Draft Daddy Mock Draft

[ImmodiumAD]

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01. Miami Dolphins - QB Matt Ryan, Boston College

Parcells needs a new QB very badly and Matt Ryan is the best of the crop.
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02. St. Louis Rams - DT Glenn Dorsey, Louisiana State

Taking Dorsey allows Carriker to move outside and strengthens the defensive front at two positions.
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03.*Oakland Raiders - RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas

Al Davis loves gamebreaking speed and McFadden should workout very well.
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04.*Atlanta Falcons - QB Brian Brohm, Louisville

Patrino may have departed but the Falcons still have to start over at the QB position.
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05.* Kansas City Chiefs - OT Jake Long, Michigan

The Chiefs offensive line is in shambles, never really replacing left tackle Willie Roaf.
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06. New York Jets - DE Chris Long, Virginia

Long is a great player but being a labeled a "tweener" could push him out of the top 5.
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07. New England Patriots - LB Dan Connor, Penn State

The Patriots have a desperate need at inside linebacker, Connor is low risk and high character.
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08. Baltimore Ravens - DE Derrick Harvey, Florida

The Ravens will likely need a pass rusher to replace Suggs, Harvey is underrated now, but just wait.
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09. Cincinnati Bengals - DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State

Justin Smith likely will leave in free agency and the Bengals would love to tab this edge rusher to replace him.
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10. New Orleans Saints - DT Sedrick Ellis, Southern California

The Saints need to get stouter up front and Ellis fits their scheme well.
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11. Buffalo Bills, S Kenny Phillips, Miami

The Bills defensive backfield lacks a true playmaker, Phillips is the answer.
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12. Denver Broncos - OT Ryan Clady, Boise State

The Broncos don't like to draft OL high but with Lepsis retiring, Cutler's blind side needs protection.
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13. Carolina Panthers - OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh

The Panthers will need to replace either one or both tackle positions, Otah is rising up boards.
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14. Chicago Bears - QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky

A trade for a veteran is possible but if the QB position isn't addressed pre-draft, the Bears need Woodson.
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15. Detroit Lions - CB Aqib Talib, Kansas

The Lions secondary is constantly undermanned, Talib is raw but a legitimate playmaker.
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16. Arizona Cardinals - RB Felix Jones, Arkansas

The Cardinals most glaring need is a franchise caliber running back to replace Edge.
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17. Minnesota Vikings - CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida

The Vikings need a quality player to line up across from Winfield. Another CB allows Griffin to move to safety.
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18. Houston Texans - DE Calais Campbell, Miami

Another first round defensive lineman? Yes. Houston places high priority on rushing the passer.
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19. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Desean Jackson, California

The Eagles' biggest need is a legitimate return man, Jackson can do that and be a deep threat on offense.
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20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Mario Manningham, Michigan

Hilliard and Galloway are ancient, Clayton dissapeared, Gruden needs a new target for his offense.
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21. Washington Redskins - DE Phillip Merling, Clemson

The Redskins need to upgrade their defensive end position, Merling is a probable workout warrior.
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22. Dallas Cowboys (VIA Cle) - RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois

Julius Jones is a free agent and Marion Barber is not a full time running back. Mendenhall is a game-breaker.
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23. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt

Williams projects to both tackle spots and the Steelers need help everywhere along the line.
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24. Tennessee Titans - WR Limas Sweed, Texas

Vince Young needs more targets and he loves to feed other Longhorns (see Bo Scaife).
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25. Seattle Seahawks - RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon

The Seahawks need to reload at running back and Stewart is practically in their backyard.
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XX. New York Giants - CB Antoine Cason, Arizona

The Giants have a fierce pass rush that covers up their cornerback woes.
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27. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State

Behind Rashean Mathis, who will need a new deal soon, there's not much at cornerback for the Jags.
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XX. San Diego Chargers - OT Sam Baker, Southern California

Olivea was benched mid- year and is a concern, Baker can upgrade the right tackle position and backup at left.
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29. Dallas Cowboys - OT Gosder Cherlius, Boston College

The Cowboys line needs to do a better job at LG, RT - Cherlius projects better at these spots than at left tackle.
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30. San Francisco 49ers (VIA Ind) - LB Keith Rivers, Southern California

Rivers talent too much to pass up, Nolan tends to take Senior Bowlers who perform.
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XX. Green Bay Packers - CB Dejuan Tribble, Boston College

The Packers need cornerback depth and to plan for the future. Before the injury, Tribble was playing lock down.
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XX. New England Patriots - Pick Forfeited

Violation of league rules.
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Link (http://www.draftdaddy.com/MD/MDstat.cfm)

[suds79]

I think the draft is really down to this.

If Jake Long is there, I see Herm drafting him. I think it's a slam dunk in his eyes.

If he isn't I think the Chiefs to try to trade down and pick a Tackle since it's quite a drop off from there.

But.... if Jake Long is gone and the Chiefs have the chance to take the 1st QB in the daft, I don't see how you cannot do that.

