Sleeper picks and real dark horses...Foxsports

[King_Chief_Fan]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8482264/?MSNHPHCP&GT1=39002

Denver to make the playoffs?
KC worse than Miami? (maybe so, they did bitch slap the Chiefs in preseason)

[Bob Dole]

It's funny to see just how badly people want Cutler to be a winning QB.

[triple]

these writers are just assigned a story. they are told to write the sleepers article for this year so they have to come up with something. they go to nfl.com, look at all the team logos, and start typing. nobody who has seen cutler is going to pick him to be a great QB

[CoMoChief]

Mark my words. Denver is going to suck......and suck bad this season. Shanny has this and next season and I think he gets the boot.

[triple]

and they think eddie royal is good that is all you need to know

[PhillyChiefFan]

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes, so maybe he's right on some of it.

Though I agree, I don't see Denver doing much this year.

[Mr. Laz]

Forget chic sleeper picks, here are real dark horses

<!-- // Writer Attribution// --><!-- Meta Tag For Search --><!-- meta name="author" content="Peter Schrager"--><!-- meta name="source" content="FOXSports.com"--><!-- meta name="eventId" content=""--><!-- meta name="contentTypeCode" content="1"--><!-- meta name="editorContentCode" content="1"--><!-- meta name="blurb" content="You better not sleep on Peter Schrager's NFL dark horses. Especially when he's weeded out all the trendy pretenders for you."--> <!-- meta name="modDate" content="September 2, 2008 16:01:31 GMT"--> http://msn.foxsports.com/id/8833239_6_2.jpg (http://msn.foxsports.com/writer/Peter-Schrager?authorId=282)by Peter Schrager (http://msn.foxsports.com/writer/Peter-Schrager?authorId=282)



<script type="text/javascript">//document.getElementById('number_of_comments').innerHTML = commentCount+" Comments"; </script><!-- // Story Content // --> <script> if(fanid.length > 0 && typeof(nflDefaultLeague)!= "undefined") { leagueId = nflDefaultLeague; //find teamId of default league (if exists) for(var i=0; i < teamsInfo.length; i++){ if(teamsInfo[4] == leagueId){ defaultTeamId = teamsInfo[i][0]; } } var fantasyLeaguePlayerJsPath = 'http://msn.foxsports.com' + '/nugget/200002_' + leagueId + '|||' + fanid; } </script> In politics, they're called darkhorse candidates. In football, they're known as sleepers. They're the teams that aren't supposed to do anything, only to emerge in the foreground as leaders of the pack.

Late August is prime sleeper coronation season, not only for a guy like Sen. Joe Biden, but for the NFL as well. Around this time every year, talking heads and pundits anoint a few teams as the consensus sleeper picks for the season. Known as the chic or sexy sleeper picks, these selections are almost always destined to disappoint.
Without fail, it's the teams and players that absolutely nobody was talking about in late August that end up shocking the league come the winter months.
In 2006, the Rams and Dolphins were the sexy sleeper picks in late summer. Of course, it was the out-of-nowhere New Orleans Saints and the surprising New York Jets — each led by rookie coaches and rejuvenated quarterbacks — surging to the playoffs. Neither the Rams nor Dolphins finished better than .500.
Last season, the 49ers were such a hot pick out of the NFC in August that you couldn't help but jump on the bandwagon. It got so out of hand that pundits were even talking Super Bowl. Bill Williamson, then writing for the [I]Denver Post, did just that — predicting the upstart Niners to take on the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Naturally, San Francisco managed to win just five games. "Hey, that's what I get for trying to be on the cutting edge," Williamson said. "I also liked Jolt, Right Said Fred and Howard Dean."

Last season's sleepers were the Cleveland Browns. Though they didn't qualify for the postseason, the Browns showed off a wide-open offense and won 10 games. I was as guilty as anyone for overlooking the Browns: I had Cleveland ranked 32nd out of 32 teams in my preseason power rankings.

Unlike any other American professional sports league, the NFL offers the opportunity for sleeper squads to emerge. Since 1996, 72 teams have made the playoffs after not qualifying the previous season, and 2007 marked the 12th consecutive season with at least five new playoff teams in the field of 12.

Analyzing the odds, it's safe to assume that of the 20 teams that did not make the playoffs last season, four are likely headed to the postseason in 2008. Which four?
Let's go through the process of elimination in determining those teams.

