Crushing the flawed argument of trading your best players. Absolutely crushing it.

[Rain Man]

As a review for those of you who were asleep in the back of the room, a discussion arose about whether it was a good idea to trade Tony Gonzalez. The thread is here: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=194032&highlight=payton.

During the course of this thread, a boisterous discussion ensued about whether it was stupid to trade your best players for mid-round picks (voiced by myself, who was once voted the Greatest Planeteer of All Time, and several others), or whether it was smart to do so (voiced by a few planeteers who will doubtless bow their heads and apologize for their opinions after reading this thread).

As part of the discussion, I was asked to provide examples where it was a bad idea for teams to trade their senior iconic player for a mid-round pick while "rebuilding".

I thought about this and rather quickly came to the conclusion that it's such a stupid move that it's rarely done, and finding examples would be difficult. Therefore, I embarked on a scientific experiment.

I selected a random year that was in the free agent era, and that was long enough ago that the careers of the players in question are pretty much done. That year was 1997, and I would be delighted to repeat the experiment for other years as time allows.

I then selected the 6 worst teams of 1997, based on win-loss record. In alphabetical order, those teams are:

Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Chicago Bears (4-12)
Indianapolis Colts (3-13)
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
San Diego Chargers (4-12)
St. Louis Rams (5-11)

I then selected the 6 best teams of 1997, based on win-loss record. In alphabetical order, those teams are:

Denver Broncos (12-4, albeit with salary cap violations)
Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (13-3, and I'm really depressed right now)
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Okay, let's assume that the WORST teams decide to trade their senior iconic player to the BEST teams in exchange for a third-round pick. The best teams are trying to make a run, and the worst teams are "rebuilding" with extra third-round picks, based on the argument set forth that "rebuilding teams stock their lineups with mid-round picks."

For randomness' sake, we'll just go with alphabetical order, so the Cardinals trade with the Broncos (on the list despite their salary cap violations), the Bears trade with the Packers, and so on. That makes for a fair and unbiased simulation.

Okay? Ready, set, go.

It's a hot Thursday in Phoenix, and Vince Tobin's Cardinals are talking trade with the Broncos' Mike Shanahan. The Cardinals' iconic player is cornerback Aeneas Williams, who has completed his 7th season and will turn 30 next season. The Cardinals are "rebuilding", so who wants a 30 year-old cornerback? They trade him for the Broncos 3rd round pick in 1998.

(While Williams is 29 this season, he's clearly the team's icon, and the Cards have 5 starters over 30 this season, only one of whom, Lomas Brown, ever made the pro bowl. (Eric Hill, Rob Selby, Joe Wolf, Pat Carter, and Lomas Brown). It was Brown's second season with the Cardinals after 11 years with Detroit, and he had made 7 pro bowls prior to that season. While it would be impossible to say he was a team icon, one could conceivably make the trade with him instead of Aeneas if one was really argumentative about defending one's completely and utterly flawed strategy of trading good players for mid-round draft picks.

The winds are blowing off Lake Michigan, and Bears coach Dave Wannstedt is "rebuilding". He looks at his roster for iconic older players that he can trade for mid-round draft picks. He has only four starters age 30 or older, none of whom have ever made a pro bowl: Erik Kramer, Keith Jennings, Andy Heck, and John Mangum. None of those players are even close to iconic.

The closest thing he's got is either RT "Big Cat Williams", who will turn 30 next year, or MLB Bryan Cox, also about to turn 30. Cox is only in his 3rd year with the team, but has 3 pro bowls with Miami. Williams has never made the pro bowl, but is solid. He offers either of them to the Packers and Mike Holmgren for their 3rd round choice.

In the empty Hoosierdome, Lindy Infante ponders his team's future and "rebuilding". He decides to pursue the flawed strategy of trading his older iconic players for mid-round draft picks. But who to trade?

He looks at his older starters. Who's a local icon? Robert Blackmon is 30, but a journeyman in his first year at Indy. Tony Bennett, 30, had a few good years, but no pro bowls. No one will pay anything for 31 year-old Tony Mandarich and Doug Widell, and QB Jim Harbaugh is 34.

Eh. Harbaugh made the pro bowl once and won a playoff game or two. Let's assume that he can get a third-rounder for Harbaugh from the powerhouse Jaguars, coached by Tom Coughlin.

Amidst the fires and brimstone of the damned, Joe Bugel ponders his future with Big Al's Raiders. Time to cast off the old and get some good mid-round draft picks. He peruses his roster. He's got an old roster: Jeff George, Derrick Fenner, Harvey Williams, Steve Wisniewski, and Anthony Smith are all 30. Terry McDaniel is 32, and the stupid Chiefs let Albert Lewis go with a lot of gas left in the tank, though he's 37 now. But who's an older icon with trade value? Who's an older icon?

Wait! There! On the roster! 31 year-old Tim Brown. By the time the "rebuild" is done, he'll be gone, and he's got trade value. Yeah, let's send him to the Chiefs and get their third-round pick in return. What a deal! (Rain Man note: could you possibly find a better corrolary to the Tony G. situation?) He calls Marty Schottenheimer.

