Tribal Warfare
02-17-2009, 11:26 PM
Chiefs: NEW DEFENSIVE COACHES (http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/626)
Defense. Tough to analyze.Defense. Tough to analyze.
In one sense, this process seems like it has taken forever. In another sense, it’s pretty amazing how fast you can change your GM, head coach and entire staff. When you think about everything that entails in terms of overall direction of the team, factoring in what players you have, etc., it’s really an impressive process – especially with the built-in delay of the Super Bowl. Does that mean they covered all the bases? Highly doubtful.
Of course, the reason I say “highly doubtful” is simple. You cannot start from scratch without an enormous amount of guesswork. This isn’t like filling a single hole with the best candidate. However, looking at it optimistically, the Chiefs were 2-14 and the building process is going to take a few years. Thus, there is time to correct any mistakes – assuming Pioli and Haley aren’t two of them. Still, you can bet your life there will be several replacements in the next 2-3 years. Part of the reason is because KC was behind the eight ball this season. Many candidates they may have wanted six weeks ago simply were no longer available. And, you can be sure, Pioli will not tolerate mediocrity.
Bradford did an excellent job of speculating on who will coach what. I’m going to follow his blueprint and try to present a slightly deeper analysis of these guys. But again, much of this is guesswork on our part since prying open the Chiefs organization is about as easy as opening a can of beans with greasy fingers. Good luck.
Here are the three new defensive coaches: Either Gibbs or Pendergast will be the defensive coordinator. The other will probably be the linebacker’s coach. Collier is likely to be the secondary coach.
Clancy Pendergast (Age-41)
Pendergast spent a year with the Houston Oilers before joining the Dallas Cowboys. He was at Dallas from 1996-2002. Both he and Gibbs were there at the same time in 2002.
His responsibilities at Dallas were defensive assistant/linebackers coach for four years from 1996-1999, nickel defense packages in 2000 and secondary coach in 2001-02. He was hardly responsible for Dallas’ entire defense, but it still pays to take a look at their defensive ranking during that period.
During those seven seasons they ranked 3, 2, 18, 9, 19, 4, and 18. That’s pretty good, but again, we can’t make much out of it. A smaller sample, but a better metric, would be his two seasons as secondary coach. The team ranked #3 and then #19 in pass defense yardage. What is especially disturbing about that is the club was #3 before he took over and #1 the season after he left. What caused the drop off to #19? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe someone wants to dig into that.
He was the linebackers coach for Cleveland in 2003. Not much to say here.
In 2004, he was hired as defensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals. That lasted until the last defensive play of the 2008 season when their dreams went up in smoke. Undoubtedly, if Pittsburgh had not been able to drive it down Arizona’s throat in the last minute or two, he’d still be there. As it is, he’s our man – for better or for worse.
During his five seasons in Arizona, the club’s defensive yardage-allowed and points-allowed rankings are not particularly good. Here are both. For some reason, his points-allowed ranking is quite a bit better than yardage-allowed. This could be a result of a lot of things – most likely bending, but not breaking. That would typically imply a soft defense designed to prevent the long play. Kind of reminds me of a “prevent” defense – something I think almost every astute NFL fan hates. But, I admit, I don’t know the specifics as to why this seems to be the case with him.
Year
Ydg
Pts
2004
12
12
2005
26
8
2006
29
29
2007
27
17
2008
28
19
-
Gary Gibbs (Age-55)
Began coaching in 1975 as an assistant to Barry Switzer at Oklahoma. In 1978, he became the linebacker’s coach. He followed that as the defensive coordinator in 1981. Finally, in 1989, he took over as head coach of Oklahoma.
As defensive coordinator, he had quite a bit of success. In a four year period from 1984 to 1987, his Sooners allowed only five teams to get more than 17 points in a game. That’s fantastic!
As head coach, he led the team to a 44-23-2 record. He was fired after six years simply because a 44-23-2 record was unacceptable to the OU faithful. He was saddled with NCAA restrictions – the negative legacy left by Switzer. However, even after those ran out, he was unable to take the program to past levels.
He next became the defensive coordinator for Georgia in 2000 and LSU in 2001.
After that, he was hired as linebackers coach for the Dallas Cowboys (2002-2005). His run there was uneventful. Shown below is the average Cowboys’ ranking based on defensive yardage allowed since 1990. I broke it down into groups so as to put his tenure in perspective. His period is bolded.
