Hypothetical: Pandemic!

[Rain Man]

How would life in America change if a pandemic killed 20 percent of all humans on earth, including 20 percent of Americans, over the course of a five-year run?

What about 50 percent?

What about 80 percent?

Assume that the deaths are random and not just people you don't like. To make the scenarios a little easier, assume that the deaths would be NOT be disportionately older people and kids, but rather equally apportioned throughout the population.


I suspect that a 20 percent pandemic wouldn't change the way we live. It would certainly have an impact on our culture and our behavior, but it would be more of a psychological hit than anything else.

80 percent would result in a lot of long-term decline in infrastructure, and I think would lead to the death of most suburbs as land freed up in the cities. I think that it might push the economy back to a more industrial/agrarian focus, but I'm not sure. I would think that a larger proportion of our population would be needed for things like transport and processing just because distances wouldn't change, and so the service industries would decline disproportionately.

I'm not quite sure about the 50 percent scenario. Somewhere between the two obviously, but would it be closer to the high end or the low end?

[Phobia]

I think advertisers, journalists, and researchers would starve.

[The Franchise]

Is it a painful death? Or more like a *poof* you're gone kind of death? Is it spread to the 20%,50%, or 80%? Or do the certain people just get it...and all die at the same time?

[HolmeZz]

Why do your hypotheticals have to be so scary?

[Adept Havelock]

Excellent question, Mr. Rain Man. May I suggest we ask Mr. George R. Stewart? (http://www.amazon.com/Earth-Abides-George-R-Stewart/dp/0345487133/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-6829326-6059001?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1187397879&sr=8-1)

.

[KcMizzou]

Now I want to read "The Stand" again.

[Bugeater]

80% would sure make rush hour more tolerable.

[Rain Man]

Is it a painful death? Or more like a *poof* you're gone kind of death? Is it spread to the 20%,50%, or 80%? Or do the certain people just get it...and all die at the same time?


Symptom 1. Mild cough and fatigue (Day 1)
Symptom 2. Acute stomach pains (Day 2)
Symptom 3. Arms and legs fall off, begin vomiting up internal organs (Day 3)
Symptom 4. Death (Day 4)


If you don't get the disease, you're fine.

[Rain Man]

Why do your hypotheticals have to be so scary?

Because real life is so nice and pleasant.

[The Franchise]

Symptom 1. Mild cough and fatigue (Day 1)
Symptom 2. Acute stomach pains (Day 2)
Symptom 3. Arms and legs fall off, begin vomiting up internal organs (Day 3)
Symptom 4. Death (Day 4)


If you don't get the disease, you're fine.


Jesus...sounds like Day 3 sucks some serious baows.

[Bowser]

LET'S PLAY THUNDERDOME!!!

[Jilly]

You are the most creative person I know...

[Jilly]

Maybe we'd actually start caring about each other?

[Ultra Peanut]

Free Icees for the survivors!

[Ultra Peanut]

Maybe we'd actually start caring about each other?Hahahahahahahahahahahaha.

No.

[Otter]

If I survived I'd kill off any MIT and Berkley computer science grads and rule the world!

[Eleazar]

All of a sudden my boyhood dream of being a major league closer seems a lot more likely.

[007]

Can you say LAWSUIT!!!



Come on. IT's America.

[Logical]

Why do your hypotheticals have to be so scary?

I believe he is planning for the US government. They plan to release a virus that will cause a pandemic and are trying to pick one based on lethality. This is just CIA research.

[Psyko Tek]

Rain Man
Does your plague have no reguard for race, creed, color, or tax bracket?

[Rain Man]

Rain Man
Does your plague have no reguard for race, creed, color, or tax bracket?

Bi-curious women are curiously spared, but otherwise it hits everyone equally.

[Psyko Tek]

Bi-curious women are curiously spared, but otherwise it hits everyone equally.

man if true genious

[Hammock Parties]

Did some extraterrestrials ask you to conduct a survey or what? Should I stock my bomb shelter?

[KcMizzou]

I, for one, welcome our female bi-curious overlords.

[Bearcat]

Symptom 1. Mild cough and fatigue (Day 1)
Symptom 2. Acute stomach pains (Day 2)
Symptom 3. Arms and legs fall off, begin vomiting up internal organs (Day 3)
Symptom 4. Death (Day 4)


If you don't get the disease, you're fine.

[ClevelandBronco]

How would life in America change if a pandemic killed 20 percent of all humans on earth, including 20 percent of Americans, over the course of a five-year run?

What about 50 percent?

What about 80 percent?

Assume that the deaths are random and not just people you don't like. To make the scenarios a little easier, assume that the deaths would be NOT be disportionately older people and kids, but rather equally apportioned throughout the population.


