The Chiefs have an excellent chance at a top 5 pick!

[RedThat]

But, a few things have to happen. If we lose next week, Guaranteed we'd pick in the top 5 if not possibly number 4. But things could get better? good news is, if we lose, we pick ahead of the Jets because they beat us head-to-head, and they have a stronger SOS then we do.
If we lose, things will take of themselves. honestly. We don't have to worry about SF. And, even if the Raiders lose next week, we pick ahead of the Raiders! Because they'll have a stronger SOS then we do, I know were tied with them head-to-head, and the Chiefs and the Raiders also have the same divisional record, but Oakland has a better conference record! And here is even better news we don't have to worry about the Ravens. If we lose, Guaranteed we pick ahead of them! Because their opponents would have a total of 117 wins, and our opponents would have a total of 116 wins. Edge Chiefs! If Atlanta wins, and we lose, we'd pick ahead of them because there opponents have a total of 122 wins and ours at a 116 wins. Think about that! go Atlanta, they play Seattle next week. Now if the Rams win, and we lose, both team would have the same SOS. You know how the Tie breaker would be determined? through a coin toss.

*So, if we lose. guaranteed we'd get the #4 pick in the draft. And if Atl and Stl both win, guaranteed we'd pick #3, and if the coin toss goes our way, we'd pick #2. Could you imagine the Chiefs pick #2 overall? Glenn Dorsey....LOL

[dtebbe]

I just hope Carl is not in the "War Room" when we make the pick.

DT

[Rain Man]

This is Carl's greatest accomplishment since 1993.

[chiefbowe82]

as long as they let carl draft, considering he drafted LJ and TG

[RedThat]

Even if we do have Carl, and say we end up picking at #2, do you still think he can mess this up? With Hot prospects there for the picking? Dorsey? McFadden? Long?

[Chiefs Pantalones]

Didn't Carl say some time ago that if he ever drafted in the top 10 he wasn't doing his job and should go elsewhere? Well, he's drafted in the top 10 twice now in 10 years. Someone show him the door...

[doomy3]

as long as they let carl draft, considering he drafted LJ and TG


Hopefully my sarcasm meter is broken? :(

[Fly O.T. McWall]

do you think we could pick up a nice project with the no. 2 overall?

[chiefbowe82]

Hopefully my sarcasm meter is broken? :(

yes I was being sarcastic

[chiefbowe82]

do you think we could pick up a nice project with the no. 2 overall?

Robert Gallery caliber

[Rain Man]

Carl really knows how to get fans revved up about the team.

[HolmeZz]

yes I was being sarcastic

Was that sarcasm?

[Fly O.T. McWall]

do you think it wold be possible to spend our Round 1 pick retroacively and pick up ryan sims again?

[chiefbowe82]

Was that sarcasm?
no

[HolmeZz]

no

Was that?

[chiefbowe82]

Was that?
your what hurts?

[cdcox]

do you think it wold be possible to spend our Round 1 pick retroacively and pick up ryan sims again?

How about Ryan Leaf?

OMG, it's an omen. Has there ever been a top-10 draft choice "Ryan" that has panned out?

The anti-Matt Ryan bandwagon starts here.

[HolmeZz]

your what hurts?

What about my what hurts?

[chagrin]

do you think it wold be possible to spend our Round 1 pick retroacively and pick up ryan sims again?

He's picked up his game; I saw him make a single tackle last week for Tampa Bay

[bowener]

this is all very good news. can you explain it again though... what is our guaranteed lowest (best) pick?

[RedThat]

this is all very good news. can you explain it again though... what is our guaranteed lowest (best) pick?

If we lose, the worst we can pick is 4th.

[cdcox]

If we lose, the worst we can pick is 4th.

No, not correct. We could lose and pick as high as 6th.

[bowener]

No, not correct. We could lose and pick as high as 6th.

Ah ****! Dare I ask what happens if we win?

[Direckshun]

We need to get the math straight on this, people.