[DaKCMan AP]

They aldready have a good, young back in Michael Bush.

You can't count on a guy who hasn't played a down in almost 2 years as "a good, young back". Whether he can even get back to some of what he was is questionable.

[RJ]

"07. New England Patriots - LB Dan Connor, Penn State

The Patriots have a desperate need at inside linebacker, Connor is low risk and high character."





It's sort of funny to see the words "desperate need" and "Patriots" in the same sentence.

[Micjones]

Jake Long is the pick for Kansas City in 75% of the mock drafts I've seen.

Can it be all so simple?

Draft him Herm!!!

[Rain Man]

Jake Long is the pick for Kansas City in 75% of the mock drafts I've seen.

Can it be all so simple?

Draft him Herm!!!

If anyone can slice his jugular with Occam's razor, it would be Herm and Carl.

[Mr. Laz]

i would be surprised if the Dolphins go QB with the 1st pick.

you know parcells is probably looking to trade down

[Direckshun]

boo

[Mecca]

Jake Long is the pick for Kansas City in 75% of the mock drafts I've seen.

Can it be all so simple?

Draft him Herm!!!

And he'll be an alright player that we all bitch about not being worth his pick in a few years.

I also think it's funny everyone bitches there aren't any good QB prospects this year yet are 2 going top 5 in this one, they go top 10 in every mock and Woodson goes in the top 15...

Just wait, if/when Croyle doesn't work out next year is a far worse year for QB's..what a great spot to be in.

[Mecca]

I could careless if we are a run first team with a moronic head coach. You don't win shit without a QB in this league.

[RJ]

Which is easier to acquire through the draft in later rounds, a Pro Bowl caliber QB or a Pro Bowl caliber LT?

You are both correct, the question is merely which need should be addresed first.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Or a defensive line, for that matter.

Bottom line: This team can't, and isn't going to be rebuilt in 1 year.

Taking the BPA will only help us in the long run.

If the draft were tomorrow, I'd bet we'd pick either Jake Long, and if he were gone, Sedrick Ellis.

[Mecca]

Which is easier to acquire through the draft in later rounds, a Pro Bowl caliber QB or a Pro Bowl caliber LT?

You are both correct, the question is merely which need should be addresed first.

None of the teams playing right now have a 1st round LT...actually most of the teams that made the playoffs didn't have 1st round LT's....

Most of them however have first round QB's.

I think you get far better value taking a QB first and an LT second especially in a year like this.

[stonedstooge]

They haven't done the coin flips yet have they? So we still have the opportunity to be in the 4th postion right?

[The Bad Guy]

Quick, name the LTs that are in the championship games right now.

There isn't one household name. You can win there with a solid guy who doesn't make mistakes.

This team needs a franchise QB. Matt Ryan would be just fine with me.

[Mecca]

Uh Matt Lepsis is on the Broncos so how is he playing...Good job proving the point bad guy was making though.

[suds79]

In general, Olineman arent known or heard of unless they are screwing up.

Aint that the truth.

I think it's safe to say that a great team has both a great QB and LT.

Unfortunately, we have neither.

If both Ryan & Long are there, then let the debate begin.

But I'd be very, very happy for us to land either guy.

Make no mistake though. No position is nearly as important as QB. Furthermore, when you think about it, it's a numbers game.

If they draft Ryan and he turns out to be great, then it's just a matter of time before we get the rest of the team right.

If they daft Ryan and Croyle turns it on, then you have trade bate next year.

Now Ryan could be a bust and Croyle could be a flop but no matter who the Chiefs draft, they can't afford to miss.

[Mecca]

mat lepsis, mat light...close enough.

hey, i could've cheated and looked it up off the internet, but went with what i can remember. I dont follow football teams other than the chiefs.

People doing that tends to jade them to how good the Chiefs players are in relation to the rest of their position in the league....sometimes when I read some opinions around here I think "does this person only watch the Chiefs?"

Either way in todays game it's about the QB, you get that QB the rest of the team changes around him but he's the guy. I'd have a lot more respect for the Chiefs if they would at least try to find that guy instead of "playing it safe".

You have to be willing to risk being maybe the worst team in the league to truly be great. It takes risks to get there, the risk of taking a QB that high, and seeing if he has it. It could set you back a couple years if it doesn't work out but you have to be willing to take that risk.

If you won't take those risks and always play it safe, you'll be what the Chiefs have been the majority of Carl's time here.

[jjchieffan]

None of the teams playing right now have a 1st round LT...actually most of the teams that made the playoffs didn't have 1st round LT's....

Most of them however have first round QB's.

I think you get far better value taking a QB first and an LT second especially in a year like this.

Historically speaking, offensive linemen picked high have done well, whereas QB's picked high have been busts more often that studs. I think our team has too many needs to take a chance of wasting our first pick again this year. Yes, QB is the "sexy" pick. I would love to see us get a franchise QB, but if he is a bust, how far does that pick set us back. Besides unlike mr. negativity, aka Mecca, I think we haven't seen enough of Croyle to give up on him yet.

