Why Pioli?

[ModSocks]

Just wondering. What has he done that makes him a better candidate than others?

[OnTheWarpath15]

He works for New England, he must be the best! /typical CP response

[acesn8s]

He got his name into the media and they ran with it.

[Brock]

It just seems like a good idea to hire people from great organizations.

[Bowser]

Comes from a winning program - has shown he is smart with personnel, veteran or no - understudy Dmitroff has been lights out in Atlanta as their GM - certainly must want to get out from under the shadow of Belichick

[88TG88]

He has no previous relationships with the Chiefs.

[Mr. Laz]

why not Pioli?

i mean he's young and comes from the Player Personnel dept of arguably the best organization of the last 10 years.

what else are you gonna base your decision on?



The Winningest Team In Past 11 Years- Brief Statistical View

Posted 29-Oct-2008 at 04:23 AM by towen5 (http://forum.nfluk.com/blog.php?u=91633) <!-- | Permalink (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/blog.php?b=162)-->
Updated 29-Oct-2008 at 05:25 AM by towen5 (http://forum.nfluk.com/blog.php?u=91633)
<!-- ads could go here --> In a thread a person mentioned merging the conferences and creating two divisions with promotion and relegation based on teams performances over the past 11 years.

Now obviously this idea was slated and shot out of the water, but it got me thinking.

How have teams been doing over the past 11 years? Would there be any surprising data?

I started by compiling a spreadsheet database of win-lose records for each team for the last 11 years. I then highlighted playoff appearances and super bowl wins. I then calculated a total win-loss record for the year and used this to work out a win percentage (this meant i could compare teams who had played different amounts of games ie. Browns and Texans)

This winning percentage then allowed me to rank the teams.

Here is a basic form what i found:

Rank---Winning %---Playoff Apps---Sbowl Apps

1. Patriots - 67.04% (8 p/o Apps) (3 sb wins)
2. Packers - 62.50% (8 p/o Apps)
3. Colts - 61.36% (8 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
4. Broncos - 60.89% (8 p/o Apps) (2 sb wins)
5. Steelers - 60.51% (8 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
6. Jaguars - 56.81% (8 p/o Apps)
7. Titans - 56.25% (8 p/o Apps)
8. Seahawks - 55.68% (8 p/o Apps)
9. Eagles - 55.39% (8 p/o Apps)
10. Bucs - 54.54% (7 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
11. Vikings - 54.54% (5 Playoff Apps)
12. Giants - 53.12% (6 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
13. Chiefs - 52.84% (3 p/o Apps)
14. Ravens - 52.55% (4 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
15. Jets - 51.70% (5 p/o Apps)
16. Rams - 51.13% (5 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
17. Dolphins - 50.56% (5 p/o Apps)
18. Cowboys - 48.86% (5 p/o Apps)
19. Redskins - 46.87% (3 p/o Apps)
20. 49ers - 46.59% (4 p/o Apps)
21. Falcons - 46.30% (3 p/o Apps)
22. Chargers - 46.02% (3 p/o Apps)
23. Bills - 45.45% (2 p/o Apps)
24. Bears - 44.88% (3 p/o Apps)
25. Panthers - 44.31% (2 p/o Apps)
26. Saints - 43.75% (2 p/o Apps)
27. Raiders - 40.90% (3 p/o Apps)
28. Bengals - 38.63% (1 p/o Apps)
29. Lions - 35.22% (2 p/o Apps)
30. Cardinals - 35.22% (1 p/o Apps)
31. Browns - 34.72% (1 p/o Apps)
32. Texans - 33.33%

NFC ranks total - 280 - 48.93% (3 sb wins)

AFC ranks total - 248 - 51.36% (8 sb wins)

Obviously the lower the number the better the teams are as a whole in that conference.

Issues with the study

Firstly i would like to state there were a few issues that affected the quality of the data.

Obviously the Texans were formed in 2002 but because it was based on win percentage that didn't really matter. The same goes for the Browns missing '97 and '98.

I decided to include Tennessee Oilers as part of Tennessee Titans stats and also included all the stats from the Seahawks prior to their shift to the NFC in 2001. This therefore may affect the outcome.

I decided that tied games would count as 0.5 win 0.5 loss.

10 Key Results

1. There seems to be a massive gap with the 'Top 5' teams compared to the rest of the league. They relatively seem to have dominated the last 11 years, especially New England.

2. There are a few teams that are surprisingly high, would you say that the Packers are the 2nd best team in the NFL? (based on empirical data)

3. A few are also surprisingly low. Would you rate the Cowboys as a mid rate team?

4. Is it a surprise over the past 11 years the AFC has been a better conference? Also, would you have guessed that over the past 11 years the NFC as a whole has lost over half their games.

5. The Texans are the only team in the league to not reach the playoffs in the last 11 years. Also, only 2 teams have won the Super Bowl more than once over this period. This demonstrates the parity of the NFL.

