Mecca
07-29-2008, 07:47 PM
Well according to the money line......
http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/?p=612
I came up with the chart below using the same methodology as I did with the USC, Ohio St, and Georgia previews. These numbers do not take into account any potential conference championship games or bowl games.
http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/images/08cfbundefeatedodds.JPG
Vegas Watch did this a few weeks ago in his own way. Some of our numbers are similar. Others not so much.
Coming up with the point spreads for each game was a lot easier tonight then it was a few weeks ago. This time around I had access to a few sets of power numbers as well as the Sportsbook GOY odds.
I gave up on the college football previews early on because it became clear to me that there was no value to be had in this season’s college football futures market. I didn’t want to waste my time if there wasn’t going to be a bet in it for me at the end.
However, I ended up making a play after coming up with this latest list. Naturally I took the only team with actual value*, although it was extremely marginal and probably even debatable. I’ll be making a post about it on Monday. Feel free to guess in the mean time.
As expected USC has the best chance to finish the season undefeated. That doesn’t mean they are the best team though. Their odds of going 12-0 aren’t that much better than Florida and Oklahoma’s, and USC probably has the easiest schedule of the 3.
The primary set of power numbers* that I used in coming up with the lines had Georgia rated as the 2nd best team in the nation yet they only have the 10th best shot of going 12-0. It just goes to show how brutal that schedule really is.
A few teams had their odds completely slaughtered by one game. LSU would be in okay shape if they didn’t have to travel to Gainesville this year where they figure to be more than a one TD underdog. USF’s spot on the list will probably surprise some people, but if it weren’t for the Bulls season ending trip to Morgantown, they’d have a truly excellent shot of running the table.
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last month lamenting the fact that I never got down on Clemson while they were still out there at 50-1. Turns out this was a nice case of blind luck. They probably won’t be an underdog all season long, but their odds of reaching the national championship game are still very slim. Land mines litter the Tigers path to Miami.
Iowa and Notre Dame do not have very good chances of making it through their schedules unbeaten. Hawkeye fans were extremely excited about the two year break from Ohio St and Michigan when the schedule came out a few years ago. It is a shame that the team just isn’t very good anymore. They could be underdogs in half their games.
I really respect Pinnacle’s honesty in regards to BYU. Even if the Cougs do go undefeated they still won’t get an invite to the national championship game nor should they. Not when their signature win would be at Utah.
Based solely on my numbers and the Pinnacle odds West Virginia is best bet on this list, but they probably don’t represent true value. Oklahoma would be my next choice, I guess.
Make sure to shop around if you decide to make your own play. Every team on this list besides USC is available elsewhere at a better price.
*I got much better odds elsewhere.
*Phil Steele’s. Don’t even think about calling me biased.
I thought Missouri fans would enjoy seeing how high up they are on that list.
http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/?p=612
I came up with the chart below using the same methodology as I did with the USC, Ohio St, and Georgia previews. These numbers do not take into account any potential conference championship games or bowl games.
http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/images/08cfbundefeatedodds.JPG
Vegas Watch did this a few weeks ago in his own way. Some of our numbers are similar. Others not so much.
Coming up with the point spreads for each game was a lot easier tonight then it was a few weeks ago. This time around I had access to a few sets of power numbers as well as the Sportsbook GOY odds.
I gave up on the college football previews early on because it became clear to me that there was no value to be had in this season’s college football futures market. I didn’t want to waste my time if there wasn’t going to be a bet in it for me at the end.
However, I ended up making a play after coming up with this latest list. Naturally I took the only team with actual value*, although it was extremely marginal and probably even debatable. I’ll be making a post about it on Monday. Feel free to guess in the mean time.
As expected USC has the best chance to finish the season undefeated. That doesn’t mean they are the best team though. Their odds of going 12-0 aren’t that much better than Florida and Oklahoma’s, and USC probably has the easiest schedule of the 3.
The primary set of power numbers* that I used in coming up with the lines had Georgia rated as the 2nd best team in the nation yet they only have the 10th best shot of going 12-0. It just goes to show how brutal that schedule really is.
A few teams had their odds completely slaughtered by one game. LSU would be in okay shape if they didn’t have to travel to Gainesville this year where they figure to be more than a one TD underdog. USF’s spot on the list will probably surprise some people, but if it weren’t for the Bulls season ending trip to Morgantown, they’d have a truly excellent shot of running the table.
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last month lamenting the fact that I never got down on Clemson while they were still out there at 50-1. Turns out this was a nice case of blind luck. They probably won’t be an underdog all season long, but their odds of reaching the national championship game are still very slim. Land mines litter the Tigers path to Miami.
Iowa and Notre Dame do not have very good chances of making it through their schedules unbeaten. Hawkeye fans were extremely excited about the two year break from Ohio St and Michigan when the schedule came out a few years ago. It is a shame that the team just isn’t very good anymore. They could be underdogs in half their games.
I really respect Pinnacle’s honesty in regards to BYU. Even if the Cougs do go undefeated they still won’t get an invite to the national championship game nor should they. Not when their signature win would be at Utah.
Based solely on my numbers and the Pinnacle odds West Virginia is best bet on this list, but they probably don’t represent true value. Oklahoma would be my next choice, I guess.
Make sure to shop around if you decide to make your own play. Every team on this list besides USC is available elsewhere at a better price.
*I got much better odds elsewhere.
*Phil Steele’s. Don’t even think about calling me biased.
I thought Missouri fans would enjoy seeing how high up they are on that list.