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Hammock Parties
01-09-2008, 10:03 PM
Throw To Win

http://kan.scout.com/2/718556.html

If there’s one lesson we can learn from the first round of the NFL playoffs, it’s this – in today’s league, the teams that throw the football effectively will win more often than not.

In Seattle, despite the fact Shaun Alexander was bottled up by Washington’s defense, Matt Hasselbeck’s efficient passing led the Seahawks to a win. The Redskins, meanwhile, also failed to run the football, but could not get Todd Collins on track, as the journeyman passer threw 50 times but amassed only 266 yards.

In Tampa Bay, the normally efficient Jeff Garcia looked lost when Joey Galloway left the contest. The Buccaneers offense could not move the ball on the ground, either, fell out of their element and eventually fell behind, 24-7. Game over, thanks in part to Eli Manning's mistake-free game.

Out West, the Titans stuffed LaDainian Tomlinson, as expected, but the Chargers were ready. Throwing early and often, Philip Rivers eventually found his rhythm and racked up 292 yards through the air, leading to San Diego’s first playoff win since 1995. Tennessee wound up losing because Vince Young is clearly not a playoff-ready quarterback.

Man, you hope Herm Edwards was watching.

In his search for a new offensive coordinator, one thing is becoming clear – Edwards wants his running game back. You can’t blame him after watching the Chiefs struggle to average three yards a carry in most games this year.

The rumored interest in coaches like Jeremy Bates, Chan Gailey and Alex Gibbs (now hired by the Texans) speaks volumes. Gibbs and Bates clearly have roots in Denver’s zone-blocking system. Gailey’s history as an offensive coordinator doesn’t include fantastic passing games, but rather steady ground attacks. This is a man who coaxed career-best seasons out of Jerome Bettis (the Bus racked up over 3,000 yards in two years under Gailey) and somehow squeezed almost 1,200 yards out of no-name running back Lamar Smith in 2000 (Smith's only 1,000 yard season).

At Georgia Tech, Gailey’s offenses featured a successful run-first attack pretty much every year, and during Gailey's short stint as Dallas Cowboys head coach, Emmitt Smith ran for more yards than any other two-year stretch during his final nine seasons.

The one exception to all of this is Eric Price, the coordinator who directed UTEP’s wide-open air attack the last few years. As an ex-wide receivers coach, Price's roots are deep in the passing game.

I won’t pretend to know who the right man is to lead KC’s offense next year. But you just hope the Chiefs bring in someone who’s got some credentials where throwing the football is concerned. Last year, they had no one on the coaching staff who measured up outside Charlie Joiner, and he’s gone. Terry Shea obviously isn’t coming back. Is help on the way?

The Chiefs need it. Brodie Croyle averaged only 171 yards passing per start last season (minus the Detroit game, in which he left early), and his yards per attempt was embarrassingly low – just 5.5, easily the worst mark in the league. Dwayne Bowe had a good year, but wasn’t involved enough. The message is clear – KC’s passing game is busted. The team needs a guru to fix it.

The Chiefs ought to take a hint from Norv Turner next year and put the weight of the offense on Croyle. Turner was widely criticized at times this season for running the “LT Lite” offense – Tomlinson took only 315 carries in 2007, his lowest total in five years. But it worked out. It prepared Rivers for Sunday’s playoff game, where he was forced to carry the team to victory.

Such forward thinking has been rare on KC’s coaching staff. No one has forgotten last year’s playoff game, in which the Chiefs appeared to have no Plan B when it became evident Larry Johnson would find no running room.

Do you get the point? The Chiefs need a guru. You hope they hire the right man – a modernized, sharp offensive mind who’ll stand on his own two legs. Someone to bring Kansas City’s offense into the 21st century.

That brings us back to last weekend’s Wild Card playoffs. The only team that managed to win without a successful passing attack was Jacksonville. It’s worth noting the Pittsburgh Steelers clawed their way back from a 28-10 deficit on the strength of Big Ben’s arm, but why did the Jaguars really win? They capitalized on four turnovers.

Now, you know Herm would love to win that way (and at this point the Chiefs as an organization would probably take a playoff win in any form), but it doesn’t always work. We’ll see how much success the Jaguars find this week against the New England Patriots – a team with a great passing attack. Hopefully the 2008 Chiefs offense shares some similarities.

L.A. Chieffan
01-09-2008, 10:06 PM
Oh yeah we're gonna open it up next year for sure. Mike Martz is gonna shit his pants when he sees our Air attack. I give this article full credit

Rasputin
01-09-2008, 10:19 PM
Still need an O-line so that the WRs can get down field and Brodie have time to throw. I think that is the secret to the Pats success is the O-line. They give Brady ample time in the pocket and Moss gets down field and makes big plays. With our O-line Brady would not have such time to sit pretty and throw deep.

Good article though for Goatse. Can we get the right guy to be Cordinator? Can we have a better O-line next year?

