XM radio news ........... possibly bad news.

[Kylo Ren]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060216/bs_nm/media_xmsatellite_earns_dc_2

I have a couple of comments about this article.
1. Sirus paid way too much for Stern.
2. Thank God XM signed Oprah !!!! Who cares that Sirus picked up the NFL contract. As long as we have Oprah.......... !!! :rolleyes:

Maybe XM can get the NFL Network since they lost the contract for NFL games. That would be better than nothing. Right now they have MLB, NHL, the Big 10, ACC, PAC 10 and other college conferences. I'd trade them all for the NFL.

[Hoover]

I'd rather have 162 MLB games than the NFL.

I watch the nfl.

[Taco John]

Sirius > XM

[Simplex3]

Sirius > XM
He should know, he owns Sirius stock. That way you know his opinion isn't biased.

[RickObie]

It probably doesn't matter which is better, wouldn't surprise me if they merged eventually.

[Saulbadguy]

I'd rather have 162 MLB games than the NFL.

I watch the nfl.
Same here. I've only been in the "Can't watch, can't listen" situation while i've been driving for a Chiefs game.

[sedated]

hmm, sirius has stern and NFL
XM has baseball and oprah.

is there even a decision here?
men buy sirius, p^ssies buy XM

[Eleazar]

Same here. I've only been in the "Can't watch, can't listen" situation while i've been driving for a Chiefs game.

The only time I can't watch or listen to an NFL game is if it's out of market on sunday afternoon - the Sunday night and Monday night games are already on 810 and can be tuned in all over the area. And on Sunday afternoons most every week I'm watching the Chiefs so I wouldn't use it anyway.

[Sully]

I have had sirius for 2 years, and liked it. Now that Stern is on I have been getting into listening to that, and it's not too bad.
My thinking in choosing Sirius was flawed, though, as I only got it for the NFL. I didn't bother to think that when football is on I am NEVER in the car (unless driving home from a game, in which case I am usually listening to post-game. If I had to choose again, and wasn't hooked on Stern, I would probably choose XM due to NHL, and a couple of other stations they have.

[BigMeatballDave]

hmm, sirius has stern and NFL
XM has baseball and oprah.

is there even a decision here?
men buy sirius, p^ssies buy XMheh. I bought XM because the recievers are less expensive. I wanted to listen to music in my car, not people ****ing yaking.

[Jenny Gump]

hmm, sirius has stern and NFL
XM has baseball and oprah.

is there even a decision here?
men buy sirius, p^ssies buy XM

I guess I'm a p*ssy then. I've only had it for two days...not sure what worth it will bring to my life yet.

[jidar]

The Stern deal ended up being the right move. It sounds hard to believe but I read a post mortem analysis on it and Sirius more than made up the cost in new subscribers and exposure that was directly related to that deal. They saw a huge spike in new subscribers per day immediately after news of the deal broke and that spike has continued to this day.

[Saulbadguy]

hmm, sirius has stern and NFL
XM has baseball and oprah.

is there even a decision here?
men buy sirius, p^ssies buy XM
I love baseball. Don't care for Stern or Oprah. Bought XM before any of this happened. I'd probably rethink my decision if I had to buy again, but I think i'd still get XM. I've grown attached to certain music channels.

[HemiEd]

I bought a Sirius this year for a couple of reasons. Almost all of the Chiefs games were carried locally this year on Network TV. They would then black out the Direct TV broadcast. More than once they would cut to a closer or what they deemed to be a more interesting game. :cuss: At least now I can go out to the car and listen to the game.

[Swanman]

hmm, sirius has stern and NFL
XM has baseball and oprah.

is there even a decision here?
men buy sirius, p^ssies buy XM

XM has MLB, which is 100x more useful than NFL. They also have the NHL (for the 3 people left that watch hockey) and contracts with the ACC, Big Ten and PAC 10 for college basketball and football, so XM wins by a landslide in the sports department. The only item that Sirius has that I would really like is all of the NCAA Tournament games, which is really cool.

XM has Opie and Anthony, which = funnier than Stern, so they win there as well.

XM is about 8 years ahead of Sirius in technology (Sirius still doesn't have a true "walkman" type player, XM is already introducing their second generation players).

And you forgot to mention that Sirius has Martha Stewart, now who's the p*ssy?

[Saulbadguy]

The only item that Sirius has that I would really like is all of the NCAA Tournament games, which is really cool.


I read somewhere that you can watch all the NCAA tourney games online now, for free.

[jidar]

XM has MLB, which is 100x more useful than NFL. They also have the NHL (for the 3 people left that watch hockey) and contracts with the ACC, Big Ten and PAC 10 for college basketball and football, so XM wins by a landslide in the sports department. The only item that Sirius has that I would really like is all of the NCAA Tournament games, which is really cool.

XM has Opie and Anthony, which = funnier than Stern, so they win there as well.

XM is about 8 years ahead of Sirius in technology (Sirius still doesn't have a true "walkman" type player, XM is already introducing their second generation players).

And you forgot to mention that Sirius has Martha Stewart, now who's the p*ssy?


Sirius is making money, XM is in a death spiral.

[The Bad Guy]

XM has MLB, which is 100x more useful than NFL. They also have the NHL (for the 3 people left that watch hockey) and contracts with the ACC, Big Ten and PAC 10 for college basketball and football, so XM wins by a landslide in the sports department. The only item that Sirius has that I would really like is all of the NCAA Tournament games, which is really cool.

XM has Opie and Anthony, which = funnier than Stern, so they win there as well.

XM is about 8 years ahead of Sirius in technology (Sirius still doesn't have a true "walkman" type player, XM is already introducing their second generation players).

And you forgot to mention that Sirius has Martha Stewart, now who's the p*ssy?

Ha. Those hacks are funnier than Stern?

