PDA

View Full Version : Peter Schrager's top 15 prospects in 2009.


Direckshun
05-15-2008, 06:41 PM
On the Clock: 15 prospects for '09 NFL Draft
by Peter Schrager

We're just a few days removed from the 2008 NFL Draft and fans are already buzzing about next year's batch of pro prospects. Who'll be the top five picks of the 2009 draft? Which quarterbacks are worthy of first-round picks? Are there any small-school guys you should be looking for when the college season starts?

But before we get to all that, let's hold up and take a deep breath.

Want to know about the next generation of NFL stars? We've got you covered as Peter Schrager takes you inside the 2008 NFL Draft.

Why? Let me reference my post-draft column from last year. Brian Brohm (56th overall) was the unanimous top pro QB prospect entering the 2007 college season. Quintin Groves (52nd overall) and Calais Campbell (50th overall) were the top-rated defensive players, and Steve Slaton (89th overall) was a projected first-round pick. Vernon Gholston (6th overall) didn't crack the top 10 defensive players list and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (16th overall) didn't even get a mention.

The lesson? A lot can change in 12 months. Senior seasons, injuries, combine workouts, pro days, interviews — they all come into play.

That said, here are my top 15 pro prospects for the 2009 NFL Draft, as of 4/28/08:

*Indicates prospect is an underclassman

1. *Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Whereas Richmond, Buffalo and Montana all had two players selected in last weekend's draft, Alabama — yes, Bear Bryant's Alabama — had zero. Not one! That'll change if Smith leaves early next year. A mauling left tackle, he has the goods to be a top three pick.

2. Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: Jackson didn't have the breakout '07 campaign everyone expected, but he showed some real flashes of dominance. He'll be a terror as a senior in '08. At 6-foot-5, 290 pounds, he can come off the edge or be moved inside and play DT. Jackson's not the fastest guy in the world, but with some more work on technique, he could be unstoppable.

3. James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: Is he the next Andy Katzenmoyer or the next A.J. Hawk? I'll go with the latter. The son of former WWF star Animal (of the tag-team The Road Warriors) is a two-time All-American with a great NFL frame. A tackling machine, he's already won a Butkus Award.

4. Rey Maualuga, LB, USC: A two-time All-Pac 10 performer and the 2008 Rose Bowl MVP, Maualuga returned to school for his senior year, where he'll be the Trojans' go-to guy on defense and in the locker room. He's a menacing middle linebacker with great speed and tackling ability. Either way, he's a top 10 pick.

5. *Myron Rolle, S, Florida State: Rolle likely won't leave school early, but if he does, he's a surefire first rounder. Spectacular on the field and off, he's got the size, speed, and smarts to be a Pro Bowl safety at the next level. An incredible hitter, too. The nation's No. 1 high school recruit from two years ago has not disappointed at FSU.

6. Fili Moala, DT, USC: Though Sedrick Ellis and Lawrence Jackson got most the press on the Trojans defensive line last season, Moala excelled at DT for the second straight season. In '08, he'll become a household name. At 6-foot-5, 300 pounds, he has good size and potential to be an outstanding pro player.

7. Alex Boone, OT, Ohio State: The left tackle opening holes for Beanie Wells in Columbus, Boone's got all the physical tools and smarts to be a fantastic NFL player. He came back for the '08 campaign to win a national title. In the process, he'll solidify himself as a top 10 pick.

8. Max Unger, OT, Oregon: The two-time All-Pac-10 performer can likely play any spot on an offensive line and should be a top 10 selection. How good is Unger? Ask Jonathan Stewart, his Oregon teammate and the 13th pick in last weekend's draft.

9. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: The subject of Michael Lewis' New York Times best seller "The Blind Side," Oher decided to come back to school for his senior season, where he'll play under new head coach Houston Nutt. At 6-foot-6 and 330 pounds, Oher's got NFL size and NFL skill. He likely would have been a top 15 pick if he came out in '07. He'll sneak into the top 10 with a good senior season.

10. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: The hands-down top cornerback prospect of next year's draft class, there's a chance Jenkins would have gone even before Leodis McKelvin in this year's draft. He's got safety size, blazing speed and great instincts. He's a complete cornerback.

11. *Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: For years, the greatest mystery in college football was what would happen if you put top high school recruits in Texas Tech coach Mike Leach's high-flying offense? The answer: A freshman season which included Biletnikoff and Paul Warfield Awards, a unanimous first team All-American selection, and a 2007 stat line that was downright scary — 134 receptions, 1,962 yards, and 22 touchdowns. Because Crabtree red-shirted his freshman season, he is eligible for the '09 Draft if he opts to leave early. He's got the size and hands to be downright nasty. The comparisions to Andre Johnson aren't that far off. Then again, it's not like there are no other great Texas Tech wideouts in the league. Wes Welker had a pretty decent year last season, no?

12. Brian Cushing, LB, USC: A solid backer who seems to have played for USC for about a decade, Cushing will be a reliable pro once he gets there. Never flashy, he's been a steady contributor to the USC defense since '05. He was injured a bit in '07, but should star as alongside Maualuga at LB in '08.

13. Herman Johnson, OL, LSU: Johnson's a monster. When he was born, he tipped the scales at 15 pounds, 14 ounces — the largest baby ever born in Louisiana. He's developed nicely. At 6-foot-7, 350 pounds, he'll be one of the larger prospects in the draft, and he could sneak into the top 10 if he has a breakout senior season. King Dunlap, the giant Auburn tackle, had the same situation at this time last year. He was inconsistent, was benched, and fell to the second day of the draft. I don't see that happening with Herman "The House" Johnson.

14. *Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: Truly one of the more intriguing NFL prospects of all-time. Scouts are split down the middle on him. Is he a system guy that can only work out of a shotgun? Or is he the most promising quarterback prospect of the past 10 years? He's got Joe Flacco height, the build of a middle linebacker, and as decorated a college career as you'll ever find after just two seasons. The only sophomore to ever win a Heisman, the single-season SEC all-time leader in touchdowns, and a guy considered the top passing quarterback recruit in high school back in '06. There's plenty to love about Tebow. But all those hits, Alex Smith's NFL failures (also from an Urban Meyer offense), and the fantastic talent surrounding him at Florida can all be pointed to as potential negatives. My thought? If Tebow comes out next year — and that's a huge if — he's the first quarterback taken in the draft.

15. *Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: Beanie's a preseason Heisman hopeful and likely the top pro prospect at running back. A first-team All Big Ten player last season, he should have a big junior campaign.

Five Day 2 picks you didn't hear much about ... that I liked

You'll hear the first round dissected top to bottom, bottom to top over the next few days. But how about the second-day picks? Here are five that you likely haven't read much about that I really liked:

1. Jacob Hester, LSU, RB, 69th overall to San Diego: The Chargers must have really loved Hester too, as they traded a future second-round pick to move up and grab the guy. Every time the BCS champion LSU Tigers needed a big yard on fourth-and-short, Hester found a way to get it. Watching him convert first down after first down against Florida last season was like watching Picasso paint — truly a master of his craft. He'll be a pain in the butt for AFC West teams for years to come, spelling LaDainian Tomlinson on short yardage and attracting the endless praise of broadcasters and talking heads for his "grittiness." He can block well, too. At 69th overall, it might have been a little high, but San Diego did what they had to do to get their guy. Remember, people said they reached on Eric Weddle last year, too. Safe to say that pick worked out pretty well.

2. Bruce Davis, UCLA, LB, 88th overall to Pittsburgh: One of my favorite college players of the past few years, Davis was the heart and soul of the UCLA defense since he got to Westwood. An All-American defensive end that got labeled with the heinous "tweener" label, he'll move to outside linebacker in Mike Tomlin and Dick LaBeau's 3-4 scheme. I have no doubt that he'll excel in that OLB spot. Though some critics think Davis is more talk than walk, his mouth isn't the only thing with a motor. Steelers fans are going to love this guy.