[Mecca]

How many QB's that have won or even made the Superbowl have been 1st round picks...

Before you look it up and count out the ridiculous number..it's about 75% as a rough estimation.

It's absolutely risky but the risk/reward is there. Sure lineman is safer and it's nice to have a franchise lineman but they still don't have the impact a QB does.

[jjchieffan]

People doing that tends to jade them to how good the Chiefs players are in relation to the rest of their position in the league....sometimes when I read some opinions around here I think "does this person only watch the Chiefs?"

Either way in todays game it's about the QB, you get that QB the rest of the team changes around him but he's the guy. I'd have a lot more respect for the Chiefs if they would at least try to find that guy instead of "playing it safe".

You have to be willing to risk being maybe the worst team in the league to truly be great. It takes risks to get there, the risk of taking a QB that high, and seeing if he has it. It could set you back a couple years if it doesn't work out but you have to be willing to take that risk.

If you won't take those risks and always play it safe, you'll be what the Chiefs have been the majority of Carl's time here.

Herm doesn't think any of the QB's available are franchise QB's. If he is right, then it would be crazy to blow our first pick on one. We are more lkely to get a Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler than a Peyton Manning. That would do nothing for our team. Also, David Carr was ruined behind a terrible line. I don't want to ruin a good QB because he is constantly on his back.

[jjchieffan]

How many QB's that have won or even made the Superbowl have been 1st round picks...

Before you look it up and count out the ridiculous number..it's about 75% as a rough estimation.

It's absolutely risky but the risk/reward is there. Sure lineman is safer and it's nice to have a franchise lineman but they still don't have the impact a QB does.

I don't know the numbers, but I am sure that a kot more top 5 QB's have taken their team down for years than have taken them to the SB.

[Mecca]

Well see..Herms kinda dumb, so I don't really view that as any sort of signal.

I also after drafting a QB wouldn't play him this year..drafting a QB also doesn't mean you don't get any lineman. It's a deep Tackle year, even if we took a QB first we could still get 2 OL starters.

And for the "top 5 picks aren't suppose to be risks" any time you take a QB top 5 it's more of a risk than most any other position. The Chiefs probably wouldn't have taken JaMarcus Russell last year despite him being the #1 QB and worthy of that pick if they were in that spot...cause they play it safe.

[Mecca]

I don't know the numbers, but I am sure that a kot more top 5 QB's have taken their team down for years than have taken them to the SB.

For example do you know who the last 3rd round QB that was successful was....this will be good if you know this.

[nomad]

And he'll be an alright player that we all bitch about not being worth his pick in a few years.

I also think it's funny everyone bitches there aren't any good QB prospects this year yet are 2 going top 5 in this one, they go top 10 in every mock and Woodson goes in the top 15...

Just wait, if/when Croyle doesn't work out next year is a far worse year for QB's..what a great spot to be in.


Looking at this team and looking at how the draft projects.... if Long can step in and be a top 5 RT, that works for me.

There's no top 5 CB, there is no top 5 OLB, DT Dorsey will be gone, were stuck with LJ at RB,there is no slam dunk QB....

You're bitchin' about something that just isn't there, for this pick, in this draft.

Now if Long isn't there at 5 you have a worse scenario than if he is because I'm tired of drafting DT's and your USC guy Ellis is less important to the Chiefs future that Long would be IMO.

I would be happy to go QB in RD 2 or 3, but get Long now.

Whats the difference between Ryan or Croyle getting killed behind this line??

[Mecca]

Looking at this team and looking at how the draft projects.... if Long can step in and be a top 5 RT, that works for me.

There's no top 5 CB, there is no top 5 OLB, DT Dorsey will be gone, were stuck with LJ at RB,there is no slam dunk QB....

You're bitchin' about something that just isn't there, for this pick, in this draft.

Now if Long isn't there at 5 you have a worse scenario than if he is because I'm tired of drafting DT's and your USC guy Ellis is less important to the Chiefs future that Long would be IMO.

I would be happy to go QB in RD 2 or 3, but get Long.

If you think Long is a Right Tackle and you take him in the first round especially in the top 5 that's pretty dense....

I disagree with you about QB's do some studies of the guys in future years...the classes of QB's are not going to get better actually next years will be worse and the one after may be also.

[patteeu]

How many QB's that have won or even made the Superbowl have been 1st round picks...

Before you look it up and count out the ridiculous number..it's about 75% as a rough estimation.

It's absolutely risky but the risk/reward is there. Sure lineman is safer and it's nice to have a franchise lineman but they still don't have the impact a QB does.

I bet it's substantially lower than 75%.

Edit: I could be wrong about this now that I think about it given that "1st round picks" covers a lot of territory beyond the premium 1st round spot that the Chiefs have in this year's draft. Either way, I'm looking into the answer.

[Mecca]

I bet it's substantially lower than 75%.

Actually it's not......it's a ridiculous number that you don't realize till you actually look it up.