Even Bubba the Love Sponge is better. I'd actually rather listen to Martha Stewart than O&A.

I've had both services and Sirius wins hands down.

[Chief Pote]

I guess I'm a p*ssy then. I've only had it for two days...not sure what worth it will bring to my life yet.

You are what you have Jenny. Hmmm.... don't you start calling me names.

[Taco John]

He should know, he owns Sirius stock. That way you know his opinion isn't biased.


You telling me that NFL and Howard sterns isn't better than Oprah?

[Baby Lee]

I have a couple of comments about this article.
1. Sirus paid way too much for Stern.
2. Thank God XM signed Oprah !!!! Who cares that Sirus picked up the NFL contract. As long as we have Oprah.......... !!! :rolleyes:
I really hope that was sarcasm. Left my meter at home.
Stern has already justified his contract, and he's been there 2 months.
Oprah will actually be on her station 1/2 hour A WEEK. And she's declined to even syndicate her old shows to the channel.

[Eleazar]

Ha. Those hacks are funnier than Stern?


I think that all these talk radio hacks are equally unfunny.

[Nzoner]

I got sirius for Christmas and although I can never see myself using it to listen to an NFL game I do love their NFL channel,especially The Afternoon Blitz with John Riggins.

Other than that the only 2 stations that get used much are Maxim Radio and The Vault.

[Kylo Ren]

I shouldn't complain so much. I love my XM. I think it is far, far better than Sirus as a total package. Their channels are better. Their technology is better. I was just dissappointed that they didn't get the NFL. I want an NFL channel on XM. I want to be able to listen to the latest NFL news any time, any place. Also, if I'm on the road and a game is on, I want to listen to it. I don't even care who's playing. But you all are right. If XM carried the NFL, it wouldn't matter for Chiefs games. I never miss watching the Chiefs play. So, I would never listen to them on the radio.

[Kylo Ren]

BTW -- Stern is a jackass. I can't stand that bastard.

[Swanman]

Sirius is making money, XM is in a death spiral.

That's funny, their most recent SEC filing seems to disagree with you. For the nine months ended 9/30/05, Sirius lost $550 million. Their fourth quarter will improve things due to the one-time spike in subs because of Stern, but they'll still lose a boatload for the year.

Over the same time period, XM lost around $400 million, so I'd say the two companies may be in about the same financial shape at 12/31/05. But then you have to remember that Sirius is going to get nailed for $100 million bucks next year to pay the has-been's salary.

And XM's stock is still trading around 5x higher than Sirius, even after the bad earnings report.

[Saulbadguy]

I think that all these talk radio hacks are equally unfunny.
Yes. :clap:

[ChiefsfaninPA]

XM is about 8 years ahead of Sirius in technology (Sirius still doesn't have a true "walkman" type player, XM is already introducing their second generation players).


Incorrect. Sirius has the S50 which is totally portable and hands down better than any portable XM to go receiver. I was comparing both of them before I bought the S50. The S50 puts there equipment to shame.

[cadmonkey]

If Oprah is a reason to go to XM you are getting scammed. She is only going to be on the air for 30 minutes a week, not a day, a week.

[Jmart]

Incorrect. Sirius has the S50 which is totally portable and hands down better than any portable XM to go receiver. I was comparing both of them before I bought the S50. The S50 puts there equipment to shame.
But you can only listen to recorded content "on the go" with the Sirius player while you can listen live or recorded with the XM2Go player.

[Swanman]

Incorrect. Sirius has the S50 which is totally portable and hands down better than any portable XM to go receiver. I was comparing both of them before I bought the S50. The S50 puts there equipment to shame.

That's what Sirius wants you to believe, but answer me one question: Can you pick up a live satellite signal with the S50? The answer is no, you have to record stuff to the unit and then you can listen to the recorded material. XM's portable units receive live broadcasts (as well as the ability to record things on the go Tivo-style), and in March they will be releasing portable units that are about the same size as an Ipod.

[Eleazar]

That's what Sirius wants you to believe, but answer me one question: Can you pick up a live satellite signal with the S50? The answer is no, you have to record stuff to the unit and then you can listen to the recorded material. XM's portable units receive live broadcasts (as well as the ability to record things on the go Tivo-style), and in March they will be releasing portable units that are about the same size as an Ipod.

What good is a portable player if it doesn't pick up live broadcasts? How is it any different than a regular mp3 player or whatever? Just that it has a Sirius or XM sticker on it? :spock:

[ChiefsfaninPA]

That's what Sirius wants you to believe, but answer me one question: Can you pick up a live satellite signal with the S50? The answer is no, you have to record stuff to the unit and then you can listen to the recorded material. XM's portable units receive live broadcasts (as well as the ability to record things on the go Tivo-style), and in March they will be releasing portable units that are about the same size as an Ipod.

That is true, but in my experience dealing with there XM to go (my brother has a one) the reception is spotty at best when being used portable. You more often than not are trying to aquire a signal and actually not receiving a live signal. Unless you are somewhere stationary it it useless.

[Bob Dole]

I really hope that was sarcasm. Left my meter at home.
Stern has already justified his contract, and he's been there 2 months.


Really? Stern has already brought in $500 million in guaranteed revenue?

That's pretty impressive.

[kc1977]

And XM's stock is still trading around 5x higher than Sirius, even after the bad earnings report.

Completely False. Sirius' market Cap is 7.6B and XM's is 5.3B. Stock price is dependent on the number of shares issued. XMSR has 222.2 Million shares outstanding. SIRI has 1.331B shares outstanding. You can't just compare stock price to stock price and think that the comparison is meaningful.

[Nzoner]

Really? Stern has already brought in $500 million in guaranteed revenue?

That's pretty impressive.

According to a show I was listening to sirius picked up enough new subscribers the week prior to Stern going on to pay his contract.

