Direckshun
10-03-2007, 11:26 AM
http://www.walterfootball.com/picks.php
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Line: Jaguars by 2. Total: 36.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Chiefs -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Chiefs -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: JAGUARS: OUT: K Josh Scobee.
[Paragraph deleted for sheer irrelevant stupidity. You want to read it? Track it down yourself.]
Someone who doesn't need to age is Larry Johnson. After carrying the ball 416 times in 2006, holding out and getting paid, Johnson is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season. Granted, he gained 123 yards on 25 carries last week, but anything's possible when Norv Turner is involved. I'm skeptical; I need to see Johnson go over the century mark more than once. The Jaguars are 27th against the run, but that statistic is an aberration, given that they've been pretty stout against opposing ground attacks since Tennessee shredded them in Week 1. In fact, the Jaguars restricted Travis Henry to only 35 yards on 11 carries prior to their bye. If Johnson can't run effectively, Damon Huard will have to beat Jacksonville's secondary. Huard got away with some lucky throws last week, but I don't think it'll work this time; the Jaguars have 10 sacks in three games, so Huard won't have much of an opportunity to locate Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe downfield.
After LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 114 yards in the first half last week, he touched the ball only three times in the third quarter. Jack Del Rio isn't dumb; if Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are pummeling Kansas City's defensive front at 4.4 yards per carry - which is what they're giving up on the year - Del Rio will keep feeding Taylor and Jones-Drew the ball. What a concept. Furthermore, the Chiefs also have to worry about David Garrard scrambling out of the pocket. Garrard has been efficient this season (three touchdowns, no picks, 64-percent completion rate), and I expect him to economically manage this game.
Doesn't this line seem shady? The Chiefs just knocked off the Chargers on the road, yet they're home dogs to a Jaguars team that had problems with the Titans and Falcons? About two-thirds of the betting public seem to be taking the bait, assuming this is even a trap game to begin with.
The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
The Jaguars owe the Chiefs for knocking them out of the playoffs last year.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
I don't see why there wouldn't be equal action on this game. Both of these teams are coming off upsets against "superior" AFC West foes.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (8,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
Bye Bye: Jack Del Rio is 1-3 ATS off a bye.
Chiefs are 14-6 ATS in October since 2002.
Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.
Opening Total: 34.5.
Weather: .
Fantasy Spin.
Start Em: Jaguars Defense, Tony Gonzalez.
Sit Em: Damon Huard, Larry Johnson.
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Chiefs 14
Jaguars -2 (1 Unit)
Over 36 (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Line: Jaguars by 2. Total: 36.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Chiefs -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Chiefs -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: JAGUARS: OUT: K Josh Scobee.
[Paragraph deleted for sheer irrelevant stupidity. You want to read it? Track it down yourself.]
Someone who doesn't need to age is Larry Johnson. After carrying the ball 416 times in 2006, holding out and getting paid, Johnson is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season. Granted, he gained 123 yards on 25 carries last week, but anything's possible when Norv Turner is involved. I'm skeptical; I need to see Johnson go over the century mark more than once. The Jaguars are 27th against the run, but that statistic is an aberration, given that they've been pretty stout against opposing ground attacks since Tennessee shredded them in Week 1. In fact, the Jaguars restricted Travis Henry to only 35 yards on 11 carries prior to their bye. If Johnson can't run effectively, Damon Huard will have to beat Jacksonville's secondary. Huard got away with some lucky throws last week, but I don't think it'll work this time; the Jaguars have 10 sacks in three games, so Huard won't have much of an opportunity to locate Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe downfield.
After LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 114 yards in the first half last week, he touched the ball only three times in the third quarter. Jack Del Rio isn't dumb; if Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are pummeling Kansas City's defensive front at 4.4 yards per carry - which is what they're giving up on the year - Del Rio will keep feeding Taylor and Jones-Drew the ball. What a concept. Furthermore, the Chiefs also have to worry about David Garrard scrambling out of the pocket. Garrard has been efficient this season (three touchdowns, no picks, 64-percent completion rate), and I expect him to economically manage this game.
Doesn't this line seem shady? The Chiefs just knocked off the Chargers on the road, yet they're home dogs to a Jaguars team that had problems with the Titans and Falcons? About two-thirds of the betting public seem to be taking the bait, assuming this is even a trap game to begin with.
The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
The Jaguars owe the Chiefs for knocking them out of the playoffs last year.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
I don't see why there wouldn't be equal action on this game. Both of these teams are coming off upsets against "superior" AFC West foes.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (8,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
Bye Bye: Jack Del Rio is 1-3 ATS off a bye.
Chiefs are 14-6 ATS in October since 2002.
Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.
Opening Total: 34.5.
Weather: .
Fantasy Spin.
Start Em: Jaguars Defense, Tony Gonzalez.
Sit Em: Damon Huard, Larry Johnson.
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Chiefs 14
Jaguars -2 (1 Unit)
Over 36 (1 Unit)