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Wile_E_Coyote
04-14-2007, 06:06 PM
Breakdown of the schedule, fantasy style http://m1.2mdn.net/viewad/817-grey.gif (http://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=v8/3535/0/0/%2a/x;44306;0-0;0;10732674;238-150/30;0/0/0;u=Rhsw9gq0HIgAAFIcHsE;~sscs=%3f) http://m1.2mdn.net/viewad/817-grey.gif (http://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=v8/3534/0/0/%2a/x;44306;0-0;0;10732674;238-150/30;0/0/0;u=Rhsw9gq0HIgAAFIcHsE;~sscs=%3f)http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/sponsorships.nfl.com/fs/stories;arena=nfl;feat=stories;type=psa;user=Anonymous;cust=no;vip=no;sz=150x30;tile=5;ord=891601176 595124? (http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/sponsorships.nfl.com/fs/stories;arena=nfl;feat=stories;type=psa;user=Anonymous;cust=no;vip=no;sz=150x30;tile=5;ord=891601176 595124?)
By Michael Fabiano (http://www.nfl.com/writers/fabiano)
NFL.com Fantasy Expert



(April 12, 2007) -- The release of the NFL schedule is one of the most important events of the offseason, but it can sometimes be overlooked in the world of fantasy football.

After all, it doesn't matter who is on the other side of the line from Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson or Steve Smith, because these studs will remain prominent starters across the board nonetheless. But in the case of most other players, the schedule can be an important part of determining their draft value.

Unlike normal schedule breakdowns, which are based on records from the previous season, our in-depth look is statistical, examines how teams did versus the pass and the run, and is based on the defensive rank of their opponents. For example, the Indianapolis Colts finished second versus the pass and 32nd versus the run last season, so a team that will face them this season received a total of 34 points -- two for the pass and 32 for the run. In this formulation, the teams that finished with the most total points from the pass and run categories have the most attractive schedules. Much like our offensive-line rankings, this schedule breakdown is also a useful draft tool when it comes time to make a final and educated decision between players who have similar value.

1. Carolina Panthers (577 points): The Panthers have the 10th easiest schedule versus the pass and the fourth easiest versus the run, which is terrific news for Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and the backfield duo of DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. Games against weak run defenses like Indianapolis, St. Louis, Tennessee and Houston make Williams an even better sleeper choice.

2. Arizona Cardinals (576 points): Matt Leinart, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald should do well on the stat sheets; the Cardinals have the 12th easiest slate versus the pass. Edgerrin James will also see a slight increase in value; he faces the third easiest run slate, which includes matchups against porous run defenses like St. Louis (2), Cleveland, New Orleans and Detroit.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (569 points): The Buccaneers face the 16th easiest schedule versus the pass, and that's a positive for Jeff Garcia and Chris Simms. Where this team could thrive is on the ground; it has the second easiest schedule versus the run. That should add to the draft value of Cadillac Williams, who battles Indianapolis, St. Louis, Tennessee, Washington and Houston.

4. San Francisco 49ers (557 points): The departure of former offensive coordinator Norv Turner was a significant loss, but the Niners will face the fourth easiest slate versus the pass, and that will be a real positive for Alex Smith. Contests against St. Louis (2), Cleveland, New Orleans and Seattle (2) also bode well for the talented Frank Gore, who will face the 15th easiest slate versus the run.

5. St. Louis Rams (556 points): The Rams face the 23rd hardest schedule versus the run, but that still won't hurt the value of Steven Jackson. Where the Rams offense will make some noise is through the air, as it faces the NFL's easiest schedule versus the pass. Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and Randy McMichael should produce against Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Francisco (2) and Dallas.

T-6. Chicago Bears (554 points): Cedric Benson has seen a serious increase in value after the trade of Thomas Jones, but he will have to compete against the 20th hardest slate versus the run. The news is better for Rex Grossman, Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad, who have the third easiest schedule versus the pass and face the likes of Minnesota (2) and the N.Y. Giants.

T-6. Jacksonville Jaguars (554 points): The Jaguars face the 28th most difficult slate versus the pass, so it could be hard for Byron Leftwich to produce on a consistent basis. However, the backfield duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew should find success versus Indianapolis (2), Tennessee (2), Buffalo, Oakland, Houston (2) and the NFL's easiest slate versus the run.

