If u think the Chiefs can win without LJ. . .

[percysnow]

we cant. . .

he's not just a running back. . .he is the threat that opens up the pass. . .
he is what defensive Coordinators spend all their time prepping their team for. .
he is on every defenders mind that steps on the field. .

he is much more than just a guy who can be replaced by a bennet or a smith. . .

[POND_OF_RED]

LJ makes us one dimensional. I seem to remember our offense being much better without him. Not saying I don't want him back but to say this is simply retarded.

[Thig Lyfe]

. . .

[Bob Dole]

we cant. . .

he's not just a running back. . .he is the threat that opens up the pass. . .
he is what defensive Coordinators spend all their time prepping their team for. .
he is on every defenders mind that steps on the field. .

he is much more than just a guy who can be replaced by a bennet or a smith. . .

Are you his agent or something?

[percysnow]

LJ makes us one dimensional. I seem to remember our offense being much better without him. Not saying I don't want him back but to say this is simply retarded.


ok then without him we are no dimensional. . .enjoy a season of possibly one of the worst offenses in recent NFL history. . .

[percysnow]

LJ makes us one dimensional. I seem to remember our offense being much better without him. Not saying I don't want him back but to say this is simply retarded.

and its not LJ that made us one dimensional its herm. . .and our offensive Coor

[KcMizzou]

LJ makes us one dimensional. I seem to remember our offense being much better without him. Not saying I don't want him back but to say this is simply retarded. The part in bold is retarded too.

Love him or hate him, he's a hell of a weapon. Let's hope we mix in some play-action this season.

[OnTheWarpath15]

You should hang out with KCChiefsfan88.

[POND_OF_RED]

and its not LJ that made us one dimensional its herm. . .and our offensive Coor
LJ can't block or catch therefore making pass rushing fairly easy for defenses. Herm definitely has a big part to our offensive struggles, but so does LJ. Sorry to break-up your man-crush but he doesn't have that great of an impact to decide if we win or lose (see Colts game)

[percysnow]

LJ can't block or catch therefore making pass rushing fairly easy for defenses. Herm definitely has a big part to our offensive struggles, but so does LJ. Sorry to break-up your man-crush but he doesn't have that great of an impact to decide if we win or lose (see Colts game)

he really does (see Broncos game) (see Cardinals game) (see Rams Game) (see Jags game)ect.. . .and dont blame the colts game on him that was pure coaching and and everyone played like shit from our QB to our Kicker. . .Ur really not that bright are u SEA of RED?

[StcChief]

LJ can't block or catch therefore making pass rushing fairly easy for defenses. Herm definitely has a big part to our offensive struggles, but so does LJ. Sorry to break-up your man-crush but he doesn't have that great of an impact to decide if we win or lose (see Colts game)
LJ still can't catch. Will they open up a bit with Boomer/Wilson for that?
Bennett/Smith/ Priest? if LJ stays a dick and doesn't sign....

Our Different OLine now (hopefully better) Colts game no play calling first half too many drops.

I'd like him by no later than home opener to move us along.

[KcMizzou]

LJ can't block or catch therefore making pass rushing fairly easy for defenses. Herm definitely has a big part to our offensive struggles, but so does LJ. Sorry to break-up your man-crush but he doesn't have that great of an impact to decide if we win or lose (see Colts game)Is it your opinion that we'd be a better team this season without LJ?

[POND_OF_RED]

I am not trying to say LJ is not good...I am just saying it's stupid to say we can't win without him before even seeing what Smith is made of. If I remember right a lot of people thought we couldn't win without Priest a few years back. LJ turned out to carry the load just the same. All I am saying is that if LJ is asking for too much money it is time to give someone else a chance. I get tired of everyone around here thinking LJ is the only player on the team. Our defense will win us games this year...

[POND_OF_RED]

Is it your opinion that we'd be a better team this season without LJ?
Not at all he is the best running back we have but not the only one.

[KcMizzou]

I am not trying to say LJ is not good...I am just saying it's stupid to say we can't win without him before even seeing what Smith is made of. If I remember right a lot of people thought we couldn't win without Priest a few years back. LJ turned out to carry the load just the same. All I am saying is that if LJ is asking for too much money it is time to give someone else a chance. I get tired of everyone around here thinking LJ is the only player on the team. Our defense will win us games this year...I'm not sure we're reading the same posts.