[Baby Lee]

Really? Stern has already brought in $500 million in guaranteed revenue?

That's pretty impressive.
Here's an existing discussion on the matter

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htforum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=250385

Further, there were widespread reports in the weeks leading up to his launch that additional sales were being postponed due to unit shortages. And I can testify that, while my parents got me the unit for X-mas [bought back on Black Friday], when I went to look for a home dock, there were a lot of empty space where units used to be, and I had to go to about 5 stores before I found a home dock [found by calling around after the first 4 shot craps].

[ChiefsfaninPA]

Completely False. Sirius' market Cap is 7.6B and XM's is 5.3B. Stock price is dependent on the number of shares issued. XMSR has 222.2 Million shares outstanding. SIRI has 1.331B shares outstanding. You can't just compare stock price to stock price and think that the comparison is meaningful.

None of these numbers matter until these companies start making money. Without earning I could care less what your business does. As a shareholder I want to see earnings. If I want to gamble I will hit Vegas or try and straddle google.

[Swanman]

That is true, but in my experience dealing with there XM to go (my brother has a one) the reception is spotty at best when being used portable. You more often than not are trying to aquire a signal and actually not receiving a live signal. Unless you are somewhere stationary it it useless.

It really depends where you're located and if there are a lot of towers around, just like cellphone service. Someone I work with uses it jogging and never has problems. But at least the XM units give you the ability to listen to live broadcasts if you're lucky enough to pull them in.

The main difference between the 2 companies is basically Sirius spent a lot of their money acquiring talent (Stern and Martha Stewart) while XM spent less on acquiring talent and more on researching new technologies. It's way too early too tell which decision was better, but I'm obviously putting my money on XM.

[Kylo Ren]

XM > Siruis ~

[Swanman]

Completely False. Sirius' market Cap is 7.6B and XM's is 5.3B. Stock price is dependent on the number of shares issued. XMSR has 222.2 Million shares outstanding. SIRI has 1.331B shares outstanding. You can't just compare stock price to stock price and think that the comparison is meaningful.

I look at the figures from a different perspective. If both XM and Sirius need to go back to the public markets to raise capital (which they both probably will), XM will be able to do so at over $20/share while Sirius will only get around $6/share.

[Bob Dole]

Here's an existing discussion on the matter

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htforum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=250385

Further, there were widespread reports in the weeks leading up to his launch that additional sales were being postponed due to unit shortages. And I can testify that, while my parents got me the unit for X-mas [bought back on Black Friday], when I went to look for a home dock, there were a lot of empty space where units used to be, and I had to go to about 5 stores before I found a home dock [found by calling around after the first 4 shot craps].

There already too many forums on this site, why the hell would Bob Dole want to click on a forum on another one?

$500 million is a lot of subscriptions. Like Bob Dole said...if he did indeed bring in $500 million (his total contract) worth of subs, that's pretty impressive.

[The Bad Guy]

XM > Siruis ~

Nice spelling.

With your support, I would imagine XM is doomed to fail now.

[sedated]

This is exactly why I haven't invested in either.

Half the people say Sirius is far superior, the other half says XM is superior.

Having an Stern, NFL channel, and NCAA tourney games seems to make the decision easier for me, but I watch all my sports and I'm still not sure after reading this thread.

[Hoover]

plus xm has all the espn stations so during the season there is plenty to listen too

[|Zach|]

I think they are both pretty good services...having said that why is the NFL such deal breaker. I could care less who is carrying the NFL on sat. radio when I am sitting down and watching a game.

[Swanman]

There already too many forums on this site, why the hell would Bob Dole want to click on a forum on another one?

$500 million is a lot of subscriptions. Like Bob Dole said...if he did indeed bring in $500 million (his total contract) worth of subs, that's pretty impressive.

He definitely didn't bring in $500 million in cash, that would require divine intervention. Basically, to pay his salary, they have to add just over 600,000 subscribers (600,000 x 12.95 (monthly price) x 12 = around $100 million). Since Sirius has added well over that number, they say they have paid his salary. But that assumes they will keep all of those subs over the life of his 5-year contract. 5 years is a long time in this new of an industry.

[Baby Lee]

There already too many forums on this site, why the hell would Bob Dole want to click on a forum on another one?

$500 million is a lot of subscriptions. Like Bob Dole said...if he did indeed bring in $500 million (his total contract) worth of subs, that's pretty impressive.
In the interest of resting BD's 'clickin' finger.'
670K Subscribers (in 3 years of service) before Stern announced he was coming to Sirius, 4 million now.. Was it Martha Stewart or Richard Simmons that brought them all in ?

Now lets do the math

Lets say that Stern only brought in 2.5 million subscribers and that NOT 1 more subsriber will come to Sirius because of Stern.

That means that in one month Stern brought in 37.5 million in subscriber dollars, in 12 months he brought in 450 million, this doesnt include advertising dollars either for his channels which do charge a premium.

Now his deal was a reported 500 Million (which was not in cash) so please explain how signing Stern wasnt an incredible deal ?

[Baby Lee]

Basically, to pay his salary, they have to add just over 600,000 subscribers. . . Since Sirius has added well over that number, they say they have paid his salary. But that assumes they will keep all of those subs over the life of his 5-year contract. 5 years is a long time in this new of an industry.
if 'well over' means nearing 3 MILLION over that number.

670,000 - 4,000,000 since Howard announced his move.

