Rain Man
12-10-2008, 02:26 PM
I was thinking the other day about scouting disasters such as Ryan Sims and Junior Siavii, and wondering how these things happen. I realized that, while scouts want to do a good job, it's not like their life depends on it. They're going to go watch the games or the film and then head back to their Motel 6 or their studio apartment and drink heavily because they never made it to the NFL.
So it got me thinking about other ways that might be more foolproof methods of scouting. Then it hit me, the most simple and obvious answer in the world.
What population has the most riding on the success of a college prospect? It's not the scouts. It's not the college coaches. It's not even the player himself, since he's just playing the cards he's dealt.
The population most impacted is the girlfriend of the player.
Envision a college woman who wants to marry into money. She HAS to make the right choice. Her entire lifestyle is riding on her ability to select the player with the most earnings potential. She is therefore scouting the players on her campus with the utmost diligence to find the one who will make the most money.
So what are the variables here? I see the following:
1. The most attractive women will be first in line to bag the best prospects.
2. There may be some impact of the player's handsomeness.
3. Some positions pay more than others. Don't ask me how, but I think the women know this.
4. Some colleges have more attractive women than others. (The "Arizona State" effect.)
5. The player's personality may play some minor role, such as getting arrested a lot or being smart/dumb.
6. I'm not sure, but it may be a disadvantage to be a big lineman.
I propose that NFL scouts take advantage of this massive grassroots scouting system to identify the best players. My initial hypothesis of a formula to evaluate each player would be:
Potential = [(Girlfriend Attractiveness)^2 + (Girlfriend Attractiveness - Player Attractiveness)^2 (See Note 1) - (Average Attractiveness of Top Ten Percent of Women on Campus)^2 - Average Attractiveness of Top Ten Percent of Women on Campus)^2 (See Note 2) + Player's Wonderlic Score - Number of Player Arrests^2 - ((Weight-280)/20)(See Note 2)] * (Average NFL Pay/Average NFL Pay for Player's Position)
Notes:
1. If player is more attractive than girlfriend, subtract instead of add.
2. Include this factor only if the average rating of the top ten percent is less than 6. This factor negates the "othe women on campus" factor if the campus consists primarily of unattractive women, hence diluting competition.
3. Include this factor only if the player weighs more than 280 pounds
I haven't tested this model, but I'll bet it predicts player success very well.
So it got me thinking about other ways that might be more foolproof methods of scouting. Then it hit me, the most simple and obvious answer in the world.
What population has the most riding on the success of a college prospect? It's not the scouts. It's not the college coaches. It's not even the player himself, since he's just playing the cards he's dealt.
The population most impacted is the girlfriend of the player.
Envision a college woman who wants to marry into money. She HAS to make the right choice. Her entire lifestyle is riding on her ability to select the player with the most earnings potential. She is therefore scouting the players on her campus with the utmost diligence to find the one who will make the most money.
So what are the variables here? I see the following:
1. The most attractive women will be first in line to bag the best prospects.
2. There may be some impact of the player's handsomeness.
3. Some positions pay more than others. Don't ask me how, but I think the women know this.
4. Some colleges have more attractive women than others. (The "Arizona State" effect.)
5. The player's personality may play some minor role, such as getting arrested a lot or being smart/dumb.
6. I'm not sure, but it may be a disadvantage to be a big lineman.
I propose that NFL scouts take advantage of this massive grassroots scouting system to identify the best players. My initial hypothesis of a formula to evaluate each player would be:
Potential = [(Girlfriend Attractiveness)^2 + (Girlfriend Attractiveness - Player Attractiveness)^2 (See Note 1) - (Average Attractiveness of Top Ten Percent of Women on Campus)^2 - Average Attractiveness of Top Ten Percent of Women on Campus)^2 (See Note 2) + Player's Wonderlic Score - Number of Player Arrests^2 - ((Weight-280)/20)(See Note 2)] * (Average NFL Pay/Average NFL Pay for Player's Position)
Notes:
1. If player is more attractive than girlfriend, subtract instead of add.
2. Include this factor only if the average rating of the top ten percent is less than 6. This factor negates the "othe women on campus" factor if the campus consists primarily of unattractive women, hence diluting competition.
3. Include this factor only if the player weighs more than 280 pounds
I haven't tested this model, but I'll bet it predicts player success very well.