If We're Not 8-3 On Thanksgiving Night Will We Still Have A Chance?

[RINGLEADER]

I think if we don't win the next three games we 're not gonna make the post-season.

Thoughts?

[DaFace]

I get tired of ultimatums like this. Would we like to win the next three games? Sure. If we lose one of them, are we out? No.

[DaFace]

For what it's worth, according to cdcox's software, we currently have a 57% chance of making the postseason. If we lose to Miami, our chances drop to 43%.

[mac58]

one game at a time. . .we can lose one 2 or 3 more games this year depending on scenario. ..

[morphius]

I get tired of ultimatums like this. Would we like to win the next three games? Sure. If we lose one of them, are we out? No.
Every game in the NFL is a big game, but we have nothing but AFC opponents left. We need to to beat the Raiders, but other then that we can lost 1 without it hurting too badly.

[KCGridironBeast]

Absolutely we can make the playoffs if we don't win the next three games. If we lose in Miami, we will need to win all three home games against Denver, Baltimore, and Jacksonville. That is assuming that the game in San Diego will be a loss. Winning all three at home will be tough, but it's certainly not impossible considering how well this team plays at Arrowhead. I believe that if the team takes care of business on the road against the three weak teams (Miami, Cleveland, Oakland), all they will need to do is win against either Baltimore or Denver (not necessarily both) and beat Jacksonville and we're in.

[mcan]

It really doesn't matter WHO we lose to, as long as we don't lose any more than 2 more games.


If we lose 3 more games, there's still a chance, but we definately can't lose to Denver or San Diego.

[NJ Chief Fan]

one game at a time

[siberian khatru]

I'll say this: If we lose to Miami, I would be more than happy to exchange it for that win St. Louis. If we had to lose one of these two road games, the NFC game would've hurt us a lot less.

Having beaten St. Louis, we better go ahead and beat Miami.

[KCGridironBeast]

I think our loss to Pittsburgh is going to doom our conference record, so I don't think it really matters too much whether we beat AFC or NFC teams the rest of the way, although of course I'd prefer it to be the AFC teams.

The bottom line is that at the very least, we need to stay within one game of Jacksonville by the time we reach Week 17. If that pans out, the game on December 31st will be a win-and-you're-in deal for both the Chiefs and Jags. Luckily for us, we're going to win.

[Mr. Kotter]

Yes, but it becomes more of an uphill battle at that point.....road victories in the playoffs won't be easy (despite what Pittsburg did last year.)

[Warrior5]

I'll respond after Sunday.

[cdcox]

Yes, but it becomes more of an uphill battle at that point.....road victories in the playoffs won't be easy (despite what Pittsburg did last year.)

Very unlikely that we are going to beat Denver for the Division title, since they are essentially two games up on us under all of the most likely tiebreaker scenarios. So we are going to be a road show in the playoffs, if we make it.

[chop]

one game at a time


Just curious, why do fans say one game at a time to each other? It's not like we are playing the games and we may overlook another team. We can talk about a game coming up 5 weeks away and it wouldn't make a difference to how well the team was going to perform this week.

[morphius]

I think our loss to Pittsburgh is going to doom our conference record, so I don't think it really matters too much whether we beat AFC or NFC teams the rest of the way, although of course I'd prefer it to be the AFC teams.

Well, being we already played our 4 NFC games, all the rest are AFC...

[plbrdude]

we should prolly quit now while we're above .500

[siberian khatru]

Just curious, why do fans say one game at a time to each other? It's not like we are playing the games and we may overlook another team. We can talk about a game coming up 5 weeks away and it wouldn't make a difference to how well the team was going to perform this week.

It means don't get your hopes up by taking something for granted. This franchise has repeatedly shown it can lose games it "should've" won -- although that's kind of the nature of the NFL anyway. People expect to beat somebody or be a certain record at some point down the road ("We should be so-and-so when we face Denver") and then melt down when the Chiefs don't meet that expectation ("Goddammit we should've been 10-4 heading into that game ...")

You especially see it coming off home wins. We look good and people think the "real" Chiefs have emerged, therefore we should win all the "easy" games until we face a "tough" opponent. I used to do that. Now, I don't look past each week. I"m not looking to be 7-3 or 10-6. I'm just looking to be 6-3 after this week.

[cdcox]

It means don't get your hopes up by taking something for granted. This franchise has repeatedly shown it can lose games it "should've" won -- although that's kind of the nature of the NFL anyway. People expect to beat somebody or be a certain record at some point down the road ("We should be so-and-so when we face Denver") and then melt down when the Chiefs don't meet that expectation ("Goddammit we should've been 10-4 heading into that game ...")

You especially see it coming off home wins. We look good and people think the "real" Chiefs have emerged, therefore we should win all the "easy" games until we face a "tough" opponent. I used to do that. Now, I don't look past each week. I"m not looking to be 7-3 or 10-6. I'm just looking to be 6-3 after this week.

