Rufus: Getting a QB is luck and luck alone!

[Hammock Parties]

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/11/14/dawes_call__response__its_luck_pure_and_simple_/

DAWES: CALL & RESPONSE – "It's luck, pure and simple"
Nov 14, 2007, 1:38:56 AM by Rufus Dawes - FAQ

CALL: I can guess what you think of the story [in the Kansas City Star, November 6, 2007] about not giving big money to running backs and [trying to] develop your own quarterback…. Brodie Croyle’s here now so I guess we’ll see.

RESPONSE: You can take all the guesswork out of it: running backs have short life-spans so I don’t necessarily disagree; developing quarterbacks, however, is not such an easy task and the Kansas City Star columnist’s thoughts here expose a surprising ignorance of the state of the position in today’s NFL. The comment in the Star was “Damn near every team in the league has drafted and started its own homegrown quarterback. Not the Chiefs.” (November 6, 2007)

Despite this pronouncement, however, the available evidence is overwhelming in rejecting this idea that if you really give it a go, as it were, in developing your own quarterback you will ultimately find success. Not even a simple majority of teams as it turns out has done so successfully, if one cares to look. Drafting and starting would appear to be the easy part.

Detroit hasn’t developed a superstar quarterback since, well, Bobby Layne. Currently less than half of the teams in the NFL have starting quarterbacks that they developed and the verdict is out on at least seven others who are currently starting for teams that drafted them. Only 14 of the 32 current starting quarterbacks are with their original teams.

In the jury-is-still-out category here are the questions: Is J.P. Losman the successor to Jim Kelly? Is Jason Campbell going to run Al Saunders’ offense the way he would like it run? Is Tarvaris Jackson a worthy successor to the legacy of Fran Tarkenton? How about Kellin Clemens? Is he the next Joe Namath? What about Alex Smith? Does he resemble Joe Montana in San Francisco in some way? Finally, will Jay Cutler dim memories of John Elway? The “damn” verdict is still out on all these players.

Baltimore head coach Brian Billick has long been considered to be an offensive guru and developer of quarterbacks. Yet, his starting quarterback came from Tennessee – the Titans, not the Volunteers. Meanwhile, one of the top QBs in the NFL this year is Cleveland’s Derek Anderson who’s thrown for 20 touchdowns already. He came from Baltimore. How’d Billick miss developing him? “Damn.”

Wasn’t Jon Gruden supposed to be the developer of quarterbacks? But he won the Super Bowl with Tony Dungy’s quarterback and hasn’t been able to “develop” his own, “damn” it. He’s playing with a quarterback now who’s been with five prior professional teams: Calgary, San Francisco, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay.

What do you suppose Jerry Glanville, then Atlanta Falcons head coach, was thinking when he traded Brett Favre to the Green Bay Packers? Did he not want to bother with that “damn” development? I mean, he had Chris Miller after all. Who, you say?

Myth is taken variously to designate imaginary phenomena, falsehoods, and traditional stories, allegories, images, and archetypes that express a people’s worldview. This image or story of a young quarterback being groomed by the team that drafted him and finding success is simply not accurate. Would Tom Brady ever been “developed” had Drew Bledsoe not been injured? Most likely it’s just like that – luck, pure and simple — unless you get the first pick of the draft and you’re smart enough to get Peyton Manning and not Ryan Leaf. You don’t stop trying, but it’s usually luck in the end. “Damn” it all.

[cdcox]

2007 - Peyton Manning
2005 - Ben Roethlisberger
2004 - Tom Brady
2003 - Tom Brady
2002 - Brad Johnson
2001 - Tom Brady
2000 - Trent Dilfer
1999 - Kurt Warner
1998 - John Elway
1997 - John Elway
1996 - Brett Favre
1995 - Troy Aikman
1994 - Steve Young
1993 - Troy Aikman
1992 - Troy Aikman

Out of 15 SB winning QBs, 10 of them were playing for the team that drafted them. Another 3 were developed by the teams that won the SB. And two SBs were won despite the QB.

So what Rufus means is that drafting and developing a QB is hard. Foo on him for trying to convince us that it doesn't work.

[BigChiefFan]

Carl is laying the groundwork for the QB having a rough spell. Little does he know we've already suffered through his boy Huard playing as bad as a pro can. Carl really comes off as a dufus for writing his own articles-what a clown.

[bobbything]

Every time I read Rufus' columns, my head hurts. It reminds me of trying to listen to Dennis Miller on MNF; I find myself drifting off, thinking about other things. Probably because he writes in an unnecessarily complicated style.