I suspect that a 20 percent pandemic wouldn't change the way we live. It would certainly have an impact on our culture and our behavior, but it would be more of a psychological hit than anything else.

80 percent would result in a lot of long-term decline in infrastructure, and I think would lead to the death of most suburbs as land freed up in the cities. I think that it might push the economy back to a more industrial/agrarian focus, but I'm not sure. I would think that a larger proportion of our population would be needed for things like transport and processing just because distances wouldn't change, and so the service industries would decline disproportionately.

I'm not quite sure about the 50 percent scenario. Somewhere between the two obviously, but would it be closer to the high end or the low end?

20 percent mortality would result in an economic catastrophe, Rain Man.

[RedDread]

Honestly one of the first things that would happen would be a massive economic recession, even with 20% of the population dead many cities would invariably become deserted with an uneven spread of disease and people trying to avoid infection. You would have a period of martial law where the US government sought to contain the disease and ultimately (hopefully) gave up and rescinded military control of the country once the disease had subsided, but no guarantees.

Me myself? Depending on how the disease was spread I would probably head to Montana or Wyoming or some other god-forsaken place where there aren't too many people around.

[ClevelandBronco]

Honestly one of the first things that would happen would be a massive economic recession, even with 20% of the population dead many cities would invariably become deserted with an uneven spread of disease and people trying to avoid infection. You would have a period of martial law where the US government sought to contain the disease and ultimately (hopefully) gave up and rescinded military control of the country once the disease had subsided, but no guarantees.

Me myself? Depending on how the disease was spread I would probably head to Montana or Wyoming or some other god-forsaken place where there aren't too many people around.

So, you're dead. How's everything else going?

[DenverChief]

80 percent would result in a lot of long-term decline in infrastructure, and I think would lead to the death of most suburbs as land freed up in the cities.

I disagree I think that a pandemic would drive people apart there would be more comfort in space/distance between neighbors...if anything I think people would flee the major metro areas to get away from other possibly infectious people

[Bugeater]

Bi-curious women are curiously spared, but otherwise it hits everyone equally.
http://www.mustangmods.com/data/10900/brilliant.jpg

[morphius]

I disagree I think that a pandemic would drive people apart there would be more comfort in space/distance between neighbors...if anything I think people would flee the major metro areas to get away from other possibly infectious people
plus the land grab so that people could grow enough food to feed their families. Their would be a lot of jobs that wouldn't be around anymore after an event like that.

[Jilly]

what do I care? Apparently I will be spared

[DenverChief]

plus the land grab so that people could grow enough food to feed their families. Their would be a lot of jobs that wouldn't be around anymore after an event like that.


Hell I'd prolly just wait for my neighbors to bolt knock down their fences and stat growing stuff in the back yard....with my gunbelt on of course and a rifle not too far away :D

[DenverChief]

I know the sheriff has a plan for such and incident.. there are only a few roads in and out of the county and if anything major starts to happen there will be deputies/police at all the roads that lead in and out of the county...no one in --no one out unless they manage to climb a mountain or two....

[HonestChieffan]

Global warming would be solved. We could move on to a Global Cooling Scare.

With any luck the pandemic would be worse in desert lands filled with people who want to live in the stone age

We would have more parking spaces to tailgate in

[DenverChief]

With any luck the pandemic would be worse in desert lands filled with people who want to live in the stone age




I'm thinking more like North Korea or China....but Iran/Iraq will do in a pinch

[HonestChieffan]

Its a start

[Simplex3]

Symptom 1. Mild cough and fatigue (Day 1)
Symptom 2. Acute stomach pains (Day 2)
Symptom 3. Arms and legs fall off, begin vomiting up internal organs (Day 3)
Symptom 4. Death (Day 4)


If you don't get the disease, you're fine.
If it was in any way contagious (which it would seem that it must) then your theory on cities being the gathering place is rather flawed.

[Simplex3]

Maybe we'd actually start caring about each other?
If by "caring" you mean shooting anyone you catch on your property, then yes.

[Simplex3]

For myself and my family even the 20% scenario would precipitate a move to the wife's family farm in VERY rural Iowa. In a scenario like that people aren't going to be very interested in new computer systems.

It's going to be a subsistence based society. All these service industries will go right back out the window, which basically means the American and many European economies will largely collapse.

People in 3rd world countries will starve in mass numbers with people in the West no longer funding them.

Basically, for the first time in 300 or more years, the majority of the globe will be more concerned with eating for the remainder of the year than any other goals.

IMO it would bring about a renaissance of the human species. The weak would perish, the strong would survive and reproduce. Societies based on stupid mythological practices would be less likely to survive and thrive than more practical societies. The increased isolation would stop people from spending all their time concerned with what their neighbor is doing.

