View Full Version : 2nd Place in AFC West = Wild Card Birth
cdcox
10-30-2006, 11:14 AM
I noticed something interesting from my program.
If you sum all the odds for the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bronco's qualifying for the 5th or 6th seed in the playoffs, it totals to 100.96%
Further if you compare each team's chances of finishing 2nd to their chances of making a WC, they are almost equal for all 3 teams:
Denver: odds of finishing 2nd 24.08; odds of WC 24.96
San Diego: odds of finishing 2nd 44.12; odds of WC 42.18
Kansas City: odds of finishing 2nd 31.74; odds of WC 33.82
There are a few cases where the second place team would miss the playoffs but those are balcanced by cases where the 3rd place team would make the playoffs too.
Things could change as the season progresses, but for now, getting ahead of Denver or San Diego is the key for a WC. Getting ahead of both is key for the division championship (duh).
I noticed something interesting from my program.
If you sum all the odds for the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bronco's qualifying for the 5th or 6th seed in the playoffs, it totals to 100.96%
So....... 0.999999... does in fact equal 1?
cdcox
10-30-2006, 11:25 AM
So....... 0.999999... does in fact equal 1?
Absolutely. DanT said so.
Rain Man
10-30-2006, 11:31 AM
I wonder how this changes my top ten goals.
Mr. Laz
10-30-2006, 11:36 AM
we are probably gonna have to beat the chargers in san diego to make the playoffs.
unless one of the dolts/donks collapse
i doubt it because Marty doesn't collapse until the playoffs.
Molitoth
10-30-2006, 11:50 AM
Whats the point of making the playoff's if we can't hold Manning's jock? The team needs to get thier shit together before even thinking Wild Card.
jidar
10-30-2006, 11:53 AM
Whats the point of making the playoff's if we can't hold Manning's jock? The team needs to get thier shit together before even thinking Wild Card.
You might want to kill yourself in the face
Calcountry
10-30-2006, 12:01 PM
Whats the point of making the playoff's if we can't hold Manning's jock? The team needs to get thier shit together before even thinking Wild Card.The great Denver D couldn't hold his jock yesterday, in their house.
Manning has the keys to Incestco.
cdcox
10-30-2006, 12:10 PM
we are probably gonna have to beat the chargers in san diego to make the playoffs.
unless one of the dolts/donks collapse
i doubt it because Marty doesn't collapse until the playoffs.
I still think our best chance is win out at home.
Road games are St. Louis, Miami, Cleveland, San Diego, and Oakland.
Winning 3/5 gets us to 11-5 and winning 2/5 gets us to 10-6. Even if one of those losses is to SD, 11-5 is about 99.5% chance of us getting in and 10-6 is better than 85%, according to my software.
Hammock Parties
10-30-2006, 01:03 PM
Considering that San Diego and Denver have to play each other twice and we have a game against each of them left, I like our chances!
Basileus777
10-30-2006, 01:11 PM
I'm just worried about next week. I don't think we match up all that well against the Rams. Power rushing and vertical passing attacks have killed us this year, and I don't see us stopping the Rams offense. I don't know if we can win a shootout at St. Louis. Considering how we play on the road I don't think we should be taking this game for granted.
htismaqe
10-30-2006, 01:13 PM
I'm just worried about next week. I don't think we match up all that well against the Rams. Power rushing and vertical passing attacks have killed us this year, and I don't see us stopping the Rams offense. I don't know if we can win a shootout at St. Louis. Considering how we play on the road I don't think we should be taking this game for granted.
Power running has not been the issue - misdirection running has.
They're not gonna line up and run straight at us, we can stop that. It's the shifty backs that we struggle with most...
I'm just worried about next week. I don't think we match up all that well against the Rams. Power rushing and vertical passing attacks have killed us this year, and I don't see us stopping the Rams offense. I don't know if we can win a shootout at St. Louis. Considering how we play on the road I don't think we should be taking this game for granted.
Bulger has been great this year. 12 TDs and 1 INT. We need to get some pressure on him.
Basileus777
10-30-2006, 01:17 PM
Power running has not been the issue - misdirection running has.
They're not gonna line up and run straight at us, we can stop that. It's the shifty backs that we struggle with most...We couldn't stop Rudi Johnson and Najeh Davenpor. I don't see Steven Jackson being any different.
htismaqe
10-30-2006, 01:19 PM
We couldn't stop Rudi Johnson and Najeh Davenport.
We struggled with Rudi because they went to a no huddle at a point in the game where the defense was on their heels, due to the offense not being able to stay on the field.
We struggled with Najeh Davenport at the end of a game where we got totally shellshocked and again, the offense wasn't able to stay on the field.
Nzoner
10-30-2006, 01:25 PM
Sorry to be negative here but bottom line is KC has beaten 1 really good team,1 team decimated with injuries to their stars,and 2 not so good teams and all but 1 of the 4 wins has gone down to the end.