7. Over the past 11 years we have seen 16-0 (Patriots), 15-1 (Steelers), 1-15 (Miami, Panthers & Chargers)

8. The lowest winning record of a Super Bowl winner during this period was last years Giants at 10-6.

9. 5 teams in the AFC won more than 100 games (1 with 99) - Broncos, Colts, Jaguars, Pats & Steelers (Titans), while only the Packers managed this for the NFC.

10. The AFC won 97 more games than the NFC over this period.

This was my first foray into statistical research based on the NFL so im aware that its quite simple stats but i would love any feedback as it will help me improve.

Thanks for being so patient, i have added an attachment containing my spreadsheet in a compressed file for anyone that wants to check it out.

http://forum.nfluk.com/blog.php?b=162

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Just wondering. What has he done that makes him a better candidate than others?

Personally, I don't really want him here because I think he brings Matt Cassell and the Chiefs would have to trade for him.

If we can avoid that mistake, then I am all for bringing him in.

[txhawk]

Personally, I don't really want him here because I think he brings Matt Cassell and the Chiefs would have to trade for him.

If we can avoid that mistake, then I am all for bringing him in.

I believe Cassel is a free agent at end of this season.

[Bowser]

Personally, I don't really want him here because I think he brings Matt Cassell and the Chiefs would have to trade for him.

If we can avoid that mistake, then I am all for bringing him in.

No way do the Patriots let Cassell walk, especially with Brady's rehab not going well. They'll franchise him.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

I believe Cassel is a free agent at end of this season.

Even if they are willing to part with Cassel, they will franchise him to get compensation.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

No way do the Patriots let Cassell walk, especially with Brady's rehab not going well. They'll franchise him.

That is the point. They will want significant compensation for him.

[Bowser]

That is the point. They will want significant compensation for him.

They won't let him walk, period, unless they know for sure Brady is ready to go at 100% next season. I could see the Pats franchising him and letting him ride the pine, if need be.

[Mr. Laz]

No way do the Patriots let Cassell walk, especially with Brady's rehab not going well. They'll franchise him.
i don't see anyway the Pats can franchise Cassell

this would mandate a 8-9 million 1 year contract for him.

not gonna happen imo

[SenselessChiefsFan]

They won't let him walk, period, unless they know for sure Brady is ready to go at 100% next season. I could see the Pats franchising him and letting him ride the pine, if need be.

I think the Pats are smart enough to cash in when they can. A year from now, they probably don't get the same offers.

But, we will see what happens.

[DJ's left nut]

Is it talent or coaching with the Pats?

They keep getting guys hurt, they keep playing well with street FAs. I'd say it's coaching.

Meanwhile in Pittsburg they have a newb coach and never pay to keep their FAs but keep plugging in fresh talent. I think the front office in Pit has been more effective than the front office in NE, coaching excluded.

I'd rather have Whaley or Polian, I just don't know that Pioli is the reason for the success in NE.

[BigRedChief]

He got his name into the media and they ran with it.
He was the NFL Executive Man of the year 2 years in a row. Maybe thats why he got some press?

[Mr. Laz]

Is it talent or coaching with the Pats?
this is a huge question

but doesn't this apply to any of these new GM candidates?

[raybec 4]

Even if they are willing to part with Cassel, they will franchise him to get compensation.

Can you honestly look at some of the moves they have made over the last few years and believe they are going to franchise a backup, free agent QB.

[DJ's left nut]

this is a huge question

but doesn't this apply to any of these new GM candidates?

But that's why I like the Steelers. They're one of the few organizations that can at least provide something of an answer to that question.

They've changed coaches and never missed a beat. Is Tomlin really that similar to Cowher or is their organization just that good?

Even the Colts and Polian have had Dungy. Then there's the fact that Peyton Manning wins 5 games on any team he's on (including the Lions). The Steelers went to the SB with Neil O'freakin'Donnel and have been successful with two different coaches while turning their team over a couple of times.

That's the organization I try to emulate.

[BigRedChief]

From Wikipedia

In 1992 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_in_sports), Pioli was hired as a pro personnel assistant by now-Patriots coach Bill Belichick (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Belichick), then the head coach of the Cleveland Browns (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Browns). Even without prior NFL scouting experience, Belichick put Pioli in charge of evaluating college players and handling some player contracts.

When Belichick was fired following the Browns' move to Baltimore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Ravens) in 1996 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_in_sports), Pioli stayed with the Ravens and was promoted to director of pro personnel.

A year later, in 1997 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_in_sports), Pioli rejoined Belichick, who had followed Bill Parcells (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Parcells) as an assistant coach to the New York Jets (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Jets). Again the director of pro personnel, Pioli's moves helped the Jets to a franchise-high 12 wins and their first AFC East (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFC_East) title in 20 years.

When Belichick accepted the Patriots' head coaching position in 2000 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_New_England_Patriots_season), Pioli again followed Belichick as the Patriots' assistant director of player personnel.

In their seven seasons with the Patriots, Pioli and Belichick have led the team to three Super Bowl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) championships and five division titles. In his tenure with the Patriots, Pioli has earned promotions to Director of Player Personnel and Vice President of Player Personnel in 2000 and 2002 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_New_England_Patriots_season), respectively, as well as a contract extension in 2005 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_New_England_Patriots_season).