Kevin Gilbride is looking to "rebuild" in San Diego. His old guys are Stan Humprhies (32), Tony Martin (32), Frank Hartley (30), Raleigh MacKenzie (34), William Fuller (35), Shawn Lee (31), Kurt Gouveia (33), and Dwayne Harper (31). None of those guys are icons in San Diego. The best trade bait he's got in that group is Tony Martin, a 32 year-old wide receiver who made the pro bowl in 1996. He ships Martin to Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh for the Steelers' third-round pick.

Last but not least, a tear forms in Dick Vermeil's eye as he decides to part with a veteran in St. Louis. Perusing his roster, he sees only two players over 30 on his roster: Ironhead Heyward (31) and Leslie O'Neal (33). Obviously, neither are iconic players for the Rams, but Leslie O'Neal had six pro bowls for the Chargers. He gives Steve Mariucci a call in San Franciso, and Mooch gives him a third-round pick.


Draft day rolls around, and the "rebuilding" coaches - Tobin, Wannstedt, Infante, Bugel, Gilbride, and Vermeil - know that the "powerhouse" coaches got there for a reason. So they steal their trade partners' draft sheets and draft the players who would've been selected by the powerhouses if the trades hadn't occurred.

Let's see how it turned out:

Arizona/Denver Trade

Arizona gave up Aeneas Williams, who would play for 7 more years with 96 starts, 17 interceptions and 4 pro bowls.
In return, Arizona drafts Brian Griese, who would play for at least 11 years (still active), with 78 starts, 19,171 passing yards (so far) and 1 pro bowl.

(If you want to be argumentative, Lomas Brown played 5 more years with 58 starts.)

Chicago/Green Bay Trade

On his 30th birthday, "Big Cat" Williams leaves Chicago and plays for the Packers for 5 more years, with 80 starts and 1 pro bowl.
In return, Chicago gets defensive end Jonathan Brown, who plays 2 years and never makes a start.

Indianapolis/Jacksonville Trade

Jim Harbaugh bids Indianapolis adieu, and plays for 3 more years with 29 starts and 6,016 passing yards in Jacksonville.
In his place, Indy gets QB Jonathan Quinn, who plays for 5 years, gets 6 starts, and throws for 1,161 passing yards.

Kansas City/Oakland Trade

The ancient Tim Brown leaves the rebuilding project and heads to powerhouse Kansas City. He plays for 7 more years, makes 99 starts, picks up an additional 6,346 receiving yards, and appears in 2 pro bowls for the Chiefs.
In return, the "rebuilding" Raiders get the indomitable Rashan Shehee, who plays 2 years, gets 5 starts, and puts up 295 career rushing yards.

San Diego/Pittsburgh Trade

Tony Martin leaves the "rebuilding" Chargers and heads to Pittsburgh, where he plays 4 more years with 43 starts and 3,159 receiving yards.
In return, San Diego gets offensive tackle Chris Conrad, who makes 4 starts in 2 years before putting his sports communications degree to work at Geico.

St. Louis/San Francisco Trade

An aged Leslie O'Neal heads to San Francisco, where he plays 2 more years with 23 starts and 10 sacks.
In return, St. Louis drafts offensive tackle Chris Ruhman, who makes 2 starts in 2 career seasons.

And that, my friends, is why you should never trade a 32 year-old 10-time pro bowler for a third-round draft choice.

For those of you who wish to see it, I will be displaying my debate opponents' heads on a stick in the front lobby from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. tomorrow. Punch will be served.

[the Talking Can]

Tony is going to play 1 more year...maybe...for the Chiefs...he has made perfectly clear that he has no desire to be here, and will retire if not traded...

you take a damn 3rd for a player who has no future with your team...when you are supposedly rebuilding, that is...


nothing else is relevant in discussing the trade

sorry it wasn't 5000 words

[Hammock Parties]

Tim Brown also played in a fucking Super Bowl.

[Rain Man]

So talking can is on record that he wants the next Chris Conrad or Chris Ruhman over Tony Gonzalez, despite all facts pointing to the opposite conclusion. Thank you for playing, and please exit to the left, ensuring that you have all your belongings, and enjoy the rest of your day in Fantasyland.

[Rain Man]

Other than token resistance from talking can, I have now completely shut the door on this fallacious argument. Dead debate bodies lie in my wake, my opponents speechlessly rock back and forth at the horror that they have endured. Women and children run to me with flowers and kisses. All is well, and the unspeakable possibility of trading our stars for naught has been abolished from the earth. Let it never rise again.

[Hammock Parties]

You should continue your research and find a team that struck it rich by trading their Tony Gonzalez.

[ClevelandBronco]

Gonzo sells tickets for the Chiefs.

That's the story.

It's a short story, but it's a story.

[Skip Towne]

Looks like you won that one.

[teedubya]

I don't seem to remember the Tim Brown KC Chiefs years.

[PastorMikH]

My ADD kicked in around the colored writing. Wouldn't it have just been easier to, say, list all the 3rd round draft picks the Chiefs have picked for the last 10 years and ask which of them is of comparable value to TG?