[beer bacon]

LJ makes us one dimensional. I seem to remember our offense being much better without him. Not saying I don't want him back but to say this is simply retarded.

I think it was losing Roaf and our starting QB that made us one dimensional. We were fine in 2005 when LJ had 1700 rushing yards.

[KcMizzou]

Not at all he is the best running back we have but not the only one.True enough.

He's the only proven one. (other than Priest, and I'm sure you know what he's facing.)

That's good enough for me, I understand your point.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I think it was losing Roaf and our starting QB that made us one dimensional. We were fine in 2005 when LJ had 1700 rushing yards.

Quit making sense. That's absolutely uncalled for.

[KevB]

I am not trying to say LJ is not good...I am just saying it's stupid to say we can't win without him before even seeing what Smith is made of. If I remember right a lot of people thought we couldn't win without Priest a few years back. LJ turned out to carry the load just the same. All I am saying is that if LJ is asking for too much money it is time to give someone else a chance. I get tired of everyone around here thinking LJ is the only player on the team. Our defense will win us games this year...

LJ was a 1st round pick coming off a 2,000 yard season at Penn St. Smith was a mid round pick who shared time at RB his entire career at Louisville.

LJ is incredibly important to this team winning games this season. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that without him, we're a bottom 6 offense.

[POND_OF_RED]

LJ was a 1st round pick coming off a 2,000 yard season at Penn St. Smith was a mid round pick who shared time at RB his entire career at Louisville.

LJ is incredibly important to this team winning games this season. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that without him, we're a bottom 6 offense.
Priest was undrafted and split time with Ricky Williams during college and he turned out to be pretty productive for us. You can't judge a player by what round we draft him in.

[Mecca]

And what exactly is the team going to win this season? It's not like this is a bowl team.....

If you think Larry Johnson will still be a productive player in 4 years I got some beach front Nevada property to sell you....

[suds79]

we cant. . .

he's not just a running back. . .he is the threat that opens up the pass. . .
he is what defensive Coordinators spend all their time prepping their team for. .
he is on every defenders mind that steps on the field. .

he is much more than just a guy who can be replaced by a bennet or a smith. . .

I can't disagree with a single thing you just said.

Nobody is (or shouldn't be) saying we're better off without LJ. He's clearly one of the top 2 or 3 HBs in the game.

However. This isn't about that. It's about if it makes sense to pay out a big, fat long term contract to a guy who just broke the single season carries record? History would state that it doesn't.

For the record, Larry had a 4.3 yards per carry average last year. That's a far cry from his 5.2 the year before.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

I thank God none of you guys are the GM of the Chiefs. LJ will/deserves a deal and without him, we suck more. We have no clue how this team is going to play until they ACTUALLY play. Your opinion (good or bad) is just that, an opinion. He will not get the figures he wants, but he will be getting a significant amount of cash.

[KcMizzou]

LJ will/deserves a deal and without him, we suck more. We have no clue how this team is going to play until they ACTUALLY play. Your opinion (good or bad) is just that, an opinion. He will not get the figures he wants, but he will be getting a significant amount of cash.I think everyone agrees about that.

[Mecca]

I thank God none of you guys are the GM of the Chiefs. LJ will/deserves a deal and without him, we suck more. We have no clue how this team is going to play until they ACTUALLY play. Your opinion (good or bad) is just that, an opinion. He will not get the figures he wants, but he will be getting a significant amount of cash.

Well when we pay him for a couple years to do nothing like we did Priest you'll see the point...

This just happened with Holmes and everyone wants to do the exact same thing again, you are suppose to learn from this shit.

[Bearcat]

LJ makes us one dimensional. I seem to remember our offense being much better without him. Not saying I don't want him back but to say this is simply retarded.

Wow.

Just.... wow.


Let's see.... 2005. LJ starting, 1700+ yards, #1 offense in the league.
2006.. all of a sudden, we "remember our offense being much better" and we're one dimentional.

So, if LJ was a common factor, what else could have cause the slip in offense? Hmmm.... I'm stumped. There were no changes between those two seasons that could account for our one-dimensional bad offense. Nothing. And he certainly should have been able to run into the pile of Colts and get more yards... I mean, he knew he was getting the ball every down, so what was the problem? Yeah, let's blame it on LJ.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

Well when we pay him for a couple years to do nothing like we did Priest you'll see the point...