Again,not wanting to be negative,I'm happy that the team is 4-3 and showing some heart but no way in hell am I even thinking play-offs just yet,in fact until they beat some more quality opponents I'm not sure I even want to think about this team in the play-offs.
tiptap
10-30-2006, 02:26 PM
I look at all these mistakes and still winning as important in getting them out of the way. Down the stretch, with momentum building, few will want to be playing us. Now does that mean we can look back St. Louis . . . Oh no. That is the best team out of the NFC west and they are looking to put distance between themselves and the the rest of the division. It will be a game this next sunday.
bkkcoh
10-30-2006, 02:38 PM
I look at all these mistakes and still winning as important in getting them out of the way. Down the stretch, with momentum building, few will want to be playing us. ....
I kind of look at it in another way, a lesser team would have let a couple of plays like that let the game get way out of hand. And would have ended up losing the game and being tremendously embarrassed in the process.
ChiefsCountry
10-30-2006, 03:10 PM
I feel we will beat St. Louis but lose in Miami.
I agree that we have a lot of work to do, but the good news is we're still winning while making mistakes.
At least we're starting to get healthy and come together a bit. I don't know if it'll be the Chiefs, but every single year, you get to around midseason... and there's usually a team or two with great records who fade, and there are a couple who are laying back a bit that get hot and finish strong into the playoffs. Last year that team was Pittsburgh. Maybe we can do it this year. We definitely have an easier schedule than that last 6 game stretch against winning teams last year.
Easy 6
10-30-2006, 03:19 PM
I'm just worried about next week. I don't think we match up all that well against the Rams. Power rushing and vertical passing attacks have killed us this year, and I don't see us stopping the Rams offense. I don't know if we can win a shootout at St. Louis. Considering how we play on the road I don't think we should be taking this game for granted.
I dunno, just cant see jackson running wild on us, we have a lot of experience against 6'1" 230pd. backs & ours is better. I think we stuff "Inaction" jackson, far more worried about our backfield containing bruce, holt & curtis, Walls on curtis is especially scary. If we dont get real pressure it could be a long day, the bright note there is that the lambs interior O line is nothing special.
Brock
10-30-2006, 03:21 PM
Sorry to be negative here but bottom line is KC has beaten 1 really good team,1 team decimated with injuries to their stars,and 2 not so good teams and all but 1 of the 4 wins has gone down to the end.
Again,not wanting to be negative,I'm happy that the team is 4-3 and showing some heart but no way in hell am I even thinking play-offs just yet,in fact until they beat some more quality opponents I'm not sure I even want to think about this team in the play-offs.
I don't think this is a playoff team either. They beat SD, but SD has won about 1 game at Arrowhead in 10 years. The rest of their wins have come against some pretty weak teams.
Well part of it is, I don't think the AFC is as strong as past years. I'm not so sure the NFC isn't the better conference right now. I don't think this Chiefs team would match up as well against the AFC the previous 2-3 years. But right now there's nobody that stands out as truly superior like the Steelers, Pats, and Colts of past years. Denver, New England and Indy all have big question marks.
chiefsfan1963
10-30-2006, 03:43 PM
we have to go 7-2 the rest of the way or we are not going to play in January.
StcChief
10-30-2006, 03:59 PM
I don't think this is a playoff team either. They beat SD, but SD has won about 1 game at Arrowhead in 10 years. The rest of their wins have come against some pretty weak teams.
That was part of our leverage this year with NFC-W teams. Just beat
Lambs sweep is complete.
Take weak Miami team in Fl.
take Raiders at home
Take Dungver at home.
Beat bad Cleveland away.
Beat Ravens at home.
@SD ? tough.
@Faiders.... should be a W but they have a way of biting us in blackhole.
Jags at home?
Brock
10-30-2006, 04:03 PM
That was part of our leverage this year with NFC-W teams. Just beat
Lambs sweep is complete.
Take weak Miami team in Fl.
take Raiders at home
Take Dungver at home.
Beat bad Cleveland away.
Beat Ravens at home.
@SD ? tough.
@Faiders.... should be a W but they have a way of biting us in blackhole.
Jags at home?
I see them winning about half of those games. The ones at home.
wutamess
10-30-2006, 04:08 PM
cox, I'm interested in your program...
Can you bring stats from last couple of years midseason statics to see if your software actually held true in most cases.
Not bashing... just want to know the track record of the software and want to know if all of this CAN really be figured out by statistics.
Molitoth
10-30-2006, 05:00 PM
You might want to kill yourself in the face
With the results of this thread, you just killed yourself in the face.
:p
cdcox
10-30-2006, 06:33 PM
cox, I'm interested in your program...
Can you bring stats from last couple of years midseason statics to see if your software actually held true in most cases.
Not bashing... just want to know the track record of the software and want to know if all of this CAN really be figured out by statistics.
Here's one from week 8 last year, plus two summary evaluations from 2002 and 2003, back before I had on line software. Enjoy.
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