Colts 75.3
16. 4. Cleveland Browns 74.4
17. 16. (t) Miami Dolphins 73.4
18. 5. Seattle Seahawks 72.3
19. 25. Atlanta Falcons 72.3
20. 32. Houston Texans 69.9
21. 11. Green Bay Packers 65.5
22. 16. (t) New York Jets 65.2
23. 30. Buffalo Bills 64.9
24. 7. New Orleans Saints 62.6
25. 9. Arizona Cardinals 61.8
26. 31. San Francisco 49ers 60.8
27. 22. Tennessee Titans 58.7
28. 23. Baltimore Ravens 57.4
29. 29. Detroit Lions 57.0
30. 19. Denver Broncos 55.6
31. 10. Washington Redskins 50.6
32. 24. Minnesota Vikings 43.9
Aikman Efficiency Ratings/Defense
Aikman NFL Team Rating
1. 7. Chicago Bears 112.5
2. 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 111.4
3. 29. New York Giants 97.2
4. 3. Philadelphia Eagles 94.7
5. 23. Cincinnati Bengals 93.3
6. 26. Kansas City Chiefs 91.6
7. 5. Pittsburgh Steelers 88.7
8. 24. (t) Indianpolis Colts 87.7
9. 6. Detroit Lions 86.7
10. 10. Miami Dolphins 86.4
11. 14. St. Louis Rams 85.5
12. 4. Washington Redskins 83.3
13. 9. Carolina Panthers 79.7
14. 18. Baltimore Ravens 79.6
15. 20. Dallas Cowboys 77.8
16. 13. Jacksonville Jaguars 77.8
17. 27. Atlanta Falcons 77.5
18. 17. New York Jets 77.0
19. 2. Buffalo Bills 73.7
20. 8. Arizona Cardinals 70.5
21. 16. New Orleans Saints 70.4
22. 21. Denver Broncos 69.4
23. 11. Seattle Seahawks 67.9
24. 19. San Diego Chargers 67.5
25. 15. Tennessee Titans 66.7
26. 30. Minnesota Vikings 66.7
27. 22. Green Bay Packers 63.2
28. 24. (t) Houston Texans 62.8
29. 31. Cleveland Browns 61.4
30. 12. New England Patriots 61.0
31. 28 Oakland Raiders 60.7
32. 32. San Francisco 49ers 53.5
The defensive side of the Aikman Efficiency Ratings through two weeks of the NFL season reveals four teams — the Giants, Chiefs, Bengals and Colts — who have been rewarded in the Aikmans, which measure a total of seven important categories. But those teams fare much differently in the NFL's means of ranking, which is simply total yards allowed.
The four teams are a combined 8-0 so far. All have impressed with their caliber of defensive play. None of these teams have allowed more than 29 points in their two games, and the Colts have allowed only 10 total.
Yet the NFL system of yards allowed has them down in the mid-20s, alongside soft defenses like the Packers (22nd).
The Aikman Ratings are calibrated based on decade-long totals so that a rating of 75.0 on either offense or defense should represent an "average" defense (with the rating getting higher on either side).
We have a 10-year collection of Aikman Ratings with the average league offensive rating above that mark in five years and below it in five. There has been a recent trend towards offense, with each of the last three years above the 75.0 mark including the record 76.8 in 2002 and last year's 76.7.
So far this year though, the trend is defensive with the average offensive rating at only 72.2 through Week 2.
The change starts at the top where all four of last year's top offenses have tumbled. Drowning under a pile of turnovers, the Vikings have fallen from fourth last year to 32nd.
On the other side of the ball, a number of teams seem to have upgraded significantly on defense. Last year, the Ravens led a tightly-bunched group of defenses at 84.2, the lowest rating ever to rank first in a year on defense. It's early, but so far 11 defenses have a higher rating.
Certainly Chicago's defense was impressive when I saw them stifle the Lions last week, and they rank No. 1 with a 112.5 rating so far. The Buccaneers and the four defenses mentioned above also seem to be improved. The rise of defensive play in 2005 will be something we'll keep an eye on.