This just happened with Holmes and everyone wants to do the exact same thing again, you are suppose to learn from this shit.

I wouldn't have an issue with that. Every dime PH has made to this point he has EARNED. Now that he is injured doesn't take away all the accomplishments he achieved to make that money.

[Mecca]

So you want to pay him for what he was.......that's just a horrible idea with RB's. It's really the last position you should reward for past performance.

Like I said if he played any other position I'd be a lot more willing, he's just far to easy to replace and far to likely to break down.

[KcMizzou]

I wouldn't have an issue with that. Every dime PH has made to this point he has EARNED. Now that he is injured doesn't take away all the accomplishments he achieved to make that money.This is where Mecca makes a distinction between paying a guy for what he will do, vs. what he has done. Honestly, I see his point...

I just have a little more optimism about LJ's production over the next few years.

[KcMizzou]

Damn, Mecca beat me...

[ChiefsfaninPA]

No I want to pay him for what I BELIEVE he will continue to do for a few more years.

[Mecca]

You think LJ will honestly be a productive player for more than another 2 years?

I suspect he'll start showing decline even this year......he averaged what 4.2 last year.....I suspect his YPC drops below 4 this year.

And if he does come in to play all 16 I'll be surprised if he doesn't get injured.

[KcMizzou]

You think LJ will honestly be a productive player for more than another 2 years? Yes, I do.

I suspect he'll start showing decline even this year......he averaged what 4.2 last year.....I suspect his YPC drops below 4 this year.

And if he does come in to play all 16 I'll be surprised if he doesn't get injured. We'll see. I hope you're wrong. And if you're a Chiefs fan, you hope so too.

[Bearcat]

No I want to pay him for what I BELIEVE he will continue to do for a few more years.

That should come in performance-based clauses, not guaranteed money, IMO.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

This is where Mecca makes a distinction between paying a guy for what he will do, vs. what he has done. Honestly, I see his point...

I just have a little more optimism about LJ's production over the next few years.

When PH got his extension, didn't he set the TD record that year? It wasn't Priest that hindered us from reaching the SB all those years. It was Dick and CP not getting defensive help.


Oh, that and we are still paying Gonzalez a lot and no one can argue he is not past his prime. Is he still one of the best? Yes. But if we used your theory he wouldn't have received another dime.

[KcMizzou]

When PH got his extension, didn't he set the TD record that year? It wasn't Priest that hindered us from reaching the SB all those years. It was Dick and CP not getting defensive help.


Oh, that and we are still paying Gonzalez a lot and no one can argue he is past his prime. Is he still one of the best? Yes. But if we used your theory he wouldn't have received another dime.My theory?!? Hold up now... :p

[ChiefsfaninPA]

My theory?!? Hold up now... :p

I just mean the theory I hear from most people. Not you I just phrased it that way for my response.
:D

[Mecca]

Tony Gonzalez will probably still be playing when LJ is done, unless he decides to retire early.

I don't want LJ to breakdown but I'm going with laws of averages and history here. Priest broke down and even he didn't have as big of a workload as LJ has.

Also if you pull up my posts about Gonzalez I didn't think it was a great idea to resign him at a huge deal.

[Hammock Parties]

Tony Gonzalez will probably still be playing when LJ is done, unless he decides to retire early.

Gonzalez wants to play three more seasons. LJ has at least that long.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

I do think he will play for 4 more years. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on his wheels. He didn't start until his senior year in college, and we all know how long it took him to break into the starting lineup here. I do believe that he can't carry the rock like last year, but he still has good productive years(at least 4) ahead of him.

[KevB]

You think LJ will honestly be a productive player for more than another 2 years?

I suspect he'll start showing decline even this year......he averaged what 4.2 last year.....I suspect his YPC drops below 4 this year.

And if he does come in to play all 16 I'll be surprised if he doesn't get injured.

Here's the flaw in your theory (which I generally agree with)....LJ hasn't been a workhorse back his entire life. He was rarely used at Penn St. until his senior year. He wasn't used often his first 2 or 3 years here. So if we're talking about a cumulative beating that eventually wears down a running back by his late 20's....LJ may very well prove to be an exception. He doesn't have a career full of beatings year after year.

If your argument simply has to do with his abundance of carries last year - well, we'll see. You could be right. I think he's productive another 3 to 4 years, but that's just my opinion.