8. Baltimore Ravens (551 points): Steve McNair, Mark Clayton and Todd Heap face the 15th easiest schedule versus the pass, but it's the newest member of the offense that should produce as a result of the opposition. Willis McGahee faces the seventh easiest schedule versus the run and will be a great starter against Indianapolis, St. Louis, Cleveland (2), Buffalo and the N.Y. Jets.

T-9. New York Giants (548 points): The backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns faces the 17th hardest slate versus the run, but Jacobs remains a viable sleeper candidate. The player to watch based on the opposition is Eli Manning, who faces the eighth easiest pass slate and should produce against Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit, Dallas (2) and Washington (2).

T-9. Seattle Seahawks (548 points): The Seahawks were riddled with injuries last season, but Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander and Darrell Jackson should all be back to 100 percent health in 2007. This valuable trio should produce some solid stats based on the level of their opposition; the offense faces the 11th easiest schedule versus the pass and 12th easiest versus the run.

T-11. Atlanta Falcons (544 points): New head coach Bob Petrino will look to use more three-receiver sets next season, but his Falcons will have to be more consistent versus the 19th hardest slate versus the pass. The team does have the sixth easiest slate versus the run, so Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn should roll against Indianapolis, St. Louis, Tennessee and New Orleans (2).

T-11. New Orleans Saints (544 points): The Saints face the 14th easiest schedule versus the pass, so Drew Brees and Marques Colston will have their share of monster stat lines. The skilled duo of Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister should also thrive versus the 11th easiest run schedule, which includes dates against Indianapolis, St. Louis, Tennessee, Philadelphia and Houston.

13. Philadelphia Eagles (543 points): Whenever Donovan McNabb returns from an injured knee, he should produce some big numbers against the likes of Minnesota, the N.Y. Giants (2), Dallas (2), Washington (2) and the seventh easiest slate versus the pass. The Eagles face the 21st most difficult slate versus the run, but Brian Westbrook still remains a first-round choice.

14. Minnesota Vikings (541 points): The Vikings don't have much in the way of draft value in their pass attack, but Tarvaris Jackson and Troy Williamson do face the sixth easiest schedule versus the pass. Chester Taylor and the team's ground attack have a much more difficult task; it faces Chicago (2), San Diego, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver and the 22nd hardest run schedule.

15. Dallas Cowboys (535 points): Tony Romo will remain a No. 1 fantasy quarterback because of his own skills and the talent around him, but he could have some inconsistent weeks against the 21st hardest slate versus the pass. However, Julius Jones and Marion Barber should do well against St. Louis, Buffalo, Washington (2), Philadelphia (2) and the 10th easiest run schedule.

16. Washington Redskins (531 points): The Redskins face the 29th hardest schedule versus the run, but Clinton Portis will still remain a borderline first- or second-round selection. Where the offense could thrive is through the air; it faces the fifth easiest schedule versus the pass. That's terrific news for the likes of Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and sleeper candidate Jason Campbell.

17. Miami Dolphins (530 points): The first season under new head coach Cam Cameron will be a challenge; the Dolphins will face the 24th hardest pass slate without a solid quarterback at the helm of the offense. Ronnie Brown (and maybe Ricky Williams) should help against Cleveland, Buffalo (2), Washington, Philadelphia, Oakland, the N.Y. Jets (2) and the ninth easiest run slate.

18. Green Bay Packers (522 points): Brett Favre should have a nice statistical season for the Packers, who will face the N.Y. Giants, Minnesota (2), Detroit (2), Dallas and the ninth easiest pass slate. The same can't be said for Vernand Morency or whoever lands the top spot in the team's backfield; the team faces Chicago (2), Minnesota (2) and the 30th hardest slate versus the run.

T-19. Cincinnati Bengals (514 points): The Bengals face a difficult pass schedule (25th), but that won't affect the immense value of Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Rudi Johnson should continue to find success out of the backfield; he'll face St. Louis, Tennessee, Cleveland (2), Buffalo, the N.Y. Jets and the 14th easiest schedule versus the run.

T-19. Detroit Lions (514 points): Whether its Kevin Jones or Tatum Bell, the Lions could have problems on the ground next season against the NFL's hardest slate versus the run. The one positive is the team's second easiest pass slate, which should make offensive coordinator Mike Martz even more aggressive and will add to the value of both Jon Kitna and Roy Williams.

T-19. Pittsburgh Steelers (514 points): The Steelers won't have a significant advantage through the air or on the ground based on their opponents. Willie Parker should continue to find success against St. Louis, Cleveland (2), Buffalo and Seattle and the 16th easiest run schedule, but Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward will have some bad weeks versus the 20th hardest pass schedule.

