Tribal Warfare
12-20-2007, 05:37 PM
http://www.draftking.com/nfl/2008/mockdraft.shtml
2008 NFL Mock Draft
Last Updated: December 19, 2007
Unless the Dolphins win at New England against the 14-0 Patriots this upcoming weekend, and then beat Cincinnati at home the following week, they will have the first pick in the draft. And even if they win out, there's still a chance that they'll end up with the top pick.
This draft order reflects the NFL Opponent Win Percentage tiebreakers among teams with identical records, though there are a number of ties in there at the moment.
Keep in mind that the Super Bowl runner up will draft at the #31 spot and the Super Bowl winner will draft at #32, regardless of what record each team had in the regular season.
2008 NFL Mock Draft
1. Miami Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Unless Miami wins out, this pick is theirs. The team's overtime win over Baltimore was thrilling and allowed the team to avoid a horrible 0-16 fate.
In my estimation, that win makes it even less likely that the franchise would take Darren McFadden in this spot. At 0-16, a team might do anything to light a fire and give the fan base something to be excited about, and McFadden would certainly do that.
But without 0-for-2007 hanging over their heads, logic should prevail in this position. Injured RB Ronnie Brown (torn ACL) has two years remaining on his contract after this season, and the Dolphins just have too many needs to use their top pick on a running back for a split-time situation, barring a major setback in Brown's recovery process.
From a need standpoint, Glenn Dorsey would fill a huge hole at defensive tackle on a team that has had a horrible time stopping the run in 2007. They have given up an NFL-worst 155.9 rushing yards per game, and that includes the quagmire game in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only managed 84 yards on the ground playing in a virtual swamp.
Dorsey, who won the 2007 Bronko Nagurski Trophy (beating out last year's winner, Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis), is a phenomenal talent. Dorsey would be able to start immediately and have an instant impact in the middle. He is an elite player who has suffered through back and knee injuries and had the guts to remain on the field for LSU down the stretch.
Late note: Bill Parcells is reportedly considering taking a front office job with Miami. If that happens, I think it's even *more* likely that Dorsey would go to the Dolphins with the #1 pick.
2. St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Rams have had an overwhelming number of injuries this year, but the most difficult of those to overcome has been the opening day injury to left OT Orlando Pace. Not only was in the second time in as many years that the Rams lost Pace for the season with a triceps injury, it threw the team's capable offense into chaos.
Long is the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. He opened holes all year for Mike Hart (and his backups), and he should allow the Rams to go into 2008 with some much-needed depth at the offensive line, if not the opportunity for both Pace and Long to play (with Long moving into Pace's spot whenever Pace finally hangs it up.)
3. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas *
While Virginia DE Chris Long would be a fantastic addition to the Jets defense, McFadden is a rare talent who has incredible potential as a pro. While Adrian Peterson (the Vikings version, not the Georgia Southern grad) has had one of the best rookie RB seasons ever, keep in mind that, comparing Peterson one year ago to McFadden now, McFadden is a higher-ranked prospect than Peterson was in December 2006.
Yes, the Jets brought in Thomas Jones this past off-season (dealing Chicago a high second rounder for a low second rounder in the 2007 Draft) and signed him to a bloated contract, but Jones has been rather ineffective this year, posting a poor 3.6 yards per carry average. Moreover, Jones turns 30 before the start of the next season, which historically is the point when RBs hit the wall.
The fact that the Jets are 30th against the run this year might be enough to get them to take Long over McFadden, but in the end I think McFadden would get the nod here.
4. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
There are strong indications from Atlanta that the Falcons will take a QB in the first round (or perhaps second) and then have him sit for a year and prep for 2009. That's not the most exciting prospect for Falcons season ticket holders, but what should be reason to be happy is having the chance to take their pick of the QB class.
Forget Bobby Petrino; if the Falcons brass (in particular GM John McKay, supposing he survives the off-season) likes Brian Brohm the best out of the bunch, I think he'll be the man taken here. I personally think that Ryan has the inside edge right now, though I personally think Woodson is the most promising prospect of the bunch. But what I think and what the scouts think is immaterial; ultimately, it will likely come down to what the *Falcons* think is best for their long-term future.
5. New England Patriots (from 49ers) - James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State *
This was easily my most difficult decision in this latest mock draft. Virginia DE Chris Long is such a talented, high-impact defensive end that it seems very difficult that he could fall past the Patriots. But with New England having big money tied up in Ty Warren and Richard Seymour, I just don't see how they could justify taking Long at this spot. It's one thing to take a non-need player in Darren McFadden, who could add an entire new dimension to the offense, but it's another to take a great player at a spot that's already secure for the long-term.
Laurinaitis is a superior MLB who would fill a huge need for New England. This is a slightly high spot to take him, but at #5 there's likely no trading down for the Pats, due to rookie salary cap ramifications and the associated glass wall separating the top five picks from the rest of the draft.
6. Baltimore Ravens - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
There are rumors swirling that the Ravens may lose franchise left OT Jonathan Ogden to retirement. If that happens, it's possible that the Ravens may look to the draft to add a high-end tackle, though they landed Maryland OT Jared Gaither in the 2007 Supplemental Draft, and if he has developed as they hoped he would, it's possible that Gaither may be starting at left offensive tackle in 2008.