[BigRedChief]

[edit (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Scott_Pioli&action=edit&section=5)] 2001 season

<DL><DD>Further information: 2001 New England Patriots season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_New_England_Patriots_season) </DD></DL>
Dallas Morning News (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Morning_News) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
[edit (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Scott_Pioli&action=edit&section=6)] 2003 season

<DL><DD>Further information: 2003 New England Patriots season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_New_England_Patriots_season) </DD></DL>
Pro Football Weekly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Football_Weekly) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
Sporting News (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sporting_News) - George Young NFL Executive of the Year Award
Sports Illustrated (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
[edit (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Scott_Pioli&action=edit&section=7)] 2004 season

<DL><DD>Further information: 2004 New England Patriots season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_New_England_Patriots_season) </DD></DL>
NFL Players Association (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Players_Association) - Executive Achievement Award
San Francisco Chronicle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Chronicle) - Executive of the Year Award
Sporting News (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sporting_News) - George Young NFL Executive of the Year Award
Sports Illustrated (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
USA Today (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA_Today) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
[edit (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Scott_Pioli&action=edit&section=8)] 2007 season

<DL><DD>Further information: 2007 New England Patriots season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_New_England_Patriots_season) </DD></DL>
Dallas Morning News (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Morning_News) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
Pro Football Weekly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Football_Weekly) - NFL Executive of the Year Award
San Francisco Chronicle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Chronicle) - Executive of the Year Award

[Hoover]

I'm hot and cold on Pioli. I think the success in NE should be credited to their owner Robert Kraft, and their HC. Now I think that should create a great environment for someone like Pioli to develop, but many coaches coming from NE have not been able to find success in the NFL.

[Bowser]

Yeah, Pioli sucks. We should just promote Kuharich.

[Hoover]

From Wikipedia

In 1992 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_in_sports), Pioli was hired as a pro personnel assistant by now-Patriots coach Bill Belichick (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Belichick), then the head coach of the Cleveland Browns (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Browns). Even without prior NFL scouting experience, Belichick put Pioli in charge of evaluating college players and handling some player contracts.

When Belichick was fired following the Browns' move to Baltimore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Ravens) in 1996 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_in_sports), Pioli stayed with the Ravens and was promoted to director of pro personnel.

A year later, in 1997 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_in_sports), Pioli rejoined Belichick, who had followed Bill Parcells (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Parcells) as an assistant coach to the New York Jets (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Jets). Again the director of pro personnel, Pioli's moves helped the Jets to a franchise-high 12 wins and their first AFC East (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFC_East) title in 20 years.

When Belichick accepted the Patriots' head coaching position in 2000 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_New_England_Patriots_season), Pioli again followed Belichick as the Patriots' assistant director of player personnel.

In their seven seasons with the Patriots, Pioli and Belichick have led the team to three Super Bowl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) championships and five division titles. In his tenure with the Patriots, Pioli has earned promotions to Director of Player Personnel and Vice President of Player Personnel in 2000 and 2002 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_New_England_Patriots_season), respectively, as well as a contract extension in 2005 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_New_England_Patriots_season).
So the question that begs asking is, can Pioli be successful without Belichick.

[OnTheWarpath15]

this is a huge question

but doesn't this apply to any of these new GM candidates?

When your drafts are below average/average like the Patriots have been, and they still win - that should answer your question about the GM/Coaching relationship in NE...

[BigRedChief]

Yeah, Pioli sucks. We should just promote Kuharich. STFU Don't give Clark any ideas.

[raybec 4]

They won't let him walk, period, unless they know for sure Brady is ready to go at 100% next season. I could see the Pats franchising him and letting him ride the pine, if need be.

They owe Brady 5 mil base salary and 3 mil roster bonus. They also owe him 6.6 million of his pro rated signing bonus. The franchise number for QB will be just over 12 milliion. I doubt they will tie up almost 27 million in cap space just to have Cassel ride the pine.

[chiefsngop]

If nothing else Pioli would bring a winning attitude and mandate to 1 Arrowhead Drive.

Can you imagine someone from the Pats front office tolerating 2 to 4 win seasons ?

He'd most likely be willing to make heads roll if failure happens, an attitude the Chiefs have been missing for years.

[Chiefnj2]

So the question that begs asking is, can Pioli be successful without Belichick.

It's very similar to the Savage/Newsome connection a few years ago.

[Mr. Laz]

When your drafts are below average/average like the Patriots have been, and they still win - that should answer your question about the GM/Coaching relationship in NE...
new england starters - 7 Free Agents/ 15 drafted

not counting kickers etc

[ModSocks]

I'm hot and cold on Pioli. I think the success in NE should be credited to their owner Robert Kraft, and their HC. Now I think that should create a great environment for someone like Pioli to develop, but many coaches coming from NE have not been able to find success in the NFL.

I feel the same way. I look at the Ravens, with Eric DeCosta, and look at all the players that they DRAFTED. NE hasn't had that kind of success. They're great at getting the most out of the talent they have; which is coaching, not just evaluation.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against Pioli, I just wanted to see if someone had information as to why he's so sought after.