Span
Avg. Rank
1990-93
9.5
1994-97
3.8
1998-01
12.5
2002-05
11.3
2006-08
10.0
-
Not much to get excited about here, but linebacker’s coach is hardly responsible for the entire defense.
His next stop was the New Orleans Saints (2006-2008). The Saints have had an odd thirteen years based upon points allowed from 1996-2008. Shown below are the sets of three years – including Gibb’s stint (bolded) and their NFL rank. This every-third-year phenomenon is almost certainly a coincidence, but interesting nonetheless.
96-98
99-01
02-04
05-07
08
Yr 1
20
28
26
28
26
Yr 2
16
10
14
13
Yr 3
21
27
27
25
-
As you can see, this pattern has repeated and Gibbs did nothing to change it.
Joel Collier (Age-45)
Collier was an offensive assistant in 1990 with Tampa Bay. The following year he became the assistant running backs and wide receivers coach for New England – a position he led for two seasons. In 1993, he was a scout for the Patriots. He was defensive assistant for the Miami Dolphins from 1994 to 1997. There isn’t much to make out of all of this since his level of responsibility was small in the scheme of things.
From 1998 to 2004, he was the running backs coach for the Dolphins. During these seven seasons, Miami’s running attack was so-so. What is interesting to me is that in all seven years, their rushing attempts’ rank is considerably higher than their rushing yardage rank. 2+2=4. That means their average yards per carry was not good. I don’t have rankings on that specific stat, but common sense indicates it must be the case. Shown below are those rankings for each season.
Year
Att
Yds
1998
13
24
1999
13
22
2000
8
14
2001
8
23
2002
1
2
2003
8
17
2004
29
31
-
From 2005-2007, he was the secondary coach for New England. Shown are the last seven years for the Pats (defensive passing yards allowed). I’m not sure why Collier would have been dumped after 2007 as they ranked #6. Perhaps someone has an answer for that. His three years are bolded.
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
11
15
17
31
12
6
7
-
Anyway, these are the three new defensive additions. The holdover was Tim Krumrie (defensive line coach).
I don’t expect miracles and this isn’t exactly a who’s who line-up of top-quality defensive coaches. I’m not sure what to hope for. Obviously, I want the defense to improve, but I have to think there will be a lot better candidates sometime in late 2009. It will be tough to fire someone after a year if their part of the defense improves. But, that’s why Pioli gets paid the big bucks - to make the tough decisions.
Defense. Tough to analyze.Defense. Tough to analyze.
In one sense, this process seems like it has taken forever. In another sense, it’s pretty amazing how fast you can change your GM, head coach and entire staff. When you think about everything that entails in terms of overall direction of the team, factoring in what players you have, etc., it’s really an impressive process – especially with the built-in delay of the Super Bowl. Does that mean they covered all the bases? Highly doubtful.
Of course, the reason I say “highly doubtful” is simple. You cannot start from scratch without an enormous amount of guesswork. This isn’t like filling a single hole with the best candidate. However, looking at it optimistically, the Chiefs were 2-14 and the building process is going to take a few years. Thus, there is time to correct any mistakes – assuming Pioli and Haley aren’t two of them. Still, you can bet your life there will be several replacements in the next 2-3 years. Part of the reason is because KC was behind the eight ball this season. Many candidates they may have wanted six weeks ago simply were no longer available. And, you can be sure, Pioli will not tolerate mediocrity.
Bradford did an excellent job of speculating on who will coach what. I’m going to follow his blueprint and try to present a slightly deeper analysis of these guys. But again, much of this is guesswork on our part since prying open the Chiefs organization is about as easy as opening a can of beans with greasy fingers. Good luck.
Here are the three new defensive coaches: Either Gibbs or Pendergast will be the defensive coordinator. The other will probably be the linebacker’s coach. Collier is likely to be the secondary coach.
Clancy Pendergast (Age-41)
Pendergast spent a year with the Houston Oilers before joining the Dallas Cowboys. He was at Dallas from 1996-2002. Both he and Gibbs were there at the same time in 2002.
His responsibilities at Dallas were defensive assistant/linebackers coach for four years from 1996-1999, nickel defense packages in 2000 and secondary coach in 2001-02. He was hardly responsible for Dallas’ entire defense, but it still pays to take a look at their defensive ranking during that period.
During those seven seasons they ranked 3, 2, 18, 9, 19, 4, and 18. That’s pretty good, but again, we can’t make much out of it. A smaller sample, but a better metric, would be his two seasons as secondary coach. The team ranked #3 and then #19 in pass defense yardage. What is especially disturbing about that is the club was #3 before he took over and #1 the season after he left. What caused the drop off to #19? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe someone wants to dig into that.