[KevB]

I do think he will play for 4 more years. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on his wheels. He didn't start until his senior year in college, and we all know how long it took him to break into the starting lineup here. I do believe that he can't carry the rock like last year, but he still has good productive years(at least 4) ahead of him.

Thanks for stealing my thunder ChiefsfaninPA.

[KcMizzou]

I wonder if people had the same questions about Jim Brown and Earl Campbell.

I know they didn't have forum to discuss it in this way, and the game was different then... but It makes you think.

[KcMizzou]

I guess what I'm saying is... why give up on a guy who's quite obviously a rare talent? You ride that horse till it quits... you don't hop off and choose another just because you're afraid he's gonna.

[Hammock Parties]

I wonder if people had the same questions about Jim Brown and Earl Campbell.

I know they didn't have forum to discuss it in this way, and the game was different then... but It makes you think.

Jim Brown and Earl Campbell both had nine-year careers. Not that long, but LJ has only been in the league four seasons. I'd be absolutely ecstatic if we got another five years out of him.

[KcMizzou]

Jim Brown and Earl Campbell both had nine-year careers. Not that long, but LJ has only been in the league four seasons. I'd be absolutely ecstatic if we got another five years out of him.Likewise.

[ChiefsfaninPA]

Hopefully our organization will feel the same way and get the man signed and in camp. Both sides are going to have to give for it to happen and happen soon, which I think it will.

[Mecca]

That "he didn't do this in college" and such and such to me went out the window when he carried it almost 800 times over 2 seasons.....You don't get to make up for past seasons by taking extra carries.

It's the huge workload in a short period of time that causes the massive decline really fast.

[cdcox]

Jim Brown and Earl Campbell both had nine-year careers. Not that long, but LJ has only been in the league four seasons. I'd be absolutely ecstatic if we got another five years out of him.

Might want to check the actual numbers. Earl Campbell is a perfect example of a back that broke down. He had a 5.5 year career and hung around for 9.




| 1978 hou | 15 | 302 1450 4.8 13 | 12 48 4.0 0 |
| 1979 hou | 16 | 368 1697 4.6 19 | 16 94 5.9 0 |
| 1980 hou | 15 | 373 1934 5.2 13 | 11 47 4.3 0 |
| 1981 hou | 16 | 361 1376 3.8 10 | 36 156 4.3 0 |
| 1982 hou | 9 | 157 538 3.4 2 | 18 130 7.2 0 |
| 1983 hou | 14 | 322 1301 4.0 12 | 19 216 11.4 0 |
| 1984 nor | 8 | 50 190 3.8 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 |
| 1984 hou | 6 | 96 278 2.9 4 | 3 27 9.0 0 |
| 1985 nor | 16 | 158 643 4.1 1 | 6 88 14.7 0 |

[FAX]

We got dem drop flop no block butt run one and done blues, baby.

FAX

[Hammock Parties]

Might want to check the actual numbers. Earl Campbell is a perfect example of a back that broke down. He had a 5.5 year career and hung around for 9.


Naturally, but LJ hasn't had four 300-carry seasons.

[stumppy]

We got dem drop flop no block butt run one and done blues, baby.

FAX


ROFL

Tru dat dawg

[cdcox]

Naturally, but LJ hasn't had four 300-carry seasons.

I'm not even counting his first two seasons. If LJ proves to be super human in that he shows no adverse effects from his heavy workload to daye, then we might get another 3 seasons from him if he follows Earl Campbel's pattern.


Here is how I would break down the probabilities just going by gut feel without running some actual statistics on past running backs.

Pobability of future 1400+ yard seasons:
0 25%
1 25%
2 30%
3 15%
3+ 5%

[BigRock]

Well when we pay him for a couple years to do nothing like we did Priest you'll see the point...
What has Priest's contract done to harm the team? Do we have salary cap problems? Is his contract like an albatross around our necks, stopping us from signing free agents or draft choices?

[milkman]

I don't think we can win without LJ.

But I also don't think we'll win anything with LJ.

If we're going to mortgage the future for a single player, then I'd wait until we actually have a chance to achieve something before doing it.

[ClevelandBronco]

The Chiefs can win without LJ this year, but not frequently.

21 points is all it should take to beat them.

[Logical]

I don't think we can win without LJ.

But I also don't think we'll win anything with LJ.

