Fire Me Boy!
09-28-2006, 09:52 AM
Fantasy football players to start, and to avoid, in Week 4
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
It seems like just a couple weeks ago the anti-Brett Favre bandwagon was barreling through Green Bay at about 100 mph, overloaded with experts demanding that the graying interception machine hang it up immediately.
Oh yeah, it was just a couple weeks ago.
Since then Favre has put together two straight 340-yard, 3-TD games, making him a fantasy football savior to many in need of a quick fix after higher-drafted quarterbacks flopped. How good has Favre been? His 850 yards is fourth in the NFL and his six TDs are third.
The question now is, can he keep it up? Last year's finish would indicate he can't, considering he had one touchdown and 10 interceptions in his last five games. But his late-season stats were impressive the four years before that, when he had 32, 27, 32 and 30 TDs.
He has other factors on his side this year. The Packers have a fairly weak schedule, can't run the ball and can't stop anybody, meaning Favre will have to launch it often. So keep him in your starting lineup as long as he keeps it up, but also keep an eye on the waiver wire just in case he starts to head south again.
As you snap on your cheese head and fire up the bratwurst, here's a look at some players to start in Week 4, some to avoid and some long shots that just may pan out.
QUARTERBACKS – A SAFE BET
– Dallas' Drew Bledsoe has had a week of rest and the odds are astronomical against two straight decent defensive games by the Titans. (In the name of disclosure, I'm almost always wrong about Bledsoe, so start him at your own risk.)
– Make this the last chance for Miami's Daunte Culpepper. He put up a piddly 168 yards against the dreadful Titans last week, and if he can't beat up on the Texans there may be no hope. (An update on his post-Randy Moss stats: He's 3-7 with 7 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.)
– Now that Jake Delhomme finally has played a game with both Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, maybe he'll actually start throwing touchdown passes. That's plural, like more than the one he has so far this year.
– The Rams' Marc Bulger could have a big game against the Lions, who apparently have played their one defensive game of the season. Since holding the Seahawks to three field goals in the opener, Detroit has allowed seven TD passes.
– Speaking of the Lions, Jon Kitna's coming off his first 300-yard game since 2003. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz, fired by the Rams last year, surely has some extra-special wackiness cooked up for his return to St. Louis.
TAKE A SHOT
– Cleveland's Charlie Frye is turning into a nice little QB with that perfect fantasy 1-2 punch: His team can't run and is usually behind. He has run for a score in all three games and faces the white-flag-flying Raiders.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT
Please, in the name of David Whitehurst, don't start these guys:
– The law of averages says Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck won't do much the week after a five-TD game. He's also playing without a proven running game against the Bears' defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown pass.
– Washington's Mark Brunell, who just set an NFL record against Houston with 22 straight completions, will quickly realize that the Jaguars actually tackle and sack and do all that other stuff the Texans don't.
– Buffalo's J.P. Losman followed up his 80-yard passing game with a 300-yard outing last week. He should be closer to his old double-digit self against a Vikings defense that has allowed just one passing touchdown.
RUNNING BACKS – ALL DAY LONG
– Overthinker Alert: Never, ever, ever bench San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson, even against the Ravens' top-ranked run defense that's yielding a little over 30 yards a game. The last time LT faced the Ravens, in 2003, he went over 100 yards with a score.
– The Eagles' Brian Westbrook should have a big day against Green Bay. The Pack has been surprisingly tough against the run, but Westbrook will burn them with plenty of catches, too.
– Miami's Ronnie Brown wins this week's game of Find the Texans Defense. He should be good for at least 100 yards and a score against the NFL's worst defenders. (Hey, if Ladell Betts can do it, surely Brown can too.)
– Dallas' Julius Jones wins the other game all fantasy players must take part in: Find the Titans Defense. It looks like he's getting a lot more carries than the rest of the crowded backfield, based on his 20 attempts in Dallas' last game.
– Julius' big brother Thomas hasn't done squat this year (3.0 yards a carry, 0 TDs), but he seems to now be the primary runner in Chicago in what should be a slugfest with Seattle.
HE COULD FIND A SEAM
– New England rookie Laurence Maroney could get the bulk of the carries this week with Corey Dillon's injury, and he faces a Bengals defense giving up 113 yards rushing a game.
RED FLAGS
– Seattle's Maurice Morris, starting in place of the injured Shaun Alexander, is great if your league awards points when first and last names sort of rhyme. Otherwise, expect him to be just as crummy as Alexander has been.
– A few players seem to have lost carries in running back committees, so bench Chicago's Cedric Benson, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Dallas' Marion Barber III until their roles are more defined.