[Chiefnj2]

Why Pioli?

Here is why. As fans, we don't know shit. So, we look at teams with winning records go to the team site and look at all the guys listed under the GM who have something to do with personnel issues. We then automatically assume that they too are really good at their jobs and no other candidate will do.

[ModSocks]

Why Pioli?

Here is why. As fans, we don't know shit. So, we look at teams with winning records go to the team site and look at all the guys listed under the GM who have something to do with personnel issues. We then automatically assume that they too are really good at their jobs and no other candidate will do.

That's what i figured.

[OnTheWarpath15]

new england starters - 7 Free Agents/ 15 drafted

not counting kickers etc

Look at this list and tell me that the Patriots drafts were good under Pioli.

He hit on his OL, and hit the lottery with Brady.

There are a LOT of misses on this list.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I feel the same way. I look at the Ravens, with Eric DeCosta, and look at all the players that they DRAFTED. NE hasn't had that kind of success. They're great at getting the most out of the talent they have; which is coaching, not just evaluation.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against Pioli, I just wanted to see if someone had information as to why he's so sought after.

This.

[DaWolf]

Why Pioli?

Here is why. As fans, we don't know shit. So, we look at teams with winning records go to the team site and look at all the guys listed under the GM who have something to do with personnel issues. We then automatically assume that they too are really good at their jobs and no other candidate will do.

That and because the East Coast media tells us he is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I would not mind the hiring of Pioli, he comes from a top notch organization and guys under him have gone on to success, most notably Dimitrioff in Atlanta. But his unwillingness to pursue jobs and the fact that other successful guys have failed when they changed settings leave some doubt as to whether he could duplicate the success here. I have no doubt that there are other, less exciting names out there who would do as good or a better job for this organization that we would royally rip because we've never heard of them...

[Brock]

i don't see anyway the Pats can franchise Cassell

this would mandate a 8-9 million 1 year contract for him.

not gonna happen imo

Can they use it simply to extract trade compensation?

[TrebMaxx]

It is impossible to predict that who ever is brought in will have success. I just look at the bright side in knowing that his name will not be Carl Peterson and hope for the best.

[Hootie]

i don't see anyway the Pats can franchise Cassell

this would mandate a 8-9 million 1 year contract for him.

not gonna happen imo

I think it will be more like 12-14 million...

[BigRedChief]

That and because the East Coast media tells us he is the greatest thing since sliced bread.
I think you can find threads on here that I started dating back to 2003 or so calling for Pioli as the GM to replace King Carl.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Can you honestly look at some of the moves they have made over the last few years and believe they are going to franchise a backup, free agent QB.

Yes, they are SMART. We all know that Cassel is going to cash in... might as well get some picks out of it.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

Can they use it simply to extract trade compensation?

Yep. The franchise tag does not count against the cap until the contract is signed. So, they can designate him, and then trade him.

[Hootie]

I don't see why the draft gurus want a guy like Pioli...he is going to give Mecca a stroke...the Patriots make picks every year that are considered ridiculous reaches...but the scouts always give them a pass because they are the Patriots.

As OTWP pointed out...the Pats have had some historically bad drafts this past decade...Maroney/Chad Jackson/Dave Thomas??? Yikes. Plus they drafted Mayo 15 picks early...even though he had a good rookie campaign.

[raybec 4]

Yes, they are SMART. We all know that Cassel is going to cash in... might as well get some picks out of it.

That actually wouldn't be very smart, unless they can be assured that a team would be willing to pay his tag amount or restructure to a long term big money deal they would be stuck with over 12 mil in a backup.

[Buck]

Not to be an ass or anything, but If I were an NFL Exec, KC would be very unattractive to me.

Why would anyone want to leave a city like Boston to go to the midwest?

I guess to each his own, but I think the Chiefs are sort of screwed by their location.

[ModSocks]

I don't see why the draft gurus want a guy like Pioli...he is going to give Mecca a stroke...the Patriots make picks every year that are considered ridiculous reaches...but the scouts always give them a pass because they are the Patriots.

As OTWP pointed out...the Pats have had some historically bad drafts this past decade...Maroney/Chad Jackson/Dave Thomas??? Yikes. Plus they drafted Mayo 15 picks early...even though he had a good rookie campaign.

Yep. If we hire him, ima hope the hype is true. But i have a feeling like we should not believe the hype. I'd be more happy with someone who drafts consistantly well. The patriots claim to draft fame is Brady.

I wanted the chiefs to draft Brady in the middle rounds that year. he was on my wish list, maybe im a guru......probably not...

The pats got lucky that they nabbed him, i'd rather have consistantcy than luck

[ModSocks]

Not to be an ass or anything, but If I were an NFL Exec, KC would be very unattractive to me.

Why would anyone want to leave a city like Boston to go to the midwest?

I guess to each his own, but I think the Chiefs are sort of screwed by their location.

It's because you, like I, live in San Diego and can't imagine being anywhere else. I don't think NFL execs care. And it's not like Boston is such a desirable place.

Besides, he could jump on his private jet and be in Boston in no time.

