#3 pick in Fantasy Draft

[Bill Lundberg]

Do you take LJ or not.

My money league draft is Tuesday night. I have the 3rd pick and LT and Steven Jackson will be gone. Do you take LJ or go with Addai or Gore??

I'm leaning towards LJ but worry about our offense. Trying to take off my homer glasses and make the most logical pick.

[Sam Hall]

I'd take Shaun Alexander because he has a good offensive line and a good schedule.

[The Franchise]

Anybody agree with me that Stephen Jackson is a good pick at #2?

[Sam Hall]

Anybody agree with me that Stephen Jackson is a good pick at #2?

Yeah, the Rams offense will be explosive.

[Mama Hip Rockets]

why does everyone in the world suddenly assume that jackson will go #2? not saying he shouldn't, i'm just wondering why everybody acts like it's a given.

[Bill Lundberg]

The reason I assume that is because I went shooting with the guy who has the #2 pick and he told me he was taking Jackson. :)

[percysnow]

s. jackson has gone number 2 in everydraft Ive been in. . u should without a doubrt take LJ. . over a declining S. Alexander. . .

[doomy3]

why does everyone in the world suddenly assume that jackson will go #2? not saying he shouldn't, i'm just wondering why everybody acts like it's a given.


Because he is going number two in vitually every fantasy draft this year. It really is a given.

And I had the #3 pick in a recent draft and I took LJ. He will get TDs

[Dayze]

I'm taking Jackson @ 2 in about 30 minutes.
Just can't take LJ considering our Offense this year; he'll see 8-9 in the box consistently etc...

[Valiant]

I'm taking Jackson @ 2 in about 30 minutes.
Just can't take LJ considering our Offense this year; he'll see 8-9 in the box consistently etc...


Agreed... Jackson should improve upon last year whereas with LJ he is coming in from the 400+ carries, his Oline might be worse this year and I doubt he sees as many TD's either because the team should not be good.. The plus side is he should see more catches hopefully.. I see LJ with 350+ touches 1300-1400 rushing yards 300-400 receiving and hopefully 10+tds...

But if our passing Offense sucks LJ will see a lot less being 8-9 in the box and a lot of 3 and outs...

[eazyb81]

I've got the #3 this year and I feel like i'm almost forced to take LJ. I have my doubts as to how he'll do this year, but I would feel like a f'n moron if I pass on him and he has another big year.

I would love to see SJax fall to me.

[banyon]

I had 3 and I took Gore. I just don't believe in the Chief's O this season esp. their O line.

[eazyb81]

I had 3 and I took Gore. I just don't believe in the Chief's O this season esp. their O line.

But you aren't bothered by Gore's durability and fumbling problems?

[RJ]

Assuming LT and Jackson to be 1 and 2 I'd take Addai at #3. My heart says Larry but my brain says Addai.

[Bill Lundberg]

Assuming LT and Jackson to be 1 and 2 I'd take Addai at #3. My heart says Larry but my brain says Addai.


That's the one that's been weighing on my mind...

[RJ]

That's the one that's been weighing on my mind...


Addai has the great offense around him, won't be sharing carries, had a light load last season and he got better every week. He's solid in the third spot on my RB chart. Where I really look for his game to improve is receiving. I hope I'm right, he's already on one of my teams, maybe another tomorrow if the order falls right.

[Dayze]

Agreed... Jackson should improve upon last year whereas with LJ he is coming in from the 400+ carries, his Oline might be worse this year and I doubt he sees as many TD's either because the team should not be good.. The plus side is he should see more catches hopefully.. I see LJ with 350+ touches 1300-1400 rushing yards 300-400 receiving and hopefully 10+tds...

But if our passing Offense sucks LJ will see a lot less being 8-9 in the box and a lot of 3 and outs...

exactly why I took Jackson :thumb: I think team will force KC to win via their QB. If I had the #4 pick etc...I''d take LJ.
great minds think alike.

