T-post Tom
04-27-2008, 04:30 PM
10 NFL Draft Values
by Michael Abromowitz
NFL Draft Director
3/29/08
I compiled a list of ten prospects that I see a real value compared to where they are projected to be drafted. Value is a very difficult term to define in NFL Draft terms. I like to think of it as a risk/reward ratio. As you will read, prospects range from first round possibilities to undrafted free agents.
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami, Late 1st-Early 2nd Round
At one time projected as a top 10 prospect, but didn’t have a great junior campaign and his 40 time was only 4.48. He also falls down the first round because more of a premium is placed on cornerbacks rather than safeties. Getting a player of Phillips’ caliber anywhere after 20 I believe is a steal.
Dan Connor, LB, Penn St., Late 1st-Early 2nd Round
Connor seems to be reliving what Paul Posluszny did last year where his stock went from top 10 pick to eventual early 2nd rounder. Connor, like Posluszny, has the ability to play either ILB or OLB. Unlike Posluszny, Connor was not coming back from a knee injury. Will fall into the 20s or early 30s, not because of talent, but teams’ needs and premium placed on linebackers.
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami, 2nd Round
Every scout in the NFL is intrigued by his size of 6-8, 290 lbs, but very few have been impressed with his ability to live up to expectations. To Campbell’s credit, there were extremely high expectations. Prior to the 2007 College Football season, he was being compared to guys such as Mario Williams and Julius Peppers. But after a poor junior season and poorer offseason, Campbell has dropped from a potential top 5 draft pick to a 2nd rounder. But that potential is still there, and I think after the first round, drafting Campbell is a low risk/high reward opportunity. Many college players are better NFL players for many reasons such as focus on the game rather than college classes or having the mindset in the NFL of having to perform, rather than taking god’s natural gifts and using it with little intensity against lower competition as they do in college. I think Campbell will be a better pro and is probably more likely to become a superstar than Phillip Merling and Derrick Harvey. But he is also more likely to bust out.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas, 2nd Round
This guy is too good to be a 2nd round talent. The only reason Charles could drop into the 2nd round is because of the strong depth at running back in the NFL Draft. If Charles would have stayed in college, he would be the top 2009 NFL Draft running back prospect. Running a 4.38 40 only showed more proof that this guy is for real if his 1,619 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 6.3 yards per carry was not proof enough. I will be rooting for Charles on draft day, but at the same time be bitter toward aggressive agents who persuade these kids to leave school early only for them to sacrifice millions of dollars.
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt, 3rd Round
Another junior prospect who declared because he was talented enough to play in the NFL, but stock also drops because talent at the receiver position. Bennett, who is 6-0, didn’t help his stock when he ran a 4.48 speed. But I prefer to look at the statistics as much as the measurables. Bennett, is a three-time All-Southeastern selection and last year caught 75 passes for 830 yards and 5 touchdowns. He holds the SEC receiving record with 236 receptions. He makes catches and is a solid receiver. Not flashy, but I think he can be a very solid receiver, and a steal in the third round.
Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia, 4th Round
The top fullbacks in this draft usually go no earlier than the 4th round, so in reality the 4th round is really not a steal. But, having the chance to take a guy who can start from day 1, be a Pro Bowl caliber fullback for the next 10 years, and not only be a devastated blocker for a 1,000 yard rusher, but contribute on the ground is phenomenal value. I don’t like to use phrases like “least likely to bust”, but Schmitt probably one of the least risky prospects in the draft.
Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson – late 4th to early 6th Round
Richardson probably is suffering from Brian Brohm syndrome, where his stock has dropped after deciding to stay in college. Richardson has great size at 6-7, 338 lbs. and was a four year starter for Clemson, but many analysts are saying “lacks the intensity.” Well for Richardson that is good news because that’s one weakness that he can improve on, unlike height and a vast change in 40 speed. If Richardson has that light bulb come on in his head and plays like the giant beast that he can, then he will be a phenomenal steal. Physically, Richardson is everything you want from an offensive tackle.
Kevin O’Connell, QB, San Diego St. – 5th Round
O’Connell is not one of those prospects that fall due to poor measurables. He measures in at 6-5, 225 lbs, and 4.61 speed. He actually led San Diego St. in rushing last season. Even with his rushing stats, he still posted 3,063 passing yards. He is projected in the 5th primarily because he is still somewhat raw and not as NFL ready as most prospects. O’Connell’s ceiling may be one of the highest of any quarterbacks in the draft. If given 2 years of grooming, could be a real steal. A valuable investment for a team with a veteran quarterback like the New Orleans Saints or Seattle Seahawks.
Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise St. – 5th Round
Scandrick probably got caught up with all the hoopla of teammate Ryan Clady declaring for the draft that he decided to also declare. Scandrick though has been impressive this offseason with great workouts highlighted by his 4.32 40. He also should be valuable on special teams where last season he blocked 4 kicks on special teams and with his speed could also be a kick returner. Still somewhat inconsistent, plays more on natural speed, but could be a true shutdown corner in this league. Great value.
J Leman, ILB, Illinois – 7th Round to Free Agent
Leman probably didn’t help his stock with his recent ankle surgery. Leman, by many analysts, is classified as one of those college players that do well in college, but lack the ideal measurements and physical skills to excel at the NFL level. As the optimist and a fan of Leman, I like to think “then what is the risk?” Having the chance to draft a guy who had 407 career tackles, decent size, and has the motor and work ethic that Leman has in the 7th round I believe is very little risk whatsoever. I do actually think Leman can not only play in the NFL, but become a very solid starter.
by Michael Abromowitz
NFL Draft Director
3/29/08
I compiled a list of ten prospects that I see a real value compared to where they are projected to be drafted. Value is a very difficult term to define in NFL Draft terms. I like to think of it as a risk/reward ratio. As you will read, prospects range from first round possibilities to undrafted free agents.