The Ravens only have one major free-agent-to-be in Terrell Suggs. They could go with linebacker Dan Connor here. But, with the Ravens having so much difficulty performing on offense, and Steve McNair turning 35 this upcoming February, a quarterback like Woodson would be a great addition to the team. Brian Brohm would be a consideration here as well, but I'd think that Woodson would get the nod over Brohm with his pinpoint accuracy. We shall see.
Kyle Boller played a great game against the Patriots, but he came off of that game with a three interception debacle against Indianapolis on Sunday night and then ended up getting concussed in the overtime loss at Miami. I strongly suspect that Boller will not be in the team's long-term future beyond a backup role.
An "X Factor" is the presence of Troy Smith on the roster, and how the team evaluates his development will also play a role in what they do in this spot. But with the chance to get Woodson here, I strongly suspect the Ravens will jump at the opportunity.
7. Kansas City Chiefs - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Jared Allen is an impending unrestricted free agent. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they will likely need to make a move on him before knowing if such a scenario like this one would play out with Long being on the board here. It's possible that Kansas City could use the franchise tag on Allen and, in the event they land Long, immediately revoke it, but that's a tricky situation to handle.
There is something that strongly doesn't "feel right" about Chris Long falling to #7, but then again Adrian Peterson went #7 last year and things have turned out okay for him so far. While the Chiefs have offensive tackle issues, among needs at many other spots, Long would help a defense that is 26th against the run this year.
8. Oakland Raiders - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Raiders have a few glaring needs, in particular on their offensive line. But stopping the run has also been a problem (giving up more than 150 rushing yards per game, only better than the Dolphins), and while their defensive ends have been able to get to the QB at times, the combo of Warren Sapp (who turns 35 later this month) and Broncos castoff Gerard Warren have been ineffective in the middle.
Ellis is strong (with a reported bench press max of 510 pounds), and while at 6'1" he's shorter than normal for the position, he would immediately help the Raiders stop the run. The Raiders have been underrated as far as credit against the pass goes, and adding Ellis could give the Raiders some much-needed balance against the rush.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Balmer is a shooting star, making a late run up draft boards thanks to an outstanding season. The Bengals have a desperate need to stop the run, and Balmer would provide a stabilizing force for the team in the middle.
I strongly suspect that the Bengals would prefer Ellis over Balmer, but I'm not sure that Cincinnati would necessarily trade up to get him.
10. Chicago Bears - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Bears are struggling, in large part because of injuries on defense, but also because of problems at the quarterback position. Brian Brohm would have possibly been a top ten pick had he entered the 2007 NFL Draft, and while Louisville struggled to a 6-6 record this year, it wasn't because of how Brohm played.
Rex Grossman is entering free agency this off-season, and he'll almost for sure be playing elsewhere in 2008. Kyle Orton wasn't particularly successful againt the Vikings on Monday night, and clearly the team needs to do something to improve its QB roster.
11. Arizona Cardinals - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Arizona OLBs Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace are both facing impending free agency, and both are making less than $1,000,000 each on the final year of their respective contracts. It would be tough for the Cards to keep them both, especially with an opportunity to land a high-end LB in this spot. While Connor played MLB in 2007, he was just as successful from the OLB spot in years past at Penn State, and he might actually be a better fit on the Cards than James Laurinaitis would be.
12. Denver Broncos - Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami *
In a draft that is light at the safety position, Phillips stands out as a top-tier prospect. The Broncos have needs at defensive tackle, but if Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer are gone, the chance to snag Phillips may be the next best option for the Broncos.
While John Lynch has played very well for Denver since leaving Tampa Bay, the reality is that he'll turn 37 in September of next year, and the time is now to bring a new, high-end safety to Denver.
13. Carolina Panthers - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State *
Mike Rucker will turn 33 in February, and he'll be an unrestricted free agent after this season. And while Carolina's offense, particularly its passing game, has been in shambles this year, the chance to add a talented defensive lineman like Gholston would be most helpful for the Panthers.
14. Detroit Lions - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State *
The Lions traded away CB Dre Bly this past off-season and lack a big-time playmaker at that spot. Through 14 games, the Lions are #31 against the pass. And, short of breaking the bank to land Patriots CB Asante Samuel (who is in line for a mega payday after this year and who cannot be franchised), the Lions will have to look to the draft to get a high-end corner talent.
Jenkins has started at CB at Ohio State since he was a true freshman in 2005; he has good height and elite speed. He would be a most beneficial addition for a Lions team that has fallen apart in the second half of the 2007 season.
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami *
There are no glaring needs for the Eagles on offense, and traditionally Philly goes toward the line (both offensive and defensive) in the first round of the draft. Campbell is a huge human being, and he is quick and skilled at sacking the quarterback. With Campbell and Trent Cole on the ends, the Eagles could have a very strong pass rush, the type of pressure that they had hoped they'd get out of Javon Kearse, who is likely going to be cut his upcoming off-season.
16. New Orleans Saints - Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
One of the worst deals of the past off-season was New Orleans signing 5'8" CB Jason David, a restricted free agent from the Colts, to a 4-year, $15.8 million dollar deal. The guy played in the Tampa Two in Indy, but that didn't stop the Saints from forking over big cash in a deal that they figured, rightfully so, that the Colts wouldn't match. Often times, players from Super Bowl champions get big paydays elsewhere, but when they are put into a system that doesn't suit them well, it can be problematic.