– Is it worse news for the Texans that they have to start Ron Dayne, or worse for Dayne that he has to start for the Texans? (And I may be confused about how it all transpired, but didn't Houston pass on Reggie Bush because they knew Dayne would be available?)
WIDE RECEIVERS – THROW HIM THE DARN BALL!
– Start everybody in Cincinnati against the Patriots, who aren't much on defense these days. Chad Johnson is due to rebound, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry are both coming off two-touchdown games.
– Now that Donte' Stallworth is back to his old injured self, Reggie Brown of the Eagles is again a solid option. He had a 100-yard game last week and faces a really bad Pack pass defense.
– It's fitting that trash giant Waste Management Inc. has its corporate headquarters in Houston because Andre Johnson is emerging as one of the league's best garbage men. Look for him to pile up more meaningless stats in this week's loss.
– Forget Joe Horn – Marques Colston is the man for the unbeaten Saints. The seventh-round pick of this year's draft scored in his two first games and had 97 yards last week.
– Derrick Mason just had his first 100-yard game since being reunited with Steve McNair in Baltimore. The Chargers have the top-ranked pass defense, but they haven't played anyone who can pass.
MAYBE THROW HIM THE DARN BALL?
– Little Wes Welker leads the Dolphins in receptions, and remember that good things come to those who play the Texans.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH
– Bench Matt Jones and Reggie Williams of the Jaguars on principal alone after the Jaguars' starting duo combined for 8 yards last week.
– Also keep Santana Moss and other Redskins on the bench against the Jaguars.
– There's no point in starting any receiver in St. Louis aside from Torry Holt, who has half the Rams' WR catches and both the touchdowns.
FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST
Roll the dice on these guys if they're still available in your league:
Maurice Morris of Seattle, Chris Henry of Cincinnati (2 TDs), Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville (103 yards rushing, TD), Charlie Frye of Cleveland (298 yards passing, TD).
WHAT DO I KNOW?
Here's the best and worst of last week's projections:
– Big Hits: I expected success for Carson Palmer (4 TDs) against a brutal Steelers defense. I also saw good things for Brett Favre (340 yards, 3 TDs), Roy Williams (138 yards, TD) and Darrell Jackson (2 TDs).
– Big Misses: I thought Daunte Culpepper (1 rushing TD, 0 passing TDs) would finally wake up. I also expected a rebound by Tiki Barber (64 yards rushing, 0 TDs), as well as failure for Lee Evans (107 yards) and Edgerrin James (94 yards, TD).
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
It seems like just a couple weeks ago the anti-Brett Favre bandwagon was barreling through Green Bay at about 100 mph, overloaded with experts demanding that the graying interception machine hang it up immediately.
Oh yeah, it was just a couple weeks ago.
Since then Favre has put together two straight 340-yard, 3-TD games, making him a fantasy football savior to many in need of a quick fix after higher-drafted quarterbacks flopped. How good has Favre been? His 850 yards is fourth in the NFL and his six TDs are third.
The question now is, can he keep it up? Last year's finish would indicate he can't, considering he had one touchdown and 10 interceptions in his last five games. But his late-season stats were impressive the four years before that, when he had 32, 27, 32 and 30 TDs.
He has other factors on his side this year. The Packers have a fairly weak schedule, can't run the ball and can't stop anybody, meaning Favre will have to launch it often. So keep him in your starting lineup as long as he keeps it up, but also keep an eye on the waiver wire just in case he starts to head south again.
As you snap on your cheese head and fire up the bratwurst, here's a look at some players to start in Week 4, some to avoid and some long shots that just may pan out.
QUARTERBACKS – A SAFE BET
– Dallas' Drew Bledsoe has had a week of rest and the odds are astronomical against two straight decent defensive games by the Titans. (In the name of disclosure, I'm almost always wrong about Bledsoe, so start him at your own risk.)
– Make this the last chance for Miami's Daunte Culpepper. He put up a piddly 168 yards against the dreadful Titans last week, and if he can't beat up on the Texans there may be no hope. (An update on his post-Randy Moss stats: He's 3-7 with 7 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.)
– Now that Jake Delhomme finally has played a game with both Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, maybe he'll actually start throwing touchdown passes. That's plural, like more than the one he has so far this year.
– The Rams' Marc Bulger could have a big game against the Lions, who apparently have played their one defensive game of the season. Since holding the Seahawks to three field goals in the opener, Detroit has allowed seven TD passes.
– Speaking of the Lions, Jon Kitna's coming off his first 300-yard game since 2003. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz, fired by the Rams last year, surely has some extra-special wackiness cooked up for his return to St. Louis.