[nomad]

If you think Long is a Right Tackle and you take him in the first round especially in the top 5 that's pretty dense....

I disagree with you about QB's do some studies of the guys in future years...the classes of QB's are not going to get better actually next years will be worse and the one after may be also.

Was Ryan a top prospect 2 years ago?

Is Ryan a franchise QB now?

[Mecca]

Actually 2 years ago he was just getting his chance....he was a top 10 pick last year if he came out...and is again this year...

Ryan has a much better chance of being that guy than anyone in next years class I'll go that far.

[jjchieffan]

Favre was a second round pick, Montana was a 3rd, Brady a 6th, Warner undrafted, Brad Johnson round 9, Rypien round 6. That is six SB champs plus Montana had4, Brady has 3, probably 4 after this year, and I only went back 25 years. looks to me like you have just as good of a chance winning a championship with a later round pick. It certainly isn't 75%. You pulled that one out of your ass Mecca.

[nomad]

Actually 2 years ago he was just getting his chance....he was a top 10 pick last year if he came out...and is again this year...

Ryan has a much better chance of being that guy than anyone in next years class I'll go that far.

And Brohm would have been top 5 last year...

No team under Herm is going to be a passing team.

No line, no running game, no time to pass, no success.

The difference between Croyle and Ryan might just be the quality of line they played behind last year.

Fix the line and see how much it helps the run/pass.

Get another QB and watch him get hit and our RB's get stuffed at the LOS..

[Mecca]

And Brohm would have been top 3 last year...

No team under Herm is going to be a passing team.

No line, no running game, no time to pass, no success.

The difference between Croyle and Ryan might just be the quality of line they played behind last year.

Fix the line and see how much it helps the run/pass.

Get another QB and watch him get hit and our RB's get stuffed at the LOS..

Actually there are a good number of people that believe Ryan would have gone ahead of Brohm had they both come out....

Neither would have gone ahead of Russell though.

[Mecca]

Favre was a second round pick, Montana was a 3rd, Brady a 6th, Warner undrafted, Brad Johnson round 9, Rypien round 6. That is six SB champs plus Montana had4, Brady has 3, probably 4 after this year, and I only went back 25 years. looks to me like you have just as good of a chance winning a championship with a later round pick. It certainly isn't 75%. You pulled that one out of your ass Mecca.

Actually it's not a number I made up...the Packers gave up a 1st to get Favre so that one is kind of iffy but here look at this..

For every Brady, there's Troy Aikman, for every Montana there's John Elway for guys like Warner there's Jim Kelly...hell people forget guys like Trent Dilfer and Rex Grossman were 1st round picks.

Are there guys that make/win bowls that weren't first round picks, sure, it's just more difficult to find one of those guys and it's much more of a long shot.

[jjchieffan]

For example do you know who the last 3rd round QB that was successful was....this will be good if you know this.

I assume you are referring to Montana? duuhhh. What's your point? The best QB in the game today was a 6th round pick, and has more rings than #1 overall pick, golden boy Manning, as well as first round picks Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and even John Elway.

[Mecca]

I assume you are referring to Montana? duuhhh. What's your point? The best QB in the game today was a 6th round pick, and has more rings than #1 overall pick, golden boy Manning, as well as first round picks Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and even John Elway.

Sure and he's an exception, you're much more likely to do it the way the Colts have.

Tom Brady is a 1 in a billion shot, the fact that they did that just speaks to the extreme good fortune that franchise has had. I don't like using them as an example because things working out the way it did for them is such a long shot.

The Colts scenario is a much more likely one to use.

[jjchieffan]

Actually it's not a number I made up...the Packers gave up a 1st to get Favre so that one is kind of iffy but here look at this..

For every Brady, there's Troy Aikman, for every Montana there's John Elway for guys like Warner there's Jim Kelly...hell people forget guys like Trent Dilfer and Rex Grossman were 1st round picks.

Are there guys that make/win bowls that weren't first round picks, sure, it's just more difficult to find one of those guys and it's much more of a long shot.

Its funny that you brought up Dilfer and Grossman. They just managed the game, they were a waste of a first round pick as well, just becuase their defense won them a ring, doesn't make them worthy of a first round pick.

Secondly, I don't think it is any more difficult to find good QB's later on, just less risky. For every Peyton Manning, there is a Ryan Leaf. For every John Elway, there is a Todd Blackledge.

[Mecca]

For every Tom Brady there are 200 second day QB's that didn't work out...

Picking 1 in the first is still a much better chance then trying to find that needle in the hay stack of the second day.

[jjchieffan]

Its a crapshoot any way you look at it. We already have 2 young QB's on our roster to evaluate, no use in taking that crapshot right now.

[Mecca]

Its a crapshoot any way you look at it. We already have 2 young QB's on our roster to evaluate, no use in taking that crapshot right now.

Ok I'll lay out a scenario, tell me what you do with this...

Say you draft well this year but you don't take a QB, whatever positions OL, DL CB whatever..just not a QB.