The result in the David deal for the Saints is that New Orleans is 30th against the pass this year, giving up almost 250 passing yards per game. David had looked terrible in man coverage, almost to an embarrassing level. It's been bad enough to make many Saints fans forget about Fred Thomas getting burned bad in 2006. To point, David has missed three full games this year: all Saints wins.
Enter Terrell Thomas, a 6'1" 200 pound corner from USC who has both the size, and speed, to make an immediate impact. While OLB might also be a consideration (in particular Thomas' USC teammate Keith Rivers), Sean Peyton brought over OLBs Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita from Dallas in 2006, and I suspect that they'll be held over in the starting OLB spots next year. Also, there will be a wealth of free agent outside linebackers this year, to the point where it could skew the draft.
17. Buffalo Bills - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
It's really remarkable that the Bills have won as many games as they have this year when you consider that they are 28th against the pass and 22nd against the rush. They were decemated by free agent departures last off-season, from CB Nate Clements to LBs London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes. The guys filling those spots have played hard, but clearly a talent infusion is needed.
Adding Rivers to last year's draft steal Paul Posluszny and underrated Angelo Crowell would create a great trio at LB. Yes, that would also create the dilemma of who would play MLB, but Poz has experience with that from his senior year at Penn State.
But the bottom line is this: Rivers is a 6'3" 245 pound tackling machine who runs a sub-4.6 40, which could make him very valuable in stopping the run.
18. Houston Texans - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon *
The Texans haven't had a strong option at running back since the 2005 injury, and subsequent retirement, of Domanick Davis (a.k.a. Domanick Williams). Ahman Green has proven to be yet another example of the low-end payoff of bringing in a 30-year-old running back to carry the load, and with the RB talent that should be present in this draft, there should be many players from which to choose for the Texans.
The four-year contract Green signed is going to haunt the Texans; the $5 million signing bonus was tough, the $3 million earned in salary and roster bonus in 2007 was stiff, and the large salaries lined up for the next three years will make it difficult to justify retaining him, particularly in years three and four.
There are a wide variety of running backs for the Texans to choose from, including Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall, but Stewart is a truly unusual mix of speed and bulk who would fit quite nicely into the Texans offense.
19. Washington Redskins - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida *
While Andre Carter is having a great year at defensive end for the Redskins, adding a young player on the other side to bring the heat would make Washington that much more volatile.
Harvey became the focal point for opposing offenses in 2007 after losing many of his outstanding defensive line teammates from the 2006 BCS Title team to the NFL (and his three sack performance against Ohio State to end last season), yet he still managed to lead the Gators in sacks this year.
20. Minnesota Vikings - Mike Jenkins, CB, USF
The Vikings are solid against the run, but they've given up more passing yards per game than any team so far this year. Some of that is related to the huge leads that the Vikings have had in some games this year, but ultimately a solid defender like Jenkins could fit in quite well with the Vikings. Quarterback could end up as a need if Tarvaris Jackson ends the season with more games like the debacle of a performance he had against the Bears on Monday night, though that would be more likely to be handled via free agency, perhaps even via restricted free agent Derek Anderson, or by getting in on the Donovan McNabb sweepstakes.
But, considering their draft position and the likelihood that the "Big Three" QBs will be off the board by this point, adding a talented player to help against the pass would make the most sense for the Vikings.
21. Tennessee Titans - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
I've been saying for two years now that the Titans desperately need to bring in a top flight wide receiver for Vince Young. And after the embarrassing number of drops by the Titans receivers on national television against Denver earlier this month, now others are jumping on the bandwagon. The regulars at LP Field know all about this, but it's becoming a much more obvious problem to the mainstream. Vince Young makes a medicore receiving corps look much better than it is, and those who have criticized his play I think are off base. Sweed and Young played together when the University of Texas won the BCS Title in the 2005 season, and them reuniting would be quite intriguing. I'm convinced that the Titans will do whatever they have to do to keep Albert Haynesworth after seeing the defense play at a much lower level without him, particularly against the run. Who would have thought that would happen just 13 months ago, when he stomped on Andre Gurode and received a five game suspension?
22. Seattle Seahawks - Sam Baker, OT, USC
Yes, the Seahawks could use a young wide receiver, particularly one as explosive as DeSean Jackson. But in every draft there are players who free-fall, often not because of any fault of their own but because of a variety of other factors.
In this particular layout, the victim of the free-fall is Sam Baker. Would he really fall to #22? It seems unlikely on the surface, but when you look at the rosters of the teams in that 12-19 or so range, it seems possible that a guy like Baker could slide. Even in cases where a team might be tempted to take him, there are overwhelming needs that make me believe that Baker could be passed on.
The result for Seattle would be landing a top-flight offensive tackle with the ability to fill multiple spots in the offensive line. That would be a major coup for the Seahawks and would put Seattle in a position to add a top ten talent at a great value spot.
23. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal *
This isn't exactly the spot that the Cowboys had in mind when they acquired Cleveland's 2008 first round pick, but those are the breaks. As it is, the chance to land a top notch WR is still very positive for the Cowboys. Consider that while the Cowboys have had strong production from Patrick Crayton in place of the injured Terry Glenn, Glenn is 33 and Terrell Owens has just turned 34, and some youth would be most useful at the position.
Moreover, Jackson has game-changing ability from a special teams standpoint, a skill that should make him that much more appealing to Jerry Jones and company.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Otah is a relatively green player as far as his football experience goes, but he has impressive size (6'6" 340) and has perhaps made the greatest strides in improving of any offensive lineman in college ball. The Steelers should know all about Otah from him being in the same city, and he could turn into a solid pickup for Pittsburgh.
With Max Starks and Alan Faneca likely departing as free agents, adding skill players to the offensive line will be important for the Steelers this off-season, even though Starks lost his job to Willie Colon. Ask Peyton Manning about how important having depth at offensive tackle is.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn
While Derrick Brooks continues to put up amazing stats for a 34 year old, eventually time will catch up with him. Groves is a true game-changer, with the ability to come from multiple spots on the blitz or cover the middle from the OLB spot.
Groves' injury (three dislocated toes) in the Florida game has taken him out of the spotlight, and while he has played since then, he has been far from 100%. But, when healthy, he is a difference maker who disrupts the passing game while stuffing the run. I personally consider him to be a legit Top 5 prospect, though he may settle into this range, if not lower. He is the real deal and would be a great pick for the Bucs as the team slowly but surely injects star youth into its defense.
26. New York Giants - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas *
While the Giants had success in general against the pass this year, a great deal of credit for that belongs to the pass rush of the front four of the defense. That's not to discredit the work of the secondary, but adding a dynamic, tall (6'2"), and speedy playmaker in the form of Talib would make the Giants secondary even more menacing.
27. San Diego Chargers - Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
This is an interesting spot for the Chargers, as they need to gain maximum value from this pick since they have traded away (or lost via the 2007 Supplemental Draft) their picks in rounds two, three, and four. San Diego trading down wouldn't surprise me at all, but with need at LB, Highsmith may be too tempting to pass up. With the various stances and personnel changes that the Chargers like to use, Highsmith would be a most welcome addition, as he is great at sniffing out the run and also excellent at bringing the heat on the blitz.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma *
Despite being overall strong on defense and having two playmakers in the secondary (Rashean Mathis and Reggie Nelson), the Jags are 18th against the pass in the NFL this year, giving up more than 200 yards per game. That's not *terrible*, but if the Jaguars want to get over the hump and make it past the Colts, adding another young, talented player to the secondary could be just what the doctor ordered.
29. Green Bay Packers - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
The further you get from the top of the draft, the more difficult it becomes to accurately project what player will go where, as teams can have very different evaluations of the "second tier" and below.
One exception may be at running back for the Packers, where there should be some blue chip talent available for them at this spot. Unlike last year, where there was a drastic drop from Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, there should be a wealth of RB talent on the board when the Packers pick, depending of course of how many of the strong junior RBs come out (as discussed here.)
Mendenhall steadily climbed the RB ranks as the season went on for Illinois. It may be too close to call between Mendenhall and Arkansas RB Felix Jones, but a talent like Mendenhall would have the ability to start for the Packers on day one and add a much needed dimension to the Packers offense. Yes, Ryan Grant's improbable last several weeks has been impressive, but ultimately a bona fide superstar RB is what the Packers need, particularly if the Brett Favre era ends at the end of this season.
30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma *
The 49ers have been in a free-fall, in no small part because of the team's inability to throw the ball -- they're dead last in passing yards per game. The receiving corps is a mess, and it's time to look to the draft for help there.
Kelly, at 6'4", has the height to allow himself to gain separation from corners. And while it's true that the 49ers have a trio of 6'0" or taller receivers (Arnez Battle, Ashley Lelie, and Darrell Jackson) as well as the tall receiving threat of TE Vernon Davis, and there might be the temptation to go with a burner here, Kelly has the goods as far as having the ability to get open. Early Doucet, Andre Caldwell, and even a speedster like underrated Louisville WR Harry Douglas may get a look here, and if the 49ers like multiple guys (without one standing out as "the one" for them), they might look to trade down into round two to land who they want at a lower price.
31. Dallas Cowboys - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State *
**NOTE** While Indianapolis actually has a higher opponent win percentage than Dallas, two AFC teams cannot fill the final two spots since #31 goes to the Super Bowl runner-up and the #32 position goes to the Super Bowl champ. Just so you know that I know...
Flozell Adams is going to be an unrestricted free agent this year. And while pricy free agent OL Leonard Davis has played guard for the Cowboys after starting his career as a tackle, perhaps that's his best fit: note that Davis made the Pro Bowl this year. If Dallas is unable or unwilling to bring back Adams, a talent like Clady may be worth considering.
By the same token, if Felix Jones is on the board here, the Cowboys may opt to add him to fill the spot likely to be vacated by the departure of Julius Jones to free agency. Marion Barber, III is having a solid year, but the two RB offense has worked quite well for the Cowboys, and having it be a duo of Barber and Felix Jones makes them even more dangerous. With two picks late in round one, the Cowboys should have a number of options, and what they opt to do will be most fascinating to follow.
interesting Mock Draft
2008 NFL Mock Draft
Last Updated: December 19, 2007
Unless the Dolphins win at New England against the 14-0 Patriots this upcoming weekend, and then beat Cincinnati at home the following week, they will have the first pick in the draft. And even if they win out, there's still a chance that they'll end up with the top pick.