[blackhawk]

Playboy Radio starts around Feb 15 on SIRIUS 198
FIRST ON GSI
Here is some info on Playboy Radio kicking off SOON on SIRIUS!!!Playboy Radio launches in the next few weeks on Sirius Satellite Radio - channel 198. Launching in phases and with a 24/7 station that has a very robust and ambitious line up of shows. Lets break it down the info by categories.
Bubba The Love Sponge: Interview
Corey Deitz talked with Bubba The Love Sponge in an Exclusive interview on about.com.
Deitz ask Bubba about life after he was kicked off radio. Bubba talks about how he had an ongoing open dialog with SIRIUS...and then after he met Howard [Stern] on November 30 of ‘04, Howard told Bubba to his face - "man to man" - “Trust me. It’ll work out. I’ll make it happen.” And it did. You can read all 3 parts of this interview on about.com Bubba is also the searched-for radio personality right now at About.com
"Calvin and Me" Comedy Sports Show to SIRIUS
Calvin Murphy makes his comeback on Sirius Radio Channel 122 in a big way with a fresh and new sports/comedy weekly radio/TV show scheduled to begin production at the Fox Sports Grille in Houston titled "Calvin and Me". The two-hour radio program will air weekly on Saturdays @ 1-3pm EST. There will be one rebroadcast during the week. The radio Show will air via Sirius Ch. 122/Sports ByLine.

Calvin Murphy is an NBA Hall of Famer and National Baton Twirling Teenage Champion, Calvin is now known for his fast tongue and classy dressing.

[blackhawk]

Blue Collar brand expands to satellite radio with SIRIUS SIRIUS Channel builds on Blue Collar's blockbuster performance in movies, CDs, TV, DVDs, concerts and books
Feb 01, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) and Parallel Entertainment today announced the launch of Blue Collar Comedy, a new channel on SIRIUS, featuring the Blue Collar Comedy comedians Jeff Foxworthy, Larry the Cable Guy, and Bill Engvall, as well as many others.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19991118/NYTH125 )

The new Blue Collar Comedy channel, jointly produced and programmed by Parallel Entertainment and SIRIUS, is expected to begin airing in mid-to-late March on SIRIUS channel 103. This date coincides with production on the latest film starring the Blue Collar comedians, Blue Collar Comedy Tour: One for the Road. The film is based on a series of performances at The Warner Theater in Washington DC.

In addition, SIRIUS and Parallel will program a block of Blue Collar Comedy for SIRIUS' Truckers, channel 147. As part of the relationship, Blue Collar Comedy on SIRIUS will be heavily promoted on the front of CDs and DVDs, at Blue Collar comedian performances, as well as on the home pages of comedians' web sites and through mailings to their fans.

Blue Collar Comedy has achieved enormous success across movies, tours, CDs, TV programming, and books, playing to sold-out audiences, generating blockbusters sales, and producing record audience ratings. The original Blue Collar Comedy Tour grossed more than $15 million. Blue Collar Comedy Tour, The Movie, was the highest rated movie in Comedy Central's history at the time and the DVD has sold more than 4 million units. The second movie, Blue Collar Comedy Tour Rides Again, was the 3rd highest rated show in Comedy Central's history and the DVD has sold more than 3 million units.

"Blue Collar Comedy joins an unmatched group of leading brands that have chosen SIRIUS to enter satellite radio," said Scott Greenstein, SIRIUS President of Sports and Entertainment. "SIRIUS will bring Blue Collar's original brand of humor to millions of fans, from the smallest towns to the biggest cities, any place in the country."

"Blue Collar Comedy is an attitude, a point-of-view style of comedy that appeals to everyone. SIRIUS has reintroduced some of the greatest comedians of all time to new audiences, and with Blue Collar Comedy will open up new generations to this popular style of comic expression," said J.P. Williams, CEO of Parallel Entertainment. "Parallel is thrilled to become part of a strong comedy lineup on SIRIUS."

Recently, Parallel completed its third feature length project, Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector, for theatrical release in 2006.

[|Zach|]

Wow, blue collar...thats just awful.

[kc1977]

I look at the figures from a different perspective. If both XM and Sirius need to go back to the public markets to raise capital (which they both probably will), XM will be able to do so at over $20/share while Sirius will only get around $6/share.

Ok - I'll try to educate you a little. Say, both XM and Sirius want to raise another $200 million. At $20 per share, XM would issue an additional 10 million shares. At $6 per share, Sirius would issue an additional 33.3 million shares. This is ignoring any dilution effects to issuing more stocks, and whether or not they actually would.

Number of shares has nothing to do with it. Number of shares can be manipulated based on what the company wants the price of the stock to be.

If Sirius wanted to be directly comparable to XM, it would do a 1 for 6 reverse split, reducing Sirius' shares outstanding to roughly 222.2 million, the same as XMSR. At that point, they would be directly comparable. Assuming SIRI's current price of $5.71, after the reverse split, SIRI's stock price would be $34.20, compared on the same terms to XM's $23.75.

This isn't particularly relevant as a valuation tool either, as stock price is more a function on how the market views a company's potential, especially when the company is not making money, rather on what the company is actually worth. But, you can surmize that as of right now considering all of the currently known information, the market believes that SIRI has the greater potential.

Anyhow - if you look at the big picture, the real battle here is NOT Sirius vs. XM. It is Satelite radio vs. regular radio (terrestrial radio or something like that is its technical term). If the Satelite radio industry can continue to put a huge dent into regular radio, there will be ample room for 2 satellite companies to exist profitably. However, if satellite radio does not continue to grow, the liklihood that even one satellite company will survive is not great. If that happens, at some point, one might eventually buy out the other, but this will in turn be very costly, as you have two separate satellite systems - the logistics of turning it into one would be extremely expensive. Bottom line is, Satellite radio as an industry has to win out over regular radio.

[Swanman]

if 'well over' means nearing 3 MILLION over that number.

670,000 - 4,000,000 since Howard announced his move.