In the end, I don't know whether I agree, or disagree with him. Because I'm not really 100% sure of what he just said.

[RJ]

That is about the dumbest thing I've ever read. Obviously there is some luck involved in an NFL team having a great quarterback. There is always luck involved when any investment is successful. But to say that developing your own QB is "luck, pure and simple" does a disservice both to the franchises who have done that very thing and to all the Chiefs fans who know better.

Funny how "lucky" the Patriots have been with quarterbacks over the past 20 years.

[bobbything]

Funny how "lucky" the Patriots have been with quarterbacks over the past 20 years.
And, sans Trent Green, how "unlucky" the Chiefs have been.

[the Talking Can]

this franchise rationalizes failure like no other.....

here's the short version: Carl isn't responsible for anything ever

[siberian khatru]

It's really tough to win a Super Bowl!
It's really tough to win an AFC championship!
It's really tough to win a playoff game!
It's really tough to find good players!
It's really tough to compete in the NFL!

In other words, people, DON'T HOLD ME TO SOME RIDICULOUS STANDARD! Especially after 19 ****ing seasons!

Hey, I keep the stadium clean, I supply the uniforms. I let you in the parking lot early so you can hold cookouts and shit. What more do you ****ing want!?!

[the Talking Can]

he's saying that there is no difference between say Walsh and Carl...just bad luck.....

worshipping mediocrity rots your brain, just look at goatse for more proof....

[RJ]

this franchise rationalizes failure like no other.....

here's the short version: Carl isn't responsible for anything ever




There you go, just what Bobby asked for......less words, same message. So much simpler.

[the Talking Can]

It's really tough to win a Super Bowl!
It's really tough to win an AFC championship!
It's really tough to win a playoff game!
It's really tough to find good players!
It's really tough to compete in the NFL!

In other words, people, DON'T HOLD ME TO SOME RIDICULOUS STANDARD! Especially after 19 ****ing seasons!

Hey, I keep the stadium clean, I supply the uniforms. I let you in the parking lot early so you can hold cookouts and shit. What more do you ****ing want!?!


more than that, he is also that saying that YOU are stupid for expecting any kind of success....

[the Talking Can]

god shit like this reminds how much of a farce this franchise is...

[BigChiefFan]

Can and Siberian-you both had great takes. Of course Carl isn't responsible, that would mean admiting defeat and we all know Carl is teflon.

[KCJohnny]

2007 - Peyton Manning
2005 - Ben Roethlisberger
2004 - Tom Brady
2003 - Tom Brady
2002 - Brad Johnson
2001 - Tom Brady
2000 - Trent Dilfer
1999 - Kurt Warner
1998 - John Elway
1997 - John Elway
1996 - Brett Favre
1995 - Troy Aikman
1994 - Steve Young
1993 - Troy Aikman
1992 - Troy Aikman

Out of 15 SB winning QBs, 10 of them were playing for the team that drafted them. Another 3 were developed by the teams that won the SB. And two SBs were won despite the QB.

So what Rufus means is that drafting and developing a QB is hard. Foo on him for trying to convince us that it doesn't work.

A lot of these guys flat out STUNK in their first seasons. Aikman went 1-15!!!!
Brady, Warner and Young were just back up QBs who were thrust into the starting position because the #1 QB was injured. So Carl/Rufus is right in some regard.

John Unitas and Len Dawson were bench warmers early in their careers. Some of the greatest never made it to the big dance - Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, John Brodie, Jim Everett, Archie Manning, Jim Hart, etc...

[RJ]

A lot of these guys flat out STUNK in their first seasons. Aikman went 1-15!!!!
Brady, Warner and Young were just back up QBs who were thrust into the starting position because the #1 QB was injured. So Carl/Rufus is right in some regard.

John Unitas and Len Dawson were bench warmers early in their careers. Some of the greatest never made it to the big dance - Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, John Brodie, Jim Everett, Archie Manning, Jim Hart, etc...



I don't think you can classify Steve Young as "just a back up". Not Brady either, he hadn't been around long enough to be pigeonholed that way.

As to the others, not making it to a SB doesn't diminish their talents or the good jobs their teams did in their development.

[cdcox]

A lot of these guys flat out STUNK in their first seasons. Aikman went 1-15!!!!


So the Cowboys made a mistake by drafting him?

My point: drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory. I would love it if we wen 1-15 next year if that is the path to a SB.