This draft order reflects the NFL Opponent Win Percentage tiebreakers among teams with identical records, though there are a number of ties in there at the moment.
Keep in mind that the Super Bowl runner up will draft at the #31 spot and the Super Bowl winner will draft at #32, regardless of what record each team had in the regular season.
2008 NFL Mock Draft
1. Miami Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Unless Miami wins out, this pick is theirs. The team's overtime win over Baltimore was thrilling and allowed the team to avoid a horrible 0-16 fate.
In my estimation, that win makes it even less likely that the franchise would take Darren McFadden in this spot. At 0-16, a team might do anything to light a fire and give the fan base something to be excited about, and McFadden would certainly do that.
But without 0-for-2007 hanging over their heads, logic should prevail in this position. Injured RB Ronnie Brown (torn ACL) has two years remaining on his contract after this season, and the Dolphins just have too many needs to use their top pick on a running back for a split-time situation, barring a major setback in Brown's recovery process.
From a need standpoint, Glenn Dorsey would fill a huge hole at defensive tackle on a team that has had a horrible time stopping the run in 2007. They have given up an NFL-worst 155.9 rushing yards per game, and that includes the quagmire game in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only managed 84 yards on the ground playing in a virtual swamp.
Dorsey, who won the 2007 Bronko Nagurski Trophy (beating out last year's winner, Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis), is a phenomenal talent. Dorsey would be able to start immediately and have an instant impact in the middle. He is an elite player who has suffered through back and knee injuries and had the guts to remain on the field for LSU down the stretch.
Late note: Bill Parcells is reportedly considering taking a front office job with Miami. If that happens, I think it's even *more* likely that Dorsey would go to the Dolphins with the #1 pick.
2. St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Rams have had an overwhelming number of injuries this year, but the most difficult of those to overcome has been the opening day injury to left OT Orlando Pace. Not only was in the second time in as many years that the Rams lost Pace for the season with a triceps injury, it threw the team's capable offense into chaos.
Long is the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. He opened holes all year for Mike Hart (and his backups), and he should allow the Rams to go into 2008 with some much-needed depth at the offensive line, if not the opportunity for both Pace and Long to play (with Long moving into Pace's spot whenever Pace finally hangs it up.)
3. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas *
While Virginia DE Chris Long would be a fantastic addition to the Jets defense, McFadden is a rare talent who has incredible potential as a pro. While Adrian Peterson (the Vikings version, not the Georgia Southern grad) has had one of the best rookie RB seasons ever, keep in mind that, comparing Peterson one year ago to McFadden now, McFadden is a higher-ranked prospect than Peterson was in December 2006.
Yes, the Jets brought in Thomas Jones this past off-season (dealing Chicago a high second rounder for a low second rounder in the 2007 Draft) and signed him to a bloated contract, but Jones has been rather ineffective this year, posting a poor 3.6 yards per carry average. Moreover, Jones turns 30 before the start of the next season, which historically is the point when RBs hit the wall.
The fact that the Jets are 30th against the run this year might be enough to get them to take Long over McFadden, but in the end I think McFadden would get the nod here.
4. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
There are strong indications from Atlanta that the Falcons will take a QB in the first round (or perhaps second) and then have him sit for a year and prep for 2009. That's not the most exciting prospect for Falcons season ticket holders, but what should be reason to be happy is having the chance to take their pick of the QB class.
Forget Bobby Petrino; if the Falcons brass (in particular GM John McKay, supposing he survives the off-season) likes Brian Brohm the best out of the bunch, I think he'll be the man taken here. I personally think that Ryan has the inside edge right now, though I personally think Woodson is the most promising prospect of the bunch. But what I think and what the scouts think is immaterial; ultimately, it will likely come down to what the *Falcons* think is best for their long-term future.
5. New England Patriots (from 49ers) - James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State *
This was easily my most difficult decision in this latest mock draft. Virginia DE Chris Long is such a talented, high-impact defensive end that it seems very difficult that he could fall past the Patriots. But with New England having big money tied up in Ty Warren and Richard Seymour, I just don't see how they could justify taking Long at this spot. It's one thing to take a non-need player in Darren McFadden, who could add an entire new dimension to the offense, but it's another to take a great player at a spot that's already secure for the long-term.
Laurinaitis is a superior MLB who would fill a huge need for New England. This is a slightly high spot to take him, but at #5 there's likely no trading down for the Pats, due to rookie salary cap ramifications and the associated glass wall separating the top five picks from the rest of the draft.
6. Baltimore Ravens - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
There are rumors swirling that the Ravens may lose franchise left OT Jonathan Ogden to retirement. If that happens, it's possible that the Ravens may look to the draft to add a high-end tackle, though they landed Maryland OT Jared Gaither in the 2007 Supplemental Draft, and if he has developed as they hoped he would, it's possible that Gaither may be starting at left offensive tackle in 2008.