[orange]

Your carefully contrived, totally artificial, pulled-out-your-ass-to-"prove"-your-point trades mean absolutely nothing. Why not deal with reality - real trades that happened and their results.

Joe Namath?
Johnny Unitas?
O J Simpson?


Or one near-and-dear to Chiefs-fans' hearts:

Joe Montana for draft picks - who got the better end of THAT deal?

[Bob Dole]

Joe Montana for draft picks - who got the better end of THAT deal?

Yeah...because we have a tight end version of Steve Young on our roster.

[Hammock Parties]

lawl

http://i225.photobucket.com/albums/dd281/83evans/TG.jpg

[L.A. Chieffan]

Rainman and FAX should have their own nationally syndicated radio show.

[Mecca]

This is what we call, being attached to a player. I think we see that with some of the fans of this franchise because we've never won anything so we're attached to the players.

[HemiEd]

This is what we call, being attached to a player. I think we see that with some of the fans of this franchise because we've never won anything so we're attached to the players.

Hilarious response, don't let the clear cut facts get in the way.

Yes, building through the draft is probably the best, in the long run. I contend, the "2008draft day super bowl" for the Chiefs, has many of you clammoring for another one.

But for people to feel getting rid of Pro Bowl players, that only come along very very seldom, for a third round pick is nuts.

Tony could possibly play 3 or 4 more years, I have heard his emotional statements before, similar to this one year thing.

[Mecca]

The Dolphins did this and they did it with a much more valuable position than TE...

I'm sorry people can love TG all they want but he's a 32 year old man playing a position that isn't all that valuable.

[beach tribe]

Hilarious response, don't let the clear cut facts get in the way.

Yes, building through the draft is probably the best, in the long run. I contend, the "2008draft day super bowl" for the Chiefs, has many of you clammoring for another one.

But for people to feel getting rid of Pro Bowl players, that only come along very very seldom, for a third round pick is nuts.

Tony could possibly play 3 or 4 more years, I have heard his emotional statements before, similar to this one year thing.

I'm pretty sure if we make some moves this off-season that look like we migh tbe able to turn it around, Tony may not force a trade. Then if we make progress on the field in 2009 that indicates we could be a PO team in 2010. Tony will keep playing. He's just extremely frustrated, and I don't blame him, but a little hope of winning a PO game would change everything.

[KCUnited]

No way Tony "falls" for this twice. I believe he plays 11 more games with the Chiefs and demands a trade in the offseason. If we get a 3rd, all is forgiven, but IMO TG's highest trade value was at 2:59 pm on Tuesday. If TG plays for KC in 2009, he will retire a Chief on a 5-11 team.

[orange]

Yeah...because we have a tight end version of Steve Young on our roster.

You just DRAFTED a tight end - you remember - you TRADED YOUR BEST PLAYER to get the pick.

Does Cottam suck?


Crushing the flawed argument of trading your best players. Absolutely crushing it.

[HemiEd]

I'm pretty sure if we make some moves this off-season that look like we migh tbe able to turn it around, Tony may not force a trade. Then if we make progress on the field in 2009 that indicates we could be a PO team in 2010. Tony will keep playing. He's just extremely frustrated, and I don't blame him, but a little hope of winning a PO game would change everything.

That is exactly how I read it as well. The guy is in great shape and takes care of himself. He is also driven to be the best at what he does. Hang on to him Carl!

[PastorMikH]

You just DRAFTED a tight end - you remember - you TRADED YOUR BEST PLAYER to get the pick.

Does Cottam suck?


We got Brandon Albert, Jamall Charles, and DeJuan Morgan from the Allen trade. Cottom's pick came from the Lions on a draft pick trade.



Honestly, from looking at what Allen's done so far, I'm thinking a potential solid RB and a solid LT (if he can stay healthy), we may have actually come out pretty good on the trade.

[Rain Man]

Your carefully contrived, totally artificial, pulled-out-your-ass-to-"prove"-your-point trades mean absolutely nothing. Why not deal with reality - real trades that happened and their results.

Joe Namath?
Johnny Unitas?
O J Simpson?


Or one near-and-dear to Chiefs-fans' hearts:

Joe Montana for draft picks - who got the better end of THAT deal?


According to this article, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE3DE1331F932A15757C0A965958260, the Chiefs traded the 18th pick of the 1st round in 1993.
In return, the Chiefs got Joe Montana, safety David Whitmore, and a third-round pick that was used to draft Chris Penn.

The 49ers apparently traded the pick to the Cardinals, who used it to draft offensive tackle Earnest Dye. Dye played for five years, making 24 starts in that time.

The Chiefs, in return, got:

Montana played for 2 seasons for the Chiefs, starting 25 games and throwing for 5,427 yards. He appeared in 1 pro bowl. He provided two of the most exciting moments in Chiefs history with his last-second wins in the playoffs at Pittsburgh and on Monday Night Football against the hated Broncos, who cheated on the salary cap.

Whitmore started 16 games in 2 seasons for the Chiefs with 129 tackles and 6 forced fumbles before actually going to Philadelphia for one season.