3. Beau Bell, UNLV, LB, 104th overall to Cleveland: The Browns traded up to get Bell, the MWC Defensive Player of the Year, who slipped all the way to 104. Some mock drafts had Bell going as early as the second round. Blessed with a good build for an ILB in Romeo Crennel's system, he's a tackle machine that both gets to the quarterback and plays pass defense. Beau Bell at 104th overall is a steal for Cleveland.

4. Quintin Demps, UTEP, S, 117th overall to Philadelphia: Maybe my favorite pick of the entire weekend, Demps — projected to go as high as the second round by some — fell all the way to 117th overall. Philadelphia passed on Kenny Phillips in the first round, assuming they could get a top safety down the road. Demps is undoubtedly that guy. Playing free safety at UTEP, he had 17 career interceptions — an impressive number for any player, let alone a safety. He can also hit. Let Brian Dawkins show him the ropes for a few years, and see Demps flourish into an outstanding pro.

5. DeMario Pressley, N.C. State, DT, 144th overall to New Orleans: Pressley came to N.C. State out of Dudley High School as one of the school's most highly prized football recruits of all-time, and arguably the top high school DT prospect in the nation. He underperformed in college, but played alongside some top defensive line talent in Mario Williams, John McCargo, Manny Lawson and Tank Tyler. At 6-foot-3, 300 pounds, he's a bulky guy and was downright un-movable at times. He could be a late bloomer who finds himself more ready to dominate on the pro level than in college. With the selection of star DT Sedrick Ellis in the first round, the Saints had the luxury to take a flier on Pressley in the fifth. I love the move and think he could end up being one of the real steals of the draft.

Five Day 2 picks you didn't hear much about ... that I hated

1. Jason Shirley, Fresno State, DE, 145th to Cincinnati: The most ridiculous pick of the entire draft. Are the Bengals trying to bring in more trouble? Shirley was suspended three times and eventually kicked off the Fresno State team for off-the-field incidents and foul behavior. You almost want to make a joke about this, but it's just sad. To another team? Perhaps he's worth the pick. But the Bengals? Come on, guys.

2. Bryan Smith, McNeese State, OLB, 80th to Philadelphia: It's nothing against Smith, who I think is a decent enough player. I just think there were a lot of other guys still on the board that the Eagles could have taken so early in the draft. At 80th overall, Smith went about 100 spots higher than most expected. Cliff Avril, Xavier Adibi, Stanford Keglar, and Robert James were all rated much higher on my board.

3. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon, 156th to Pittsburgh: I know, I know, everyone loves Dixon's "upside." But with Andre Woodson, Erik Ainge, and others still on the board, I'm not sure Pittsburgh needed to take Dixon here. And if they were looking for a more mobile, Kordell Stewart/Antwan Randle-El type of guy, I think Josh Johnson, the kid out of San Diego, was a better prospect. He went four picks later to Tampa.

4. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego, 160th to Tampa Bay: Speaking of Johnson, he made for quite a curious pick, too. I actually like Johnson a lot. I think he's a fine prospect. But unless the Bucs plan on using him somewhere other than quarterback, I have no idea why they'd draft him. Or any other quarterbacks for that matter. Tampa Bay already has five other QBs currently on their roster — and that doesn't even include Jake Plummer. The Bucs' five quarterbacks — Bruce Gradkowski, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Luke McCown — are young, old, slow, fast, everything. They run the gamut. Where's Johnson fit in? I have no idea.

5. William Hayes, DE, Winston-Salem, 104th to Tennessee: With wide receiver such a pressing need in Tennessee, the Titans reached on a defensive end out of a small school that most draftniks didn't have going until the sixth or seventh round instead of taking one here. Vince Young only got one new receiver this draft — the inconsistent Lavelle Hawkins out of Cal — and there were several viable options available at 104. I would have liked to have seen the Titans grab an Arman Shields or Will Franklin with this pick.

