Chiefs D ranked last

[siberian khatru]

Vs. the "other receiver," i.e., guys who don't start.

So says a blurb in a Rotoworld update on Kevin Curtis. They cite Football Outsiders (www.footballoutsiders.com).

This sounds like a Football Prospectus-kind of stat I'd never heard of before. I'd never seen that Outsiders site before. It's full of boutique "sabermetric" stats. You can get carried away with that stuff, slice things too thinly or attempt to measure things that aren't that measurable, but ... it's kind of interesting.

They've got KC ranked No.1 vs. No. 1 WRs and No. 12 vs. No. 2's, but 32nd vs. "other WRs." We're 18th vs. TEs and 12th vs. RBs (I'm sure that took a hit last week against Jackson).

[The Bad Guy]

That absolutely shouldn't happen when Surtain plays the slot on 3rd WRs.

[tiptap]

FootballOutsiders had similar take on KC defense last year. This team tends to blitz on 3rd down when the other 3rd or 4th WR is in. And that formation is much more total success total failure. The added statistic to really evaluate this would be the amount of times this takes place compared to the rest of the league.

I had thought with the Cover 2 scheme that we would see improvement here. But offenses from last year will try to repeat the success they had last year.

[tiptap]

The sack result with our blitzing notions would not show up in this statistic as the ball was never passed in any direction to evaluate the success of passing toward any WR.

[boogblaster]

Nickel package sucks..needs someone else to work right.............

[siberian khatru]

The sack result with our blitzing notions would not show up in this statistic as the ball was never passed in any direction to evaluate the success of passing toward any WR.

I'm not sure it's relevant. I think it's simply designed to measure how effective a team is in covering all receivers WHEN THE BALL IS THROWN. Does a sack result from good coverage? Or from a good pass rush? How could you separate the two to reflect it in this stat? Set an arbitrary time limit of 3.0 seconds or something as the dividing line between good rush/good coverage? If a sack results after 3.0 seconds, you credit the coverage and the stat improves across the board for all receivers?

I think it's easier to just measure what happens when the ball is thrown. According to this stat, we give up the most yards to "non-starting" receivers when the QB gets the ball off. I think that has some value -- who do we normally put on "non-starting" WRs, what kind of coverages do we employ in situations that involve more than 2 wideouts, etc.

[htismaqe]

That absolutely shouldn't happen when Surtain plays the slot on 3rd WRs.

Exactly.

Kneejerk reaction would be to blame the "nickelback" - ie. Lenny Walls. But Walls has been lining up outside with Surtain in the slot...

[siberian khatru]

Actually, I may see what tiptap is saying: How many times do we sack the QB when there are "non-starting" WRs on the field? That would be relevant.

[tiptap]

Your earlier comments are correct here. In dissecting the play the connection of the total effort of any down can be lost. What the statistic does show is that we are vulnerable compared to all the other teams in this regard. We would ask then is this true for the whole of defensive play and conclude that that would be false. It is at that point we ask what is the character of this defense that would account for the poor showing in this specific area. I strongly suggest it is the combination of cover 2 or blitzing with focus on the top two WR that leaves drop off passes including 3rd or 4th WR. This is also a reflection of having put offenses in a position to have to pass in order to get a first down.

[kcxiv]

Well Surtain doesnt actually cover any 1 person, gooo Zone Coverage. They dont really let the Cb's man up anymore.

[Direckshun]

That's perfectly fine with me.

If we have to force teams to beat us with their No. 4 receiver instead of their No. 1, I'll take it.

[Hootie]

our secondary is horrible.

I'm not putting the blame on any one guy...they're all playing poorly.

[tk13]

I was gonna say I'm not sure that's a bad stat. Maybe not great, but at the end of the day you're going to allow some receiving yards, at least we're making their 3rd or 4th option beat us.

[Hootie]

Gunther, from now on, when it's 3rd and over 7...should just bring the friggin' blitz everytime...

It's either that or they find a guy wide open 15 yards down the field.

[listopencil]

That's perfectly fine with me.

If we have to force teams to beat us with their No. 4 receiver instead of their No. 1, I'll take it.


That was my immediate reaction. You're not going to keep teams from making completions. If you are moving those completions over to WR's that are deeper into the QB's progression of reads then you are doing something right.

[L.A. Chieffan]

Torry Holt only had 50 yards last week and Bruce didn't do much. Id rather have a 'Kevin Curtis" type getting the best of us once in a while than a player like Holt burning us ALL the time.

[siberian khatru]

I was gonna say I'm not sure that's a bad stat. Maybe not great, but at the end of the day you're going to allow some receiving yards, at least we're making their 3rd or 4th option beat us.

No. 1 vs. No. 1s is pretty impressive, IMO. Although I guess it depends on how you define No. 1 receiver (team leader in catches? yards? reputation?).

What No. 1s have we played? Holt/Bruce ... Darrell Jackson ... Rod Smith (or Javon Walker?) ... Hines Ward ... Boldin ... Chad Johnson ...

Not a bad list.

[CupidStunt]

Damn good list, really. I dunno any other team in the league that has faced receivers close to the caliber of Torry Holt, D-Jack, Walker, Ward, Boldin/Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson.

Throw in Moss who we'll face twice and you have one hell of a list.

[Mr. Laz]

might have something to do with the fact that the #1's and #2's run deeper routes ..... right into our soft umbrella coverage.

while the "other receivers" generally run underneath and crossing pattern stuff, which we seem to be intent on letting them make the catch and then we make the tackle.

[Easy 6]

Those guys are splitting hairs, in-depth stats are great but they can go overboard. Sounds like these #'s have been pretty well debunked already. The more i see us in Cover2 the more i like it, teams can move pretty well between the 20's, but once in the red zone the 2 inevitably tightens.

I still have high expectations for this year but next year will be a blast, we should have the 2 down pat, i'm sure a top-flight DT will be acquired and who knows what other talent will be brought in.

I love what Herm is doing.

[Hog Rider]

What's our stat on "Jackin' Up" the # 3 receiver?

[Thig Lyfe]

Gunther, from now on, when it's 3rd and over 7...should just bring the friggin' blitz everytime...

It's either that or they find a guy wide open 15 yards down the field.

Or both.