Chris Penn started 16 games for the Chiefs in 3 years, with 664 total receiving yards. He left the Chiefs and played another three years in Chicago and San Diego.

So [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] please elaborate [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] on your argument [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] that [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] the Chiefs got the bad end of the deal [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] on this trade [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle] [slamming orange's head against the turnbuckle].

[Rain Man]

This is what we call, being attached to a player. I think we see that with some of the fans of this franchise because we've never won anything so we're attached to the players.

The thing that my battered and bloodied opponents don't understand is that one must have good players to have a good team. Too many people think that having draft choices means having a good team, and they don't discount the fact that a majority of draft choices don't work out. Trading two years of good production and mentoring by a Hall of Fame player in exchange for two years of special teams play by a backup tackle is not a good trade. It's not a good trade.

Not.

A.

Good.

Trade.

[whoman69]

Comparing it to the Allen trade is not fair because that was done in the offseason. During the offseason you have the option of being able to try to replace that player. Allen also got us a first round selection. This team has enough problems on offense without taking away one of its few weapons. I've never been a fan of throwing up a surrender flag. Trading during a season unless there is a ready replacement is just idiocy. If we trade Tony now we will have ZERO percent chance of winning another game. We might have to go the the wing T again. I think there's talent on this team that is not being utilized right now because of the system we have. I also believe we left a lot of holes during the offseason. I truly believe the Chiefs could be a playoff team next year if they spend some cap money to fill the holes and have another good draft year. All that is out the window if Herm is back though.

[beach tribe]

I have to say RM, I was kind of thinking this trade would be the best thing, but since you have choke slamed, rock bottomed, powerbomed, and stone cold stunned anyone who has tried to prove you wrong with actual examples from the past, and also some other hypothetical dropkicks. I agree with you completely.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Herschel Walker---> Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, Russell Maryland.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Javon Walker-->Greg Jennings.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Chris Chambers--->Chad Henne.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Ricky Williams--The Saints entire draft.

[Radar Chief]

Holy overkill! :eek:
If I may say so without sounding homoerotic, that’s an impressive poll you’ve got there, Rainman. ;)

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Had the Rams been able to draft, they could have turned Dick Vermeil into one of the following guys who went in the next ten picks:

Kris Jenkins, Matt Light, Aaron Schobel

They could have turned Trent Green into the following:

Marcus Stroud, Santana Moss, Steve Hutchinson, Casey Hampton, Nate Clements, Reggie Wayne.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Wow.

Hours and hours of research basically made irrelevant in a 15 minute window.

ROFL

['Hamas' Jenkins]

There's nothing quite like a butthurt Rainman using ridiculous selection bias to prove a point

ROFL.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Wow.

Hours and hours of research basically made irrelevant in a 15 minute window.

ROFL

It's obvious to me that Rain Man just doesn't understand what the draft is all about.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I was also a huge fan of the trades for "Godzilla" Wayne Simmons, John Welbourne, Patrick Surtain, and Carlos Hall.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Matt Schaub for Justin Blalock, what turned into Sam Baker, 50 million bucks of cap space, and moving up from 10 to 8 in the '07 draft.

[Dave Lane]

How about a study of Older players traded for draft picks from 10 years ago. Seems like it would be an even bigger disparity.

Dave

[Stewie]

Good lawd. What is this all about (no, I really don't care so don't answer) and who has this much time?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Good lawd. What is this all about and who has this much time?

DaFace was running the office while Kevin did 3 days worth of pointless research.

[Rain Man]

Mein gott, are they still getting up? I've slammed them into turnbuckles, hit them with folding chairs, thrown them on the announcers table, and even applied a strategic Boston Crab, and they're still getting up and staggering around the ring spouting nonsense.

Hamas is now just spouting random trades that have nothing to do with the debate, and equating trades for journeymen veterans like John Welbourn with trading ten-time pro bowlers. Onthewarpath is encouraging him to keep charging while I go get another folding chair to hit him with. Why isn't the ref stopping this fight?

[Rain Man]

There's nothing quite like a butthurt Rainman using ridiculous selection bias to prove a point

ROFL.

Selection bias? SELECTION BIAS? It was a random controlled experiment. It's being published in Science. I don't want to count my eggs before they're hatched, but I got a call from the Nobel Committee asking how to spell my name. This is an experiment that slams the door on the pseudoscience and entrails-reading in which you and your fellow witch doctors engage. I am like Galileo, standing tall before my accusers and refusing to back down (though he did, but hey, that makes me even better than him).

I cannot, I will not, and I shall not back down from the truth, and it is my life's mission to bring enlightenment to your medieval lead-into-gold village.

[Rain Man]

In all seriousness, does anyone know of an NFL trade database? In this age of the Internet, it seems like there should be one, but I've never seen it.

[Hammock Parties]

In all seriousness, does anyone know of an NFL trade database? In this age of the Internet, it seems like there should be one, but I've never seen it.

Your best bet is to find a bunch of great players who played for multiple teams, then check their wiki entries. Most of them will mention trades.