Eliminated right away

Miami Dolphins: New coach, new GM, new VP of football operations, three new QBs, no Jason Taylor, no Zach Thomas ... Need more reasons? In truth, Miami should be much improved from its dreadful 1-15 season. Ricky Williams looks fantastic this preseason and Ted Ginn is going to be a pleasant surprise. They still won't win more than five games.

Kansas City Chiefs: When just about everyone affiliated with the team is hinting at the word "rebuilding," that's not a good thing. They could be worse than even Miami.

Atlanta Falcons: Though everyone's excited about the long-term possibilities for Atlanta, it can't happen this year. With a first-year quarterback, a first-year coach, and a first-year GM — on top of a young and unproven offensive line and a defense filled with question marks — there's just no way. Falcons fans will like this team. But they won't be good.

Baltimore Ravens: This one may get the Baltimore faithful a little riled up, but it's the truth. The defense is not what it once was, the offensive line is a complete question mark without Jonathan Ogden, and the Troy Smith/Kyle Boller/Joe Flacco quarterback trio leaves a lot to be desired.

Detroit Lions: Since Matt Millen took over, the Lions have yet to finish above .500 or finish anywhere but last or next to last in their division. It will be more of the same in 2008 since there's no reason to believe otherwise.

Worth considering, but not happening

Cincinnati Bengals: The offense may emerge in '05 fashion, lighting up the league. But the defense — Marvin Lewis' specialty — just isn't there yet. Justin Smith and Madieu Williams, two of the unit's bright spots over the past few seasons, are playing elsewhere in '08. Keith Rivers and Antwan Odom should be nice additions, but won't be enough. Look for the Bengals to win 7-9 games, not enough in the loaded AFC.

Oakland Raiders: Al Davis opened up his wallet to attract some top-flight talent. As much as I love JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden, the Silver and Black will likely need a year to gel before making a playoff run in the crowded AFC.

Buffalo Bills: This may cause my FOXSports.com colleague Adam Schein to throw a tantrum, but I don't see Buffalo making the playoffs this season. Make it 10 straight years without a postseason berth for the Bills.

St. Louis Rams: The Rams started last season 1-8 and never quite recovered as injuries killed their season. They're all healthy now. Unfortunately, they have one of the hardest first two months of any NFL schedule you'll ever see. In September and October, the Rams play games against the Seahawks (six straight losses), Giants, Patriots, Cowboys, Redskins, Eagles and Bills. Good luck with that.

Chicago Bears: Though I must say the offense looked pretty solid against San Francisco on Thursday, it'll be an uphill battle all season. With "Ort-man" still at quarterback, some unproven entities at running back and receiver, and a spotty offensive line, scoring won't be easy. As great as the defense is on paper, it's a unit that finished 27th in the league last season. Chicago will be mediocre again in '08.

Really intriguing but not happening either

New York Jets: All the shiny new parts, Mr. Favre, a fan base all fired up ... the pieces seem to be in place. But the AFC is just too loaded for the Jets to return to the playoffs. For as much as the defense re-invented itself with the additions of Jenkins, Gholston, Pace, and Lowery, there are still some question marks. Intriguing squad, but not one destined for the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers: The name J.T. O'Sullivan has "sleeper team" quarterback all over it, and I love the mix of young contributors and veteran leaders. But San Francisco likely isn't quite there yet. But again, really intriguing.

Carolina Panthers: After going to the NFC Championship game twice in a three-year span, the Panthers finished 8-8 and 7-9 the past two seasons. Jake Delhomme is healthy and Carolina could very well be on the verge to get back to the playoffs. I just don't see it happening. The Magic 8 ball has them going 8-8 again, but that won't be enough.

Arizona Cardinals: Despite being the oldest franchise in the NFL, the Cardinals have played in just seven postseason games in their history. They haven't seen the playoffs since 1998 so there's a lot of stuff working against them here. But they've got a sizzling offense — with or without Anquan Boldin — and a vastly improved defense, making them pretty interesting for the '08 season. As always, they'll make a run at it only to fall just short in the end. Nothing new for Cards fans — all 10 of them.

We're too sexy: This year's sleeper picks

Cleveland Browns: Just about every publication I've read has the Browns running away with the AFC North this year. That tells me that they won't. The squad I saw at Giants Stadium last Monday night isn't winning anything, that's for sure. Simply too many people are picking the Browns for them to stand a chance.

