Patriots @ Broncos - week 6

[Mile High Mania]

Ok ... I know this is a "Chiefs' Board", but I'm curious on your realistic thoughts on this game. Try to leave homer on the couch.

Denver has won a couple of ugly games, but a win is a win... the Pats are 3-2, but they've been hit hard with defensive injuries. Denver still has a lot to prove (to me at least) and hosting the Pats should be a fine test, even if it is in Denver.

The Pats are still dangerous, esp on offense, but I think the Denver defense will do a good job of containing the RBs. I have concerns with the young secondary against Branch and the rest of the receivers (and TEs). However, I do see the Denver rushing game having success, giving the passing game the opportunity to have a good game.

This game is a big concern for KC fans b/c it's two AFC teams sitting ahead of KC in the standings. Denver is a divisional foe sitting on a 2 game lead.

I predict a Denver win... something to the tune of:

Denver 27
Pats 20

What do you think?

[Mile High Mania]

6-3 ... interesting. What's the rationale?

[mlyonsd]

I'm afraid to say Denver is better than I thought they'd be. Plummer is playing well at home and the Pat's aren't the same team this year.

I voted for the Donkeys.

[Hammock Parties]

Depends if Bailey plays. If not, I like New England.

[BigMeatballDave]

6-3 ... interesting. What's the rationale?Your QB. Your 'D' being really good does not make up for your shitty QB. The Pats 'D', however not great, will confuse an already confused Plummer. I'm predicting a left-handed pick...

[Wile_E_Coyote]

we have learned over & over again, never underestimate the Pats

[dirk digler]

Pats will win even though Denver is alot better, especially on D, than I previously thought.

The rationale is the Pats have played 2 SB contenders on the road and won both of them.

[Mile High Mania]

I can agree with the statements made previously, but ... I just don't see them pulling off another huge road win.

Dillon hasn't looked great at all... the defense has holes. Schaub lit 'em up with that rag tag group of receivers, so I don't see Plummer/Smith/Lelie having an incredibly difficult time in Denver.

Plummer hasn't made that many mistakes this year... granted, I guess that means he is due, but I think the key here is again going to be that defense with or without Bailey.

[Mr. Laz]

i hope a big ol' bomb blows the crap outa both teams and all those dam donkey fans watching it.

[StcChief]

Depends if Bailey plays. If not, I like New England.What he said.

Pats are unpredicatable. I like Branch,Givens and TEs odds against your secondary. Dillon is a good runner, Brady smart QB.

Close 21-17 Pats

The real Jake comes out this week.

[HolmeZz]

It'll be close, but I'm gonna have to go with the Gaz option.

[Amnorix]

Figure a high-scoring affair. Pats offense is very underrated. It is one of the best of the league, and after being a bit dysfunctional the first couple of weeks, seems to be putting it together.

Our defense is spotty at best.

At this point, with no line, I'd put money (if forced to) on Denver. Back to back road wins against good teams are very hard to come by, especially when your defense is woefully inconsistent, as ours has been.

[Amnorix]

On the injury front, rumors are that Richard Seymour and Randall Gay (a terrific unknown CB) should be back this week.

[redfan]

I picked Den, but I'd like to know more about Dillon's status. If he plays, I'd say the Pats will be able to move the ball. Dillon had his first 100 yd game against a fairly stout Atl run D, and he's had some good games against the Den D. What's the word on Champ?
Pending the status of some D players, I say a high-scoring game with Den by a TD. 38-31

[cdcox]

I think this is a good matchup. If the Bronco's win they will be 5-1 and the Pats will be 3-3. If the Pats win, both teams will be 4-2. I think the latter better refelcts relative strength of the two teams. More often than not, the outcome of a game like this will tend to equalize the record of two evenly matched teams rather than making an already difference larger. So I'm guessing the Pats.

[Hammock Parties]

On the injury front, rumors are that Richard Seymour and Randall Gay (a terrific unknown CB) should be back this week.

I had no idea Seymour was out. He is a huge part of your pass rush.

[dirk digler]

I can agree with the statements made previously, but ... I just don't see them pulling off another huge road win.