[Mr. Kotter]

LJ.

Period.

IF he's still available.... :)

[Dayze]

fyi; our top 4 went like this

LT
Jackson
Manning
LJ

[kcxiv]

I got the number 1 in a 12 man. Had to take LT.

QB- Romo, Eli Manning
RB- Tomlinson, McCallister, Betts
WR-Ocho Cinco, Evans, Santonio Holmes, Arnez Battle
TE- Gonzo, McMichael
K-Medlock. We are going to be a field goal kicking team.lol

Defense, Pittsburg, KC

[Bill Lundberg]

The draft is in 4 hours. I was all set to take Addai and now I'm thinking I have to go with LJ.

[BigRock]

TAKE SIPPIO

[KurtCobain]

Go with LJ.

[MahiMike]

I would hate to have that pick. Seems like the line of demarcation gets higher each year. You gotta go w/LJ and just hope he holds up. There's been a precedence set in the NFL that RB's that run that much are crap the next year. Combine this w/a Herm-led offense and you're asking for trouble. Still, LJ is probably worth the gamble.

[jidar]

even if he has a big fall off LJ is still probably the #3 pick, the only thing you should be considering is his liklihood of injury imo.

[Bill Lundberg]

I'm going with LJ; in my opinion everyone has the same likelihood of injury in this league.

[CoMoChief]

If Jackson is there and so is LJ, you pick Jackson.

But in my league I had the 3rd overall pick and LT and Steven Jackson were the first 2 picks off the board. In that case you take LJ, which is what I did.

Peyton Manning will probably go right after that.

[sedated]

I'd take Addai, no doubt.

Better offense than LJ, and doesn't have the injury history of Gore.

When's the last time Gore went an entire season? Including college.

I'd probably take Rudi Johnson over Gore. At least you know what you're getting.

[stumppy]

I'm going with LJ; in my opinion everyone has the same likelihood of injury in this league.

Excellent choice. My choice will always be the back that runs like he's PO'd at the world. Besides, you know he's gonna kick some butt this year no matter what the rest of the offense does.

[penguinz]

Donnell Bennett!

[Skyy God]

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?slug=ab-rotoarcade_090107

This is not an easy day. I've never felt like less of an expert. In fact, I should probably be excommunicated by the council of fantasy elders.

Last night, in my final live draft of the season, I took Larry Johnson with the third pick. Ahead of Frank Gore. And I even traded up to get him.

Stupid, I know.

I actually swapped the ninth and 12th overall picks for the third and 18th. So instead of drafting Rudi Johnson and Reggie Bush, I get stuck with LJ and Brandon Jacobs.

Idiotic. A total noob mistake. Like a skittish rookie, I based my draft on talent and statistics.

Dumb, dumb, dumb.

It's not like I haven't seen the analyses of Johnson's imminent decline. He was overworked in 2006. His line is eroding. He's missed the preseason. The Kansas City offense is inert. Blah-blah-Willie Roaf-blah.

Knowing all this, did I make the expertly pick?

No.

Did I at least consider Gore? Joseph Addai? Shaun Alexander?

No.

Instead, I wasted the No. 3 pick on LJ. Only 27, but already in decline.

It's not statistically evident yet, but it's coming. People say so. He carried the ball an NFL-record 416 times last year. He's finished. I've read about the 400-carry effect. I know what it did to James Wilder in 1985.

Well, OK, he had another 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. But after that it was over. Eddie George never bounced back from those 403 rush attempts in 2000.

Well, unless you count the 12 touchdown season he had in 2002. But Eric Dickerson never bounced back from his 404 attempts in 1986.

Unless you consider 1,659 yards and 14 touchdowns in 1988 to be "bouncing back." Which I certainly do not.

I probably should've just drafted Dickerson third overall last night. Or I could've taken Billy Simms … always liked him. Or Cullen Bryant. Or any number of ex-Chiefs. Like Ed Podolak.