I'm not sure where Sirius is getting the 4,000,000 figure. Their 9/30/05 10Q states they had 2.2 million. I'm sure they added a lot of subs in the fourth quarter, but I'm skeptical that they almost doubled in one quarter. But assuming that number is correct, here is a comparison:

XM Subscribers at 9/30/03: 1 million
XM Subscribers at 12/31/05: 6 million
Subscriber gain: 5 million

Sirius subscribers at 9/30/03: 150,000
Sirius subscribers at 12/31/05: 4 million
Subscriber gain: 3.85 million

All said, XM still added more subscribers in that time window while not adding a $500,000,000 expense.

[blackhawk]

you might be a redneck lmfao!

[Swanman]

Playboy Radio starts around Feb 15 on SIRIUS 198
FIRST ON GSI
Here is some info on Playboy Radio kicking off SOON on SIRIUS!!!Playboy Radio launches in the next few weeks on Sirius Satellite Radio - channel 198. Launching in phases and with a 24/7 station that has a very robust and ambitious line up of shows. Lets break it down the info by categories.
Bubba The Love Sponge: Interview
Corey Deitz talked with Bubba The Love Sponge in an Exclusive interview on about.com.
Deitz ask Bubba about life after he was kicked off radio. Bubba talks about how he had an ongoing open dialog with SIRIUS...and then after he met Howard [Stern] on November 30 of ‘04, Howard told Bubba to his face - "man to man" - “Trust me. It’ll work out. I’ll make it happen.” And it did. You can read all 3 parts of this interview on about.com Bubba is also the searched-for radio personality right now at About.com
"Calvin and Me" Comedy Sports Show to SIRIUS
Calvin Murphy makes his comeback on Sirius Radio Channel 122 in a big way with a fresh and new sports/comedy weekly radio/TV show scheduled to begin production at the Fox Sports Grille in Houston titled "Calvin and Me". The two-hour radio program will air weekly on Saturdays @ 1-3pm EST. There will be one rebroadcast during the week. The radio Show will air via Sirius Ch. 122/Sports ByLine.

Calvin Murphy is an NBA Hall of Famer and National Baton Twirling Teenage Champion, Calvin is now known for his fast tongue and classy dressing.

They tried Playboy radio on XM and it failed miserably.

[kc1977]

In the interest of resting BD's 'clickin' finger.'

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
670K Subscribers (in 3 years of service) before Stern announced he was coming to Sirius, 4 million now.. Was it Martha Stewart or Richard Simmons that brought them all in ?

Now lets do the math

Lets say that Stern only brought in 2.5 million subscribers and that NOT 1 more subsriber will come to Sirius because of Stern.

That means that in one month Stern brought in 37.5 million in subscriber dollars, in 12 months he brought in 450 million, this doesnt include advertising dollars either for his channels which do charge a premium.

Now his deal was a reported 500 Million (which was not in cash) so please explain how signing Stern wasnt an incredible deal ?


Not an entirely sound argument. At this point, every new subscriber actually still costs the company money rather than makes them any. I'm not sure what the current breakeven mark is in terms of how many months one need subscribe to be a profit for the company. So, he might bring in a lot more revenue, but profit is yet to be determined. Eventually, I think it will end up being a very sound move.

As far as investors go, Stern was also given a pretty massive amount of shares with the deal, which actually puts his total compensation for the deal in the $650 million to $700 million range. Speculation is he is slowly liquidating these shares, which has applied pressure in the market and brought down Sirius' stock price the last month or two. Just a blip on the radar for the long term investor, though.

[blackhawk]

oprah reads from her book club for 30 min zzzzzzzzzz great!

[blackhawk]

They tried Playboy radio on XM and it failed miserably.
did they do it with video!sirius

[blackhawk]

proud owner of 100000 share at 1 buck per share!;>
get sirius!

[KevB]

I just had to choose between the two myself. I chose XM. The NFL means nothing to me.....I watch the games. MLB was big....I can sit at my desk at work and listen to afternoon baseball. The talk radio and music was equal to me. Ultimately, it came down to MLB and the hardware being a better value proposition for my needs. I got one of the XM2Go units, and get reception everywhere I spend any time (home, car, work). It's been great.

[penchief]

I just subscribed to Sirius last month. I held off for a long time because it seemed like too much of a luxury. Paying for radio just didn't seem right. But after pulling the trigger I have to say it was one of the best moves I ever made. Conventional radio made it difficult to hear the wide variety of music I enjoy. Plus I have always done a lot of traveling so a.m. talk radio has always been a staple on long trips. Now I get to hear my kind of music all the time (it's usually preset to Classic Vinyl, Blues, Underground, 70's, or Bluegrass). Plus, I get to listen to any kind of talk radio I prefer. As a Chiefs fan in the mountains of north central PA, I like having the NFL because I get to keep up like never before.

All these advantages come without the annoying static and no more lugging around hundreds of CD's in inconvenient carrying cases.

I'm actually considering investing in Sirius.

[blackhawk]

i have a s50 in the truck and directv for chiefs football directv has xm on the audio channels and it sucks content is king! buy the stock and in one year
you will be one happy chiefs fan!

[blackhawk]

drive in the car with the wife she is going to listen nfl network not to no f#$king oprah! sorry xm but no thanks next she will have you shoping with her!

[Bob Dole]

He definitely didn't bring in $500 million in cash, that would require divine intervention. Basically, to pay his salary, they have to add just over 600,000 subscribers (600,000 x 12.95 (monthly price) x 12 = around $100 million). Since Sirius has added well over that number, they say they have paid his salary. But that assumes they will keep all of those subs over the life of his 5-year contract. 5 years is a long time in this new of an industry.

That was pretty much Bob Dole's point. Unless every one of those subscribers pre-paid a 5 year contract, his salary has yet to be paid.

What happens when some new technology comes around later this year that offers a better alternative? What happens when someone "better" than Stern appears out of the woodwork?

It's just silly for them to have chunked out that sort of scratch for an on-air personality, IBDHO.

