Quesadilla Joe
04-19-2009, 09:30 AM
Scouts are mixed on Stafford (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/43199637.html)
Green Bay - The consensus three top quarterbacks in the National Football League draft will have to surmount their backgrounds in order to make it big.
So will Nate Davis, the rifle-armed prospect from Ball State.
It's a roll of the dice draft when it comes to quarterbacks. For the first time since 1990 it's an all-underclassmen board atop the position, a scenario that doesn't bode well for the half dozen clubs trying to find one.
"It is a risky business," said Eric DeCosta, director of player personnel for the Baltimore Ravens. "There's a statistic out there that a key indicator of (quarterbacks') success in the NFL is career starts. You want someone with experience."
Instead, teams have been studying a pair of third-year juniors, Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Kansas State's Josh Freeman, and Southern California's Mark Sanchez, another junior who spent a fourth season redshirting.
Since the NFL granted admission en masse to underclassmen in 1990, 43 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Sixteen of the 43, or 37.2%, have been underclassmen.
Of the 16, eight could be categorized as busts: Andre Ware (1990), Todd Marinovich ('91), Tommy Maddox ('92), Heath Shuler ('94), Ryan Leaf ('98), Tim Couch ('99), Rex Grossman ('03) and Alex Smith ('05).
The most successful of the 16 have been Ben Roethlisberger ('04), Drew Bledsoe ('93) and Michael Vick ('01), whose career was derailed by a 23-month prison term for dog-fighting conspiracy.
In January, USC coach Pete Carroll cited a "62% failure rate for underclassmen quarterbacks" after Sanchez bolted with 16 starts under his belt.
"I'm a huge résumé guy," said A.J. Smith, the San Diego Chargers' general manager. "He is extremely talented and I do think he will be terrific, but I don't have the (guts) if I was in that position to strike with him high. I've got to be 51 games, four bowl games like Philip Rivers.
"Unfortunately, somebody is going to have to take these guys. Because if you need one, you've got to make it happen."
Last year, the Atlanta Falcons hit the first-year jackpot with Matt Ryan at No. 3 just as the Ravens found a rookie starter in Joe Flacco at No. 18. Both spent five years in college, with 32 starts for Ryan and 26 for Flacco.
"With all due humbleness, it's very important to step back and take the whole picture into consideration," Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said. "The maturity level is a very big thing in my mind, especially for that position."
A Journal Sentinel poll of 18 personnel men suggested that the pecking order is established. Each was asked to list his favorites 1-2-3, with a first-place vote worth three points and so forth.
Stafford had 11 first-place votes and 46 points, followed by Sanchez with five and 39 and Freeman with two and 21. Rhett Bomar and Pat White each had a third-place vote.
"It's not the great year," Buffalo vice president Tom Modrak said. "You can find flies on all these guys. It gets to be a dilemma because there's certainly a year or two of training. But if the quarterback doesn't come in by mid-October you're in trouble with everyone."
Stafford, whose arm strength has been compared to that of John Elway and Brett Favre, is looking to become the first quarterback from Georgia to do much in the NFL since Fran Tarkenton left Athens almost 50 years ago.
Sanchez' 16 starts are about on a par with Ware, but at least Ware threw 1,074 passes at the University of Houston from 1987-'89 before flopping as the No. 7 pick in Detroit. Sanchez attempted 487.
And, Freeman went a mere 14-18 as an erratic 32-game starter in the Big 12.
"Sanchez is probably the riskiest," St. Louis vice president Tony Softli said. "The other guys have been starting since they were freshmen so they got three years in. He has 16 games. That's really scary."
The 18 scouts also identify the next-best bet to one day become a starter. Bomar led with five votes, followed by Stephen McGee with 2˝; Curtis Painter, Davis and White, each with 2; John Parker Wilson, 1˝, and Chase Daniel, 1. One scout withheld his vote, saying no candidate deserved it.
Not only must Davis overcome his status as a third-year junior but also widespread concern about his ability to handle an NFL playbook. Davis has acknowledged that he is learning disabled, and so it was not a shock when he scored merely 11 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test.
Although his score isn't that far off from the NFL average of about 19.5, it is extremely low for a quarterback. In the last 15 years, the only starting quarterbacks with scores of 15 or below have been Vince Young (15), Donovan McNabb (12), Charlie Batch (15) and Kordell Stewart (15). Seattle backup Seneca Wallace had a 10.
"(Davis) has a Freeman arm and he was more accurate than Freeman," said Shemy Schembechler, a scout for the Washington Redskins. "I mean, he can throw it. But it will be a different learning process with him that some offensive coordinator is going to have to adjust to if he's going to play for you."