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami, Late 1st-Early 2nd Round
At one time projected as a top 10 prospect, but didn’t have a great junior campaign and his 40 time was only 4.48. He also falls down the first round because more of a premium is placed on cornerbacks rather than safeties. Getting a player of Phillips’ caliber anywhere after 20 I believe is a steal.
Dan Connor, LB, Penn St., Late 1st-Early 2nd Round
Connor seems to be reliving what Paul Posluszny did last year where his stock went from top 10 pick to eventual early 2nd rounder. Connor, like Posluszny, has the ability to play either ILB or OLB. Unlike Posluszny, Connor was not coming back from a knee injury. Will fall into the 20s or early 30s, not because of talent, but teams’ needs and premium placed on linebackers.
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami, 2nd Round
Every scout in the NFL is intrigued by his size of 6-8, 290 lbs, but very few have been impressed with his ability to live up to expectations. To Campbell’s credit, there were extremely high expectations. Prior to the 2007 College Football season, he was being compared to guys such as Mario Williams and Julius Peppers. But after a poor junior season and poorer offseason, Campbell has dropped from a potential top 5 draft pick to a 2nd rounder. But that potential is still there, and I think after the first round, drafting Campbell is a low risk/high reward opportunity. Many college players are better NFL players for many reasons such as focus on the game rather than college classes or having the mindset in the NFL of having to perform, rather than taking god’s natural gifts and using it with little intensity against lower competition as they do in college. I think Campbell will be a better pro and is probably more likely to become a superstar than Phillip Merling and Derrick Harvey. But he is also more likely to bust out.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas, 2nd Round
This guy is too good to be a 2nd round talent. The only reason Charles could drop into the 2nd round is because of the strong depth at running back in the NFL Draft. If Charles would have stayed in college, he would be the top 2009 NFL Draft running back prospect. Running a 4.38 40 only showed more proof that this guy is for real if his 1,619 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 6.3 yards per carry was not proof enough. I will be rooting for Charles on draft day, but at the same time be bitter toward aggressive agents who persuade these kids to leave school early only for them to sacrifice millions of dollars.
Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt, 3rd Round
Another junior prospect who declared because he was talented enough to play in the NFL, but stock also drops because talent at the receiver position. Bennett, who is 6-0, didn’t help his stock when he ran a 4.48 speed. But I prefer to look at the statistics as much as the measurables. Bennett, is a three-time All-Southeastern selection and last year caught 75 passes for 830 yards and 5 touchdowns. He holds the SEC receiving record with 236 receptions. He makes catches and is a solid receiver. Not flashy, but I think he can be a very solid receiver, and a steal in the third round.
Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia, 4th Round
The top fullbacks in this draft usually go no earlier than the 4th round, so in reality the 4th round is really not a steal. But, having the chance to take a guy who can start from day 1, be a Pro Bowl caliber fullback for the next 10 years, and not only be a devastated blocker for a 1,000 yard rusher, but contribute on the ground is phenomenal value. I don’t like to use phrases like “least likely to bust”, but Schmitt probably one of the least risky prospects in the draft.
Barry Richardson, OT, Clemson – late 4th to early 6th Round
Richardson probably is suffering from Brian Brohm syndrome, where his stock has dropped after deciding to stay in college. Richardson has great size at 6-7, 338 lbs. and was a four year starter for Clemson, but many analysts are saying “lacks the intensity.” Well for Richardson that is good news because that’s one weakness that he can improve on, unlike height and a vast change in 40 speed. If Richardson has that light bulb come on in his head and plays like the giant beast that he can, then he will be a phenomenal steal. Physically, Richardson is everything you want from an offensive tackle.
Kevin O’Connell, QB, San Diego St. – 5th Round
O’Connell is not one of those prospects that fall due to poor measurables. He measures in at 6-5, 225 lbs, and 4.61 speed. He actually led San Diego St. in rushing last season. Even with his rushing stats, he still posted 3,063 passing yards. He is projected in the 5th primarily because he is still somewhat raw and not as NFL ready as most prospects. O’Connell’s ceiling may be one of the highest of any quarterbacks in the draft. If given 2 years of grooming, could be a real steal. A valuable investment for a team with a veteran quarterback like the New Orleans Saints or Seattle Seahawks.
Orlando Scandrick, CB, Boise St. – 5th Round
Scandrick probably got caught up with all the hoopla of teammate Ryan Clady declaring for the draft that he decided to also declare. Scandrick though has been impressive this offseason with great workouts highlighted by his 4.32 40. He also should be valuable on special teams where last season he blocked 4 kicks on special teams and with his speed could also be a kick returner. Still somewhat inconsistent, plays more on natural speed, but could be a true shutdown corner in this league. Great value.
J Leman, ILB, Illinois – 7th Round to Free Agent
Leman probably didn’t help his stock with his recent ankle surgery. Leman, by many analysts, is classified as one of those college players that do well in college, but lack the ideal measurements and physical skills to excel at the NFL level. As the optimist and a fan of Leman, I like to think “then what is the risk?” Having the chance to draft a guy who had 407 career tackles, decent size, and has the motor and work ethic that Leman has in the 7th round I believe is very little risk whatsoever. I do actually think Leman can not only play in the NFL, but become a very solid starter.