Looney: Risk vs Reward

[LaChapelle]

RISK VS. REWARD
December 1st – 6:05 AM

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2009/12/01/insider_blog_risk_vs_reward/

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[Mr. Laz]

thanks for the post but the story is sort of missing a bit without the charts.

Column - Josh Looney
Insider Blog: Risk vs. Reward
Dec 01, 2009, 6:05:06 AM

RISK VS. REWARD

December 1st – 6:05 AM

Jamaal Charles carries the label of “fumbler” around with him. He’s fought that tag for quite some time now. Regardless of how many big plays he makes, touchdowns he scores or ankles he breaks, as soon as that football hits the ground the dreaded “f word” gets dropped along with it.

Is the characterization unfair, or is it fitting? Better yet, does the reward of Charles’ game outweigh the risk of him fumbling?

Charles has put the football on the ground four times to date over his two-year NFL career, twice this season and twice a season ago. Four fumbles certainly isn’t very many considering that six NFL running backs have coughed up the football four or more times this season alone (Steve Slaton leads the league with seven). But, on the other hand, Charles has also seenlimited touches throughout his career until about three weeks ago.

Maybe the classification comes from his time at Texas when Charles coughed up the football twice against Oklahoma in 2007. That version of the Red River Rivalry was the closest matchup between the two schools in over a decade (a 28-21 OU victory) and Charles’ fumble inside the Oklahoma five-yard line was disastrous. Mack Brown even called in legendary Longhorn rusher Earl Campbell to talk ball protection with J.C.

Or maybe the tag comes from this past preseason where Charles struggled to hold on to the football and an exchange between the runner and a wired Todd Haley was broadcast on national television via the NFL Network.

Haley: “Did you fumble yesterday?”

Charles: “Yeah.”

Haley: “What, he just slapped it.”

Charles: “That was my fault. I didn’t cover the ball enough.”

Haley: “You better take care of my football, or you cannot play.”

Regardless of how the perception got legs, it’s running. Charles has already been labeled a “fumbler” and it will likely stick with him until he goes on some ungodly streak of carries without a fumble. He carries the title, but is it completely accurate at this point in his career? Let’s take a look.

Below is a table of 32 NFL running backs. Each running back is currently the leading rusher on their respective team. The table breaks down each of the runners’ total touches (rushes, receptions and returns) and fumbles, ultimately being sorted by fumbles per touch from best to worst. Also, keep in mind that these are not fumbles lost, just fumbles in general.

http://www.kcchiefs.com/media/images/B8D8657A747D4CE5873FD256D35CF272.JPG?0.4172797407130926


As you can see, Charles has the eighth-highest fumble percentage of any leading rusher. As a football coach, you definitely don’t want your runner to rank in the league’s top-10 in that category, but is the risk worth the reward?

For instance, Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has put the football on the ground the third-most times per carry, yet you hardly hear anyone characterize Peterson as a “fumbler.” Why? Because he’s among the league’s elite and the reward for Peterson carrying the football far outweighs the risk of the ball bouncing on the turf 2.33% of the time. With that, the next question is where Charles’ reward ranks in relation to his fumble risk?

For part II of our analysis, let’s pull up another chart. This chart represents the 10 most explosive runners from the players listed in our fumble chart. The table ranks each player by runs of 10 yards or more in relation to their total rushes.

http://www.kcchiefs.com/media/images/26FB3FF62FF2475DB99E4544878D5A70.JPG?0.743416516385975


Charles ranks fourth in the league in explosive runs with a 10+-yard gain 15.38% of the time. His reward is high. For example, RBs Matt Forte and Laurence Maroney sandwich Charles on the fumble chart, but rank 47th (6.06%) and 31st (8.62%) when it comes to explosive runs.

On the flip side, a runner like Arizona’s Beanie Wells has a slightly higher mark on explosiveness than Charles (15.74%), but his fumble rate is a full percent higher than Charles’ (2.56%). Then there backs such as Michael Turner who, in the view of many, is in the category of top rushers. Turner fumbles the ball more than Charles (2.20%) and is less explosive (15th in the NFL – 13.0%).

In fact, the only player who turns in more explosive runs, with less fumbles per carry than Charles, is Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams.

Would we all like Charles to be the runner that many compare him too, Chris Johnson? Sure. Johnson’s risk/reward according to this data is flat-out ridiculous, a 0.40% fumble rate coupled with explosive runs on 14.75% of his ¬¬carries.

But right now, being Jamaal Charles isn’t that bad either. He’s done wonders in just three weeks to spark the Chiefs offense. Charles officially became the team’s leading rusher yesterday, passing former starter Larry Johnson’s 377-yard mark in almost half the amount of carries. Charles now has 78 carries for 406 yards on the season to lead the team.
What we can conclude is that Charles may never be a player that rattles off 200 touches without a fumble, but what he offers on the field far exceeds his current fumbling risk. Plus, he’s only in his second NFL season and three games into his role as a feature back. From here, anything can happen. The story on Charles is only beginning to unfold, but his greatest weakness isn’t as great as many perceive it to be.

Yesterday, in his first public comments since returning from a disastrous four turnover performance in San Diego, Chiefs head coach Todd Haley still made sure he praised Charles – the player whose fumble began the turnover barrage.
“Jamaal has done nothing but improve since I’ve been here,” Haley said. “He’s a guy that I’m excited about.

“I don’t want to go back and talk about college and Jamaal because I go by what I see,” Haley continued. “Here’s a kid we put through a little adversity early and sat him and he’s fought and pushed and everybody is getting a little excited about him. I’m not going to let that take away from the improvement he’s made and the upside I’ve seen.”

**Other notable players not listed on the fumble chart**
• Oakland RB Darren McFadden has fumbled the football four times, the third-post among all NFL running backs. Overall, he has just 77 touches making his fumble percentage a whopping 5.19%. The former number four overall pick doesn’t rank in the league’s top 50.
• Charles’ former backfield mate Larry Johnson has dropped the ball two times over 170 touches, for a fumble ratio of 1.18% (his explosive runs rank 27th at 9.61%).

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[LaChapelle]

Thanks Laz

[tyler360]

That is a very interesting article. Wonder what our coach thinks of it?

[SDChiefs]

Good Post

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Very interesting...

Thanks for posting.

[Hammock Parties]

That is a very interesting article. Wonder what our coach thinks of it?

http://i33.tinypic.com/vfz8eb.gif

[Chiefnj2]

Good job by Looney

[Shag]

For instance, Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has put the football on the ground the third-most times per carry, yet you hardly hear anyone characterize Peterson as a “fumbler.” Why? Because he’s among the league’s elite and the reward for Peterson carrying the football far outweighs the risk of the ball bouncing on the turf 2.33% of the time. With that, the next question is where Charles’ reward ranks in relation to his fumble risk?


Maybe it's because I live in MN, but I hear AP talked about as a fumbler all the time...

[tyler360]

http://i33.tinypic.com/vfz8eb.gif

ROFL

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

The reward is greater; Charles needs reps and lots of them. He's not going to correct his technique in practice alone.

[talastan]

I can only imagine if Charles had been able to carry the rock all season how much better our running game would've looked. Yes he fumbles, but the fact that he is a threat every time he carries the ball is well worth the risk. Any idea as to what his total yds might be had he carried the ball since the start of the season?

[InChiefsHeaven]

i like Josh Looney's takes, they actually seem well thought out, even if the are homeristic as hell.

...WAY better than Gretz.

[Demonpenz]

if you play Fantasy football you are aware of AP's fumbling
`

[HemiEd]

Good article. I think Chiefs fans are a little spoiled, having Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, neither of which hardly ever fumbled.

[Fritz88]

The reward aint' worth shit when your fumble is used to score against you and kill your team's momentum.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

The reward aint' worth shit when your fumble is used to score against you and kill your team's momentum.

Charles redeemed himself, and he wasn't the guy snapping the ball over the QB's head or the guy throwing the football to the lineman's ankles.

That game has PLENTY O' FAIL to go around.