[Brock]

NE had 1 or possibly 2 bad drafts under Pioli/Belichick. Every other year was probably superior to anything KC has done in the same time frame. The draft has been the secret to their long term success, let's not pretend otherwise.

[OnTheWarpath15]

NE had 1 or possibly 2 bad drafts under Pioli/Belichick. Every other year was probably superior to anything KC has done in the same time frame. The draft has been the secret to their long term success, let's not pretend otherwise.

Better than bad does not equal good, Brock.

And no one said their drafts were bad, only that they were average at best.

[ModSocks]

NE had 1 or possibly 2 bad drafts under Pioli/Belichick. Every other year was probably superior to anything KC has done in the same time frame. The draft has been the secret to their long term success, let's not pretend otherwise.

A lot of teams have drafted better than KC. i wonder how other potential Gm candidates have drafted compared to Pioli's?

[dirk digler]

I am starting to lean toward Whaley or the guy from the Ravens.

[Brock]

Better than bad does not equal good, Brock.

And no one said their drafts were bad, only that they were average at best.

Not wanting to invest a bunch of time in analysis, I would guess that their drafts stack up pretty good against anyone's.

[Bowser]

Better than bad does not equal good, Brock.

And no one said their drafts were bad, only that they were average at best.

I don't think the Pats had below average drafts, but I do think that their coach can get every little ounce out of every player, unlike the coach here.

[eazyb81]

Not to be an ass or anything, but If I were an NFL Exec, KC would be very unattractive to me.

Why would anyone want to leave a city like Boston to go to the midwest?

I guess to each his own, but I think the Chiefs are sort of screwed by their location.

I'd guess most people that are driven and career-minded are more concerned with their position and organization rather than geographic location.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Not wanting to invest a bunch of time in analysis, I would guess that their drafts stack up pretty good against anyone's.

The list of Pioli's drafts is in post #35.

2000: Hit on 1/10 players - Brady

2001: Hit on 2/10 players - Seymour, Light

2002: Hit on 1/6 players - Branch

2003: Hit on 3/10 players - Warren, Samuel, Koppen

2004: Hit on 1/8 players - Wilfork

2005: Hit on 5/7 players - Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders, Cassel

2006: Hit on 1/10 players - Gostkowski

2007: Early, but looking like 1/9 - Meriweather



Downright poor other than 2003/2005.

Even with those two years, they still only hit on 21% of picks during Pioli's time there. (15/70)

[Hootie]

that's why I said I'm surprised Mecca is so high on Pioli...he is going to shit dozens of bricks watching Pioli reach for guys...every year the talking heads talk about how the Patriots draft board is always vastly different than the rest of the teams in the NFL...

[BigRedChief]

The list of Pioli's drafts is in post #35.

2000: Hit on 1/10 players - Brady

2001: Hit on 2/10 players - Seymour, Light

2002: Hit on 1/6 players - Branch

2003: Hit on 3/10 players - Warren, Samuel, Koppen

2004: Hit on 1/8 players - Wilfork

2005: Hit on 5/7 players - Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders, Cassel

2006: Hit on 1/10 players - Gostkowski

2007: Early, but looking like 1/9 - Meriweather



Downright poor other than 2003/2005.

Even with those two years, they still only hit on 21% of picks during Pioli's time there. (15/70)
where as we hit on LJ, DJ and Jared Allen. 3 players in 7 years.

But how can the next guy regardless of who it is be worse than King Carl? Is it even possible outside of the Lions and Al Davis's war rooms?

[OnTheWarpath15]

where as we hit on LJ, DJ and Jared Allen. 3 players in 7 years.

But how can the next guy regardless of who it is be worse than King Carl? Is it even possible outside of the Lions and Al Davis's war rooms?

Again, being better than KC at drafting doesn't make you good at it.

[ModSocks]

The list of Pioli's drafts is in post #35.

2000: Hit on 1/10 players - Brady

2001: Hit on 2/10 players - Seymour, Light

2002: Hit on 1/6 players - Branch

2003: Hit on 3/10 players - Warren, Samuel, Koppen

2004: Hit on 1/8 players - Wilfork

2005: Hit on 5/7 players - Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders, Cassel

2006: Hit on 1/10 players - Gostkowski

2007: Early, but looking like 1/9 - Meriweather



Downright poor other than 2003/2005.

Even with those two years, they still only hit on 21% of picks during Pioli's time there. (15/70)

Interesting.

[Chiefnj2]

that's why I said I'm surprised Mecca is so high on Pioli...he is going to shit dozens of bricks watching Pioli reach for guys...every year the talking heads talk about how the Patriots draft board is always vastly different than the rest of the teams in the NFL...

Did you know that Pioli was only 175lbs when he was drafted?

[Bowser]

Again, being better than KC at drafting doesn't make you good at it.

Not to be a jackass, but for argument's sake, what team would you say has hit the most on their recent drafts?

[BigRedChief]

Interesting.
But remember where they were drafting. A lot harder to find Pro Bowlers picking 30-32nd.

[Brock]

I know I said I didn't want to do this, but for comparison's sake, here is the NYG draft over the same time period.