[KCJohnny]

Conventional wisdom:
Draft a U of Mich QB regardless of their stats/record.

Griese
Collins
Grbac
Brady
Harbaugh

(forgot the rest - its late... but I know there's more U Mich QBs)

[KCJohnny]

So the Cowboys made a mistake by drafting him?

My point: drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory. I would love it if we wen 1-15 next year if that is the path to a SB.

What about the Rex Grossman experiment?

[cdcox]

What about the Rex Grossman experiment?

My point is that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

I did not say that every team that drafts a QB wins a SB. Naming QBs that did not win a SB does not provide an effective counter example.

For your counter examples you need to seek QBs that were not drafted and were not developed by the SB winning team. Your choices during the last 15 years are Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.

My point stands that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

[KCJohnny]

My point is that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

I did not say that every team that drafts a QB wins a SB. Naming QBs that did not win a SB does not provide an effective counter example.

For your counter examples you need to seek QBs that were not drafted and were not developed by the SB winning team. Your choices during the last 15 years are Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.

My point stands that drafting and developing your own QB is the most common route to a SB victory.

OK. Good point. Care to go back further than 15 years?

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms?
Jeff Hostettler?
Ron Jaworski?
Craig Morton?
Earl Morall?

[Zouk]

The basic point of the column is correct.

Having the #1 overall pick in the year Manning is the virtual consensus #1 QB vs. the year in which Tim Couch is the consensus #1 QB IS luck.

Having Tom Brady fall into your lap in the 6th round after you've taken Dave Stachelski and Jeff Marriott in the 5th IS mostly luck.

[KCJohnny]

The basic point of the column is correct.

Having the #1 overall pick in the year Manning is the virtual consensus #1 QB vs. the year in which Tim Couch is the consensus #1 QB IS luck.

Having Tom Brady fall into your lap in the 6th round after you've taken Dave Stachelski and Jeff Marriott in the 5th IS mostly luck.

:thumb:

[cdcox]

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms? - Drafted and developed by the Giants
Jeff Hostettler? - Simms broke his foot in mid-December in their SB year.
Ron Jaworski? - never won a SB
Craig Morton?- drafted and developed by Dallas, but never won a SB depite losing two.
Earl Morall? -

So now we are up to draft your own QB and develop him OR try to win a SB with

1) Trent Dilpher
2) Brad Johnson
3) Mark Rypien
4) Earl Morrall
5) hope your starter breaks his foot.


I'm going to stick with "Draft your own QB and develop him".

[cdcox]

As a fan, I consider having GMs and head coaches that have not started a QB that they have drafted in over 20 years to be decidedly bad luck for me.

[Zouk]

As a fan, I consider having GMs and head coaches that have not started a QB that they have drafted in over 20 years to be decidedly bad luck for me.

Congratulations, your bad luck is over!

Now pray that the guy can play.

[cdcox]

Congratulations, your bad luck is over!

Now pray that the guy can play.

Amen.

[KCJohnny]

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms? - Drafted and developed by the Giants
Jeff Hostettler? - Simms broke his foot in mid-December in their SB year.
Ron Jaworski? - never won a SB
Craig Morton?- drafted and developed by Dallas, but never won a SB depite losing two.
Earl Morall? -

So now we are up to draft your own QB and develop him OR try to win a SB with

1) Trent Dilpher
2) Brad Johnson
3) Mark Rypien
4) Earl Morrall
5) hope your starter breaks his foot.


I'm going to stick with "Draft your own QB and develop him".

Rypien and Morall were big stars in their eras.

[RJ]

The basic point of the column is correct.

Having the #1 overall pick in the year Manning is the virtual consensus #1 QB vs. the year in which Tim Couch is the consensus #1 QB IS luck.

Having Tom Brady fall into your lap in the 6th round after you've taken Dave Stachelski and Jeff Marriott in the 5th IS mostly luck.



Football is a business, and as in any business a certain amount of luck is required to be successful. But its not coincidence that certain companies or people or teams get lucky more often than others. The other NFL teams had about 200 chances to be luckier than New England but they weren't.

Also, I think you sell the Patriots short to suggest they had nothing to do with Brady's success. His supporting cast and coaches surely had something to do with it.

[milkman]

Mark Rypien?
Phil Simms? - Drafted and developed by the Giants
Jeff Hostettler? - Simms broke his foot in mid-December in their SB year.
Ron Jaworski? - never won a SB
Craig Morton?- drafted and developed by Dallas, but never won a SB depite losing two.
Earl Morall? -

So now we are up to draft your own QB and develop him OR try to win a SB with

1) Trent Dilpher
2) Brad Johnson
3) Mark Rypien
4) Earl Morrall
5) hope your starter breaks his foot.