[Bob Dole]

Blue Collar brand expands to satellite radio with SIRIUS SIRIUS Channel builds on Blue Collar's blockbuster performance in movies, CDs, TV, DVDs, concerts and books
Feb 01, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) and Parallel Entertainment today announced the launch of Blue Collar Comedy, a new channel on SIRIUS, featuring the Blue Collar Comedy comedians Jeff Foxworthy, Larry the Cable Guy, and Bill Engvall, as well as many others.

Hell yes! Now Bob Dole has a reason to activate the receiver in his 1985 Chevy C-10!

[dj56dt58]

Same here. I've only been in the "Can't watch, can't listen" situation while i've been driving for a Chiefs game.
yeah me too..i swear i used to get lost everytime i tried driving to a game

[HemiEd]

http://www.dailyherald.com/business/businessstory.asp?id=157150

Losses mount at XM Radio; director quits
Associated Press
Posted Friday, February 17, 2006


NEW YORK — XM Satellite Radio Holdings losses soared in the fourth quarter on higher costs for marketing and gaining subscribers, and a key director quit over disagreements about the company’s direction, warning of a looming “crisis.”

Investors sent shares of the company down $1.27, or 5 percent, to close at $23.98.

Of particular concern to investors was the unexpected departure of Pierce J. Roberts Jr. from XM’s board of directors. He said in his resignation letter that he was “troubled” by the company’s current path.

“Given current course and speed there is, in my view, a significant chance of a crisis on the horizon,” Roberts wrote. “Even absent a crisis, I believe that XM will inevitably serve its shareholders poorly without major changes now.”

The company said Roberts had been pressing for tighter cost controls, while the company and other directors favor instead efforts to continue XM’s rapid subscriber growth.

In the fourth quarter, XM, the larger of the country’s two satellite radio operators, lost $270.4 million, or $1.22 per share, after dividends for preferred stockholders. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 92 cents. In the same period a year earlier, the loss was $190.4 million.

Revenue more than doubled to $177.1 million.

Net average cost for adding each subscriber rose to $141 in the quarter from $104 in the same period a year ago.

Company officials said they expect those costs to drop as advertising spending declines. Last fall XM was going up against the imminent arrival of shock jock Howard Stern at its rival Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.

XM and its Sirius are locked in a vicious and expensive battle to line up listeners and programming for their pay radio services, which currently cost about $13 a month. Both offer talk and news as well as commercial-free music.

Like Sirius, XM relies heavily on capital markets to fund its aggressive expansion efforts, and analysts cautioned that any disruption of the willingness of investors to stay on board could have serious consequences.

Late last month XM said in a regulatory filing that it planned to raise an additional $470 million from investors.

[Hoover]

So I understand that XM doesn't have the NFL, but the sports stations still talk about the NFL especially after games and during the season. So its not like XM doesn't have any NFL coverage.

[Hoover]

That was pretty much Bob Dole's point. Unless every one of those subscribers pre-paid a 5 year contract, his salary has yet to be paid.

What happens when some new technology comes around later this year that offers a better alternative? What happens when someone "better" than Stern appears out of the woodwork?

It's just silly for them to have chunked out that sort of scratch for an on-air personality, IBDHO.
Personally I don't like Stern, not my kind of thing.

[HemiEd]

Sirius has many other sports stations as well, including the "ESPN Ocho" talking heads. I can get all of that I want on regular radio around here.
I truly enjoy the choice of continuous music from the 50s, 60s or 70s without commercial on Sirius.

[Eleazar]

Out of curiousity I was looking at the analyst grades and recommendations over at yahoo finance, and XM seemed to have the better ratings. :shrug:

[Nzoner]

Sirius Satellite Radio and Howard Stern Go Ear to Ear with XM (http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1393 )

Since announcing on October 6, 2004, that it had signed Howard Stern to a five-year deal, Sirius Satellite Radio has added approximately 2.7 million subscribers and become a household name in the satellite radio world. The tab: Close to $700 million.

Is Stern worth it? The answer depends on whom you ask. Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin, who joined the company in November 2004 and had been Stern's boss at Infinity Broadcasting and then Viacom before departing in June 2004, says the radio "shock jock" is a good investment. "There is no question that Howard is worth the money that he is getting paid," said Karmazin on CNBC's "Mad Money" show last fall. "As a matter of fact, if he was going to renegotiate today, he would have to get more money because [sales are] really doing well."

Others aren't so sure. Wharton marketing professor Peter Fader says Sirius would have reached its current 3.3 million subscriber total without Stern. According to Wayne Guay, a Wharton accounting professor and compensation expert, Stern's salary is a simple function of supply and demand. "There are few in the industry who could generate those subscriber numbers," he notes. Wharton marketing professor Jagmohan Raju labels the bet on Stern "a reasonable gamble." And David Bell, another marketing professor at Wharton, suggests Stern can deliver the type of consumer "evangelism" that can make Sirius a sustainable brand.

"For Sirius it's a bit of a gamble, but Stern was instrumental early on with putting brands like Snapple in the limelight on his radio show," says Bell. "He has a hardcore loyal audience that will be brand evangelists" for Sirius.

While it's still early to determine how the Stern story will ultimately play out -- the radio personality began his first Sirius broadcast on January 9, 2006 -- a few key issues will tell the tale. Can the Stern effect last beyond his first few months of airtime? Will Sirius be able to close the gap with XM Satellite Radio, which ended the year with more than six million subscribers? And will the buzz generated by Sirius's grab for shows like Stern's and the broadcasting rights to the National Football League games help the company to eventually surpass XM's subscriber base?