Eric Dickerson, for example.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Rain Man was confident in his experiment, just asking us to bring it. Ok then:

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/-RFO4U9yFvI&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/-RFO4U9yFvI&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[Rain Man]

Okay, so the research question as framed by my debate opponents is about trading multiple pro bowl players who are not young. So let's talk about trades involving multiple pro bowlers who were 29 years old or older. And since my Walter Payton example elicited squeals of mercy about being too old an example (though my opposition then mentioned Joe Namath and Johnny Unitas, but we'll let that go), let's think about players who were active in 1988 or later. Anyone know how to find that type of information?

Multiple pro bowls
Traded
29+
Trade occurred in 1988 or later

[Rain Man]

Rain Man was confident in his experiment, just asking us to bring it. Ok then:



Why did that one guy invite the other one to hit him with the chair? That didn't seem like a good strategy.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Why did that one guy invite the other one to hit him with the chair? That didn't seem like a good strategy.

Because he was the world's most dangerous man. Unfortunately, he wasn't dangerouser than a chair.

[Rain Man]

Because he was the world's most dangerous man. Unfortunately, he wasn't dangerouser than a chair.

We should give chairs to our soldiers. They seem like pretty potent weapons, and you can sit on them when you're resting out on patrol. It seems like a much better idea than sitting on a bayonet.

[Smed1065]

Selection bias? SELECTION BIAS? It was a random controlled experiment. It's being published in Science. I don't want to count my eggs before they're hatched, but I got a call from the Nobel Committee asking how to spell my name. This is an experiment that slams the door on the pseudoscience and entrails-reading in which you and your fellow witch doctors engage. I am like Galileo, standing tall before my accusers and refusing to back down (though he did, but hey, that makes me even better than him).

I cannot, I will not, and I shall not back down from the truth, and it is my life's mission to bring enlightenment to your medieval lead-into-gold village.

Well I won't back down
No I won't back down
You can stand me up at the gates of hell
But I won't back down

No I'll stand my ground, won't be turned around
And I'll keep this world from draggin me down
gonna stand my ground
... and I won't back down

[orange]

According to this article, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE3DE1331F932A15757C0A965958260, the Chiefs traded the 18th pick of the 1st round in 1993.
In return, the Chiefs got Joe Montana, safety David Whitmore, and a third-round pick that was used to draft Chris Penn.

The 49ers apparently traded the pick to the Cardinals, who used it to draft offensive tackle Earnest Dye. Dye played for five years, making 24 starts in that time.

The Chiefs, in return, got:

... 400 words of idiotic drivel redacted...

WRONG.

SO VERY WRONG.

Earnest Dye doesn't enter into it at all. He was never a 49er, and never would have been a 49er.

No. The 49ers got DANA STUBBLEFIELD for that Chiefs pick. source: http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/1993.htm

They also got a third-rounder they turned into Earl Dotson - another scrub just like the two scrubs the Chiefs also got.

The trade basically was Joe Montana (25 games) for Dana Stubblefield. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_Stubblefield




You want to try to evaluate that trade again - this time with REAL FACTS?!


p.s. You can thank me for that source - if you can get your balls out of your mouth long enough to take a breath.

[orange]

Okay, so the research question as framed by my debate opponents is about trading multiple pro bowl players who are not young. So let's talk about trades involving multiple pro bowlers who were 29 years old or older. And since my Walter Payton example elicited squeals of mercy about being too old an example (though my opposition then mentioned Joe Namath and Johnny Unitas, but we'll let that go), let's think about players who were active in 1988 or later. Anyone know how to find that type of information?

Multiple pro bowls
Traded
29+
Trade occurred in 1988 or later


Here's a recent one. Trent Green to Miami.
Who got the better end of that one?

[Iowanian]

Wow...bRainman is really giving it to Hamas....

<embed src="http://www.ebaumsworld.com/mediaplayer.swf" flashvars="pageurl=http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/1003086/&file=http://media.ebaumsworld.com/2008/10/1003086/bill2.flv&mediaid=1003086&title=Little Bill O&#39;Reilly Part 2&tags=kids,news,tv,skit&description=Little Bill battles Barney Frank on the Factor!&displayheight=325&backcolor=0x0d0d0d&lightoclor=0x336699&frontcolor=0xcccccc&image=http://media.ebaumsworld.com/2008/10/1003086/bill2.jpg" wmode="transparent" loop="false" menu="false" quality="high" bgcolor="#ffffff" width="425" height="345" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" />

[Rain Man]

WRONG.

SO VERY WRONG.

Earnest Dye doesn't enter into it at all. He was never a 49er, and never would have been a 49er.

No. The 49ers got DANA STUBBLEFIELD for that Chiefs pick. source: http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/1993.htm

They also got a third-rounder they turned into Earl Dotson - another scrub just like the two scrubs the Chiefs also got.

The trade basically was Joe Montana (25 games) for Dana Stubblefield. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_Stubblefield




You want to try to evaluate that trade again - this time with REAL FACTS?!


p.s. You can thank me for that source - if you can get your balls out of your mouth long enough to take a breath.