What's the worst possible draft pick we could end up with? Would a victory put us out of the top 10?

[cdcox]

Ah ****! Dare I ask what happens if we win?

No higher than 8th, at the very, very best, 5th.

[cdcox]

We need to get the math straight on this, people.

What's the worst possible draft pick we could end up with? Would a victory put us out of the top 10?

8th. Definitely no higher than 8th no matter what.

[smittysbar]

But, a few things have to happen. If we lose next week, Guaranteed we'd pick in the top 5 if not possibly number 4. But things could get better? good news is, if we lose, we pick ahead of the Jets because they beat us head-to-head, and they have a stronger SOS then we do.
If we lose, things will take of themselves. honestly. We don't have to worry about SF. And, even if the Raiders lose next week, we pick ahead of the Raiders! Because they'll have a stronger SOS then we do, I know were tied with them head-to-head, and the Chiefs and the Raiders also have the same divisional record, but Oakland has a better conference record! And here is even better news we don't have to worry about the Ravens. If we lose, Guaranteed we pick ahead of them! Because their opponents would have a total of 117 wins, and our opponents would have a total of 116 wins. Edge Chiefs! If Atlanta wins, and we lose, we'd pick ahead of them because there opponents have a total of 122 wins and ours at a 116 wins. Think about that! go Atlanta, they play Seattle next week. Now if the Rams win, and we lose, both team would have the same SOS. You know how the Tie breaker would be determined? through a coin toss.

*So, if we lose. guaranteed we'd get the #4 pick in the draft. And if Atl and Stl both win, guaranteed we'd pick #3, and if the coin toss goes our way, we'd pick #2. Could you imagine the Chiefs pick #2 overall? Glenn Dorsey....LOL

You do realize that opponents play next week too, so the opponent wins as you have them will change.

[bowener]

how do you bastards know this shit? I dont want to get my hopes up for a #2 overall to find our from rich eisen that I have been lied to!

[bowener]

You do realize that opponents play next week too, so the opponent wins as you have them will change.

you are correct! Also, your avatar looks like it has a dildo in it... just callin' it like i see it.

[smittysbar]

Maybe my av and your av can hook up????

[bowener]

hmm, or maybe hook down (she is upside down afterall).

[smittysbar]

true

[cdcox]

how do you bastards know this shit? I dont want to get my hopes up for a #2 overall to find our from rich eisen that I have been lied to!

I've been written software to figure this out. I've been doing the playoff side for something close to 10 years. The chances for a #2 pick are very, very remote, but greater than zero.

[bowener]

I've been written software to figure this out. I've been doing the playoff side for something close to 10 years. The chances for a #2 pick are very, very remote, but greater than zero.

Hey thats all i need to hear... I dont want the #2 overall though, we wold **** that up, too much pressure for sure. I think #3-5 will suit us fine.

[JohninGpt]

I've been written software to figure this out. I've been doing the playoff side for something close to 10 years. The chances for a #2 pick are very, very remote, but greater than zero.
Any slimmer than our chances for a playoff berth last year?

[RedThat]

No, not correct. We could lose and pick as high as 6th.

Prove me wrong. How so?

[RedThat]

You do realize that opponents play next week too, so the opponent wins as you have them will change.

Yeah I know. Im just saying if we lose, there is a great chance we get a top 4 pick.

[cdcox]

Any slimmer than our chances for a playoff berth last year?

A little better than that. That was an unbelievable long shot.

This year, to get the #2 we absolutely need:

KC to lose to the Jets
Atlanta to beat Seattle
St. Louis to beat Arizona

That gets us to about a 20% chance. Then it depends on the outcome of nearly every other game in the league to determine the strength of schedule advantages.