Crazy, that's what it was.

Larry (expletive) Johnson. Incredible. And me, an expert. I'd like to blame the Corona, but it was something else. I forget what exactly. Hmm …

Oh, yeah. It was the 4,292 total yards and 40 touchdowns over the past two seasons. But statistics are just the Devil's little messengers, and I should've seen them for what they were.

Stupid, stupid … (bangs head, moans, sniffles) … stupid.

I'm really a cautionary tale. Basically, my judgment was clouded by Johnson's history of staggering success and the fact that he's completely healthy. And only 27. And the centerpiece of his offense.

Just thinking about it makes me ill. Like with vomit. Still can't believe I did it.

Clearly, Frank Gore is not a risk to break down. He's already had both shoulders repaired and he's torn the ACL in both knees. There's nothing important left to injure. Johnson's ligaments are practically ticking, they're so ready to explode.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Well, it's over. No one in their right mind would trade for Larry Johnson, so I'm stuck with him. Let's try to project his numbers, just to idly twist the knife. His offensive line is literally a bunch of lawn and leaf bags filled with Styrofoam, so I can't count on them helping at all. We'll assume that Johnson's yards per carry will slip further, from 5.2 in 2005 and 4.3 in 2006 to … what?

Let's say 3.9 in 2007.

That seems like a worst-case scenario. Then let's say that Johnson's carries dip all the way to 365, which would be 51 fewer than last season. (It's also exactly the same number that Wilder had in 1985). Let's give LJ as many receiving yards, 377, as he's averaged in 2005 and 2006. And just to be conservative, let's say that he'll only score half as many total touchdowns as his two-year average.

Now we're looking at 1,800 total yards and 10 TDs. That's only 240 fantasy points.

So that stinks. Useless numbers, basically. And that's only if he stays healthy (which of course he won't), rushes for 3.9 yards a carry (which is just a far-off dream), and manages to score half of his usual touchdowns (not likely).

Dumb, dumb, dumb …

[Bill Lundberg]

That is great!

[Bill Lundberg]

I went with Addai.

1.03 Addai
2.10 Chad Johnson
3.03 Antonio Gates
4.10 Julius Jones
5.03 Jamal Lewis
6.10 Vince Young
7.03 Braylon Edwards
8.10 Chester Taylor
9.03 Devery Henderson
10.10 Michael Turner
11.03 Matt Schaub
12.10 Vikings
13.03 Chris Brown
14.10 Gostkowski
15.03 Stokely

[Mecca]

I do not like your backs......you are aware that Julius Jones, Turner and Chris Brown are all burried on their depth charts right?

[Bill Lundberg]

Jones #1 on his chart - http://www.dallascowboys.com/team_depthChart.cfm

Yes I know Turner and Brown are #2's they are just for depth in case of injury.

[Mecca]

Brown will be lucky to be the 2, he's behind White and probably Chris Henry too...

Marion Barber is going to see more work than Julius Jones, I don't care what that says. He will get more carries, all the goaline work. If you take a Dallas back it should be Barber.

[Valiant]

Jones #1 on his chart - http://www.dallascowboys.com/team_depthChart.cfm

Yes I know Turner and Brown are #2's they are just for depth in case of injury.


Jones should get his 1000 yards and 3-5 tds...

But Barber should get 800+ yards and 10+ tds again.. And it could get more onesided if Jones falters and they make Barber the main back..

[Logical]

I went with Addai.

1.03 Addai
2.10 Chad Johnson
3.03 Antonio Gates
4.10 Julius Jones
5.03 Jamal Lewis
6.10 Vince Young
7.03 Braylon Edwards
8.10 Chester Taylor
9.03 Devery Henderson
10.10 Michael Turner
11.03 Matt Schaub
12.10 Vikings
13.03 Chris Brown
14.10 Gostkowski
15.03 Stokely

Smart move, decent draft