LJ's long-term value?

[cmh6476]

while watching the probowl the other day and hearing about Edge and SA's current situations, it made me wonder how much value LJ would have right now if he were an UFA.

I think Mortensen alluded to the fact that teams aren't so eager to give longterm backs to guys who have been around as long as Edge, even though he's fairly young.

So my question is, where would LJ rank as far as long-term signing value at this point in his career compared to other backs. Would he be as valuable as Edge or SA if he were in their current situation?

[Pitt Gorilla]

while watching the probowl the other day and hearing about Edge and SA's current situations, it made me wonder how much value LJ would have right now if he were an UFA.

I think Mortensen alluded to the fact that teams aren't so eager to give longterm backs to guys who have been around as long as Edge, even though he's fairly young.

So my question is, where would LJ rank as far as long-term signing value at this point in his career compared to other backs. Would he be as valuable as Edge or SA if he were in their current situation?Right now, he'd probably be more valuable. Although he doesn't block as well as Edge and doesn't have the vision (yet) of SA, his potential, experience, and fewer miles make him more valuable, IMO. I'm glad we have him for a while.

[keg in kc]

People, national people not locals, are regularly calling him one of the 2-3 best backs in the game. He'd have a load of value right now.

[jspchief]

I don't think he'd have considerably more value than those guys.
I don't think it's as much about their age as it is about teams feeling that the RB position isn't worthy of huge FA money. There are good RBs available in the draft every year, and they can even be found in later rounds. Beyond that, I think most teams don't think the difference between the best back in the league, and the 15th best back in the league is that big of a difference. The Steelers just won a Superbowl with a nobody and a fatass at RB.

[htismaqe]

I don't think he'd have considerably more value than those guys.
I don't think it's as much about their age as it is about teams feeling that the RB position isn't worthy of huge FA money. There are good RBs available in the draft every year, and they can even be found in later rounds. Beyond that, I think most teams don't think the difference between the best back in the league, and the 15th best back in the league is that big of a difference. The Steelers just won a Superbowl with a nobody and a fatass at RB.

Yep.

[Hootie]

running backs are a dime a dozen.

There are only a few elite running backs that are gamebreakers, LJ being one of them.

However, I still think the system has a big influence on the back, any back. If LJ were in Arizona, would he be any good? Who knows.

But comparing LJ to LT or others is pointless because it would make for an endless debate.

[Smed1065]

running backs are a dime a dozen.

There are only a few elite running backs that are gamebreakers, LJ being one of them.

However, I still think the system has a big influence on the back, any back. If LJ were in Arizona, would he be any good? Who knows.

But comparing LJ to LT or others is pointless because it would make for an endless debate.


A debate?

Maybe it would

Maybe it wouldnt.

:)

[cmh6476]

running backs are a dime a dozen.

There are only a few elite running backs that are gamebreakers, LJ being one of them.

However, I still think the system has a big influence on the back, any back. If LJ were in Arizona, would he be any good? Who knows.

But comparing LJ to LT or others is pointless because it would make for an endless debate.


i think looking at it as who has more value to certain clubs in a certain point in their career can be argued, as oppossed to simply saying one is better than the other.

[KCJake]

The Steelers just won a Superbowl with a nobody and a fatass at RB.
True

[cdcox]

I don't think he'd have considerably more value than those guys.
I don't think it's as much about their age as it is about teams feeling that the RB position isn't worthy of huge FA money. There are good RBs available in the draft every year, and they can even be found in later rounds. Beyond that, I think most teams don't think the difference between the best back in the league, and the 15th best back in the league is that big of a difference. The Steelers just won a Superbowl with a nobody and a fatass at RB.

Since this seems to be the prevailing early thought on this tread, I'll give a couple reasons its an over simplification:

1. Reggie Bush
1a. Cadillac Williams

Those top 5 draft picks are considered gold. There are maybe 20 guys in the league that you could trade straight up for a top 5 pic. The fact that teams are investing top 5 picks in RB, is proof that NFL teams will invest in a someone they perceive to be a game-changing back. Given LJ's proven ability, and the fact that he is a relatively low milage, I think he'd do a heck of a lot better than Alexander or Edge on the open FA market. Those guys are looking at a couple more productive seasons, then they are going to go into decline. Barring injury or overuse, LJ could have 4-5 more years of elite back status before he goes into decline. His value to teams should be roughly 2x the value of SA or EJ.

LJ, in conjunction with our offensive line, is the main reason that I have any optimism for the up coming season. It is the only strength of the team that has the potential to make a difference.

[jidar]

RBs are prized as highly as any other position save QB.

LJ right now would be worth as much as any back in the league right now imo just due to his low milage, however it's not as much as you might think.

I think it's more that teams are just afraid of breaking the bank on any one player these days, everyone has learned that it takes more than just plugging in a superstar to have a good team.

[jspchief]

Since this seems to be the prevailing early thought on this tread, I'll give a couple reasons its an over simplification:

1. Reggie Bush
1a. Cadillac Williams

Those top 5 draft picks are considered gold. There are maybe 20 guys in the league that you could trade straight up for a top 5 pic. The fact that teams are investing top 5 picks in RB, is proof that NFL teams will invest in a someone they perceive to be a game-changing back. Given LJ's proven ability, and the fact that he is a relatively low milage, I think he'd do a heck of a lot better than Alexander or Edge on the open FA market. Those guys are looking at a couple more productive seasons, then they are going to go into decline. Barring injury or overuse, LJ could have 4-5 more years of elite back status before he goes into decline. His value to teams should be roughly 2x the value of SA or EJ.

LJ, in conjunction with our offensive line, is the main reason that I have any optimism for the up coming season. It is the only strength of the team that has the potential to make a difference.Edgerrin James and Shawn Alexander are going to want bigger contracts than what those rookies are getting.

It is an over simplification, but it's also pretty spot on. Age factors in certainly, better to pay a younger player with less miles. But there's also a general feeling around the league that runningbacks are replaceable. Especially if you're a team where the run is secondary to the pass, like Indy or Seattle. Some teams probably would really covet LJ, but a lot of teams aren't going to shell out a monster contract for a RB.

Would LJ garner more money? Yes, I'm sure he would. Would it be significantly more? I don't think so, and certainly not 2x.