2008 1 1 31 31 Kenny Phillips DB Miami (FL)
2 2 32 63 Terrell Thomas DB USC
3 3 32 95 Mario Manningham WR Michigan
4 4 24 123 Bryan Kehl LB Brigham Young
5 5 30 165 Jonathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
6 6 32 198 Andre' Woodson QB Kentucky
7 6 33 199 Robert Henderson DE Southern Mississippi
2007 1 1 20 20 Aaron Ross DB Texas
2 2 19 51 Steve Smith WR USC
3 3 18 81 Jay Alford DT Penn State
4 4 17 116 Zak DeOssie LB Brown
5 5 16 153 Kevin Boss TE Western Oregon
6 6 15 189 Adam Koets T Oregon State
7 7 14 224 Michael Johnson DB Arizona
8 7 40 250 Ahmad Bradshaw RB Marshall
2006 1 1 32 32 Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
2 2 12 44 Sinorice Moss WR Miami (FL)
3 3 32 96 Gerris Wilkinson LB Georgia Tech
4 4 27 124 Barry Cofield DT Northwestern
5 4 32 129 Guy Whimper T East Carolina
6 5 26 158 Charlie Peprah DB Alabama
7 7 24 232 Gerrick McPhearson DB Maryland
2005 1 2 11 43 Corey Webster DB Louisiana State
2 3 10 74 Justin Tuck DE Notre Dame
3 4 9 110 Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois
4 6 12 186 Eric Moore DE Florida State
2004 1 1 4 4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
2 2 2 34 Chris Snee G Boston College
3 4 1 97 Reggie Torbor DE Auburn
4 5 4 136 Gibril Wilson DB Tennessee
5 6 3 168 Jamaar Taylor WR Texas A&M
6 7 2 203 Drew Strojny T Duke
7 7 52 253 Isaac Hilton DE Hampton
2003 1 1 25 25 William Joseph DT Miami (FL)
2 2 24 56 Osi Umenyiora DE Troy State
3 3 27 91 Vishante Shiancoe TE Morgan State
4 4 26 123 Roderick Babers DB Texas
5 5 25 160 David Diehl G Illinois
6 6 26 199 Willie Ponder WR Southeast Missouri State
7 6 34 207 Frank Walker DB Tuskegee
8 6 38 211 David Tyree WR Syracuse
9 7 26 240 Charles Drake DB Michigan
10 7 35 249 Wayne Lucier C Colorado
11 7 41 255 Kevin Walter WR Eastern Michigan
2002 1 1 14 14 Jeremy Shockey TE Miami (FL)
2 2 14 46 Tim Carter WR Auburn
3 3 13 78 Jeff Hatch T Pennsylvania
4 5 17 152 Nick Greisen LB Wisconsin
5 6 16 188 Wesley Mallard DB Oregon
6 7 15 226 Daryl Jones WR Miami (FL)
7 7 35 246 Quincy Monk LB North Carolina
2001 1 1 22 22 Will Allen DB Syracuse
2 3 16 78 William Peterson DB Western Illinois
3 4 19 114 Cedric Scott DE Southern Mississippi
4 4 30 125 Jesse Palmer QB Florida
5 5 29 160 John Markham K Vanderbilt
6 5 31 162 Jonathan Carter WR Troy State
7 7 30 230 Ross Kolodziej DE Wisconsin
2000 1 1 11 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin
2 2 11 42 Cornelius Griffin DT Alabama
3 3 11 73 Ron Dixon WR Lambuth (TN)
4 4 11 105 Brandon Short LB Penn State
5 5 11 140 Ralph Brown DB Nebraska
6 6 11 177 Dhani Jones LB Michigan
7 7 11 217 Jeremiah Parker DE California

[OnTheWarpath15]

Not to be a jackass, but for argument's sake, what team would you say has hit the most on their recent drafts?

Off the top of my head, Indy has to top the list.

[Hootie]

Looks to me like the Giants had more hits than the Patriots.

[ModSocks]

I know I said I didn't want to do this, but for comparison's sake, here is the NYG draft over the same time period.