You're really overestimating my flexibility.

And you're mistakenly (i.e., WRONGLY, VERY WRONGLY) evaluating the 49ers' trade with the Cardinals. This isn't a discussion about the value of trading down. The Chiefs traded the 49ers the 18th pick in the draft. The 18th pick in the draft was used to draft Earnest Dye. If the 49ers made a second independent trade with a third team, that's their own business and is completely independent. Go stand in the corner for a while and think about it. Ten minutes.

And nice source, by the way.

[Rain Man]

Here's a recent one. Trent Green to Miami.
Who got the better end of that one?

This isn't a scavenger hunt to find exceptions to the rule (and by the way, Trent has more starts at quarterback since that trade than Brandon Carr has at cornerback, so even that's not a win for you at this point). Use your source there and give me every trade of a multiple pro bowler age 29+, and let's calculate the numbers. And get those things out of your mouth - that's disgusting.

[Nightfyre]

You're really overestimating my flexibility.

And you're mistakenly (i.e., WRONGLY, VERY WRONGLY) evaluating the 49ers' trade with the Cardinals. This isn't a discussion about the value of trading down. The Chiefs traded the 49ers the 18th pick in the draft. The 18th pick in the draft was used to draft Earnest Dye. If the 49ers made a second independent trade with a third team, that's their own business and is completely independent. Go stand in the corner for a while and think about it. Ten minutes.

And nice source, by the way.
But it IS related to the chiefs as it was an opportunity cost. Had the Chiefs not made the trade for Montana, they could have picked up the same deal as the 9ers. Just sayin'.

[orange]

The 49ers gave up Joe Montana and got Dana Stubblefield and some other considerations. The 49ers got rid of their best player. And the 49ers got better as a result. The Cardinals and Saints are only innocent victims, IRRELEVANT to the discussion of whether trading your best (old) player is a good move.

The 49ers targeted Stubblefield. He's the guy they would have taken at 18... he's the guy they would have taken at 20... but they DIDN'T HAVE TO. You can't hold their brilliance against them.

[Rain Man]

Hey, orange's site is pretty good. Let's start analyzing all trades of individual players for mid-round picks (3rd through 5th rounds) starting in 1988. Let me know if I miss anyboday.


1. > Patriots — Traded Darryl Haley to Buccaneers for 1988 fourth round pick (#87-Tim Goad) on 7/27/87. Daryl Haley never played for the Bucs, so I don't know what happened there. Tim Goad started 123 games at nose tackle. Winner: Rebuilding Team.

[Rain Man]

2. > Packers — Traded James Lofton to Raiders for 1987 third round pick (#71-Frankie Neal), 1988 fourth round pick (#88-Rollin Putzier) on 4/14/87. Lofton played 6 more years with roughly 3,500 yards and 1 pro bowl. Frankie Neal had 3 starts in a 1 year career, and Rollin Putzier had no starts in a 2-year career. Winner: Powerhouse Team.

[Rain Man]

3. > Chargers — Traded Pete Holohan to Rams for 1988 fourth round pick (#91-Joe Campbell) on 4/24/88. Holohan played 5 more years with 28 starts and 192 receptions. Joe Campbell had 0 starts in 2 years. Winner: Powerhouse team.

[Rain Man]

4. > Chiefs — Traded Todd Blackledge to Steelers for 1988 fourth round pick (probably #96-J.R. Ambrose) on 3/29/88. Blackledge, believe it or not, played 2 more years with 5 starts. As far as I can tell, Ambrose didn't make the team. Winner: Powerhouse team.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Okay, so the research question as framed by my debate opponents is about trading multiple pro bowl players who are not young. So let's talk about trades involving multiple pro bowlers who were 29 years old or older. And since my Walter Payton example elicited squeals of mercy about being too old an example (though my opposition then mentioned Joe Namath and Johnny Unitas, but we'll let that go), let's think about players who were active in 1988 or later. Anyone know how to find that type of information?

Multiple pro bowls
Traded
29+
Trade occurred in 1988 or later

So, you don't feel like using say... a 27 year old running back? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade)
Why didn't a 27 year old, Pro Bowler named Javon Walker work for you?
Why not include trades of multiple picks for one player, like say Eli Manning for what became Phillip Rivers, Merriman, and Nate Kaeding?

[Rain Man]

5. > Patriots — Traded Rich Gannon to Vikings for 1988 fourth round pick (#97-Sammy Martin) on 5/6/87. Gannon played 16 more years, with 132 starts, a gazillion yards, an MVP and everything else. Sammy Martin started 1 game during a four-year career. Winner: Powerhouse team.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

How about Pat Swilling for Willie Roaf and Lorenzo Neal Rain Man? Did the Saints like that trade?

[Rain Man]

So, you don't feel like using say... a 27 year old running back? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade)
Why didn't a 27 year old, Pro Bowler named Javon Walker work for you?
Why not include trades of multiple picks for one player, like say Eli Manning for what became Phillip Rivers, Merriman, and Nate Kaeding?