Mecca
01-09-2008, 10:40 PM
It's not gonna matter, Herm wants to run offense like it's 1965 during his playing career. The league isn't like that anymore, it's a pass first league, all the rules changes have dictated it becoming that way.

jjchieffan
01-09-2008, 10:41 PM
Why dont you post the article that is up over there telling about some "other" OC candidate that nobody but Nick knows about? Oh wait. I forgot. That "inside" info is reserved for those gullible enough to pay WPI for it. Silly me. :ROFL:

Hammock Parties
01-09-2008, 10:43 PM
Why dont you post the article that is up over there telling about some "other" OC candidate that nobody but Nick knows about? Oh wait. I forgot. That "inside" info is reserved for those gullible enough to pay WPI for it. Silly me. :ROFL:

The "gullible" people knew about Eric Price a good month ago.

jjchieffan
01-09-2008, 10:48 PM
The "gullible" people knew about Eric Price a good month ago.

He hasn't even been interviewed. How is that credible info?

Zouk
01-09-2008, 10:50 PM
It's not gonna matter, Herm wants to run offense like it's 1965 during his playing career. The league isn't like that anymore, it's a pass first league, all the rules changes have dictated it becoming that way.

I can't find these supposed rule changes. The last rule change related to the passing game was in 1996.

http://www.steelersfever.com/nfl_history_of_rules.html

Hammock Parties
01-09-2008, 10:56 PM
He hasn't even been interviewed. How is that credible info?

He's definitely been interviewed.

Hammock Parties
01-09-2008, 10:56 PM
I can't find these supposed rule changes. The last rule change related to the passing game was in 1996.

http://www.steelersfever.com/nfl_history_of_rules.html

They changed the rules in 2004 when everyone's stats exploded.

Zouk
01-09-2008, 11:11 PM
They changed the rules in 2004 when everyone's stats exploded.

Here's the number of teams that passed for over 3500 yards in a season:

2007 - 13
2006 - 10
2005 - 11
2004 - 13
2003 - 7
2002 - 12
2001 - 11
2000 - 11
1999 - 11

It's all been pretty stable for the last 9 years. The big jump up took place in 1994. Prior to that there were only 4-6 teams passing for over 3500 yards in a season.

People have been trying to bury the running game since the run n shoot started but the facts don't back it up. Turnover margin is still the best predictor of victory in the NFL.

Hammock Parties
01-09-2008, 11:14 PM
2004 was indeed an explosive year though. Scrubs like Plummer were putting up 4,000 yard years. Trent Green threw for a career high 4,500. Total pieces of crap like Delhomme and freakin' Aaron Brooks hit 3,800.

irishjayhawk
01-09-2008, 11:24 PM
It switched to a pass heavy league when the league neutred D-backs with all the pathetic rules.

Zouk
01-09-2008, 11:30 PM
More fun stats - regular season passing yard rankings of Super Bowl teams since 2000:

2006 - Indy #2, Chicago #14
2005 - Pittsburgh #24, Seattle #13
2004 - NE #11, Philly #7
2003 - NE #9, Carolina #18
2002 - Oak #1, TB #15
2001 - NE #22, StL #1
2000 - Balt #22, NYG #13

That's a lot of mediocre to poor passing teams making the Super Bowl. There are not nearly as many mediocre to poor rushing or defensive teams making the Super Bowl.

Hammock Parties
01-09-2008, 11:36 PM
You're looking at the wrong stat, Zouk. Yards per attempt is more important than total yards.

2006 - Indy #4, Chicago #18
2005 - Pittsburgh #1, Seattle #6
2004 - New England #8, Philly #9
2003 - New England #9, Carolina #18
2002 - Oakland #2, Tampa Bay #21
2001 - New England # 13, St. Louis #1

And besides, past history is quickly becoming irrelevant. It's a new league. The Colts, Patriots and Cowboys are the best teams in the league this year. Find a common denominator. Seven of the top 10 teams in YPA went to the playoffs this year.

Mecca
01-09-2008, 11:48 PM
All of the best teams in the league now, save what Jacksonville, are passing teams. Jacksonville is the only "throw back" team and does anyone really think they'll beat the Pats and Colts?

The whole play defense and run the ball stuff is out the window. Now it's throw the ball around put up some points, run it to change the pace and play good enough defense.

kcxiv
01-09-2008, 11:53 PM
Yep, you gotta be able to throw. I remember Herm saying once your up by 14 points its time to run the clock out? i was like are you ****ing serious? 14 points is not alot of points to be ahead by in the NFL. I about lost it when he said that shit on Carl's radio show.

We will never be a dominating team as long as he's here. You gotta have that Brady mentality wanting to blow out every team you face.

Mecca
01-09-2008, 11:55 PM
Yep, you gotta be able to throw. I remember Herm saying once your up by 14 points its time to run the clock out? i was like are you ****ing serious? 14 points is not alot of points to be ahead by in the NFL. I about lost it when he said that shit on Carl's radio show.

We will never be a dominating team as long as he's here. You gotta have that Brady mentality wanting to blow out every team you face.

That worked for the Giants against the Pats huh they were up by what 13 in the 4th and lost.

ClevelandBronco
01-09-2008, 11:58 PM
Yards per attempt is more important than total yards.