2008 1 1 31 31 Kenny Phillips DB Miami (FL)
2 2 32 63 Terrell Thomas DB USC
3 3 32 95 Mario Manningham WR Michigan
4 4 24 123 Bryan Kehl LB Brigham Young
5 5 30 165 Jonathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
6 6 32 198 Andre' Woodson QB Kentucky
7 6 33 199 Robert Henderson DE Southern Mississippi
2007 1 1 20 20 Aaron Ross DB Texas
2 2 19 51 Steve Smith WR USC
3 3 18 81 Jay Alford DT Penn State
4 4 17 116 Zak DeOssie LB Brown
5 5 16 153 Kevin Boss TE Western Oregon
6 6 15 189 Adam Koets T Oregon State
7 7 14 224 Michael Johnson DB Arizona
8 7 40 250 Ahmad Bradshaw RB Marshall
2006 1 1 32 32 Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
2 2 12 44 Sinorice Moss WR Miami (FL)
3 3 32 96 Gerris Wilkinson LB Georgia Tech
4 4 27 124 Barry Cofield DT Northwestern
5 4 32 129 Guy Whimper T East Carolina
6 5 26 158 Charlie Peprah DB Alabama
7 7 24 232 Gerrick McPhearson DB Maryland
2005 1 2 11 43 Corey Webster DB Louisiana State
2 3 10 74 Justin Tuck DE Notre Dame
3 4 9 110 Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois
4 6 12 186 Eric Moore DE Florida State
2004 1 1 4 4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
2 2 2 34 Chris Snee G Boston College
3 4 1 97 Reggie Torbor DE Auburn
4 5 4 136 Gibril Wilson DB Tennessee
5 6 3 168 Jamaar Taylor WR Texas A&M
6 7 2 203 Drew Strojny T Duke
7 7 52 253 Isaac Hilton DE Hampton
2003 1 1 25 25 William Joseph DT Miami (FL)
2 2 24 56 Osi Umenyiora DE Troy State
3 3 27 91 Vishante Shiancoe TE Morgan State
4 4 26 123 Roderick Babers DB Texas
5 5 25 160 David Diehl G Illinois
6 6 26 199 Willie Ponder WR Southeast Missouri State
7 6 34 207 Frank Walker DB Tuskegee
8 6 38 211 David Tyree WR Syracuse
9 7 26 240 Charles Drake DB Michigan
10 7 35 249 Wayne Lucier C Colorado
11 7 41 255 Kevin Walter WR Eastern Michigan
2002 1 1 14 14 Jeremy Shockey TE Miami (FL)
2 2 14 46 Tim Carter WR Auburn
3 3 13 78 Jeff Hatch T Pennsylvania
4 5 17 152 Nick Greisen LB Wisconsin
5 6 16 188 Wesley Mallard DB Oregon
6 7 15 226 Daryl Jones WR Miami (FL)
7 7 35 246 Quincy Monk LB North Carolina
2001 1 1 22 22 Will Allen DB Syracuse
2 3 16 78 William Peterson DB Western Illinois
3 4 19 114 Cedric Scott DE Southern Mississippi
4 4 30 125 Jesse Palmer QB Florida
5 5 29 160 John Markham K Vanderbilt
6 5 31 162 Jonathan Carter WR Troy State
7 7 30 230 Ross Kolodziej DE Wisconsin
2000 1 1 11 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin
2 2 11 42 Cornelius Griffin DT Alabama
3 3 11 73 Ron Dixon WR Lambuth (TN)
4 4 11 105 Brandon Short LB Penn State
5 5 11 140 Ralph Brown DB Nebraska
6 6 11 177 Dhani Jones LB Michigan
7 7 11 217 Jeremiah Parker DE California

That's a much more impressive list than what NE has

[BigRedChief]

Off the top of my head, Indy has to top the list.
Also don't we have to include FA pick ups in an evaluation of a GM? NE has been the best at that in the NFL.

What about letting huge salaries for unproductive or aging players go away instead of count against the cap?

It's not all about the draft.

King Carl has failed miserably at the draft, FA's and letting high $ talent(but aging)walk away.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I know I said I didn't want to do this, but for comparison's sake, here is the NYG draft over the same time period.

2008 1 1 31 31 Kenny Phillips DB Miami (FL)
2 2 32 63 Terrell Thomas DB USC
3 3 32 95 Mario Manningham WR Michigan
4 4 24 123 Bryan Kehl LB Brigham Young
5 5 30 165 Jonathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
6 6 32 198 Andre' Woodson QB Kentucky
7 6 33 199 Robert Henderson DE Southern Mississippi
2007 1 1 20 20 Aaron Ross DB Texas
2 2 19 51 Steve Smith WR USC
3 3 18 81 Jay Alford DT Penn State
4 4 17 116 Zak DeOssie LB Brown
5 5 16 153 Kevin Boss TE Western Oregon
6 6 15 189 Adam Koets T Oregon State
7 7 14 224 Michael Johnson DB Arizona
8 7 40 250 Ahmad Bradshaw RB Marshall
2006 1 1 32 32 Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
2 2 12 44 Sinorice Moss WR Miami (FL)
3 3 32 96 Gerris Wilkinson LB Georgia Tech
4 4 27 124 Barry Cofield DT Northwestern
5 4 32 129 Guy Whimper T East Carolina
6 5 26 158 Charlie Peprah DB Alabama
7 7 24 232 Gerrick McPhearson DB Maryland
2005 1 2 11 43 Corey Webster DB Louisiana State
2 3 10 74 Justin Tuck DE Notre Dame
3 4 9 110 Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois
4 6 12 186 Eric Moore DE Florida State
2004 1 1 4 4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
2 2 2 34 Chris Snee G Boston College
3 4 1 97 Reggie Torbor DE Auburn
4 5 4 136 Gibril Wilson DB Tennessee
5 6 3 168 Jamaar Taylor WR Texas A&M
6 7 2 203 Drew Strojny T Duke
7 7 52 253 Isaac Hilton DE Hampton
2003 1 1 25 25 William Joseph DT Miami (FL)
2 2 24 56 Osi Umenyiora DE Troy State
3 3 27 91 Vishante Shiancoe TE Morgan State
4 4 26 123 Roderick Babers DB Texas
5 5 25 160 David Diehl G Illinois
6 6 26 199 Willie Ponder WR Southeast Missouri State
7 6 34 207 Frank Walker DB Tuskegee
8 6 38 211 David Tyree WR Syracuse
9 7 26 240 Charles Drake DB Michigan
10 7 35 249 Wayne Lucier C Colorado
11 7 41 255 Kevin Walter WR Eastern Michigan
2002 1 1 14 14 Jeremy Shockey TE Miami (FL)
2 2 14 46 Tim Carter WR Auburn
3 3 13 78 Jeff Hatch T Pennsylvania
4 5 17 152 Nick Greisen LB Wisconsin
5 6 16 188 Wesley Mallard DB Oregon
6 7 15 226 Daryl Jones WR Miami (FL)
7 7 35 246 Quincy Monk LB North Carolina
2001 1 1 22 22 Will Allen DB Syracuse
2 3 16 78 William Peterson DB Western Illinois
3 4 19 114 Cedric Scott DE Southern Mississippi
4 4 30 125 Jesse Palmer QB Florida
5 5 29 160 John Markham K Vanderbilt
6 5 31 162 Jonathan Carter WR Troy State
7 7 30 230 Ross Kolodziej DE Wisconsin
2000 1 1 11 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin
2 2 11 42 Cornelius Griffin DT Alabama
3 3 11 73 Ron Dixon WR Lambuth (TN)
4 4 11 105 Brandon Short LB Penn State
5 5 11 140 Ralph Brown DB Nebraska
6 6 11 177 Dhani Jones LB Michigan
7 7 11 217 Jeremiah Parker DE California