The Ravens only have one major free-agent-to-be in Terrell Suggs. They could go with linebacker Dan Connor here. But, with the Ravens having so much difficulty performing on offense, and Steve McNair turning 35 this upcoming February, a quarterback like Woodson would be a great addition to the team. Brian Brohm would be a consideration here as well, but I'd think that Woodson would get the nod over Brohm with his pinpoint accuracy. We shall see.
Kyle Boller played a great game against the Patriots, but he came off of that game with a three interception debacle against Indianapolis on Sunday night and then ended up getting concussed in the overtime loss at Miami. I strongly suspect that Boller will not be in the team's long-term future beyond a backup role.
An "X Factor" is the presence of Troy Smith on the roster, and how the team evaluates his development will also play a role in what they do in this spot. But with the chance to get Woodson here, I strongly suspect the Ravens will jump at the opportunity.
7. Kansas City Chiefs - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Jared Allen is an impending unrestricted free agent. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they will likely need to make a move on him before knowing if such a scenario like this one would play out with Long being on the board here. It's possible that Kansas City could use the franchise tag on Allen and, in the event they land Long, immediately revoke it, but that's a tricky situation to handle.
There is something that strongly doesn't "feel right" about Chris Long falling to #7, but then again Adrian Peterson went #7 last year and things have turned out okay for him so far. While the Chiefs have offensive tackle issues, among needs at many other spots, Long would help a defense that is 26th against the run this year.
8. Oakland Raiders - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Raiders have a few glaring needs, in particular on their offensive line. But stopping the run has also been a problem (giving up more than 150 rushing yards per game, only better than the Dolphins), and while their defensive ends have been able to get to the QB at times, the combo of Warren Sapp (who turns 35 later this month) and Broncos castoff Gerard Warren have been ineffective in the middle.
Ellis is strong (with a reported bench press max of 510 pounds), and while at 6'1" he's shorter than normal for the position, he would immediately help the Raiders stop the run. The Raiders have been underrated as far as credit against the pass goes, and adding Ellis could give the Raiders some much-needed balance against the rush.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Balmer is a shooting star, making a late run up draft boards thanks to an outstanding season. The Bengals have a desperate need to stop the run, and Balmer would provide a stabilizing force for the team in the middle.
I strongly suspect that the Bengals would prefer Ellis over Balmer, but I'm not sure that Cincinnati would necessarily trade up to get him.
10. Chicago Bears - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Bears are struggling, in large part because of injuries on defense, but also because of problems at the quarterback position. Brian Brohm would have possibly been a top ten pick had he entered the 2007 NFL Draft, and while Louisville struggled to a 6-6 record this year, it wasn't because of how Brohm played.
Rex Grossman is entering free agency this off-season, and he'll almost for sure be playing elsewhere in 2008. Kyle Orton wasn't particularly successful againt the Vikings on Monday night, and clearly the team needs to do something to improve its QB roster.
11. Arizona Cardinals - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
Arizona OLBs Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace are both facing impending free agency, and both are making less than $1,000,000 each on the final year of their respective contracts. It would be tough for the Cards to keep them both, especially with an opportunity to land a high-end LB in this spot. While Connor played MLB in 2007, he was just as successful from the OLB spot in years past at Penn State, and he might actually be a better fit on the Cards than James Laurinaitis would be.
12. Denver Broncos - Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami *
In a draft that is light at the safety position, Phillips stands out as a top-tier prospect. The Broncos have needs at defensive tackle, but if Sedrick Ellis and Kentwan Balmer are gone, the chance to snag Phillips may be the next best option for the Broncos.
While John Lynch has played very well for Denver since leaving Tampa Bay, the reality is that he'll turn 37 in September of next year, and the time is now to bring a new, high-end safety to Denver.
13. Carolina Panthers - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State *
Mike Rucker will turn 33 in February, and he'll be an unrestricted free agent after this season. And while Carolina's offense, particularly its passing game, has been in shambles this year, the chance to add a talented defensive lineman like Gholston would be most helpful for the Panthers.
14. Detroit Lions - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State *
The Lions traded away CB Dre Bly this past off-season and lack a big-time playmaker at that spot. Through 14 games, the Lions are #31 against the pass. And, short of breaking the bank to land Patriots CB Asante Samuel (who is in line for a mega payday after this year and who cannot be franchised), the Lions will have to look to the draft to get a high-end corner talent.
Jenkins has started at CB at Ohio State since he was a true freshman in 2005; he has good height and elite speed. He would be a most beneficial addition for a Lions team that has fallen apart in the second half of the 2007 season.
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami *
There are no glaring needs for the Eagles on offense, and traditionally Philly goes toward the line (both offensive and defensive) in the first round of the draft. Campbell is a huge human being, and he is quick and skilled at sacking the quarterback. With Campbell and Trent Cole on the ends, the Eagles could have a very strong pass rush, the type of pressure that they had hoped they'd get out of Javon Kearse, who is likely going to be cut his upcoming off-season.
16. New Orleans Saints - Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
One of the worst deals of the past off-season was New Orleans signing 5'8" CB Jason David, a restricted free agent from the Colts, to a 4-year, $15.8 million dollar deal. The guy played in the Tampa Two in Indy, but that didn't stop the Saints from forking over big cash in a deal that they figured, rightfully so, that the Colts wouldn't match. Often times, players from Super Bowl champions get big paydays elsewhere, but when they are put into a system that doesn't suit them well, it can be problematic.
