Mr. Flopnuts
07-13-2006, 09:14 AM
http://kcchiefs.com/news/2006/07/13/rand_lets_not_get_picky_just_yet/
RAND: Let's Not Get Picky Just Yet
Jul 13, 2006, 3:25:54 AM by Jonathan Rand - FAQ
The dreaded picks season is upon us. This is when you claim to make an educated guess as to how the Chiefs, or any other NFL team, will fare this season.
For anybody who writes about the NFL, making picks is like putting on a dunce cap. You’re begging for ridicule. So why do we keep making them?
Because fans love pre-season picks, even when they go up in flames by mid-season. If their team is every prognosticator’s darling, they feel like they’ve already won something. If their team gets trashed unanimously, fans can wear a chip on their shoulders.
Before the 2005 season, I guessed the Chiefs would finish 10-6 and reach the playoffs. At least I was half right. How did I know they’d become only the second team since 1990 to win 10 games and miss the playoffs?
For prognosticators this summer, the Chiefs shape up as one of the league’s tougher cases. It’s tough to dismiss a team that for two straight years has led the NFL in total offense and features Larry Johnson, an obvious contender for the rushing title. It’s also tough to predict a Super Bowl trip for a team that had the 25th-ranked defense.
Coach Herman Edwards comes in as a wild card. It’s uncertain whether his defensive mindset and preference for running the ball will right away produce a stronger team, or a team that sacrifices some pop on offense and still struggles on defense.
Predictions are hazardous because teams usually don’t rise or fall gradually. Most picks are based on last year’s record, talent added and lost, the schedule’s difficulty and the head coach’s track record. Sometimes this actually works.
A year ago, I considered the Chiefs’ 7-9 record in 2004 and guessed they’d be three games better because of a more manageable schedule, the return of Priest Holmes after knee surgery and anticipated defense improvement.
But a team’s progress or decline has been especially tough to forecast since the start of free agency in 1993. Now some teams barely resemble the same bunch from the year before.
Before free agency, you seldom could go wrong picking a Super Bowl team to come back strong. Super Bowl losers, in particular, could be counted on to win a bunch of games.
The fact they reached the Super Bowl spoke for their talent. The bitter taste of losing the big one guaranteed they’d play with fire in their eyes the next season. The Buffalo Bills famously reached the Super Bowl each season from 1990-1993.
Now, a Super Bowl loss has become the kiss of death. Five straight Super Bowl losers, through last season, not only came back and missed the playoffs but all had losing records, too. So it will take a leap of faith to predict big things for the Seahawks, 21-10 losers to the Steelers in February.
Most serious pickers wait at least until deep into the preseason before trying to guess which way one team or 32 teams are headed. Oddly enough, they might be better off making their best guesses right now.
Pre-season games can fool you more than they enlighten you. A struggling young quarterback may seem to have finally put it all together, only to come unglued when the defenses really mean business in September.
And what if the Chiefs’ defense performs like a world beater during August? We won’t know if that portends dramatic improvement until the Bengals visit Arrowhead Stadium on September 10.
If I had to forecast the Chiefs’ record today, I’d project 9-7, partly because it’s tough for a new head coach to make a huge immediate impact. But I’ll wait at least another month to etch a pick in stone.
And that might prove a mistake. So often in the picking game, the more you see, the less you really know.
RAND: Let's Not Get Picky Just Yet
Jul 13, 2006, 3:25:54 AM by Jonathan Rand - FAQ
The dreaded picks season is upon us. This is when you claim to make an educated guess as to how the Chiefs, or any other NFL team, will fare this season.
For anybody who writes about the NFL, making picks is like putting on a dunce cap. You’re begging for ridicule. So why do we keep making them?
Because fans love pre-season picks, even when they go up in flames by mid-season. If their team is every prognosticator’s darling, they feel like they’ve already won something. If their team gets trashed unanimously, fans can wear a chip on their shoulders.
Before the 2005 season, I guessed the Chiefs would finish 10-6 and reach the playoffs. At least I was half right. How did I know they’d become only the second team since 1990 to win 10 games and miss the playoffs?
For prognosticators this summer, the Chiefs shape up as one of the league’s tougher cases. It’s tough to dismiss a team that for two straight years has led the NFL in total offense and features Larry Johnson, an obvious contender for the rushing title. It’s also tough to predict a Super Bowl trip for a team that had the 25th-ranked defense.
Coach Herman Edwards comes in as a wild card. It’s uncertain whether his defensive mindset and preference for running the ball will right away produce a stronger team, or a team that sacrifices some pop on offense and still struggles on defense.
Predictions are hazardous because teams usually don’t rise or fall gradually. Most picks are based on last year’s record, talent added and lost, the schedule’s difficulty and the head coach’s track record. Sometimes this actually works.
A year ago, I considered the Chiefs’ 7-9 record in 2004 and guessed they’d be three games better because of a more manageable schedule, the return of Priest Holmes after knee surgery and anticipated defense improvement.
But a team’s progress or decline has been especially tough to forecast since the start of free agency in 1993. Now some teams barely resemble the same bunch from the year before.
Before free agency, you seldom could go wrong picking a Super Bowl team to come back strong. Super Bowl losers, in particular, could be counted on to win a bunch of games.
The fact they reached the Super Bowl spoke for their talent. The bitter taste of losing the big one guaranteed they’d play with fire in their eyes the next season. The Buffalo Bills famously reached the Super Bowl each season from 1990-1993.
Now, a Super Bowl loss has become the kiss of death. Five straight Super Bowl losers, through last season, not only came back and missed the playoffs but all had losing records, too. So it will take a leap of faith to predict big things for the Seahawks, 21-10 losers to the Steelers in February.
Most serious pickers wait at least until deep into the preseason before trying to guess which way one team or 32 teams are headed. Oddly enough, they might be better off making their best guesses right now.
Pre-season games can fool you more than they enlighten you. A struggling young quarterback may seem to have finally put it all together, only to come unglued when the defenses really mean business in September.
And what if the Chiefs’ defense performs like a world beater during August? We won’t know if that portends dramatic improvement until the Bengals visit Arrowhead Stadium on September 10.
If I had to forecast the Chiefs’ record today, I’d project 9-7, partly because it’s tough for a new head coach to make a huge immediate impact. But I’ll wait at least another month to etch a pick in stone.
And that might prove a mistake. So often in the picking game, the more you see, the less you really know.