True fans always look ahead so that they can relish the glorious pain of having your heart ripped out when the Chiefs do not live up to expectations. It's a key part of the overall experience.

[siberian khatru]

True fans always look ahead so that they can relish the glorious pain of having your heart ripped out when the Chiefs do not live up to expectations. It's a key part of the overall experience.

ROFL

Been there, done that.

ROFL

[siberian khatru]

I'm just trying to pace myself. :D

[DaneMcCloud]

The Chiefs will need to be 11-5 to make the playoffs. 10-6 didn't do it last year and it won't do it this year. Denver, NE, Balt are already 6-2, Indy's 8-0, Jax & KC are 5-3. One of those teams isn't going to make it and even though there are plenty of head to head games coming up, I believe that anything less than 11-5 and you're sitting at home.

[chiefsfan1963]

one game at a time. . .we can lose one 2 or 3 more games this year depending on scenario. ..

we lose 3 we're out. 10-6 will not be enough IMO. If we can't beat Miami we probably not a legit playoff team. Beating Miami will truly show me that we are legit playoff team.

[Mr. Kotter]

Very unlikely that we are going to beat Denver for the Division title, since they are essentially two games up on us under all of the most likely tiebreaker scenarios. So we are going to be a road show in the playoffs, if we make it.

Your confidence in the Donks and Plummer is disturbing. I honestly think they are gonna collapse.....10-6 at best.

:D

[cdcox]

The Chiefs will need to be 11-5 to make the playoffs. 10-6 didn't do it last year and it won't do it this year. Denver, NE, Balt are already 6-2, Indy's 8-0, Jax & KC are 5-3. One of those teams isn't going to make it and even though there are plenty of head to head games coming up, I believe that anything less than 11-5 and you're sitting at home.

If Jacksonville drops to 2 out of 3 against Indy, NYG, and NE (very possible), then a week 17 KC over Jacksonville victory would give KC the 10-6 tiebreaker, barring a very strong finish by Cincinnati. That's just one scenario. But overall, our chances at 10-6 are much better than even. For that matter 11-5 is not a lock. You have to look at specifics, not generalities.

[siberian khatru]

What strikes me about the AFC playoff race is how many teams appear to be out of it: Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Houston, Oakland. All dead, barring winning out. How many NFC teams are legitimately dead? Four? Five?

Let's say Indy, Baltimore and NE win their divisions. That leaves Denver, SD, Jax, Cincy, the Jets and KC fighting for 3 spots. Six teams for three spots? I can live with that.

[cdcox]

What strikes me about the AFC playoff race is how many teams appear to be out of it: Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Houston, Oakland. All dead, barring winning out. How many NFC teams are legitimately dead? Four? Five?

Let's say Indy, Baltimore and NE win their divisions. That leaves Denver, SD, Jax, Cincy, the Jets and KC fighting for 3 spots. Six teams for three spots? I can live with that.

Now you're looking ahead and are doomed to get your heart ripped out.

I think there are 6 NFC teams that each have less than a 5% shot at making it: Washington, San Francisco, Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa and Arizona. I think it will take 9 wins to seriously compete for a playoff spot in the NFC, so the 3-5 teams would need to go 6-2 to do it. To me, that puts Washington, San Francisco, and Green Bay on the outside, but yeah, they could still get back in the race, unlike say Buffalo in the AFC. If we say the Giants and Bears are in that leaves 8 teams fighting for 4 spots. But very likely NO and Seattle will take two of those spots, so that leaves 6 fighting for 2.

[KChiefs1]

If the Chiefs are 8-3 on Thanksgiving night...I'd go so far as to say they'll win the AFC West.

[DenverChief]

For what it's worth, according to cdcox's software, we currently have a 57% chance of making the postseason. If we lose to Miami, our chances drop to 43%.


I thought they said last week that teams that go 5-3 are at a 65% of making the playoffs and 4-4 teams that drops to 40%

[DaFace]

I thought they said last week that teams that go 5-3 are at a 65% of making the playoffs and 4-4 teams that drops to 40%

That's just a general statement about the NFL's history. Seedy's software takes into account the actual situation that we're in this season. In other words, it takes into account the fact that we're one game behind San Diego and Denver, that we're competing with Jacksonville and Cincy, etc.

[chiefqueen]

IMO we need to 8-3 giong into the Denver game to still have a shot at the division. But that may be a long shot at best because Denver's final 3 games are CINN, @AZ, and SF.

We just need to keep within a game of Jax so when we beat them New Year's Eve we will get the tiebreaker. Don't worry about the East and North, those divisions will not get any WC's.

Forget about a 1st round bye for KC.......it ain't happening.

I still think, barring a 3 or 4 game losing streak by SD or KC, both AFC wild cards are coming from the West.

[Halfcan]

I think we stomp Miami and then do the same to the Faders and Cheatin Donks.

[OldTownChief]

We will lose this weekend and still have a shot.
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