If you want to lower the age, that's fine with me. It makes me even more right, if such a thing is possible. In my soon-to-be-famous Orange Analysis, I'm just reporting all the trades right now regardless of age. We can sort them out later, but right now my philosophy has won 80 percent of the matchups, including two that were mindblowing wins.

And the Manning trade is irrelevant because they were all rookies. For all practical purposes, that was a trade of draft picks.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

If you want to lower the age, that's fine with me. It makes me even more right, if such a thing is possible. In my soon-to-be-famous Orange Analysis, I'm just reporting all the trades right now regardless of age. We can sort them out later, but right now my philosophy has won 80 percent of the matchups, including two that were mindblowing wins.

And the Manning trade is irrelevant because they were all rookies. For all practical purposes, that was a trade of draft picks.

It's perfectly relevant, It's a trade of a player--Eli Manning, for three draft picks--all of whom are impact/Pro Bowl players. Everyone knew Manning was going #1, which is why the Chargers drafted him there.

Same thing for the LT-Vick trade. Would you rather have Vick (consensus #1) or LT, Reche Caldwell, and Tim Dwight?

[Rain Man]

6. > Seahawks — Traded Ron Essink to Cowboys for 1988 fifth round pick (#120-Chris Gaines) on 8/25/87. Eh, this must be reported wrong. Essink retired in 1985. We'll throw this one out. Winner: Not Applicable.

6. > Cardinals — Traded Al Baker to Browns for 1988 fifth round pick (probably #132-Tony Jordan) on 9/3/87. Al Baker played three more seasons with 29 starts and 16 sacks. Tony Jordan had 10 starts in a two-year career. Winner: Powerhouse Team.

Scoring

Rain Man Philsophy: 5
Opponent Philosophy: 1

[Rain Man]

Hamas is desperately throwing out exceptions, the sweat beading on his brow. Meanwhile, I, Rain Man, defender of truth and justice, continue to bury him with an analysis worthy of the ages.

All of your exceptions will be included in the analysis as they arise, good sir. Recall, though, that player for player trades are not part of the discussion. The discussion is trading players for mid-round draft picks.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Let's make it simple for your Rain Man:

Would you rather have 2 years of Tony Gonzalez or Steve Slaton?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Do you think the Browns would have rather had the mid-rounder they gave up for Len Dawson, or Len Dawson?

[Rain Man]

That's it for 1988. Let's move into 1989.

7. > Patriots — Traded Stephen Starring to Buccaneers for 1989 third round pick (#63-Marv Cook) on 8/26/88. Starring never started for his new team and had 8 kickoff returns. Marv Cook started 77 games over 7 years. Winner: Rebuilding Team

Score:

RM: 5
Opp: 2

['Hamas' Jenkins]

FWIW, Rain Man, Gonzalez has more value than a fifth rounder--his value was clearly established as a third, so why you continue to use fifth rounders is beyond me--other than the fact that you get off on bullshit.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Daunte Culpepper for Miami's 2nd--which turned into Ryan Cook, currently Minnesota's starting right tackle.

Where is Culpepper again?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Travis Henry for 3rd Rounder Ashton Youboty, who is a starting CB for Buffalo

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Ashley Lelie for 3rd Rounder Ryan Harris, who is currently Denver's starting RT.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Kris Jenkins for 3rd Rounder Charles Godfrey, who as a rookie is starting at Free Safety for the team that just beat us 34-0.

[Rain Man]

My march of truth continues unabated, heading toward the Selma of Enlightenment despite the German Shepard of Hamas nipping at my heels.

8. > Cowboys — Traded Steve Wisniewski, 1989 sixth round pick (#140-Jeff Francis) to Raiders for 1989 second round pick (#39-Daryl Johnston), 1989 third round pick (#68-Rhondy Weston), 1989 fifth round pick (#119-Willis Crockett) on 4/23/89

This will be interesting.

Wisniewski - 13 years, 206 starts, 8 pro bowls
Francis - 1 year, 0 starts

Johnston - 11 years, 122 starts, 2 pro bowls
Weston - 1 year, 2 starts
Crockett - 1 year, 0 starts

Winner: Powerhouse Team

Score:

RM 6
Opp 2

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Lamar Gordon for 3rd Rounder OJ Atogwe, who is the Rams' starting FS and scored their only TD for them last week.

[ClevelandBronco]

I would have said Paul Warfield, but I see that Mike Phipps was drafted in the first round.

What the hell were Art Modell and Co. thinking?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

These are all in the last 3 years, FWIW.

I've said my piece, spent more than enough time in this thread. Continue with your endless harangue and intellectual masturbation, sir.

Lest we forget, you were the one poised on the ledge when we traded Allen.

[Rain Man]

9. > Seahawks — Traded Ron Heller to Eagles for 1989 fourth round pick (#103-James Henry) on 8/22/88. This one may be wrong, because I see a Heller that went from Tampa to Philly, but that one had 98 more starts in 7 years. James Henry apparently didn't make the team. Winner: Powerhouse Team.
Score:

RM 7
Opp 2

[Rain Man]

FWIW, Rain Man, Gonzalez has more value than a fifth rounder--his value was clearly established as a third, so why you continue to use fifth rounders is beyond me--other than the fact that you get off on bullshit.