Say the team in general is a little better next year but Croyle shows he's not the guy and you win 5 or 6 games because of that. Then in next years draft, the QB class is worse than this one...what do you do? Not take a QB and go with Croyle again at that point he will have become Losman or Boller....

Then if you have another good offseason your team even with Croyle not being good might win 7 or 8 games and then you have no chance at drafting a QB..

What do you do then?

[Mecca]

Ah yes so you bring in someone elses vet scrub. And we are right back to where the Chiefs have always been.

[jjchieffan]

Ok I'll lay out a scenario, tell me what you do with this...

Say you draft well this year but you don't take a QB, whatever positions OL, DL CB whatever..just not a QB.

Say the team in general is a little better next year but Croyle shows he's not the guy and you win 5 or 6 games because of that. Then in next years draft, the QB class is worse than this one...what do you do? Not take a QB and go with Croyle again at that point he will have become Losman or Boller....

Then if you have another good offseason your team even with Croyle not being good might win 7 or 8 games and then you have no chance at drafting a QB..

What do you do then?
Hopefully, give Thigpen a shot. Since he wasn't on the team in the preseason, none of us know what he can do. Who knows, maybe he has the tools. But I would rather do that than spend a first on a QB and then have the young one I already had come on and cause a QB controversy ala Brees/Rivers or Anderson/Quinn. Two teams that gave up on their young QB too soon. SD chose to go with Rivers and it appears that Brees is the better QB, Cleveland now has to decide which QB to go with. They will probably choose Quinn, abd if he busts, they are right back to square one.

[Mecca]

San Diego is playing in the AFC championship game...you can say Brees has better stats but they've gone to the playoffs and now made the championship with Phillip Rivers...

Let's also remember that trade for Rivers netted them Shawne Merriman overall that was a good move..

And there are far worse things than having 2 QB's. So many teams need them you can always trade one for something.

I just think you have far to much faith in the guys currently on the Chiefs roster to say "oh well if Brodie isn't the guy then it's Thigpen" that's kind of naive in my view honestly.

[FAX]

Bart Starr - Round: 17 / Pick: 200
Joe Namath - Round: 1 / Pick: 12
Len Dawson - Round: 1 / Pick: 5
Johnny Unitas - Round: 9 / Pick: 102
Roger Staubach - Round: 10 / Pick: 129
Earl Morrall - Round: 1 / Pick: 2
Bob Griese - Round: 1 / Pick: 4
Terry Bradshaw - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Ken Stabler - Round: 2
Jim Plunkett - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Joe Montana - Round: 3 / Pick: 82
Joe Theismann - Round: 4 / Pick: 99
Jim McMahon - Round: 1 / Pick: 5
Phil Simms - Round: 1 / Pick: 7
Doug Williams - Round: 1 / Pick: 17
Jeff Hostetler - Round: 3 / Pick: 59
Mark Rypien - Round: 6 / Pick: 146
Troy Aikman - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Steve Young - Round: 1
Brett Favre - Round: 2 / Pick: 33
John Elway - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Kurt Warner - Undrafted
Trent Dilfer - Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Tom Brady - Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Brad Johnson - Round: 9 / Pick: 227
Ben Roethlisberger - Round: 1 / Pick: 11
Peyton Manning - Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Of the 27 quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl, it looks to me like 15 were round 1 picks - unless I counted incorrectly.

FAX

[Mecca]

Yea I'm pretty sure that is correct unless you count them multiple times to get the actual number of bowls..

If you count the losers also the number begins to get more stark, especially if you do the multiple appearances count.

[jjchieffan]

15/27 = +/- 60%. Closer to 50% than 75%. Like I said. Mecca pulled that one out of his ass.

[Mecca]

15/27 = +/- 60%. Closer to 50% than 75%. Like I said. Mecca pulled that one out of his ass.

I was couting the loses too.......I was doing it as "guys who made the bowl"

[jjchieffan]

Yea I'm pretty sure that is correct unless you count them multiple times to get the actual number of bowls..

If you count the losers also the number begins to get more stark, especially if you do the multiple appearances count.

That's it Mecca, twist it to fit your opininion. I doubt that the multiple bowls would change it much anyway since Brady and Montana have 7. Starr had 2, Staubach had 2. That makes 19/41 unless I am forgetting someone that weren't 1st round picks.

[chiefscafan]

Guys we have way too many holes to fill. Drafting a qb with the first round pick is not a smart move.

Fix the line and you will see a better Croyle. Not just that but let him play with LJ and see what we have before we push the panic button. We can get a good one later in the draft most drafts have colt brennan falling and he would be a steal at the second or third round. Fix the oline. Long could be a bust then again he could be john alt and be there for 10 plus years.

[Mecca]

That's it Mecca, twist it to fit your opininion. I doubt that the multiple bowls would change it much anyway since Brady and Montana have 7. Starr had 2, Staubach had 2. That makes 19/41 unless I am forgetting someone that weren't 1st round picks.

Probably that Elway and Aikman together account for 8 bowls if you add in Jim Kelly it goes to 12 with just 3 guys.