TAKE A SHOT
– Cleveland's Charlie Frye is turning into a nice little QB with that perfect fantasy 1-2 punch: His team can't run and is usually behind. He has run for a score in all three games and faces the white-flag-flying Raiders.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT
Please, in the name of David Whitehurst, don't start these guys:
– The law of averages says Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck won't do much the week after a five-TD game. He's also playing without a proven running game against the Bears' defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown pass.
– Washington's Mark Brunell, who just set an NFL record against Houston with 22 straight completions, will quickly realize that the Jaguars actually tackle and sack and do all that other stuff the Texans don't.
– Buffalo's J.P. Losman followed up his 80-yard passing game with a 300-yard outing last week. He should be closer to his old double-digit self against a Vikings defense that has allowed just one passing touchdown.
RUNNING BACKS – ALL DAY LONG
– Overthinker Alert: Never, ever, ever bench San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson, even against the Ravens' top-ranked run defense that's yielding a little over 30 yards a game. The last time LT faced the Ravens, in 2003, he went over 100 yards with a score.
– The Eagles' Brian Westbrook should have a big day against Green Bay. The Pack has been surprisingly tough against the run, but Westbrook will burn them with plenty of catches, too.
– Miami's Ronnie Brown wins this week's game of Find the Texans Defense. He should be good for at least 100 yards and a score against the NFL's worst defenders. (Hey, if Ladell Betts can do it, surely Brown can too.)
– Dallas' Julius Jones wins the other game all fantasy players must take part in: Find the Titans Defense. It looks like he's getting a lot more carries than the rest of the crowded backfield, based on his 20 attempts in Dallas' last game.
– Julius' big brother Thomas hasn't done squat this year (3.0 yards a carry, 0 TDs), but he seems to now be the primary runner in Chicago in what should be a slugfest with Seattle.
HE COULD FIND A SEAM
– New England rookie Laurence Maroney could get the bulk of the carries this week with Corey Dillon's injury, and he faces a Bengals defense giving up 113 yards rushing a game.
RED FLAGS
– Seattle's Maurice Morris, starting in place of the injured Shaun Alexander, is great if your league awards points when first and last names sort of rhyme. Otherwise, expect him to be just as crummy as Alexander has been.
– A few players seem to have lost carries in running back committees, so bench Chicago's Cedric Benson, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Dallas' Marion Barber III until their roles are more defined.
– Is it worse news for the Texans that they have to start Ron Dayne, or worse for Dayne that he has to start for the Texans? (And I may be confused about how it all transpired, but didn't Houston pass on Reggie Bush because they knew Dayne would be available?)
WIDE RECEIVERS – THROW HIM THE DARN BALL!
– Start everybody in Cincinnati against the Patriots, who aren't much on defense these days. Chad Johnson is due to rebound, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry are both coming off two-touchdown games.
– Now that Donte' Stallworth is back to his old injured self, Reggie Brown of the Eagles is again a solid option. He had a 100-yard game last week and faces a really bad Pack pass defense.
– It's fitting that trash giant Waste Management Inc. has its corporate headquarters in Houston because Andre Johnson is emerging as one of the league's best garbage men. Look for him to pile up more meaningless stats in this week's loss.
– Forget Joe Horn – Marques Colston is the man for the unbeaten Saints. The seventh-round pick of this year's draft scored in his two first games and had 97 yards last week.
– Derrick Mason just had his first 100-yard game since being reunited with Steve McNair in Baltimore. The Chargers have the top-ranked pass defense, but they haven't played anyone who can pass.
MAYBE THROW HIM THE DARN BALL?
– Little Wes Welker leads the Dolphins in receptions, and remember that good things come to those who play the Texans.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH
– Bench Matt Jones and Reggie Williams of the Jaguars on principal alone after the Jaguars' starting duo combined for 8 yards last week.
– Also keep Santana Moss and other Redskins on the bench against the Jaguars.
– There's no point in starting any receiver in St. Louis aside from Torry Holt, who has half the Rams' WR catches and both the touchdowns.
FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST
Roll the dice on these guys if they're still available in your league:
Maurice Morris of Seattle, Chris Henry of Cincinnati (2 TDs), Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville (103 yards rushing, TD), Charlie Frye of Cleveland (298 yards passing, TD).
WHAT DO I KNOW?
Here's the best and worst of last week's projections:
– Big Hits: I expected success for Carson Palmer (4 TDs) against a brutal Steelers defense. I also saw good things for Brett Favre (340 yards, 3 TDs), Roy Williams (138 yards, TD) and Darrell Jackson (2 TDs).
– Big Misses: I thought Daunte Culpepper (1 rushing TD, 0 passing TDs) would finally wake up. I also expected a rebound by Tiki Barber (64 yards rushing, 0 TDs), as well as failure for Lee Evans (107 yards) and Edgerrin James (94 yards, TD).