Damn. You finally said something that's true.

Zouk
01-10-2008, 09:47 AM
And besides, past history is quickly becoming irrelevant. It's a new league. The Colts, Patriots and Cowboys are the best teams in the league this year. Find a common denominator. Seven of the top 10 teams in YPA went to the playoffs this year.

This is what I disagree with. Looking at one year in isolation is not nearly as instructive as looking at the last 10 years. No rules were changed this year.

I agree you need to be able to throw the ball. I would be happy if the Chiefs drafted DeSean Jackson in the top 10 to improve their big play capacity on offense and special teams. But you certainly don't need to pass any more than you need to be able to run the ball or play defense or special teams. The fact remains that those teams that:

1) don't have a top 5 QB
and 2) don't play in a dome

are most likely to get to the Super Bowl with defense and special teams. This is demonstrated by the Bears, Panthers, Bucs, Ravens, Steelers, etc. People say they want to be New England or Indy, but getting a Manning or Brady is a wish and not a plan. And play calling as if you do have a Manning or Brady when you don't is a fast track to Detroit Lions-ville.

Hammock Parties
01-10-2008, 10:32 AM
And play calling as if you do have a Manning or Brady when you don't is a fast track to Detroit Lions-ville.

That's garbage. There's more than two good quarterbacks in the league this year.

beach tribe
01-10-2008, 10:43 AM
2004 was indeed an explosive year though. Scrubs like Plummer were putting up 4,000 yard years. Trent Green threw for a career high 4,500. Total pieces of crap like Delhomme and freakin' Aaron Brooks hit 3,800.
And our D was the worst of all that season.

Zouk
01-10-2008, 10:44 AM
That's garbage. There's more than two good quarterbacks in the league this year.

I only cited Manning and Brady to deal with the argument of I'd rather be the Colts or Pats than the all those teams I mentioned that made the Super Bowl the other way over the last 10 years. If you have to choose, you always want to get a franchise QB, but that is much easier said than done.

I think there are only 4-6 QBs this year that you can take on the road in a big game against a good defense and put the game on their shoulders.

FringeNC
01-10-2008, 10:55 AM
Turnover margin is still the best predictor of victory in the NFL.

Fumbles are "luck", so take those out of the equation.

What winning in the NFL is about is being able to throw the ball without throwing interceptions. If you never throw the ball, you'll have a great TO margin, but you won't win any games. And any team can pass for 300 yards if they are down 28-0 because of four interceptions.

We know who the best teams in the league are -- they are the teams that can move the ball through the air without resorting to throwing it up for grabs.

Rausch
01-10-2008, 10:56 AM
Well written but I don't agree.

The mindset doesn't have to be that of a pass oriented team. We do need a QB that can be effective when the time comes to carry the team though.

Another bit of info to include is that every team that won has a pretty good offensive line as well...

FloridaMan88
01-10-2008, 11:15 AM
This is what I've been harping about for a while now

Chiefnj2
01-10-2008, 11:21 AM
If all you need to do is throw the ball then the Lions,Saints, Cards and Bengals would all be playoff teams.

smittysbar
01-10-2008, 11:38 AM
It's not all you have to do, but looking at some of these teams that have figured it out, it seems to be working very well.

Pass first, when they drop back to defend, remind them that they will run also. I mean hell, look at some of these teams. Very dominate, to say the least. But it all starts with the Line, and that is regardless if you are to run 1st or pass 1st. Build the line, you will have a good offense.

Zouk
01-10-2008, 11:42 AM
Fumbles are "luck", so take those out of the equation.


Being able to throw a lot without turning it over is definitely a magic bullet - if you can do that you will be a very good team. Only a team with an excellent QB and excellent pass protecting line can do this.

I disagree with you about fumbles. Jared Allen, for example, is exceptional at causing fumbles. Teams that throw a lot expose themselves to great pass rushers who cause a lot of fumbles. The Chiefs QBs fumbled on many known passing downs last year.

FringeNC
01-10-2008, 12:55 PM
Being able to throw a lot without turning it over is definitely a magic bullet - if you can do that you will be a very good team. Only a team with an excellent QB and excellent pass protecting line can do this.

I disagree with you about fumbles. Jared Allen, for example, is exceptional at causing fumbles. Teams that throw a lot expose themselves to great pass rushers who cause a lot of fumbles. The Chiefs QBs fumbled on many known passing downs last year.

That stats geeks claim that the year-to-year variance in number of fumbles and recovery percentage is quite large, whereas the number of passes a D intercepts and the number of interception the team's qbs throw doesn't show nearly the variability.

I agree that you need a good QB and a good O-line to have a strong passing attack. Where we disagree is the relative importance of coaching in getting to that point. Look at Elway stats with Reeves, then look at Elways' stats under Philips and Shanahan. It appears to be a different QB. Coaching and schemes matter. I don't think it's coincidence that the Cowboys' O-line coach and OC are the two hottest coaching names.

Calcountry
01-10-2008, 02:07 PM
If there is one thing we can learn from the first round of the playoffs, is that 4 teams were one and done.