No matter how this saga unfolds, Stern won't come cheap. Jonathan Jacoby, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, estimates that the true cost of Stern's contract will be about $670 million, including non-cash compensation. Stern and his agent, Don Buchwald, were awarded 34 million shares valued at about $200 million last month for bringing in more subscribers than expected. Fader finds it hard to defend Stern's compensation. While it's possible to cook up metrics to justify the deal, what remains to be seen is whether Stern's fans stick with Sirius. "A lot of them bought Sirius just for Stern, but there could be lower retention rates. It's very hard to imagine that the acquisition of one person, even if it is someone as popular as Howard Stern, will be enough to keep Sirius afloat for long," he says.

Crunching the Numbers

Putting a number on the Stern effect has been a relatively simple calculation. In announcing the deal in 2004, Sirius said it needed just one million subscribers to break even on the base five-year $500 million contract. Raju has no reason to doubt that math and agrees that the lifetime value of a Sirius subscriber who pays $12.95 a month is about $500.

The only complication in Sirius's math is trying to benchmark what Stern is really worth, says Guay, adding that determining whether Stern is overpaid isn't as clear-cut as it would be for a company executive, such as a chief financial officer. Why? Executive compensation can be compared across entire industries to get a ballpark figure and range of fair salaries. For entertainers, those benchmarks are difficult to find. "It's a different animal when you're dealing with entertainers," says Guay. "Stern is a huge player in the industry and had bargaining power. Sirius had to pay whatever it took. It's like paying for a star baseball player."

The comparison between Stern and a star baseball player is apt, Guay adds. When a baseball team signs a star it has to project how much additional revenue from jersey and ticket sales and concessions can be generated by the new player. Sirius also had to make a guess as to what Stern could add in advertising revenue (the Stern show has a handful of commercials during a nearly five-hour broadcast) and media attention.

In the media attention department, there are few entertainers who can rival Stern, who spent more than a year talking about his Sirius move on his previous "terrestrial" radio show before actually leaving. Stern was so successful at pushing Sirius subscriptions that he triggered an incentive clause for bringing in new subscribers. The result has been the 34 million shares award. Despite Stern's efforts, however, the subscriber gap between XM and Sirius is about the same as it was when the radio personality signed in 2004.

According to Fader, Sirius probably would have had the same subscriber tally without Stern. "That gap was misleading," he says. "If the technology truly is becoming ubiquitous, both [companies] will have tens of millions of subscribers. It was too early to do a bold move like this." Indeed, Fader expects the Stern effect to wear off shortly, a theory endorsed by Banc of America's Jacoby. In a January 27 research note, Jacoby said that shortages of Sirius radios [due to high consumer demand] have abated from early January, and that advertising on Stern's show is selling at a discount due to lack of initial audience data.

Another threat to Sirius's Stern bet is the Internet, says Fader. The Los Angeles Times reported last week that illicit downloading of Stern's Sirius shows spiked after the paper reported on the broad availability of bootlegged versions on Internet file-sharing networks. The fact that Stern's show is already being swapped around the Internet leaves Fader wondering "just how durable the retention rate will be" for Stern fans who only subscribed to Sirius to get Stern.

"Push" vs. "Pull" Marketing

The strategies of Sirius and XM today are very similar, but may diverge over time, say experts at Wharton.

XM established its lead by getting its radio factory installed by car manufacturers -- such as General Motors, Toyota (which offers XM on select models) and Honda -- faster than Sirius did, and earns the bulk of its subscriptions through automakers. By 2008, brokerage firm Friedman Billings Ramsey estimates XM will be a factory-installed option in five million cars, up from two million in 2005. Sirius, which has deals with Ford, DaimlerChrysler and BMW, was slower to get factory-installed radios and as of September 30, 2005, only attracted 27% of its subscribers through deals with auto manufacturers. XM also has had a technology lead with its radios, says Raju, adding that the strategy of distributing satellite radio through exclusive arrangements with automakers is a classic "push" marketing strategy. "The way this industry works is that there are heavy fixed costs, and billions spent on satellites. But after that, it's a marketing battle in a business with low variable costs. These two are like Coke and Pepsi."

As satellite technology improves, however, the deals with car manufacturers will become less important, suggests Fader. That's where Sirius's Stern gambit comes into play. According to Bell, Sirius appears to be migrating to a "pull" marketing plan where it tries to differentiate itself with its content and lure consumers with the Stern affiliation. In the fourth quarter, analysts say Sirius appeared to win retail sales at places like Best Buy, and plans to increase sales through automakers over the next two years.

If Sirius can equal XM's sales through auto manufacturers, its strategy to promote its stars could become pivotal, as consumers vote with their dollars, wax enthusiastic about the service and bolster the subscriber tally, says Bell. And if this demand is sustained, more automakers could become agnostic about which service they offer. Indeed, automakers such as Nissan, Volkswagen and Lexus haven't yet connected with one or the other. "Of the two strategies [bundling with automakers or selling directly to potential listeners], the consumer-driven model is more successful if the two services are close substitutes," says Bell.

He notes that every successful brand such as the iPod maintains momentum with evangelists -- friends who tell other friends about the product. What remains to be seen is whether the upfront buzz about Sirius can be maintained. Bell illustrates the Stern evangelism effect this way: Picture two people who are Stern fans and talk daily about the show. One person bought Sirius and the other didn't. Suddenly, one fan is talking about the show, but the other can't listen. "There is a social benefit (to getting a friend to buy Sirius)," says Bell. That effect may be difficult for XM to replicate since Stern is a unique commodity. "XM could hire someone else, say a Don Imus [a Stern rival who broadcasts in the mornings for Viacom], but it's difficult to do."

Whether Sirius's strategy works will largely depend on how customers view the two brands. If consumers are passive and view the two services as equal, XM -- and its deals with GM and Toyota -- could prove more successful, says Bell.