[RedThat]

Cdcox, Im still waiting for your response? LOL

there is no way this team can pick 6th if they lose next week. No way! They will pick no worse than 4th if they lose I assure you. Look, if the Jets win automatically they own the tie breaker. #1 they beat us head-to-head and have a stronger strength of schedule then we do. If we lose and the Raiders lose, we will be ahead of the Raiders. We OWN the tie-breaker with the Raiders if we lose. The worst that can happen is we tie with the Raiders in strength of schedule. Even that is probably unlikely. Say it is the case, our divisional records are the same? Head-to-head with them is split. BUT, they do have a better conference record then us? How can they pick ahead of us? Not possible if we lose. If the Ravens lose, and we lose, they'll end up with a stronger strength of schedule then us. Which gives us the tie breaker right there. We lose, we jump up 2 slots up automatically. The 4th pick will be staring at us.

*I don't know how we can pick 6th? If you can prove me wrong, go right ahead.

[HolmeZz]

There are so many different scenarios that can play out next week as far as SOS goes.

[cdcox]

Prove me wrong. How so?

To prove you wrong, I'll give you one scenario out of many where the Chiefs could draft 5th after losing to NY.

1. Miami has a 100% lock on the #1 position.
2. Atlanta and St. Louis both lose and end up with final records of 3-12. They take the 2 and 3 slots.
3. KC loses to NY Jets and finishes 4-12.
4. Oakland loses to SD and finishes 4-12.

The first tiebreaker on selection order is strength of schedule. KC and Oakland have identical schedules (and hence identical SOS) except the following:

a. Oakland: Cleveland and Miami (current combined record 10-20)
b. KC: Cincinnati and Jets (current combined record 9-21)

now if Cincinnati wins (counting the Jets beating KC) and Cleveland and Miami lose, the final difference in SOS would be 12-20 for KC and 11-21 for Oakland.

[Demonpenz]

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[cdcox]

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I piss on trees outside my house too. It's a territory thing, and I'm okay with that.

[Sure-Oz]

A little better than that. That was an unbelievable long shot.

This year, to get the #2 we absolutely need:

KC to lose to the Jets
Atlanta to beat Seattle
St. Louis to beat Arizona

That gets us to about a 20% chance. Then it depends on the outcome of nearly every other game in the league to determine the strength of schedule advantages.
Very possible, ATL has played better with their new current starter and STL can shoot it out with the best of them and ARZ tends to **** it up. Not counting on it but 2/3 will likely happen. Most likely we'll **** it up with a win knowing our luck :cuss:

[mylittlepony]

Why do we need a #2? If Dorsey goes there is no talent out there worthy of a #2 pick. I meen Chris Long is a Adam Carriker type DE with sub par speed. Jake Long is a projected RT. Matt Ryan has got some upside but at #2 you want a better descition maker then that. Sedrick Ellis has for sure not done enough to warrant him a #2 pick in the draft. The only reason the #2 pick would give us anything is if the Fins pass on Dorsey otherwise we would end up paying way to much for way to little.

[mylittlepony]

Oh I'm sorry McFadden is ofcourse not counted seeing as we cant tie up that much dineros in RB. He is a top 3 talent as well.

[Chiefs Pantalones]

lets say we have the number 3 pick...who do you draft?

[Pablo]

lets say we have the number 3 pick...who do you draft?BPA.

Dorsey or Jake Long if they're still around.

I wouldn't touch McFadden.

[RedThat]

To prove you wrong, I'll give you one scenario out of many where the Chiefs could draft 5th after losing to NY.

1. Miami has a 100% lock on the #1 position.
2. Atlanta and St. Louis both lose and end up with final records of 3-12. They take the 2 and 3 slots.
3. KC loses to NY Jets and finishes 4-12.
4. Oakland loses to SD and finishes 4-12.

The first tiebreaker on selection order is strength of schedule. KC and Oakland have identical schedules (and hence identical SOS) except the following:

a. Oakland: Cleveland and Miami (current combined record 10-20)
b. KC: Cincinnati and Jets (current combined record 9-21)

now if Cincinnati wins (counting the Jets beating KC) and Cleveland and Miami lose, the final difference in SOS would be 12-20 for KC and 11-21 for Oakland.