Dillon hasn't looked great at all... the defense has holes. Schaub lit 'em up with that rag tag group of receivers, so I don't see Plummer/Smith/Lelie having an incredibly difficult time in Denver.

Plummer hasn't made that many mistakes this year... granted, I guess that means he is due, but I think the key here is again going to be that defense with or without Bailey.

While I tend to agree until the Pats prove me wrong I am sticking with them. The team continually keeps getting it done even through all of their injuries.

[Mile High Mania]

I had no idea Seymour was out.

I wish this shocked me...

Denver is a tough place to play b/c as guys like stevie say... Denver cheats and pays the refs well at home. I'm guessing Denver will get 2 penalties compared to 39 for the Pats.

The kicking game will be a huge factor here...

I don't underestimate the Pats offense at all. Brady is one of the few guys that can take a varying range of talent and bring the best out of them. Reminds me of some dude named John in that way.

By no means will this be a romp for either team... I think Denver will be favored by the standard 3 points for the home team. Weather won't matter as both teams can play in adverse conditions.

You'll see the RBBC in full force and that's about the only thing I'm sure of in this one. I really want to see Bailey back there b/c if he's not, then I see Branch having a big day. The LBs need to lock it down with the TEs and the Dline needs to play like they did against KC and keep Brady frustrated with pressure.

Break out the leash for Plummer... :)

[ceebz]

Pats. Brady should have a good game going against that secondary, and the bootleg offense doesn't work against real defenses.

[Amnorix]

I picked Den, but I'd like to know more about Dillon's status. If he plays, I'd say the Pats will be able to move the ball. Dillon had his first 100 yd game against a fairly stout Atl run D, and he's had some good games against the Den D. What's the word on Champ?
Pending the status of some D players, I say a high-scoring game with Den by a TD. 38-31

I've heard nothing that suggests Dillon will be out on Sunday.

Pats running woes were along the line/blocking, not tied to Dillon. Against a small/fast defense in Atlanta, our guys up front finally started to assert themselves. We'll see what we can do against the Denver D.

Agreed that it's probably quite high scoring.

[cdcox]

Reminds me of some dude named John in that way.



Unitas was a great one, no doubt.

[Amnorix]

I had no idea Seymour was out. He is a huge part of your pass rush.

Yeah, thanks. I know. :banghead:

Missed the Atlanta game, but should be back for the Broncos. We played Atlanta without Seymour, Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Rodney Harrison and Randall Gay. FIVE defensive starters from last year's Super Bowl. :shake:

[stevieray]

jeezus.

take this crap to the mange.

[Taco John]

I just don't see how we can win this one with our offense playing the way it has been...

[carlos3652]

Well this is a huge game for the Donkey's, it is a must win, (and you must be saying what have I been smoking they are 4-1 - but it is true).

The donkeys have finished 5-5 in the last 10 games of every season since 2001. Donkey's road games in this span:

@NY Giants
@Oakland
@Dallas
@KC
@Buffalo
@San Diego

At Home:

Philly
Jets
Baltimore
Oakland

I see them going 5-5 / 4-6 again - so this win will represent the 10/9 win season, if they dont get this win...

That being said, not sure NE can go back to back road games and pull it off, Plummer must make a mistake and the D must not have Champ, or play poorly with him.

I give Denver a 3 point win, but that being said this is NE, and they can beat anyone, anywhere...

Denver(h) beats SD + SD(h) Kills NE + NE beats Pit(h) + Pit beats SD(h) = Dever ties NE

Anyone want some of the herb im smokin...

[Ebolapox]

I want to say that the pats will clean their clocks--but, I can't bet against denver the way they're playing now

-EB-

[Amnorix]

Pats. Brady should have a good game going against that secondary, and the bootleg offense doesn't work against real defenses.

Right. My question is whether my team's defense is "real" or not. So far it hasn't been. Even the front 7 has been shaky, which is unusual for a Patriots defense. The secondary has been an abomination ever since Harrison went out.

Hopefully getting Randall Gay back (if we do) will really help shore things up. DB play has been atrocious.