He was the linebackers coach for Cleveland in 2003. Not much to say here.
In 2004, he was hired as defensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals. That lasted until the last defensive play of the 2008 season when their dreams went up in smoke. Undoubtedly, if Pittsburgh had not been able to drive it down Arizona’s throat in the last minute or two, he’d still be there. As it is, he’s our man – for better or for worse.
During his five seasons in Arizona, the club’s defensive yardage-allowed and points-allowed rankings are not particularly good. Here are both. For some reason, his points-allowed ranking is quite a bit better than yardage-allowed. This could be a result of a lot of things – most likely bending, but not breaking. That would typically imply a soft defense designed to prevent the long play. Kind of reminds me of a “prevent” defense – something I think almost every astute NFL fan hates. But, I admit, I don’t know the specifics as to why this seems to be the case with him.
Year
Ydg
Pts
2004
12
12
2005
26
8
2006
29
29
2007
27
17
2008
28
19
-
Gary Gibbs (Age-55)
Began coaching in 1975 as an assistant to Barry Switzer at Oklahoma. In 1978, he became the linebacker’s coach. He followed that as the defensive coordinator in 1981. Finally, in 1989, he took over as head coach of Oklahoma.
As defensive coordinator, he had quite a bit of success. In a four year period from 1984 to 1987, his Sooners allowed only five teams to get more than 17 points in a game. That’s fantastic!
As head coach, he led the team to a 44-23-2 record. He was fired after six years simply because a 44-23-2 record was unacceptable to the OU faithful. He was saddled with NCAA restrictions – the negative legacy left by Switzer. However, even after those ran out, he was unable to take the program to past levels.
He next became the defensive coordinator for Georgia in 2000 and LSU in 2001.
After that, he was hired as linebackers coach for the Dallas Cowboys (2002-2005). His run there was uneventful. Shown below is the average Cowboys’ ranking based on defensive yardage allowed since 1990. I broke it down into groups so as to put his tenure in perspective. His period is bolded.
Span
Avg. Rank
1990-93
9.5
1994-97
3.8
1998-01
12.5
2002-05
11.3
2006-08
10.0
-
Not much to get excited about here, but linebacker’s coach is hardly responsible for the entire defense.
His next stop was the New Orleans Saints (2006-2008). The Saints have had an odd thirteen years based upon points allowed from 1996-2008. Shown below are the sets of three years – including Gibb’s stint (bolded) and their NFL rank. This every-third-year phenomenon is almost certainly a coincidence, but interesting nonetheless.
96-98
99-01
02-04
05-07
08
Yr 1
20
28
26
28
26
Yr 2
16
10
14
13
Yr 3
21
27
27
25
-
As you can see, this pattern has repeated and Gibbs did nothing to change it.
Joel Collier (Age-45)
Collier was an offensive assistant in 1990 with Tampa Bay. The following year he became the assistant running backs and wide receivers coach for New England – a position he led for two seasons. In 1993, he was a scout for the Patriots. He was defensive assistant for the Miami Dolphins from 1994 to 1997. There isn’t much to make out of all of this since his level of responsibility was small in the scheme of things.
From 1998 to 2004, he was the running backs coach for the Dolphins. During these seven seasons, Miami’s running attack was so-so. What is interesting to me is that in all seven years, their rushing attempts’ rank is considerably higher than their rushing yardage rank. 2+2=4. That means their average yards per carry was not good. I don’t have rankings on that specific stat, but common sense indicates it must be the case. Shown below are those rankings for each season.
Year
Att
Yds
1998
13
24
1999
13
22
2000
8
14
2001
8
23
2002
1
2
2003
8
17
2004
29
31
-
From 2005-2007, he was the secondary coach for New England. Shown are the last seven years for the Pats (defensive passing yards allowed). I’m not sure why Collier would have been dumped after 2007 as they ranked #6. Perhaps someone has an answer for that. His three years are bolded.
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
11
15
17
31
12
6
7
-
Anyway, these are the three new defensive additions. The holdover was Tim Krumrie (defensive line coach).
I don’t expect miracles and this isn’t exactly a who’s who line-up of top-quality defensive coaches. I’m not sure what to hope for. Obviously, I want the defense to improve, but I have to think there will be a lot better candidates sometime in late 2009. It will be tough to fire someone after a year if their part of the defense improves. But, that’s why Pioli gets paid the big bucks - to make the tough decisions.