That doesn't matter. It goes by the total record of wins from your opponents. Oakland's opponents have 102 total wins as it stands now. KCs opponents on the other hand have a total of 98 wins. That alone, as of right now tells us we would have the advantage in regards to a weaker SOS.

Even if Cincy wins, and Cleveland and Miami lose, it won't make a difference.

[svuba]

Don't get your hopes up.
I think there is better than average chance the chiefs win the last game.

1. We played pretty well today
2. The Jets Suck
3. Herm will do anything to get this win
4. The jets Suck.
5. The Chiefs players are not quiting
6 The Jets Suck

[Chiefs Pantalones]

BPA.

Dorsey or Jake Long if they're still around.

I wouldn't touch McFadden.

What? Who's that on the phone? It's the Patriots. They want that spot because they think the team after us wants McFadden. What do you do?

I'd give them the pick for Brady. Oh yeah. They'd do it. lol ;)

[Pablo]

What? Who's that on the phone? It's the Patriots. They want that spot because they think the team after us wants McFadden. What do you do?

I'd give them the pick for Brady. Oh yeah. They'd do it. lol ;)I'd take the left side of their offensive line.

[RedThat]

What? Who's that on the phone? It's the Patriots. They want that spot because they think the team after us wants McFadden. What do you do?

I'd give them the pick for Brady. Oh yeah. They'd do it. lol ;)


What? Did you say fantasy football? kidding :p

[Tribal Warfare]

Why do we need a #2? If Dorsey goes there is no talent out there worthy of a #2 pick. I meen Chris Long is a Adam Carriker type DE with sub par speed. Jake Long is a projected RT. Matt Ryan has got some upside but at #2 you want a better descition maker then that. Sedrick Ellis has for sure not done enough to warrant him a #2 pick in the draft. The only reason the #2 pick would give us anything is if the Fins pass on Dorsey otherwise we would end up paying way to much for way to little.


BPA, and currently IMO in the #2 position it would either be McFadden or Oher( I think Dorsey is slightly overrated)

[mylittlepony]

What? Who's that on the phone? It's the Patriots. They want that spot because they think the team after us wants McFadden. What do you do?

I'd give them the pick for Brady. Oh yeah. They'd do it. lol ;)

Trade down EASY... I wont even let them finish the sentance. Hell I can trade down without any compensation. Having to pay the same level of Talent less amount of money sounds good to me. I wouldnt be picking McFadden anyway. However the Pats are sneeky and I dont trust them so we would have to get something in writing that with the #3 pick they had to take McFadden. If they would pick Chris Long for example I would be furious and the fans would be screaming for my head.

[cdcox]

That doesn't matter. It goes by the total record of wins from your opponents. Oakland's opponents have 102 total wins as it stands now. KCs opponents on the other hand have a total of 98 wins. That alone, as of right now tells us we would have the advantage in regards to a weaker SOS.

Even if Cincy wins, and Cleveland and Miami lose, it won't make a difference.

Oakland's opponents (assuming both Oakland and KC finish 4-12)

Denver 6 wins
Denver 6 wins
SD 10 wins (assuming victory of SD over Oakland)
SD 10 wins (assuming victory of SD over Oakland)
KC 4 wins
KC 4 wins
Indy 13 wins
Jax 11 wins
Titans 9 wins
Houston 7 wins
GB 12 wins
Min 8 wins
Det 7 wins
Chi 6 wins
Cle 9 wins
Miami 1 win
Total 123 wins with the Cle and Miami games being difference makers with KC


KC's Opponents
Denver 6 wins
Denver 6 wins
SD 10 wins (assuming victory over Oakland)
SD 10 wins (assuming victory over Oakland)
Oak 4 wins
Oak 4 wins
Indy 13 wins
Jax 11 wins
Titans 9 wins
Houston 7 wins
GB 12 wins
Min 8 wins
Det 7 wins
Chi 6 wins
Cin 6 wins
Jets 4 win (assuming win against KC)
Total 123 wins with only the Cincinatti game being a differnece maker compared to Oakland

[cdcox]

Even if that happens, we'd still get the tie breaker because they have a better conference record than us.