I'm going to stick with "Draft your own QB and develop him".

For the record, Hostettler was also drafted by the Giants.

If he wants to go old school, how about these guys?

Bart Starr
Joe Namath
Johnny Unitas
Roger Staubach
Terry Bradshaw
Kenny Stabler

[milkman]

Rypien and Morall were big stars in their eras.

And Rypien was a Redskin draft pick.

[RJ]

Rypien and Morall were big stars in their eras.



Big reach, KCJ. Morrall started for the Colts that season only because Unitas was injured. As to Rypien, I sure don't remember him as a "big star". Maybe my memory is fuzzy?

[cdcox]

Rypien and Morall were big stars in their eras.

I watched both play.

Rypien went to two probowls. He was about equivalent to Matt Hasselback today. A decent QB, but not someone that I'd build a franchise around.

Morrall did start a large number of games over his 20 year career, but was genearally regarded as a journeyman. He was probably a bit better than that, since the league had fewere teams back then. But not a "big star."

[RJ]

Morrall played for 6 teams.

[Mecca]

Mark Rypien had a great year their bowl year, he was pretty average outside of that.

[KCJohnny]

1991 was arguably Rypien's best season; he threw for 3,564 yards and 28 touchdowns with 11 interceptions, leading the Redskins to Super Bowl XXVI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXVI) after recording a 14-2 regular season record. He was named the MVP (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_Valuable_Player) (Most Valuable Player) of the game, passing for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns and leading his team to a 37-24 win over the Buffalo Bills (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_Bills). Rypien was named to the Pro Bowl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl) in both 1989 and 1991.

[alanm]

A lot of these guys flat out STUNK in their first seasons. Aikman went 1-15!!!!
Brady, Warner and Young were just back up QBs who were thrust into the starting position because the #1 QB was injured. So Carl/Rufus is right in some regard.

John Unitas and Len Dawson were bench warmers early in their careers. Some of the greatest never made it to the big dance - Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, John Brodie, Jim Everett, Archie Manning, Jim Hart, etc...
John, You had me until you mentioned Everett. In no way, shape, or form should he be listed among the greatest. :shake:
At least Ferragamo got the Rams to a SB. Everett was kinda like Jeff George. All arm, no brains. Ferragamo on the other hand is a MD now.

[Rasputin]

IMO/Having our own home grown QB allows us to build a long term team that gives us manny years of SB attempts. Building a team around a young QB and getting better each year making the playoffs with the same QB allows us a bigger window of opportunity to get to the Super Bowl. Aikmans first year 1-15, but they put the peases together and built themself a dynasty. Peyton Manning 3-13 his first year, but they grew as a team and have had manny shots at the playoffs and finally got the SB. If the Colts disregarded Peyton after his first year and went with an old vet like the Chiefs do then they probabley wouldn't have won a Super Bowl.

We had Joe Montana for a short time, no Super Bowl. Bono sucked, Dave Kreig sucked, Gannon & Elvi Grrbitch WTF happend? Trent was our longest active QB under Carl Peterson but only had one real shot at a Super Bowl but we didn't have a defense to stop Indy 2003. Then Trent & the team got old quick and so go's the history of the KC Chiefs.

I think we are finally doing the right thing and building upon the QBOTF Brodie Croyle.

[Logical]

The flaw with the story is that most of the QBs were young when traded or picked up off waivers/free agency. Not example comparable to the Chiefs history.

[ILChief]

GOOD GOD WILL THEY STOP WITH THE RUFUS CRAP!!!!!

EMBARASSING

[BigRedChief]

It's really tough to win a Super Bowl!
It's really tough to win an AFC championship!
It's really tough to win a playoff game!
It's really tough to find good players!
It's really tough to compete in the NFL!

In other words, people, DON'T HOLD ME TO SOME RIDICULOUS STANDARD! Especially after 19 ****ing seasons!

Hey, I keep the stadium clean, I supply the uniforms. I let you in the parking lot early so you can hold cookouts and shit. What more do you ****ing want!?!
ROFL

[BigRedChief]

GOOD GOD WILL THEY STOP WITH THE RUFUS CRAP!!!!!

EMBARASSING
It is beyond embrassing. Using an annonymus writer to lash out at the media on your own website is so wrong on so many levels.:shake: