Deberg_1990
10-06-2009, 10:39 AM
Why do i just get this feeling Greinke is going to get jobbed??
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1492136.html
Votes are due today, so it’s a good time to look at perhaps the most interesting American League Cy Young race in years.
Zack Greinke, with a strong cyber-push from various baseball observers, at one point looked like a near lock. He’s still the favorite, but the weekend put doubt back in the minds of some.
First, Greinke gave up four runs in six innings at Minnesota, a game shown on national TV, a game Greinke called his biggest of the season. The defense didn’t help him much, and there is no shame in giving up the key hit to MVP-to-be Joe Mauer. But, still: If there are voters looking for a reason to not vote for Greinke, they probably will cite an underwhelming final start.
Then came Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, who gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, winning his 19th game — a total that tied for the league lead — and finishing with a 2.49 ERA.
Greinke has the American League’s lowest ERA at 2.16, but he trails by three in wins. No AL Cy Young winner has trailed by three wins since the award split to each league in 1967, and that’s the issue.
The case for Zack
This one’s pretty easy, and steeped in statistics and anecdotes.
Greinke’s 2.16 ERA is the best in the American League by a third of a run, and the lowest since Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 2000. There are five seasons since the 1994 strike that an AL pitcher has led in ERA by a third of a run with 200 innings, and all five won the Cy Young.
Greinke has by far the best statistical case, leading the league in ERA and walks and hits per innings pitched, and ranking second in strikeouts, strikeouts per walks, “quality starts,” shutouts, complete games and batting average against. He’s also last in run support while pitching in front of what advanced metrics rate as the league’s worst defense and a bullpen with the highest ERA.
It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less.
Greinke had a 2.35 ERA in his no-decisions — that’s lower than anybody else’s overall ERA. Put another way, he has nine starts where he’s given up a total of 10 runs without getting a win.
There are some notions that Greinke hasn’t faced good enough competition, a silly thought when you consider he went 7-4 with a 1.50 ERA against winning teams.
Actually, Greinke has been so dominant this year that the real question shouldn’t be whether he’s the best pitcher in the league — of course he is — but to where his season ranks historically.
Here is the list of pitchers who have matched Greinke’s totals in innings, strikeouts and adjusted ERA+, which takes into account league and ballpark factors: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, Martinez and Roger Clemens.
Or, you can always go to Eric Wedge. He managed the AL’s last two Cy Young winners with Cleveland, and he called Greinke’s 15-strikeout demolition of the Indians in August the best game he’d ever seen pitched in the big leagues.
It was a good game, to be sure. But, depending on how you judge, it’s just the sixth-best game he pitched this season.
The case against Zack
The greatness of Greinke went national this year, but the rest of the country did not live the every-fifth-game holiday like Kansas City did.
No matter what we know about the misleading nature of wins, that category is historically tied closer to the Cy Young Award than any other — including ERA.
Eight of the 14 AL winners since the strike have led or tied for the league lead in wins. Only five have led in ERA, three of whom also led in wins.
Greinke’s 16 wins are three off the league leaders, and only one AL winner since the strike has trailed by more than one win. That was Martinez in 2000, when he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 217 innings — one of the best pitching seasons of all time.
For voters tied to wins, Hernandez provides good cover. He’s been better this season than many past Cy Young winners — tied for the lead with 19 wins, second with a 2.49 ERA, third with 238 2/3 innings, and fourth with 217 strikeouts. He’s the only pitcher to rank in the top five in each of those categories, and he has 23 “quality starts” in his last 24.
ESPN.com’s Cy Young predictor, put together by Rob Neyer and Bill James, has Hernandez winning.
Greinke pitched for one of the worst teams in the league, and the Royals were just 17-16 in his starts. If a voter can convince himself that Greinke’s stats don’t blow away the field, the Royals’ struggles may be the tie breaker that leans away from Greinke.
There are arguments to be made for others, too. Detroit’s Justin Verlander leads in wins, strikeouts and innings and won the Tigers’ biggest game of the year on three days’ rest on Sunday. Toronto’s Roy Halladay threw nine complete games and four shutouts with a 2.79 ERA. New York’s Mariano Rivera converted 44 of 46 saves for the best team in baseball, with 72 strikeouts and just 12 walks.
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1492136.html
Votes are due today, so it’s a good time to look at perhaps the most interesting American League Cy Young race in years.
Zack Greinke, with a strong cyber-push from various baseball observers, at one point looked like a near lock. He’s still the favorite, but the weekend put doubt back in the minds of some.
First, Greinke gave up four runs in six innings at Minnesota, a game shown on national TV, a game Greinke called his biggest of the season. The defense didn’t help him much, and there is no shame in giving up the key hit to MVP-to-be Joe Mauer. But, still: If there are voters looking for a reason to not vote for Greinke, they probably will cite an underwhelming final start.
Then came Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, who gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, winning his 19th game — a total that tied for the league lead — and finishing with a 2.49 ERA.
Greinke has the American League’s lowest ERA at 2.16, but he trails by three in wins. No AL Cy Young winner has trailed by three wins since the award split to each league in 1967, and that’s the issue.
The case for Zack
This one’s pretty easy, and steeped in statistics and anecdotes.
Greinke’s 2.16 ERA is the best in the American League by a third of a run, and the lowest since Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 2000. There are five seasons since the 1994 strike that an AL pitcher has led in ERA by a third of a run with 200 innings, and all five won the Cy Young.
Greinke has by far the best statistical case, leading the league in ERA and walks and hits per innings pitched, and ranking second in strikeouts, strikeouts per walks, “quality starts,” shutouts, complete games and batting average against. He’s also last in run support while pitching in front of what advanced metrics rate as the league’s worst defense and a bullpen with the highest ERA.
It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less.
Greinke had a 2.35 ERA in his no-decisions — that’s lower than anybody else’s overall ERA. Put another way, he has nine starts where he’s given up a total of 10 runs without getting a win.
There are some notions that Greinke hasn’t faced good enough competition, a silly thought when you consider he went 7-4 with a 1.50 ERA against winning teams.
Actually, Greinke has been so dominant this year that the real question shouldn’t be whether he’s the best pitcher in the league — of course he is — but to where his season ranks historically.
Here is the list of pitchers who have matched Greinke’s totals in innings, strikeouts and adjusted ERA+, which takes into account league and ballpark factors: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, Martinez and Roger Clemens.
Or, you can always go to Eric Wedge. He managed the AL’s last two Cy Young winners with Cleveland, and he called Greinke’s 15-strikeout demolition of the Indians in August the best game he’d ever seen pitched in the big leagues.
It was a good game, to be sure. But, depending on how you judge, it’s just the sixth-best game he pitched this season.
The case against Zack
The greatness of Greinke went national this year, but the rest of the country did not live the every-fifth-game holiday like Kansas City did.
No matter what we know about the misleading nature of wins, that category is historically tied closer to the Cy Young Award than any other — including ERA.
Eight of the 14 AL winners since the strike have led or tied for the league lead in wins. Only five have led in ERA, three of whom also led in wins.
Greinke’s 16 wins are three off the league leaders, and only one AL winner since the strike has trailed by more than one win. That was Martinez in 2000, when he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 217 innings — one of the best pitching seasons of all time.
For voters tied to wins, Hernandez provides good cover. He’s been better this season than many past Cy Young winners — tied for the lead with 19 wins, second with a 2.49 ERA, third with 238 2/3 innings, and fourth with 217 strikeouts. He’s the only pitcher to rank in the top five in each of those categories, and he has 23 “quality starts” in his last 24.
ESPN.com’s Cy Young predictor, put together by Rob Neyer and Bill James, has Hernandez winning.
Greinke pitched for one of the worst teams in the league, and the Royals were just 17-16 in his starts. If a voter can convince himself that Greinke’s stats don’t blow away the field, the Royals’ struggles may be the tie breaker that leans away from Greinke.
There are arguments to be made for others, too. Detroit’s Justin Verlander leads in wins, strikeouts and innings and won the Tigers’ biggest game of the year on three days’ rest on Sunday. Toronto’s Roy Halladay threw nine complete games and four shutouts with a 2.79 ERA. New York’s Mariano Rivera converted 44 of 46 saves for the best team in baseball, with 72 strikeouts and just 12 walks.