[FAX]

I also don't think that Trent Dilfer should count because he really didn't do anything.

FAX

[Mecca]

Guys we have way too many holes to fill. Drafting a qb with the first round pick is not a smart move.

Fix the line and you will see a better Croyle. Not just that but let him play with LJ and see what we have before we push the panic button. We can get a good one later in the draft most drafts have colt brennan falling and he would be a steal at the second or third round. Fix the oline. Long could be a bust then again he could be john alt and be there for 10 plus years.

Ok so what about what I said.....there is still a much greater chance that Brodie Croyle is nothing than he makes it so what do you do if he doesn't? Sit in the middle of the draft never getting to pick a top notch QB and struggling to compete with elite teams?

[Mecca]

I also don't think that Trent Dilfer should count because he really didn't do anything.

FAX

LOL..Well you could argue that about several other guys too. They did enough to get to the Superbowl.

[patteeu]

How many QB's that have won or even made the Superbowl have been 1st round picks...

Before you look it up and count out the ridiculous number..it's about 75% as a rough estimation.

It's absolutely risky but the risk/reward is there. Sure lineman is safer and it's nice to have a franchise lineman but they still don't have the impact a QB does.

I bet it's substantially lower than 75%.

Edit: I could be wrong about this now that I think about it given that "1st round picks" covers a lot of territory beyond the premium 1st round spot that the Chiefs have in this year's draft. Either way, I'm looking into the answer.

There have been 50 unique QBs who have started in the Superbowl (both winners and losers). Of those, 24 have been 1st round picks. That's 48%.


1st round - 24
2nd round - 4
3rd round - 6
4th round - 3
5th round - 0
6th round - 4


1 8th, 2 9th, 1 10th, 1 12th, 1 17th, 1 18th, and 2 undrafted

If you count appearances instead of unique QBs, the number is 42 out of 82 or approx. 51%.


1st round - 42
2nd round - 5
3rd round - 11
4th round - 4
5th round - 0
6th round - 6

1 8th, 2 9th, 4 10th, 1 12th, 2 17th, 1 18th, and 3 undrafted

[patteeu]

Actually it's not......it's a ridiculous number that you don't realize till you actually look it up.

Apparently, that's not the case.

[Mecca]

Look at the difference in the odds in that round....there have been 6 3rd round starters in the bowl..6..and I believe the last one is Montana some 20 years ago.

And we have are hopes pinned on Brodie Croyle...

[Mecca]

Apparently, that's not the case.

It's still a good number that shows that generally they are 1st round picks...that number is still greater by a good margin. I think I'll take my chances with the 24 over the rounds with the single digits.

[DaKCMan AP]

It's still a good number that shows that generally they are 1st round picks...that number is still greater by a good margin. I think I'll take my chances with the 24 over the rounds with the single digits.

An "I was wrong" instead of further deflection would suffice.

[Mecca]

Sure my % was a bit off see what happens when you try to guess something real fast.

Still the odds say the first round gives you a much better chance.

[Mecca]

Ah yes I got owned lol.....

Well hey I'm not the one that thinks the Jake Long Brodie Croyle combo is gonna win a championship either so at least I got that.

[patteeu]

Look at the difference in the odds in that round....there have been 6 3rd round starters in the bowl..6..and I believe the last one is Montana some 20 years ago.

And we have are hopes pinned on Brodie Croyle...

But you seem to have things backwards. Choosing a QB in the first doesn't cause that QB to have a better chance of taking you to the Superbowl. I suppose you can say that consensus 1st rounders have a better chance to get you there than consensus 6th rounders, but your own draft people have to believe that the consensus is right.

The bottom line is this: If there is a great QB in the draft, you should take him at the first opportunity. Whether he is Peyton Manning (top of the draft), Tom Brady (6th round), Johnny Unitas (9th round), or Bart Starr (17th round), you take him if you recognize him. The question that remains is whether any great QBs exist in this draft class.

I mean, look at the difference in the odds of getting to the superbowl with a 5th rounder (no appearances) compared to a 6th rounder (6 appearances). That doesn't mean you pass on a QB you like in the 5th to hope he lasts until the 6th.

[Mecca]

But remains this problem...they actually get worse next year..

And the year after is anyones guess right now..if the Chiefs improve over 2 years then they sit in no position to get a QB and we sit in a horrible position.

[BigRock]

Of the 27 quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl, it looks to me like 15 were round 1 picks - unless I counted incorrectly.
But how many of the 15 were franchise QBs who went to the Super Bowl with the team who drafted them, and how many were picked in the 1st round and then bounced around before landing in the right situation?

'Cause obviously for purposes of our discussion, we'd be looking for the former. But just off the top of my head, there's at least 5-6 of those guys who fit the latter description. To get an exact count I guess you'd have to agree on which category to list Steve Young in. Elway I'd count as a franchise QB even though Denver didn't pick him.