If we're going to mortgage the future for a single player, then I'd wait until we actually have a chance to achieve something before doing it.

Sing it loud and sing it strong. Praise be for sanity.

[burt]

with or without LJ, I think we find a way to win. Yes, I am a Homer, and I will watch the season to see how it goes.

[cdcox]

What has Priest's contract done to harm the team? Do we have salary cap problems? Is his contract like an albatross around our necks, stopping us from signing free agents or draft choices?

I remember thinking at the time of his signing that Priest's contract wouldn't kill us even if he'd given us his best days.

LJ is asking for the best contract a RB ever got.

[B_Ambuehl]

What makes everyone think a back simply breaks down carrying the football? It's the injuries not the carries. There's a big difference between carrying the football, getting tackled, and getting back up and repeating that sequence hundreds of times vs carrying the football getting tackled, and getting hurt. LJ has never walked off the field with so much as a limp. When he starts to accumulate a variety of lower body injuries then it's time to worry about breaking down.

[Chieftain58]

Croyle needs to develop anyway let LJ sit until Croyle is ready in a couple years... :)

[cdcox]

What makes everyone think a back simply breaks down carrying the football? It's the injuries not the carries. There's a big difference between carrying the football, getting tackled, and getting back up and repeating that sequence hundreds of times vs carrying the football getting tackled, and getting hurt. LJ has never walked off the field with so much as a limp. When he starts to accumulate a variety of lower body injuries then it's time to worry about breaking down.

History disagrees.

http://footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764

[BigRock]

History disagrees.

http://footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764
The Football Outsiders stuff has actually been debunked by several people. A lot of their data is just misleading. There's several key issues that they ignore, from the age of the guys in question, to overall team factors that would impact a back's numbers, to individual things like contract years (or post-contract years) that have been known to influence someone's performance.

For example, if you wanted to talk about LJ's YPC average dropping from 2005 to 2006, the offensive line would be a good place to start. The starting QB being out half the season and teams keying in on the run would be another. Not only don't they don't factor anything like that into their analysis of why a YPC might vary, they use those stats for the sole purpose of claiming that a player is declining even if, in reality, that wasn't the case. Then they further ignore those issues when they try to explain their "touches vs. carries" theory, even though it's often those types of things that can explain why a back may be used differently in a given season.

For some reason they don't even mention LT, who isn't just a exception to the 370 carries rule, he's a major one. Someone earlier in the thread said something about 800 carries in 2 years in reference to LJ. LT may not have carried it 800 times, but there's not a point in his career where he had less than 800 touches in a 2 year span. Take any back-to-back years in his career and he had the ball over 800 times.

People try to defend that point by saying "well, guys like LT are more elusive", which is true. But no matter how elusive you are, you still take a pounding. And elusive backs are typically smaller. Certainly LT is. It's not exactly rocket science to suggest that a guy built like LJ is going to be able to handle more punishment than a guy with a considerably smaller frame.

LT has been working a 400 touch per year load for 6 years, hasn't been injured, has shown no signs of slowing down, and just came off the best season of his career. Yet there's not one mention of him in their analysis. On the other hand, we're told that LJ's legs may very well fall off his body.

Much of the analysis of the individual backs is misleading, too. They cite TD's carries as the reason his career ended when he actually got hurt going after the ballcarrier on on a turnover. That's like saying if LJ gets in another play this season like the one where Rolle nearly ripped his head off that "see, he had too many carries". One has nothing to do with the other.

They claim Eddie George was never effective after 2000, when he had two 1000 yard seasons after that. They take a guy's breakout season like Ahman Green's in 2003, and try to use the fact that his numbers weren't as great -- but still incredibly good -- the next year as evidence of a "decline". They use Corey Dillon as an example when he was about 70 years old during the season in question.

I could go on, but that's plenty. At the end of the day, some guys wear down and get hurt after handling the ball a lot. There's no doubt about that. But some guys don't. There's not some magical theory that proves anyone who carries the ball alot will suffer for it. It's just yet another example of guys on the internet getting their jollies by acting like they know more than NFL coaches.

[ClevelandBronco]

Jim Brown and Earl Campbell both had nine-year careers. Not that long, but LJ has only been in the league four seasons. I'd be absolutely ecstatic if we got another five years out of him.

Jim Brown had a few years left in him when he jumped ship. He delivered more punishment than he ever took.