[dirk digler]

I just don't see how we can win this one with our offense playing the way it has been...

I didn't realize it until you mentioned but you guys are ranked 21st in O.

You guys are ranked near the bottom in passing but are #2 rushing. No need to pass if you can run the ball.

[ceebz]

Right. My question is whether my team's defense is "real" or not. So far it hasn't been. Even the front 7 has been shaky, which is unusual for a Patriots defense. The secondary has been an abomination ever since Harrison went out.

Hopefully getting Randall Gay back (if we do) will really help shore things up. DB play has been atrocious.

The only receiving threat the donkeys have is Smith. Lelie can only run one pattern consistently, and then it's a coin flip as to whether or not he'll catch the ball.

Putzier's decent but, I expect the pats to make him a non-factor.

The key to this game will be how well the Pats pass protect against the donkeys blitz packages. They cannot generate a pass rush with their fron four so, they constantly blitz.

I expect Brady to eat them up.

[Amnorix]

If you're looking for what Denver does poorly, here's a nice summary:


"When Patriots head coach Bill Belichick arrives at the podium for his press conference tomorrow, he will likely detail all the things the Broncos do well.

So in an attempt to balance the slate a bit today, here are some areas the Broncos might be vulnerable:

* Passing yards per game –- 26th in the NFL (164.4). The question is if the low production in the passing game is attributed to the Broncos’ strong running game.

* Third down efficiency on offense –- 32nd in NFL (18 of 65, for 27 percent).

* Defensive sacks per pass attempt –- 28th in NFL (8 in 190 attempts).

* Kickoff return coverage –- 28th in NFL (26.2 yards allowed per return).

* Punt return coverage –- 26th in NFL (10.2 yards allowed per return).

* Passing yards allowed per game –- 25th in NFL (234.2)."

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/

[Taco John]

I didn't realize it until you mentioned but you guys are ranked 21st in O.

You guys are ranked near the bottom in passing but are #2 rushing. No need to pass if you can run the ball.



We're ranked dead last in third down efficiency. That's a concern when you're playing the league champs.

[Amnorix]

We're ranked dead last in third down efficiency. That's a concern when you're playing the league champs.


Be interesting to see what happens when the "unmoving force" meets the "resistable object". Pats third down defense has been pretty bad all year. It was a *smidge* better against Atlanta, but...

[Eleazar]

Pats with a healthy 70%/30% lead in the polls so far.

[vailpass]

Sloppy special teams, inconsistent 3rd down conversions, and a one-threat passing attack will not get it done against the defending SB champs.

If Denver wins this game its because Shanny and staff got every Bronco to focus harder than they have all season to eliminate mistakes and play with ferocity.
Bailey must play. Plummer must throw accurate passes downfield.
IMHO This game will be the first true measuring stick as to how good the Broncos really are. IF they can win this game the Chiefs and Chargers will start to feel pressure.

I guess there is no Gaz option for filthy Bronco posts??

[ZepSinger]

Due to their 5 layers of security protection, I give this one to the Pats.

Even though they are metaphors.

[Mile High Mania]

There's no question that Denver can expect to play with offensive production like they've had recently. Lelie needs to have a 'code orange' (red just wouldn't work here) on his ass about catching the damn ball.

The Patriots' defense has been eaten up by TE's in recent games... I expect to see a game plan that uses a healthy mix of Alexander and Putzier. Maybe even the 300 lb "house" on tackle eligible plays... who knows.

The defending champs are limping and that's a good time to attack and stand on their throats in this game. Give Brady time and keep the game close and Adam will seal the deal.

The defense needs to attack in full force.

[beer bacon]

30-27 Patriots. Patriots defense isn't what it was last year, but their offense is still great. Late drive by Brady puts the game away.

[joesomebody]

Vinitierri or however you spell it is gonna clutch one through as usual...

27-24 Pats...

I wanted to go with Denver at first, but then I realized I've been wrong on just about every game I've felt pretty sure of all year so I'm trying not to go with my first instinct now...

Denver is way better than I expected them to be this year though

[Extra Point]

Pats by 17. This weekend will be one that throws the books all the way out the window.