I counted 24 out of 58 picks. (2000-2007)

41%

[OnTheWarpath15]

FWIW, I just counted up Indy...

27/65

41%

[Hootie]

Also don't we have to include FA pick ups in an evaluation of a GM? NE has been the best at that in the NFL.

What about letting huge salaries for unproductive or aging players go away instead of count against the cap?

It's not all about the draft.

King Carl has failed miserably at the draft, FA's and letting high $ talent(but aging)walk away.

San Diego picked up three undrafted free agent pro bowlers one year...and sniffed out Welker the next.

What you need is a franchise QB...although we already know that.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

That actually wouldn't be very smart, unless they can be assured that a team would be willing to pay his tag amount or restructure to a long term big money deal they would be stuck with over 12 mil in a backup.

No they wouldn't. They can always withdraw their franchise tender before he signs it.

No player wants to be franchised. No player wants to sign that tender. And, when Cassel gets close to signing it, they can withdraw the offer.

Now, if I were Cassel, I may call their bluff quickly.... but, that is another topic altogether.

[Hootie]

No they wouldn't. They can always withdraw their franchise tender before he signs it.

No player wants to be franchised. No player wants to sign that tender. And, when Cassel gets close to signing it, they can withdraw the offer.

Now, if I were Cassel, I may call their bluff quickly.... but, that is another topic altogether.

True...but if they withdraw it he automatically becomes an unrestricted free agent. The Patriots should just let him walk, take the 3rd round compensation pick, and if Brady can't go I'm sure O'Connell will step in and get the Pats 11 more wins.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

[QUOTE=Hootie;5337412]True...but if they withdraw it he automatically becomes an unrestricted free agent. The Patriots should just let him walk, take the 3rd round compensation pick, and if Brady can't go I'm sure O'Connell will step in and get the Pats 11 more wins.[/QUOTE

Yes, IF they withdraw it, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Teams franchise guys that they have no intention of keeping all the time.

Take for example.... Jared Allen.

Compensatory picks are subjective and are based on the totality of the team. If the Pats pick up another free agent, it may wipe out any compensatory picks they were looking at for Cassel.

They can at least get a second, and perhaps a first for Cassel.

If they don't at least try, they are stupid. And, this isn't the Lions we are talking about.

[Hootie]

yeah but they aren't going to get 'fair' value for Cassel because of Tom Brady...they don't have the leverage because teams know they don't want to commit $20+M on QB's next season.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

yeah but they aren't going to get 'fair' value for Cassel because of Tom Brady...they don't have the leverage because teams know they don't want to commit $20+M on QB's next season.

They have leverage because there are very few good QB's in the league and several teams will be considering Cassel. The fact that they probably have no intention of keeping him has very little to do with it.

There is only one Matt Cassel this year. There are many teams wanting a good QB. The demand side of the equation is FAR more important than the supply side.

If they get anything, it will likely be much better than a compensatory pick AND won't be contingent on the rest of their free agent moves.

[txhawk]

No way they franchise him, too much cash to do that. What will be telling of Cassel's skill set will be if McDaniels makes a hard push for him after he's hired away from NE. Don't forget NE didn't play a very tough schedule, and I think Cassel's numbers are a bit inflated because of that.

Trust me, he's better than Thigpen. Solely from the fact that he understands how to win football games. Thigpen has yet to show game winning abilities.