It's early, but right now the Steelers (194.7) and Buccaneers (193.4) have the two highest combined offensive and defensive ratings. Last year, the two highest "combined" teams in their respective conferences, the Patriots and Eagles met in the Super Bowl.
I also must remind you that sometimes the ratings are skewed by the caliber of competition in a small sample of games. The Rams, at 85.5, seem to have made defensive progress. But their two opponents are the 49ers and Cardinals who may not present the sternest offensive test. We probably should let things shake out for a couple of more weeks before reaching too many conclusions.
The seven categories measured are:
Adjusted Points (20 percent): Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties.
Turnovers (20 percent).
Red Zone Efficiency (20 percent): Measured by Percent of Possible Points (figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).
Yards Per Play: Divided into Yards Per Rush (10 percent of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10 percent of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First Down Achievement: Divided into Total First Downs (10 percent of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10 percent of total).
MISFIRING OFFENSES
Team 2004 2005
Colts 94.4 75.3
Chiefs 92.4 83.1
Chargers 91.0 75.8
Vikings 88.7 43.9
Aikman Efficiency Ratings/Offense
Aikman NFL Team Rating
1. 3. Pittsburgh Steelers 106.0
2. 2. Philadelphia Eagles 91.8
3. 1. Cincinnati Bengals 88.6
4. 18. Dallas Cowboys 88.2
5. 6. Kansas City Chiefs 83.1
6. 26. New York Giants 82.8
7. 15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 82.0
8. 12. New England Patriots 80.8
9. 8. St. Louis Rams 79.6
10. 21. Carolina Panthers 79.4
11. 28 Chicago Bears 78.8
12. 13(t) Jacksonville Jaguars 76.3
13. 13. (t) Oakland Raiders 76.1
14. 27. San Diego Chargers 75.8
15. 20. Indianapolis Colts 75.3
16. 4. Cleveland Browns 74.4
17. 16. (t) Miami Dolphins 73.4
18. 5. Seattle Seahawks 72.3
19. 25. Atlanta Falcons 72.3
20. 32. Houston Texans 69.9
21. 11. Green Bay Packers 65.5
22. 16. (t) New York Jets 65.2
23. 30. Buffalo Bills 64.9
24. 7. New Orleans Saints 62.6
25. 9. Arizona Cardinals 61.8
26. 31. San Francisco 49ers 60.8
27. 22. Tennessee Titans 58.7
28. 23. Baltimore Ravens 57.4
29. 29. Detroit Lions 57.0
30. 19. Denver Broncos 55.6
31. 10. Washington Redskins 50.6
32. 24. Minnesota Vikings 43.9
Aikman Efficiency Ratings/Defense
Aikman NFL Team Rating
1. 7. Chicago Bears 112.5
2. 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 111.4
3. 29. New York Giants 97.2
4. 3. Philadelphia Eagles 94.7
5. 23. Cincinnati Bengals 93.3
6. 26. Kansas City Chiefs 91.6
7. 5. Pittsburgh Steelers 88.7
8. 24. (t) Indianpolis Colts 87.7
9. 6. Detroit Lions 86.7
10. 10. Miami Dolphins 86.4
11. 14. St. Louis Rams 85.5
12. 4. Washington Redskins 83.3
13. 9. Carolina Panthers 79.7
14. 18. Baltimore Ravens 79.6
15. 20. Dallas Cowboys 77.8
16. 13. Jacksonville Jaguars 77.8
17. 27. Atlanta Falcons 77.5
18. 17. New York Jets 77.0
19. 2. Buffalo Bills 73.7
20. 8. Arizona Cardinals 70.5
21. 16. New Orleans Saints 70.4
22. 21. Denver Broncos 69.4
23. 11. Seattle Seahawks 67.9
24. 19. San Diego Chargers 67.5
25. 15. Tennessee Titans 66.7
26. 30. Minnesota Vikings 66.7
27. 22. Green Bay Packers 63.2
28. 24. (t) Houston Texans 62.8
29. 31. Cleveland Browns 61.4
30. 12. New England Patriots 61.0
31. 28 Oakland Raiders 60.7
32. 32. San Francisco 49ers 53.5