1. We are would be tied even before the Miami, Cleveland and Cinci games were played. So if Miami and Cleveland lost and Cinci won, Oakland would win the tiebreaker. Hence I have proven you wrong.

2. If we end up tied in SOS, it goes to the Division tiebreaker. In the division tie breaker we would lose out to Oakland because record against common opponents comes before conference record. Our record against common opponents is better because we beat the Vikes.

Redbull, I've spend many, many hours programming all of this and checking it against years and years of actual NFL results. You can't expect to look at a scenario for 20 minutes and comprehensively analyze it.

[RedThat]

Oakland's opponents (assuming both Oakland and KC finish 4-12)

Denver 6 wins
Denver 6 wins
SD 10 wins (assuming victory of SD over Oakland)
SD 10 wins (assuming victory of SD over Oakland)
KC 4 wins
KC 4 wins
Indy 13 wins
Jax 11 wins
Titans 9 wins
Houston 7 wins
GB 12 wins
Min 8 wins
Det 7 wins
Chi 6 wins
Cle 9 wins
Miami 1 win
Total 123 wins with the Cle and Miami games being difference makers with KC


KC's Opponents
Denver 6 wins
Denver 6 wins
SD 10 wins (assuming victory over Oakland)
SD 10 wins (assuming victory over Oakland)
Oak 4 wins
Oak 4 wins
Indy 13 wins
Jax 11 wins
Titans 9 wins
Houston 7 wins
GB 12 wins
Min 8 wins
Det 7 wins
Chi 6 wins
Cin 6 wins
Jets 4 win (assuming win against KC)
Total 123 wins with only the Cincinatti game being a differnece maker compared to Oakland

Yup, you're right. Thanks.

If Cinci wins, that would give the Chiefs total opp with 124 wins. If, Cleveland and Miami lose, that would give Oakland total opp with 123 wins.

So then we gotta hope Cleveland wins next week? And if they do, and we lose, we move up? Oh wait, then that means Cinci has to lose as well.

[cdcox]

Yup, you're right. Thanks.

If Cinci wins, that would give the Chiefs total opp with 124 wins. If, Cleveland and Miami lose, that would give Oakland total opp with 123 wins.

So then we gotta hope Cleveland wins next week? And if they do, and we lose, we move up? Oh wait, then that means Cinci has to lose as well.

With KC and Oakland tied, a Miami win over Cin next week would guarantee we would pick before Oakland. If Cin wins, I'm pretty sure Oakland drafts before us.

Then there are all kinds of scenarios with St. Louis and Atlanta if they win next week. Even some long shots where Baltimore or the Jets could draft before us (very unlikely).

[RedThat]

With KC and Oakland tied, a Miami win over Cin next week would guarantee we would pick before Oakland. If Cin wins, I'm pretty sure Oakland drafts before us.

Then there are all kinds of scenarios with St. Louis and Atlanta if they win next week. Even some long shots where Baltimore or the Jets could draft before us (very unlikely).

Lets say both Cincy and Cleveland win, that leaves both KC and Oak tied for SOS. Are you sure that Oakland would pick before us if that would happen?

I know it would by head to head first. Which both Oakland and KC split. Then it goes by division. Assuming both lose next week, both would have the same divisional record at 2-4. BUT, are you sure that record against common opponents comes first before conference record to determine the tiebreaker?

You may be right because NFL.com has Oakland ahead of us in the league overall standings. but this site says it goes by SOS, head-to-head, divisional record, or conference record. It doesn't mention record against common opponents.


just checking as a heads up. thankswww.ourlads.com/draftsequence.cfm (http://www.ourlads.com/draftsequence.cfm)

[ClevelandBronco]

If there's a single player or coach on the Chiefs who wants a better draft pick rather than a win I'd be very surprised.