So, what does it take to make this happen?

[Rain Man]

20 percent mortality would result in an economic catastrophe, Rain Man.

You think so?

A 20 percent population loss would put us back to about the population of the U.S. in 1985. Based on that, my theory is that it wouldn't fundamentally change the structure of the economy. I'm sure it would shock the stock market and stuff, but I think that would be a temporary shock. Maybe set the economy back 20 years, but not destroy it.

A 50 percent population loss would put us back to the population of the U.S. in the late 1940s. That would probably be enough to seriously damage the structure of the economy, moving a lot of people from service jobs back to basic infrastructure.

An 80 percent population loss would put us back to the population of the U.S. in the late 1880s. I think that would fundamentally change the American civilization.

[Rain Man]

I disagree I think that a pandemic would drive people apart there would be more comfort in space/distance between neighbors...if anything I think people would flee the major metro areas to get away from other possibly infectious people

I think there would be a short-term flight during the height of the pandemic, but in the long term I think people would have to come back to the cities. That's where the transportation and manufacturing and distribution hubs are.

Don't get me wrong - the cities would be much smaller in the 50 percent and 80 percent scenarios, and I'm sure that small town populations and rural populations would increase. But I think that cities will still be necessary for most people. Most of us have no idea how to grow our own food and be independent, not to mention the fact that the people who own the rural land will shoot us when we start camping out there.

Maybe the rural people would end up being powerful, because they would have a lot of trouble getting their equipment repaired and fueled, so they would give jobs to the city folk to help plant and harvest. Either that, or the city folk would kill them and take their stuff. It's anybody's guess.

I would speculate that in the 50 percent scenario that struck all populations equally, we'd see migration that would result in a 75 percent loss of suburban population, 50 percent loss of cities, and 20 percent loss of rural/small town populations. (I'm sure my math's not right, but I'm too lazy to look it up.)

In the 80 percent scenario, I bet the end result would be a 95 percent loss of suburban populations (converting them essentially back to rural), 75 percent loss of cities, and 50 percent loss of rural/small town.

In the 20 percent loss scenario, I bet you'd actually see the biggest movement to rural areas, because people would still have the ability to do so. In that scenario, you might see a gain of rural/small town populations with 25 percent net losses in both cities and suburbs.

[StcChief]

Maybe we'd actually start caring about each other?
Dream on. Group hugs would be in short supply

[Bugeater]

what do I care? Apparently I will be spared
giggity

[Jilly]

Dream on. Group hugs would be in short supply

Hey, it doesn't hurt to dream a little, right?

[Dr. Johnny Fever]

How would life in America change if a pandemic killed 20 percent of all humans on earth, including 20 percent of Americans, over the course of a five-year run?


Jeezuz

[Demonpenz]

We are going to see about a million people perrish once a terrorist sets off a nuke

[Jilly]

can we change the subject?

[Demonpenz]

we had a good run as americans but it's time for another country to rule. It's going to happen mine as well plan for it. Nuke or biterrorism is going to change the way we think. We will long for the days of bowling and golf leagues, replaced but deciding if we should kill family members so we have enough food to survive

[big nasty kcnut]

Well america would be more open and a chance to really do good. also it would make countries more open to each other.

[Simplex3]

Well america would be more open and a chance to really do good. also it would make countries more open to each other.
LMAO

People would be more afraid of each other than ever before.

[Bowser]

we had a good run as americans but it's time for another country to rule. It's going to happen mine as well plan for it. Nuke or biterrorism is going to change the way we think. We will long for the days of bowling and golf leagues, replaced but deciding if we should kill family members so we have enough food to survive


Horseshit. All the really good Empires got at least 1000 years.


*ducking for cover*

[Rain Man]

can we change the subject?


Hey, if there's a big pandemic and a bunch of people die, you can come to my house and I'll be nice to you.





You're still breeding age, right?

[Bowser]

Hey, if there's a big pandemic and a bunch of people die, you can come to my house and I'll be nice to you.





You're still breeding age, right?

LMAO

[Jilly]

Hey, if there's a big pandemic and a bunch of people die, you can come to my house and I'll be nice to you.





You're still breeding age, right?

if by breeding age you mean i haven't gone through menopause, then yes. And if by haven't gone through menopause you mean, still able to conceive, then yes. And if by still able to conceive you mean I could continue the human race, then yes, I will come to your house and let you "be nice" to me.

[Rain Man]

if by breeding age you mean i haven't gone through menopause, then yes. And if by haven't gone through menopause you mean, still able to conceive, then yes. And if by still able to conceive you mean I could continue the human race, then yes, I will come to your house and let you "be nice" to me.


Good enough. You're in. And please bring as much canned food as possible, if you don't mind.