The result in the David deal for the Saints is that New Orleans is 30th against the pass this year, giving up almost 250 passing yards per game. David had looked terrible in man coverage, almost to an embarrassing level. It's been bad enough to make many Saints fans forget about Fred Thomas getting burned bad in 2006. To point, David has missed three full games this year: all Saints wins.
Enter Terrell Thomas, a 6'1" 200 pound corner from USC who has both the size, and speed, to make an immediate impact. While OLB might also be a consideration (in particular Thomas' USC teammate Keith Rivers), Sean Peyton brought over OLBs Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita from Dallas in 2006, and I suspect that they'll be held over in the starting OLB spots next year. Also, there will be a wealth of free agent outside linebackers this year, to the point where it could skew the draft.
17. Buffalo Bills - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
It's really remarkable that the Bills have won as many games as they have this year when you consider that they are 28th against the pass and 22nd against the rush. They were decemated by free agent departures last off-season, from CB Nate Clements to LBs London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes. The guys filling those spots have played hard, but clearly a talent infusion is needed.
Adding Rivers to last year's draft steal Paul Posluszny and underrated Angelo Crowell would create a great trio at LB. Yes, that would also create the dilemma of who would play MLB, but Poz has experience with that from his senior year at Penn State.
But the bottom line is this: Rivers is a 6'3" 245 pound tackling machine who runs a sub-4.6 40, which could make him very valuable in stopping the run.
18. Houston Texans - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon *
The Texans haven't had a strong option at running back since the 2005 injury, and subsequent retirement, of Domanick Davis (a.k.a. Domanick Williams). Ahman Green has proven to be yet another example of the low-end payoff of bringing in a 30-year-old running back to carry the load, and with the RB talent that should be present in this draft, there should be many players from which to choose for the Texans.
The four-year contract Green signed is going to haunt the Texans; the $5 million signing bonus was tough, the $3 million earned in salary and roster bonus in 2007 was stiff, and the large salaries lined up for the next three years will make it difficult to justify retaining him, particularly in years three and four.
There are a wide variety of running backs for the Texans to choose from, including Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall, but Stewart is a truly unusual mix of speed and bulk who would fit quite nicely into the Texans offense.
19. Washington Redskins - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida *
While Andre Carter is having a great year at defensive end for the Redskins, adding a young player on the other side to bring the heat would make Washington that much more volatile.
Harvey became the focal point for opposing offenses in 2007 after losing many of his outstanding defensive line teammates from the 2006 BCS Title team to the NFL (and his three sack performance against Ohio State to end last season), yet he still managed to lead the Gators in sacks this year.
20. Minnesota Vikings - Mike Jenkins, CB, USF
The Vikings are solid against the run, but they've given up more passing yards per game than any team so far this year. Some of that is related to the huge leads that the Vikings have had in some games this year, but ultimately a solid defender like Jenkins could fit in quite well with the Vikings. Quarterback could end up as a need if Tarvaris Jackson ends the season with more games like the debacle of a performance he had against the Bears on Monday night, though that would be more likely to be handled via free agency, perhaps even via restricted free agent Derek Anderson, or by getting in on the Donovan McNabb sweepstakes.
But, considering their draft position and the likelihood that the "Big Three" QBs will be off the board by this point, adding a talented player to help against the pass would make the most sense for the Vikings.
21. Tennessee Titans - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
I've been saying for two years now that the Titans desperately need to bring in a top flight wide receiver for Vince Young. And after the embarrassing number of drops by the Titans receivers on national television against Denver earlier this month, now others are jumping on the bandwagon. The regulars at LP Field know all about this, but it's becoming a much more obvious problem to the mainstream. Vince Young makes a medicore receiving corps look much better than it is, and those who have criticized his play I think are off base. Sweed and Young played together when the University of Texas won the BCS Title in the 2005 season, and them reuniting would be quite intriguing. I'm convinced that the Titans will do whatever they have to do to keep Albert Haynesworth after seeing the defense play at a much lower level without him, particularly against the run. Who would have thought that would happen just 13 months ago, when he stomped on Andre Gurode and received a five game suspension?
22. Seattle Seahawks - Sam Baker, OT, USC
Yes, the Seahawks could use a young wide receiver, particularly one as explosive as DeSean Jackson. But in every draft there are players who free-fall, often not because of any fault of their own but because of a variety of other factors.
In this particular layout, the victim of the free-fall is Sam Baker. Would he really fall to #22? It seems unlikely on the surface, but when you look at the rosters of the teams in that 12-19 or so range, it seems possible that a guy like Baker could slide. Even in cases where a team might be tempted to take him, there are overwhelming needs that make me believe that Baker could be passed on.
The result for Seattle would be landing a top-flight offensive tackle with the ability to fill multiple spots in the offensive line. That would be a major coup for the Seahawks and would put Seattle in a position to add a top ten talent at a great value spot.
23. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal *
This isn't exactly the spot that the Cowboys had in mind when they acquired Cleveland's 2008 first round pick, but those are the breaks. As it is, the chance to land a top notch WR is still very positive for the Cowboys. Consider that while the Cowboys have had strong production from Patrick Crayton in place of the injured Terry Glenn, Glenn is 33 and Terrell Owens has just turned 34, and some youth would be most useful at the position.
Moreover, Jackson has game-changing ability from a special teams standpoint, a skill that should make him that much more appealing to Jerry Jones and company.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Otah is a relatively green player as far as his football experience goes, but he has impressive size (6'6" 340) and has perhaps made the greatest strides in improving of any offensive lineman in college ball. The Steelers should know all about Otah from him being in the same city, and he could turn into a solid pickup for Pittsburgh.
With Max Starks and Alan Faneca likely departing as free agents, adding skill players to the offensive line will be important for the Steelers this off-season, even though Starks lost his job to Willie Colon. Ask Peyton Manning about how important having depth at offensive tackle is.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn
While Derrick Brooks continues to put up amazing stats for a 34 year old, eventually time will catch up with him. Groves is a true game-changer, with the ability to come from multiple spots on the blitz or cover the middle from the OLB spot.
Groves' injury (three dislocated toes) in the Florida game has taken him out of the spotlight, and while he has played since then, he has been far from 100%. But, when healthy, he is a difference maker who disrupts the passing game while stuffing the run. I personally consider him to be a legit Top 5 prospect, though he may settle into this range, if not lower. He is the real deal and would be a great pick for the Bucs as the team slowly but surely injects star youth into its defense.
26. New York Giants - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas *
While the Giants had success in general against the pass this year, a great deal of credit for that belongs to the pass rush of the front four of the defense. That's not to discredit the work of the secondary, but adding a dynamic, tall (6'2"), and speedy playmaker in the form of Talib would make the Giants secondary even more menacing.
27. San Diego Chargers - Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
This is an interesting spot for the Chargers, as they need to gain maximum value from this pick since they have traded away (or lost via the 2007 Supplemental Draft) their picks in rounds two, three, and four. San Diego trading down wouldn't surprise me at all, but with need at LB, Highsmith may be too tempting to pass up. With the various stances and personnel changes that the Chargers like to use, Highsmith would be a most welcome addition, as he is great at sniffing out the run and also excellent at bringing the heat on the blitz.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma *
Despite being overall strong on defense and having two playmakers in the secondary (Rashean Mathis and Reggie Nelson), the Jags are 18th against the pass in the NFL this year, giving up more than 200 yards per game. That's not *terrible*, but if the Jaguars want to get over the hump and make it past the Colts, adding another young, talented player to the secondary could be just what the doctor ordered.
29. Green Bay Packers - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
The further you get from the top of the draft, the more difficult it becomes to accurately project what player will go where, as teams can have very different evaluations of the "second tier" and below.
One exception may be at running back for the Packers, where there should be some blue chip talent available for them at this spot. Unlike last year, where there was a drastic drop from Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, there should be a wealth of RB talent on the board when the Packers pick, depending of course of how many of the strong junior RBs come out (as discussed here.)
Mendenhall steadily climbed the RB ranks as the season went on for Illinois. It may be too close to call between Mendenhall and Arkansas RB Felix Jones, but a talent like Mendenhall would have the ability to start for the Packers on day one and add a much needed dimension to the Packers offense. Yes, Ryan Grant's improbable last several weeks has been impressive, but ultimately a bona fide superstar RB is what the Packers need, particularly if the Brett Favre era ends at the end of this season.
30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma *
The 49ers have been in a free-fall, in no small part because of the team's inability to throw the ball -- they're dead last in passing yards per game. The receiving corps is a mess, and it's time to look to the draft for help there.
Kelly, at 6'4", has the height to allow himself to gain separation from corners. And while it's true that the 49ers have a trio of 6'0" or taller receivers (Arnez Battle, Ashley Lelie, and Darrell Jackson) as well as the tall receiving threat of TE Vernon Davis, and there might be the temptation to go with a burner here, Kelly has the goods as far as having the ability to get open. Early Doucet, Andre Caldwell, and even a speedster like underrated Louisville WR Harry Douglas may get a look here, and if the 49ers like multiple guys (without one standing out as "the one" for them), they might look to trade down into round two to land who they want at a lower price.
31. Dallas Cowboys - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State *
**NOTE** While Indianapolis actually has a higher opponent win percentage than Dallas, two AFC teams cannot fill the final two spots since #31 goes to the Super Bowl runner-up and the #32 position goes to the Super Bowl champ. Just so you know that I know...
Flozell Adams is going to be an unrestricted free agent this year. And while pricy free agent OL Leonard Davis has played guard for the Cowboys after starting his career as a tackle, perhaps that's his best fit: note that Davis made the Pro Bowl this year. If Dallas is unable or unwilling to bring back Adams, a talent like Clady may be worth considering.
By the same token, if Felix Jones is on the board here, the Cowboys may opt to add him to fill the spot likely to be vacated by the departure of Julius Jones to free agency. Marion Barber, III is having a solid year, but the two RB offense has worked quite well for the Cowboys, and having it be a duo of Barber and Felix Jones makes them even more dangerous. With two picks late in round one, the Cowboys should have a number of options, and what they opt to do will be most fascinating to follow.
interesting Mock Draft