[keg in kc]

I'm projecting Denver to win 2 of their next 3. If they lose one at home, I think it'll be New England rather than Philadelphia. I don't have a real good read on the game, though.

Then in the second half of the year, the wheels should come off. I'm expecting a 3-5 finish, as they hit the road-heavy portion of their schedule (at Oakland, Dallas, KC, Buffalo and San Diego).

Which could still win them the division.

[Hammock Parties]

I think New England and Philadelphia are going to expose Denver.

Especially Philly.

And that trip to New York will be no cakewalk.

[vailpass]

I think New England and Philadelphia are going to expose Denver.

Especially Philly.

And that trip to New York will be no cakewalk.


Expose Denver for what? What is it you think there is to expose?

[Hammock Parties]

Expose Denver for what? What is it you think there is to expose?

Your overrated defense, for starters.

[Amnorix]

There's no question that Denver can expect to play with offensive production like they've had recently. Lelie needs to have a 'code orange' (red just wouldn't work here) on his ass about catching the damn ball.

The Patriots' defense has been eaten up by TE's in recent games... I expect to see a game plan that uses a healthy mix of Alexander and Putzier. Maybe even the 300 lb "house" on tackle eligible plays... who knows.

The defending champs are limping and that's a good time to attack and stand on their throats in this game. Give Brady time and keep the game close and Adam will seal the deal.

The defense needs to attack in full force.

err...the TEs that waxed us were GOOD. Actually, Crumpler and f'n Gates are about as good as they get, other than that Gonzo guy the Chiefs have.

Your two guys might have a career day for them, but that's what? 3 catches for 50 yards? :p

[Mile High Mania]

err...the TEs that waxed us were GOOD. Actually, Crumpler and f'n Gates are about as good as they get, other than that Gonzo guy the Chiefs have.

Your two guys might have a career day for them, but that's what? 3 catches for 50 yards? :p

In addition to Crumpler and Gates ... Courtney Anderson of the Raiduhz only had 3 catches for 18 yards... but 2 of those were TDs. CA didn't have the yardage, but he did what matters - scored twice.

Denver has two very capable TEs... I wouldn't exactly write 'em off as spares.

[Mile High Mania]

I think New England and Philadelphia are going to expose Denver.

Especially Philly.

And that trip to New York will be no cakewalk.


Yeah... after watching what Dallas did to them on Sunday and looking at how much pain Donovan was in the entire game... I'm feeling a little better about that game in a few weeks.

McNabb is going to have surgery at some point. He is avoiding it now b/c he has mentioned it will put him out for as many as 6 weeks. That's a big deal... he's playing through immense pain right now and that is not helping the team.

[Amnorix]

In addition to Crumpler and Gates ... Courtney Anderson of the Raiduhz only had 3 catches for 18 yards... but 2 of those were TDs. CA didn't have the yardage, but he did what matters - scored twice.

Denver has two very capable TEs... I wouldn't exactly write 'em off as spares.


There's a very serious and significant difference between what Gates and Crumpler did to the Patriots, and what Anderson did. Scoring obviously matters, but the first two killed us, and Anderson did not.

Besides our entire red zone defense has been abysmal.

[Straight, No Chaser]

Your overrated defense, for starters.

Hey, do you even know what overrated means ?


--->

[Amnorix]

FWiW, from today's Boston Globe:

"Running back Corey Dillon, who didn't finish Sunday's game against the Falcons, walked through the locker room without trouble Monday and doesn't appear to have sustained a serious injury ."

[Mile High Mania]

I don't doubt that Dillon will play, but he has looked a bit slow and fat at times. I know he has like 5 TDs are something, but IIRC his YPC is down below 4, right - less than 400 yards rushing through 5 games. He doesn't look like he did in 2004.

[ROYC75]

Denver pulled out a gutty win in Jax. and almost allowed Wash. to sneakout a win. Denver has issues, but Philly and NE still have many issues.

Toss up ....... Even money.

[Amnorix]

I don't doubt that Dillon will play, but he has looked a bit slow and fat at times. I know he has like 5 TDs are something, but IIRC his YPC is down below 4, right - less than 400 yards rushing through 5 games. He doesn't look like he did in 2004.

Believe me, it's the OLine, not Dillon. Dillon's fine. It's the OLine that has sucked.

That seemed to start coming together last week versus Atlanta. Hopefully it continues.

(edit to note that Dillon had a 4.6 YPC last week vs. the Falcons).

Also note that the defenses the Pats have played have been pretty good against the rush:

Carolina 3.3 YPC (4th)
Oakland 3.4 YPC (6th)
SD 3.6 YPC (8th)
Steelers 3.6 YPC (11th)

then we busted it open against Atlanta, which is at a woeful 4.6 YPC and 28th in the NFL.

Denver is slightly above average in run defense, at 3.8 YPC and 13th in the NFL. We shall see what happens there.

[Bowser]

This is one of those games that I would avoid putting money on.

The Pats have GOT TO blitz Plummer due to all the problems they've had in their secondary, so Jake is going to have to make good quick reads on his first two receivers. Is he up to it, after his 10-25 92 yard performance at home last week?

Denver CANNOT blitz Brady. He will absolutely tear them up. Look for Denver to regularly drop seven or eight guys in coverage. Denvers' D seems to get up a little more when they are at home, so that could be a factor.

Patriots > offense
Denver > defesne
Patriots > special teams (Vinatieri)
Patriots > coaching (remember the safety Belichick took at Denver a few years back?)

It's going to be close. Whether it's high scoring, or ground it out scoring, the winner is going to win by a field goal or less.

[HolmeZz]

FWiW, from today's Boston Globe:

"Running back Corey Dillon, who didn't finish Sunday's game against the Falcons, walked through the locker room without trouble Monday and doesn't appear to have sustained a serious injury ."

Too bad you can only simulate our defense by walking through a locker room.

[Mile High Mania]

Denver has been pretty good against the run, Portis ran with success in the bad weather but other than that... they've been solid. The Falcons have been giving up rushing yards a lot.

It will be a tough game, no doubt.

[Amnorix]

Denver has been pretty good against the run, Portis ran with success in the bad weather but other than that... they've been solid. The Falcons have been giving up rushing yards a lot.

It will be a tough game, no doubt.

If you have two rookie corners going again, I'd think the Brady and his crew of little scatback receivers will be a bigger problem for you than Mr. Dillon.

[TEX]

Wow, Denver gets another HOME game...Has anyone else played 4 home games out of 6 this season? :hmmm:

Because it's in Invesco, I'll say the Donx win it.

[Mile High Mania]

Wow, Denver gets another HOME game...Has anyone else played 4 home games out of 6 this season? :hmmm:

Because it's in Invesco, I'll say the Donx win it.

Well, it's not like they don't pay the price on the road after the bye week... it evens out.

[Mile High Mania]

If you have two rookie corners going again, I'd think the Brady and his crew of little scatback receivers will be a bigger problem for you than Mr. Dillon.

Again - I never count out Brady and his WRs even with Bailey. I'm hoping the Dline and LBs force Brady to run around more than he likes. Hell, I'd be fine if they show him how 'soft' the field is a number of times.

[TEX]

Well, it's not like they don't pay the price on the road after the bye week... it evens out.


Sure, mathmatically it does. But sometime realistically it doesn't. Things are different in the end of the year. It's not so much who you play as it is when and where.

[Hoover]

I'm picking NE not because I think they are great, but because I think Denver is in for a slight light let up.

I think the Bronco can win the West if Bell becomes the explosie back we all thought he would be when drafted. Until he can be counted on to carry the load, I think the Bronco's a 9-7 team.

[redfan]

FWiW, from today's Boston Globe:

"Running back Corey Dillon, who didn't finish Sunday's game against the Falcons, walked through the locker room without trouble Monday and doesn't appear to have sustained a serious injury ."

That's good to hear. For some reason, I'd heard he was a little nicked up. I still like Den, 34-30. Den is tough at home, and the Pats are reeling a bit right now.

[digi2fish]

nothing but a doncos loss :D