Minnesota Vikings: Everyone's sexy sleeper pick out of the NFC, the Vikes are the preseason favorites in the NFC North. Too much hype. What's a non-Vikings, non-Bears, non-Lions postseason mean? The Aaron Rodgers-led Packers are winning the NFC North. Sorry, Vikes fans.

The non-sleeper sleepers

Philadelphia Eagles: After a year off, the Eagles return to the playoffs. Ho hum.
New Orleans Saints: Don't be shocked if Drew Brees leads the league in passing again this season. Shockey, Vilma and Sedrick Ellis are fabulous additions to an already strong team. Saints recapture that NFC South crown in '08.
Denver Broncos: Cutler and Co. will put up huge numbers on offense, overcoming a shaky defense to sneak back into the playoff picture. I erroneously tabbed Cutler as last year's darkhorse MVP pick. I was a season early on that, and 2008 will be his big breakout year. And watch out for Eddie Royal, a nasty player out of Virginia Tech.
Your official 2008 sleeper pick

Houston Texans: Ah, the process of elimination! In their six years as an NFL franchise, the Texans have yet to qualify for the NFL playoffs. The 2008 version is their most talented squad yet and if healthy, should be downright lethal. The defensive line is loaded with first-round talent, and though the secondary is one of the league's shakiest without Dunta Robinson, the defense should be OK. The offense, and especially the running game with Alex Gibbs on staff, will be one of the league's most exciting. Houston plays four playoff teams from '07 in its first five games. If the Texans can win two of those 5 games and come out 3-3 in the AFC South this season (possible!), they're your sleeper team of '08. Pencil them in for the playoffs ... and then forget I ever mentioned it.
Summing it all up

After accounting for the sleepers and the holdover playoff teams from 2007, here's how the postseason lineup should shake out:
NFC East champions: Dallas Cowboys
NFC South champions: New Orleans Saints
NFC West champions: Seattle Seahawks
NFC North champions: Green Bay Packers
NFC wildcard: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC wildcard: New York Giants
AFC East champions: New England Patriots
AFC South champions: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West champions: San Diego Chargers
AFC North champions: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC wildcard: Denver Broncos
AFC wildcard: Houston Texans

2007 teams on the outside looking in: Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars.
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[InChiefsHeaven]

We may very well be worse than Miami...but then again, we could go 500 this season as well...we'll start getting our answers this Sunday...

[The Franchise]

I think Eddie Royal might do something decent this year. I have him as my WR6 on my fantasy team. If he doesn't pan out....no big deal....it's a wasted 18th round pick. If he turns out to be good.....even better.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I can see why people have jumped on Denver's bandwagon, at least offensively.

But people are nuts if they think they're a playoff team. Too much power in the AFC, and their defense might end up being worse than the Chiefs defense of the DV era...

[Pablo]

nobody who has seen cutler is going to pick him to be a great QBNobody?

C'mon. If we had drafted Cutler we'd be annointing him as the second coming of Christ by now.

[Tribal Warfare]

Nobody?

C'mon. If we had drafted Cutler we'd be annointing him as the second coming of Christ by now.



Nope that goes to Matt F*CKIN "Football Jesus" Ryan bitch!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bobbything]

I can see why people have jumped on Denver's bandwagon, at least offensively.

But people are nuts if they think they're a playoff team. Too much power in the AFC, and their defense might end up being worse than the Chiefs defense of the DV era...
I dunno...

IIRC, the AFC West has the easiest schedule in the whole league. So, it's possible that another West team gets a WC. I don't see anyone (in the West) other than the Donks grabbing that spot.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I dunno...

IIRC, the AFC West has the easiest schedule in the whole league. So, it's possible that another West team gets a WC. I don't see anyone (in the West) other than the Donks grabbing that spot.

Possible?

Absolutely.

Likely?

Not unless several of the following teams really crash and burn this year:

NE
SD
Indy
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Houston
Jets
Cleveland

All these teams are more complete teams than Denver, IMO.

[ChiefsCountry]

Denver, Oakland and us are all on the same level of suckage right now.

[PunkinDrublic]

I don't get it? Denver didn't do shit last year but somehow they are good enough to make the playoffs this year? Why do they get to be on Monday night football what did they do to distinguish themselves to warrant that?

[InChiefsHeaven]

I don't get it? Denver didn't do shit last year but somehow they are good enough to make the playoffs this year? Why do they get to be on Monday night football what did they do to distinguish themselves to warrant that?

...twice by the way.:shake:

Donks have been getting their dicks sucked by the league for many seasons now, and have not done much to show for it...