So in terms of actual franchise QBs, not just first-round picks who went somewhere else and got lucky -- we don't want someone else's leftover QB, after all -- it's more like 9 or 10 out of 27 Super Bowl winners.

That's about 35%.

[milkman]

Bart Starr - Round: 17 / Pick: 200
Joe Namath - Round: 1 / Pick: 12
Len Dawson - Round: 1 / Pick: 5
Johnny Unitas - Round: 9 / Pick: 102
Roger Staubach - Round: 10 / Pick: 129
Earl Morrall - Round: 1 / Pick: 2
Bob Griese - Round: 1 / Pick: 4
Terry Bradshaw - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Ken Stabler - Round: 2
Jim Plunkett - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Joe Montana - Round: 3 / Pick: 82
Joe Theismann - Round: 4 / Pick: 99
Jim McMahon - Round: 1 / Pick: 5
Phil Simms - Round: 1 / Pick: 7
Doug Williams - Round: 1 / Pick: 17
Jeff Hostetler - Round: 3 / Pick: 59
Mark Rypien - Round: 6 / Pick: 146
Troy Aikman - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Steve Young - Round: 1
Brett Favre - Round: 2 / Pick: 33
John Elway - Round: 1 / Pick: 1
Kurt Warner - Undrafted
Trent Dilfer - Round: 1 / Pick: 6
Tom Brady - Round: 6 / Pick: 199
Brad Johnson - Round: 9 / Pick: 227
Ben Roethlisberger - Round: 1 / Pick: 11
Peyton Manning - Round: 1 / Pick: 1

Of the 27 quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl, it looks to me like 15 were round 1 picks - unless I counted incorrectly.

FAX

Dammit Fax!

[Mecca]

But how many of the 15 were franchise QBs who went to the Super Bowl with the team who drafted them, and how many were picked in the 1st round and then bounced around before landing in the right situation?

'Cause obviously for purposes of our discussion, we'd be looking for the former. But just off the top of my head, there's at least 5-6 of those guys who fit the latter description. To get an exact count I guess you'd have to agree on which category to list Steve Young in.

So in terms of actual franchise QBs, not just first-round picks who went somewhere else and got lucky -- we don't want someone else's leftover QB, after all -- it's more like 9 or 10 out of 27 Super Bowl winners.

That's about 35%.

Now we're gonna get into all sorts of specifics to prove a point right...We'll see if you draft a QB in the first round there's only a such and such percentage of him winning the bowl...

We should compare that percentage to say trying to do it the other ways and see which ones are greater, that might make a good argument.

[2112]

FYI. Joe Namath was a 1st round pick in the NFL and the AFL, he was a 1st round pick twice.

[FAX]

Look at the difference in the odds in that round....there have been 6 3rd round starters in the bowl..6..and I believe the last one is Montana some 20 years ago.

And we have are hopes pinned on Brodie Croyle...

How did this become a Croyle bashing deal? This is about figuring out whether or not you need a first round QB to have a reasonable shot at going to the Super Bowl.

I think Chanie Chan Chan put it well when he said "franchise quarterbacks" are determined post-draft, not pre-draft (or words to that effect).

FAX

[Mecca]

All I'm gonna say about it is when you see this..

1st round - 24
2nd round - 4
3rd round - 6
4th round - 3
5th round - 0
6th round - 4

Which round you betting on? When the 6th round has almost as many as the 3rd and has as many as the 2nd that should tell you what a crap shoot needle in a haystack spot you get into with mid round QB's.

[FAX]

FYI. Joe Namath was a 1st round pick in the NFL and the AFL, he was a 1st round pick twice.

So, do we count him twice? Maybe Trent Dilfer cancels out his second time.

FAX

[Mecca]

thats both retarded and confusing.

Well then let's discuss something you find important like the size of Jake Long's penis...if he turns to fast will it break Brodie Croyle's spine?

[milkman]

Herm doesn't think any of the QB's available are franchise QB's. If he is right, then it would be crazy to blow our first pick on one. We are more lkely to get a Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler than a Peyton Manning. That would do nothing for our team. Also, David Carr was ruined behind a terrible line. I don't want to ruin a good QB because he is constantly on his back.

One could argue (that "one" being me) that David Carr made a bad O-Line look worse than it actually was.

[FAX]

All I'm gonna say about it is when you see this..

1st round - 24
2nd round - 4
3rd round - 6
4th round - 3
5th round - 0
6th round - 4

Which round you betting on? When the 6th round has almost as many as the 3rd that should tell you what a crap shoot needle in a haystack spot you get into with mid round QB's.

Wait just a ding dong hang dang minute here. We're talking about the odds of a first rounder making it to the Bowl - not a sixth rounder. Where are you going with this? Are we contemplating waiting until the sixth round to get a franchise quarterback?

FAX

[2112]

So, do we count him twice? Maybe Trent Dilfer cancels out his second time.

FAX
That will work.


D2112

[OnTheWarpath15]

There have been 50 unique QBs who have started in the Superbowl (both winners and losers). Of those, 24 have been 1st round picks. That's 48%.