We were discussing trading proven veterans for mid-rounders. It'll make it easier on me to eliminate the 5th-round trades, so I'm willing to eliminate them.

I rather enjoy this walk down memory lane. I haven't thought about most of these players in ages.

[TinyEvel]

Can't I just sit in here and watch other people give their opinions and just eat the free M&M's?

[stumppy]

I think Hamas just called you a doo doo head and said he was taking his ball and going home.

[L.A. Chieffan]

Can I still get my punch regardless of the outcome?

[Rain Man]

We aren't counting 5th rounders any more, but here's an interesting one from 1989: Tony Dorsett to the Broncos for a 5th round choice. Who do you think won that one? Whooooooooo?


Tony Dorsett rushed for 703 yards and 5 touchdowns for the Broncos, and added another 122 receiving yards.

The Cowboys drafted Jeff Roth, who didn't make their roster.

Winner? The team that got the veteran, of course. It's a wonder any team ever trades a veteran for a midround pick.

[Rain Man]

Can I still get my punch regardless of the outcome?

Can't I just sit in here and watch other people give their opinions and just eat the free M&M's?


M&Ms and punch for everyone. We're having a victory party!


I'm not meaning to brutalize you, Hamas, but the simple truth is that the odds always favor the team that gets the veteran. Sometimes a team can hit a home run or even a single or double by picking up a draft pick, but the veteran is a really safe bet.

Now, would I trade 32 year-old Tony G. for a 1st-round pick? Yeah, probably, though I'd be sad to see him go. The odds are better in that case, and 1st-rounders generally always hang around for three years. Not so with 3rd and 4th-rounders.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Rain Man:

Two final questions.

I'll ask again: Would you rather have what's left of Tony Gonzalez's career or all of Steve Slaton's or Jamaal Charles'.

Why is it, that after free agency and the new CBA, that all of these recent trades that I've pointed out (and you've ignored) seem to work out for the teams trading the player for the pick?

I'll listen off air so you can continue on your Lionel Barrymore like monologue.

[Rain Man]

I think Hamas just called you a doo doo head and said he was taking his ball and going home.

I think my work here is done.

[Rain Man]

Rain Man:

Two final questions.

I'll ask again: Would you rather have what's left of Tony Gonzalez's career or all of Steve Slaton's or Jamaal Charles'.

Why is it, that after free agency and the new CBA, that all of these recent trades that I've pointed out (and you've ignored) seem to work out for the teams trading the player for the pick?

I'll listen off air so you can continue on your Lionel Barrymore like monologue.


Aaaah! He won't die!

To be honest, in those cases I don't know yet. In all seriousness, Tony could have another 500 catches left in him. Look at Tim Brown and James Lofton. Slaton and Charles could be great, but they could also fizzle in another year. We all thought Blaylock had great potential for a few games back in the DV era. This is why I was going with the earlier time period.

My argument, which I probably haven't elocuted as well as I should have, is that there's a long tail on careers. Once you get to the stratosphere, there is a small core of elite players whose careers go on improbably long at a very high level. When you're as good as a Jerry Rice or a Tony Gonzalez or a Walter Payton or a James Lofton or a Will Shields, you have to throw the averages out the window. Those elite team icons are so good that they can play almost as long as they want. The only thing stopping them is desire. I seriously bet that Willie Roaf could take six months to get in shape and still win our left tackle job in a fair fight. Those ultra-elite players operate in a different universe under a different set of rules.

That's why I find the theory spurious that Tony Gonzalez is going to become a slug at age 33. At age 32 he's still outperforming at least 90 percent of his peers. He's different. He's one of the ... the ... the Highlanders of professional football, and there are others like him, which we all see but too often ignore the pattern. The only thing that could stop Tony's career at this point is perhaps a strong enough dislike of Carl Peterson that he truncates his career.

Having said that, I also think that even average veterans provide more value than a mid-round choice, on average. You have to have draft picks to catch the occasional lightning that is required to be a great team, and more draft picks give you more pulls on that slot machine, but trading a productive player for a mid-level pull on the slot machine is far more likely to produce a weaker team in both the short run and the long run. Anyone doing it has to be desperate.

You have been a worthy opponent in this debate. (Bowing deeply.)

[Mecca]

This thread has taught me something, even if you show Rainman how wrong he is, he will somehow try to say he's not by typing it in a nice way and throwing out some weird example.

[Rain Man]

This thread has taught me something, even if you show Rainman how wrong he is, he will somehow try to say he's not by typing it in a nice way and throwing out some weird example.


That's the same thing they said about Calvin Coolidge, and we had the Roaring Twenties under his administration.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

That's the same thing they said about Calvin Coolidge, and we had the Roaring Twenties under his administration.

Which turned out excellently.

[Rain Man]

Which turned out excellently.

Coolidge was a proven veteran, and the nation traded him for a draft pick that turned out to be Herbert Hoover. That is why you never trade the veteran.

Weimar? Nah, that Hitler kid is still on the board.