Is it the shoes?

While The NFL Network and ESPN fought over TV ratings last weekend, Nike and Reebok battled over endorsement deals. Nike won that one easily. According to Darren Rovell at CNBC, Jake Long, Chris Long, Darren McFadden, Derrick Harvey, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, and Leodis McKelvin all signed with Nike. Joe Flacco and Kenny Phillips were the only first-round picks of note to sign with Reebok.

So how'd I do?

It'd be easy to do what most other draft "experts" do the week after the draft — burn my mock drafts to a crisp and pretend like they never happened. But I'll eat some crow when it's deserved. I'll also pat myself on the back.

The Good

# I predicted just one wide receiver would be drafted in the first round. I predicted one too many. Zero receivers were taken in the first 32 picks.

# I predicted Jerod Mayo to go in the top 15 and got some pretty nasty emails calling me crazy for having the Vols LB getting drafted so high. He then went No. 10 overall.

# I had both Brian Brohm and Chad Henne slipping to the second round.

The Ugly

# I didn't have OT Duane Brown being drafted until 45th overall. He went 26th in the first round to Houston.

# I had Georgia Tech DE Darrell Robertson going 57th overall in the second round. Robertson was not drafted.

# I made a big stink over Jonathan Stewart's injury woes and thought he'd slip to the second round. He was scooped up 13th overall by the Panthers.

Now please excuse me as I wipe all this egg off my face.

Some final Draft Weekend thoughts:

Though I captured several of Day 1's crowd highlights in my "On The Scene" column on Saturday, Day 2 had just as many moments worth sharing. Here are three good ones:

1. As part of the festivities, the NFL selects a fan in the building at random to announce one of the fan's favorite team's late-round selections. He/she gets to go to the podium, announce the seventh-round pick, and pose for a few photographs on stage. A nice gesture by the league for the folks who grind it out at Radio City for the full second day. This year, the winner was a middle-aged Bears fan dressed in a Brian Urlacher jersey. Sure enough, he is announced, emerges on stage, and just gets bombarded with boos. "Urlacher Sucks" is the chant of choice. The poor guy then announces the pick — Joey LaRocque out of Oregon State — and LaRocque is booed! Why the heckling? No reason at all, other than a chance to boo. I love the NFL Draft.

2. Both the NFL Network and ESPN have TV sets placed in the middle of Radio City. The NFL Network's set is directly in front of one group of fans, while the ESPN one is placed in front of another. In what ended up being a fun little tug of war during the fifth round, the restless folks seated in front of the NFL Network started a "Miiike Mayock ... clap, clap, clap) Miiiike Mayock ..." chant. Seconds later, this was answered by the fans placed by the ESPN set, in the form of a "Meeeeeel Kiper ... (clap, clap, clap) Meeeeel Kiper ..." chant back. The two groups went back and forth for a few minutes before fading out. There were absolutely zero chants for Todd McShay.

3. The Day 1 soundtrack featured carefully picked songs that had some sort of connection to each team on the clock. For Miami's pick, Will Smith's "Welcome to Miami" was played; for New York's, Billy Joel's "New York State of Mind"; for Seattle's, Pearl Jam's "Evenflow."

Day 2's music, however, was completely random. There were over 200 picks on Sunday, and each one had a different song accompanying it. Some curious ones worth noting? — Ha's "Take on Me," The Spin Doctors' "Two Princes," Matthew Sweet's "Girlfriend," and Snow's "Informer" (Matt Walsh's personal favorite, perhaps?). Toss in some Springsteen, Scandal, Deep Purple, and Red Hot Chili Peppers, and it was as though it was just some random 30-year-old dude's iPod on shuffle.

Impressed with the musical selections, CBS's Clark Judge and I asked our contact at the NFL who made the playlist and how exactly it was selected. What was the process?

The answer? "It's some guy's iPod on shuffle."

Tribal Warfare
05-15-2008, 09:30 PM
Herman Johnson is a guy to keep an eye on, a possible Brian Waters replacement