Winning the Content War

What remains to be seen is whether hitching Sirius's wagon to the likes of Stern and Martha Stewart, another recent signing, will pay off. In other words, does content really matter? XM apparently thinks so. XM has Opie & Anthony, rivals of Stern, and Major League Baseball broadcasts. The telling statistics for both companies will be the churn of current customers and the subscriber growth rate.

For now, both Sirius and XM are losing money. For the nine months ending September 30, 2005, XM reported a net loss of $398.4 million on revenues of $381 million. For the same period, Sirius lost $551.6 million on revenues of $162 million.

What alarms Fader is that both XM and Sirius are spending heavily on content in a way that can lead to the demise of both. The content war for both companies is coming too early in their development, he argues, adding that the move to lock up big content deals is occurring at a time when both XM and Sirius could have grown without them. To make matters worse, these big deals are being signed by Sirius and XM in an attempt to differentiate their brands, but the services are still similar. "The way this is going to play out is self destruction. The services are interchangeable. One has football and the other has baseball."

Raju agrees. "It's hard to distinguish the content. The technology and quality are good for both." However, XM and Sirius aren't necessarily competing against each other. "The real battle is the acquisition of customers from conventional radio," says Raju, who adds that better content helps to convince consumers to pay for radio. "That's where these two face true competition."

While handicapping the effects of Sirius and its race against XM may make an interesting case study, new technologies could render both players moot. Satellite radio technology still has to develop, according to Raju. For instance, both services work well in a car, but home use is spotty because you have to position the antenna in areas with a clear view of the sky to get reception.

In addition, the portability of satellite radio currently lags that of traditional terrestrial radio. XM has a portable device that can get live broadcasts, but its reviews have been mixed because service is uneven, says Raju. Sirius countered with a device called the s50, but it can only download content, not get it live. In the end, Bell says these technology kinks will be ironed out, leaving the service with the best content taking the lead. For instance, Betamax, a video recording format, had higher quality than VHS, which ultimately became a standard. Why did VHS win? It had more content on its format.

What remains to be seen is what competition emerges for Sirius and XM. "There's space for two players in the long run," says Raju. "The big question is how quickly others enter the market. A cell phone could pipe music onto a dashboard device. There are competitors on the horizon."

No matter how the business strategies evolve for XM and Sirius, both are going to remain interesting players to follow. "It's a great time to watch this industry," says Fader. "Some outside player such as Motorola or somebody else is going to buy one of these up and make it really interesting."

[Nzoner]

I truly enjoy the choice of continuous music from the 50s, 60s or 70s without commercial on Sirius.

Don't forget the Elvis channel :D

[Baby Lee]

A secretary at work got a pajama-gram and a Vermont teddy bear for Valentine's Day. The immediate response from the office [amid the regular old, oohs and aahs, and ain't that sweets] was 'somebody's hubby is a Howard fan.'

THAT is brand cachet.

[cadmonkey]

All this talk about XM vs. Sirius is really pointless. Eventually they are going to merge and be one company. It really is only a matter of time.

[HemiEd]

Don't forget the Elvis channel :D


I do listen to the Stones channel quite a bit. They play a lot of tracks that I do not remember.

[HemiEd]

XM established its lead by getting its radio factory installed by car manufacturers -- such as General Motors, Toyota (which offers XM on select models) and Honda -- faster than Sirius did, and earns the bulk of its subscriptions through automakers. "


We are working on a project that will allow you to switch from XM to Sirius, the equipment will not be brand specific.

[Bob Dole]

Out of curiousity I was looking at the analyst grades and recommendations over at yahoo finance, and XM seemed to have the better ratings. :shrug:

Looks like now is a good time to buy Sirius...

[Fat Elvis]

Looks like now is a good time to buy Sirius...


I'd rather not try to catch a falling knife....

[Bob Dole]

I'd rather not try to catch a falling knife....

Are you kidding? The Stern contract was a stroke of genious and sales are through the roof! It's going to start climbing any day now.

[jspchief]

A secretary at work got a pajama-gram and a Vermont teddy bear for Valentine's Day. The immediate response from the office [amid the regular old, oohs and aahs, and ain't that sweets] was 'somebody's hubby is a Howard fan.'

THAT is brand cachet.I'm not following.

Vermont Teddy Bear and Pajama gram advertise on every radio station in the country that has a male demographic. In Des Moines, someone could have just as easily said "someone is a Cotler and Company in the Morning fan". And anyone that gets the syndictaed Fox Sports morning extravaganza could have said "Someone is a J-Dub fan".

[Fat Elvis]

Are you kidding? The Stern contract was a stroke of genious and sales are through the roof! It's going to start climbing any day now.

Yeah, but they were saying that at $7, $6.50, $6, $5.50, $5....

I'm not saying it doesn't have potential: I'd rather let the dust settle a little bit before getting in. I'm not very good at picking tops or botttoms, so I'd rather follow the trend and right now the trend is down.

[jspchief]

I have a hard time believing there are that many Stern fans. I find nothing entertaining about his show. Lowbrow and infantile? Yes. Funny? No.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

A good rule to live by when buying a stock- it is hard to justify the buy when the company has NO earnings. What are you buying it for? Pure speculation/gambling=loss of your cash.

[Bob Dole]

A good rule to live by when buying a stock- it is hard to justify the buy when the company has NO earnings. What are you buying it for? Pure speculation/gambling=loss of your cash.

Bob Dole is fairly certain that a large number of Stern fans/supporters were on here somewhere citing huge revenue figures, but quite honestly, Bob Dole is too lazy to look.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

Bob Dole is fairly certain that a large number of Stern fans/supporters were on here somewhere citing huge revenue figures, but quite honestly, Bob Dole is too lazy to look.

As a subscriber, I am sure that there will be revenues at some point. I am just not sure when. I love my service, but that doesn't mean everyone else will. People still act like I am crazy for paying for radio. I am just not sure if even the low stock price justifies a purchase yet.