I understand a fan's need to declare victory in the face of repeated defeats, but that's just not the way the NFL works.

You're assuming that the players who are already on the team are willing to give up and lose in an effort to prove that they aren't good enough to win without a slew of rookies and free agents to help them. No pro player with any sense of his own career interest would try to pull that maneuver.

Speculate about the top five pick if that's what you have left, but don't pretend that it's your best strategy.

Underperforming to the extent that the Chiefs have managed is nothing to cheer for, no matter what your supposed reward might be via the draft.

[RedThat]

If there's a single player or coach on the Chiefs who wants a better draft pick rather than a win I'd be very surprised.

I understand a fan's need to declare victory in the face of repeated defeats, but that's just not the way the NFL works.

You're assuming that the players who are already on the team are willing to give up and lose in an effort to prove that they aren't good enough to win without a slew of rookies and free agents to help them. No pro player with any sense of his own career interest would try to pull that maneuver.

Speculate about the top five pick if that's what you have left, but don't pretend that it's your best strategy.

Underperforming to the extent that the Chiefs have managed is nothing to cheer for, no matter what your supposed reward might be via the draft.

Oh I absolutely agree with what you're saying. Im sure the players, coaches, FO don't have that mind set where they want to lose to improve their draft status. This is all just from a fans perspective. Having a top pick doesn't guarantee anything? Give you a shot to pick the best talent in the draft, but even that is not a guarantee. And even if you do score a top talent, it doesn't mean your team is better?

Beleive me a lot of fans are pissed and not cheering. We want changes to happen in the FO, and even with the coaching staff. This season has been a mess. Were aware with a poorly ran FO and bad coaching you ain't gonna win in this league. But possibly getting a top pick in the draft, and hopeful that guy comes a good player is the most optimistic thing that can happen if your a Chiefs fan? It's all about hope, and getting to a good start somewhere at this point.

[ClevelandBronco]

Oh I absolutely agree with what you're saying. Im sure the players, coaches, FO don't have that mind set where they want to lose to improve their draft status. This is all just from a fans perspective. Having a top pick doesn't guarantee anything? Give you a shot to pick the best talent in the draft, but even that is not a guarantee. And even if you do score a top talent, it doesn't mean your team is better?

Beleive me a lot of fans are pissed and not cheering. We want changes to happen in the FO, and even with the coaching staff. This season has been a mess. Were aware with a poorly ran FO and bad coaching you ain't gonna win in this league. But possibly getting a top pick in the draft, and hopeful that guy comes a good player is the most optimistic thing that can happen if your a Chiefs fan? It's all about hope, and getting to a good start somewhere at this point.

Good answer, and for the record, I'm not claiming that my favorite team is in a much better position. It's not. There are holes all over the Broncos' team.

I'm just dissappointed that the Broncos/Chiefs/Raiders rivalry has sunk to this level. None of those three teams looks like they are anywhere near breaking out from the pack.

[BigRock]

If there's a single player or coach on the Chiefs who wants a better draft pick rather than a win I'd be very surprised.
Watching the end of the game today and seeing the way Brodie and Jared Allen and various other players were standing on the edge of the sideline, practically grinding their teeth into dust as they tried to will the offense down the field, I felt like a total dick for hoping Huard would blow it so we'd lose to get the higher pick.

Those guys wanted it bad.

Though picturing them all giving Samie Parker a Full Metal Jacket soap-towel beating in the locker room did make me feel a little better.

[Phobia]

Prove me wrong. How so?
Seedy is the expert. You should read whatever he posts and take it as gospel.

[BigRedChief]

Doesn't matter if everyone in front of us loses and we win we will pick at the worse #8.

With King Carl doing the picking I don't see us greatly benefiting with the #5 pick instead of #8.