22. New England Patriots (508 points): Tom Brady will remain one of the most valuable quarterbacks in fantasy football, but he faces Indianapolis, Miami (2), Baltimore, Buffalo (2) and the 30th hardest pass schedule. The opposition is much less formidable against the run (8th), and that will make Laurence Maroney well worth a first- or second-round choice across the board.

23. New York Jets (507 points): The addition of Thomas Jones should improve a Jets offense that ranked 20th on the ground last season, but he'll have to face the 19th hardest slate versus the run. The opposition is even harder on Chad Pennington, who will face Miami (2), Baltimore, Buffalo (2), Philadelphia, New England (2) and the 23rd most difficult slate versus the pass.

24. Oakland Raiders (506 points): The Raiders will look to throw the football much more often under new head coach Lane Kiffin, and it's a real positive that the offense will face Minnesota, Tennessee, Detroit, Houston and the 13th easiest schedule versus the pass. It could be harder to run; LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes face the 26th most difficult schedule versus the run.

25. Houston Texans (505 points): Ahman Green's status as a viable No. 2 fantasy back remains stable based on the opposition, which combined is the fifth easiest run slate in the league. The schedule isn't as attractive for Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, who will face Indianapolis (2), New Orleans, Carolina, Miami, Jacksonville (2) and the NFL's hardest slate versus the pass.

26. Kansas City Chiefs (503 points): Whether it's Trent Green, Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle at the helm of the offense, the Chiefs will face the 17th hardest schedule versus the pass. The task will be even tougher for Larry Johnson against Minnesota, Jacksonville, Chicago, San Diego (2) and the 24th hardest run schedule, but he'll still remain one of the top three overall choices.

27. Tennessee Titans (494 points): There's a lot of excitement around Vince Young, but the versatile quarterback will have his hands full against Oakland, Indianapolis (2), New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville (2) and the 31st hardest pass slate. LenDale White or whoever takes the top spot on the Titans' depth chart will face the 13th easiest schedule when it comes to the run.

T-28. Cleveland Browns (493 points): The Browns don't have much value at the quarterback position, so it matters little that the offense faces the 18th hardest pass schedule. What does matter is that Jamal Lewis must battle Baltimore (2), Pittsburgh (2), New England, Miami and the 27th hardest run schedule. He's a prime candidate to be a serious statistical disappointment.

T-28. Denver Broncos (493 points): Jay Cutler has a ton of potential in the offense of head coach Mike Shanahan, but his value is hurt a bit as he faces Oakland (2), Indianapolis, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Chicago and the 29th hardest pass slate. The Broncos also face the 18th hardest run slate, but it's hard to reduce the value of new starter Travis Henry in Denver's backfield heaven.

30. San Diego Chargers (486 points): Nothing short of an appearance of the cover of Madden 2008 will hurt the value of LaDainian Tomlinson, but we still must note that he faces Minnesota, Baltimore, New England, Chicago, Jacksonville and the 27th hardest run schedule. It's not much easier for his quarterback, Philip Rivers, who will have to battle the 25th hardest pass schedule.

31. Indianapolis Colts (481 points): Not even the best defenses could stop Peyton Manning last season, so the fact that he will face Oakland, New Orleans, Carolina, Baltimore, Jacksonville (2), New England and the 26th hardest pass slate won't hurt his value. The Colts also have the 28th hardest run slate in 2007, but Joseph Addai will remain a popular first- or second-round choice.

32. Buffalo Bills (465 points): J.P. Losman has some potential and Lee Evans is a borderline No. 1 or 2 fantasy wideout, but this duo will have a difficult road against the 22nd hardest pass schedule. It's even worse for Anthony Thomas or whoever starts in the backfield, as the Bills face Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England (2), Miami, Dallas and the 31st hardest run schedule.

FAX
04-14-2007, 06:09 PM
What does it all mean?

FAX

Wile_E_Coyote
04-14-2007, 06:11 PM
A chance for a good thread hi-jacking

FAX
04-14-2007, 06:20 PM
A chance for a good thread hi-jacking

I would never hijack a thread, Mr. Wile_E_Coyote. Just ask Mr. Phobia.

Seriously, should one take this seriously?

FAX

bdeg
04-14-2007, 06:40 PM
They keep saying things backwards.

31st hardest schedule shouldn't mean it's hard. That should make it the 2nd easiest.