Green Bay - The consensus three top quarterbacks in the National Football League draft will have to surmount their backgrounds in order to make it big.
So will Nate Davis, the rifle-armed prospect from Ball State.
It's a roll of the dice draft when it comes to quarterbacks. For the first time since 1990 it's an all-underclassmen board atop the position, a scenario that doesn't bode well for the half dozen clubs trying to find one.
"It is a risky business," said Eric DeCosta, director of player personnel for the Baltimore Ravens. "There's a statistic out there that a key indicator of (quarterbacks') success in the NFL is career starts. You want someone with experience."
Instead, teams have been studying a pair of third-year juniors, Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Kansas State's Josh Freeman, and Southern California's Mark Sanchez, another junior who spent a fourth season redshirting.
Since the NFL granted admission en masse to underclassmen in 1990, 43 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Sixteen of the 43, or 37.2%, have been underclassmen.
Of the 16, eight could be categorized as busts: Andre Ware (1990), Todd Marinovich ('91), Tommy Maddox ('92), Heath Shuler ('94), Ryan Leaf ('98), Tim Couch ('99), Rex Grossman ('03) and Alex Smith ('05).
The most successful of the 16 have been Ben Roethlisberger ('04), Drew Bledsoe ('93) and Michael Vick ('01), whose career was derailed by a 23-month prison term for dog-fighting conspiracy.
In January, USC coach Pete Carroll cited a "62% failure rate for underclassmen quarterbacks" after Sanchez bolted with 16 starts under his belt.
"I'm a huge résumé guy," said A.J. Smith, the San Diego Chargers' general manager. "He is extremely talented and I do think he will be terrific, but I don't have the (guts) if I was in that position to strike with him high. I've got to be 51 games, four bowl games like Philip Rivers.
"Unfortunately, somebody is going to have to take these guys. Because if you need one, you've got to make it happen."
Last year, the Atlanta Falcons hit the first-year jackpot with Matt Ryan at No. 3 just as the Ravens found a rookie starter in Joe Flacco at No. 18. Both spent five years in college, with 32 starts for Ryan and 26 for Flacco.
"With all due humbleness, it's very important to step back and take the whole picture into consideration," Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said. "The maturity level is a very big thing in my mind, especially for that position."
A Journal Sentinel poll of 18 personnel men suggested that the pecking order is established. Each was asked to list his favorites 1-2-3, with a first-place vote worth three points and so forth.
Stafford had 11 first-place votes and 46 points, followed by Sanchez with five and 39 and Freeman with two and 21. Rhett Bomar and Pat White each had a third-place vote.
"It's not the great year," Buffalo vice president Tom Modrak said. "You can find flies on all these guys. It gets to be a dilemma because there's certainly a year or two of training. But if the quarterback doesn't come in by mid-October you're in trouble with everyone."
Stafford, whose arm strength has been compared to that of John Elway and Brett Favre, is looking to become the first quarterback from Georgia to do much in the NFL since Fran Tarkenton left Athens almost 50 years ago.
Sanchez' 16 starts are about on a par with Ware, but at least Ware threw 1,074 passes at the University of Houston from 1987-'89 before flopping as the No. 7 pick in Detroit. Sanchez attempted 487.
And, Freeman went a mere 14-18 as an erratic 32-game starter in the Big 12.
"Sanchez is probably the riskiest," St. Louis vice president Tony Softli said. "The other guys have been starting since they were freshmen so they got three years in. He has 16 games. That's really scary."
The 18 scouts also identify the next-best bet to one day become a starter. Bomar led with five votes, followed by Stephen McGee with 2˝; Curtis Painter, Davis and White, each with 2; John Parker Wilson, 1˝, and Chase Daniel, 1. One scout withheld his vote, saying no candidate deserved it.
Not only must Davis overcome his status as a third-year junior but also widespread concern about his ability to handle an NFL playbook. Davis has acknowledged that he is learning disabled, and so it was not a shock when he scored merely 11 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test.
Although his score isn't that far off from the NFL average of about 19.5, it is extremely low for a quarterback. In the last 15 years, the only starting quarterbacks with scores of 15 or below have been Vince Young (15), Donovan McNabb (12), Charlie Batch (15) and Kordell Stewart (15). Seattle backup Seneca Wallace had a 10.
"(Davis) has a Freeman arm and he was more accurate than Freeman," said Shemy Schembechler, a scout for the Washington Redskins. "I mean, he can throw it. But it will be a different learning process with him that some offensive coordinator is going to have to adjust to if he's going to play for you."