1st round - 24
2nd round - 4
3rd round - 6
4th round - 3
5th round - 0
6th round - 4


1 8th, 2 9th, 1 10th, 1 12th, 1 17th, 1 18th, and 2 undrafted

If you count appearances instead of unique QBs, the number is 42 out of 82 or approx. 51%.


1st round - 42
2nd round - 5
3rd round - 11
4th round - 4
5th round - 0
6th round - 6

1 8th, 2 9th, 4 10th, 1 12th, 2 17th, 1 18th, and 3 undrafted

Actually, I'd like to know what the numbers are for Top 5 QB's, since that's where we're picking. Some piece of trash like Grossman getting picked late in the 1st has no bearing on the discussion.

How many Top 5 QB's have played in a SB, since it's being argued that you need an elite QB to get there and win it.

The answer:

Going back 25 years, there have been 27 QB's picked in the Top 5.

9 of those 27 have ever played in a Super Bowl. 33%

5 of the 9 have won a SB.

[Mecca]

One could argue (that "one" being me) that David Carr made a bad O-Line look worse than it actually was.

David Carr isn't very good......he got drafted on tools more than anything.

At least with Ryan, he is his team in a top conference, playing with shit all around him. When you throw 650 times with his shitty receivers the 18 INT's isn't nearly as bad looking.

[BigRock]

Now we're gonna get into all sorts of specifics to prove a point right...

Isn't "what percentage of teams have been led to a SB title by their own franchise QB" a more fitting question for our purposes than "what percentage of teams have won a SB title with a first-round pick at QB, even if that QB played for 4 other teams first"?

I'd say it is.

[nomad]

If this team doesn't get to the SB in the next 10 years, it won't be because we stayed with Croyle, or drafted Long instead of Ryan.

It will be organizational failures that have failed this team, as it has for the past 20 years.

Average QB's get to the SB, average organizations/coaching staffs, do not...

Long addresses the biggest personel/talent gap on this team.

[patteeu]

Actually, I'd like to know what the numbers are for Top 5 QB's, since that's where we're picking. Some piece of trash like Grossman getting picked late in the 1st has no bearing on the discussion.

How many Top 5 QB's have played in a SB, since it's being argued that you need an elite QB to get there and win it.

The answer:

Going back 25 years, there have been 27 QB's picked in the Top 5.

8 of those 27 have ever played in a Super Bowl. 30%

5 of the 8 have won a SB.


That is interesting.

FWIW, going back to the first superbowl there are 16 different top 5 QBs who have started for a superbowl team and they've made a combined total of 29 appearances. I don't know how many top 5 QBs were drafted overall though.

[Rasputin]

NO young QB would have done well behind this O-line that Brodie was behind no matter what FN round he was picked. I doubt TOM GOD Brady or Peyton Jesus Manning would have gotten this team off the ground because they would have been sacked plenty and the WRs would not have been able to get down field like they do in NE or INDY. Look at the O-line that those QBs got and then look at ours. Brodie deserves a chance for success behind a much better O-line any young QB that is trying to make it in the NFL deserves better than what Brodie had to work with. We were one pick away from getting Brady Quinn but guess what HE would have failed this year behind this O-line.

Brodie is tough he can handle the pressure he can take a sack and get back up he did several times this year he took some pretty damn hard hits too that could have took out other QBs. You don't have to be a first rounder to be a successfull QB, successfull QBs have teams around them that support them and are put in possition from the HC for success. How would any young QB learn from this pathetic O-line anyways? I think Brodie will do just fine and get better next year and as soon as the team improves and the TEAM starts winning games then he can become what is expected of him.

[Mecca]

If this team doesn't get to the SB in the next 10 years, it won't be because we stayed with Croyle, or drafted Long instead of Ryan.

It will be organizational failures that have failed this team, as it has for the past 20 years.

Average QB's get to the SB, average organizations/coaching staffs, do not...

Long addresses the biggest personel/talent gap on this team.

Um which teams are winning right now with average QB's?

The 4 teams still remaining 2 have franchise QB's and the other 2 have top 5 picks they hope are franchise QB's...so come again?

[OnTheWarpath15]

That is interesting.

FWIW, going back to the first superbowl there are 16 different top 5 QBs who have started for a superbowl team and they've made a combined total of 29 appearances. I don't know how many top 5 QBs were drafted overall though.

I made a mistake.

I've updated my post to show 9/27, for 33%.

I missed Kerry Collins.

[BigMeatballDave]

Um which teams are winning right now with average QB's?

The 4 teams still remaining 2 have franchise QB's and the other 2 have top 5 picks they hope are franchise QB's...so come again?Right now, Manning and Rivers are average.

[Mecca]

Right now, Manning and Rivers are average.

Still top 5 picks.....

The only team in the playoffs I guess you could really compare to what the Chiefs are trying to do is Jacksonville and I'd rather not strive to be that.

[milkman]

Right now, Manning and Rivers are average.

It's interesting that you say that, because as a Playoff performer, Manning is pretty average.