Daniel Jeremiah breaks down DB's

[Quesadilla Joe]

In this podcast http://www.movethesticks.com/wp-content/uploads/podcasts/20100324_db_talk.m4a

Interesting note here.... 38% of the NFL's starting safeties were drafted in the 5th, 6th, 7th rounds or were UDFA's, while only 14% of the NFL's starting safeties were drafted in the first round..

Also says he has not talked to a team who has a first round grade on Taylor Mays because the most important thing a safety must have is instincts... said he would rather have a safety that runs a 4.6 40 who has great instincts than a freak athlete with average instincts.

RT @Alexi_G: You'll really draft Nate Allen before Taylor Mays?> I'm not alone... don't know one team that has Mays over Allen
http://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/11010659542

[Mecca]

I bet I can name one that does...Dallas Cowboys.

[Coogs]

14% in round 1. Draft is 7 rounds. 14 X 7 = 98.
38 % in rounds 5, 6, and 7. 14 X 3 = 42 which is pretty close to 38.
:hmmm:

[Mecca]

Yet Jeremiah's claim to fame is scouting for a team that drafted a safety in the 1st round.

[AustinChief]

14% in round 1. Draft is 7 rounds. 14 X 7 = 98.
38 % in rounds 5, 6, and 7. 14 X 3 = 42 which is pretty close to 38.
:hmmm:

let's clear this up a bit...

32 teams = 64 starting safeties...

14%= 9 from 1st round
38%= 24 from 5,6,7 rounds

so let's assume that rounds 2,3,4 got 27 or 42%

leaving 4 undrafted...(just a guess)

since I don't have the data broken down by round, I will just break it evenly...

1- 14%
2- 14%
3-14%
4- 14%
5- 13%
6- 13%
7- 12%
UD- 6%


so all this (probably incorrect) data suggests is that you are JUST slightly more likely to be a STARTING safety if drafted in a higher round...

not really anything too suprising or AT ALL useful... this guy is an EX scout right?

[-King-]

Yet Jeremiah's claim to fame is scouting for a team that drafted a safety in the 1st round.

It's not like he said that safeties shouldn't be picked in the 1st, he just said that usually they arent.



He said that Berry is very worth of a top 5 selection BTW.

[Mecca]

Jeremiah is good when he's talking about what his friends around the league think, his actual player evaluations leave a lot to be desired in my view.

[-King-]

let's clear this up a bit...

32 teams = 64 starting safeties...

14%= 9 from 1st round
38%= 24 from 5,6,7 rounds

so let's assume that rounds 2,3,4 got 27 or 42%

leaving 4 undrafted...(just a guess)

since I don't have the data broken down by round, I will just break it evenly...

1- 14%
2- 14%
3-14%
4- 14%
5- 13%
6- 13%
7- 12%
UD- 6%


so all this (probably incorrect) data suggests is that you are JUST slightly more likely to be a STARTING safety if drafted in a higher round...

not really anything too suprising or AT ALL useful... this guy is an EX scout right?

Yeah, he was just breaking it down like you did. I don't think he was trying to make a point other than that teams consider corners a more premium position than safeties which is pretty obvious.

[Jamie]

let's clear this up a bit...
14%= 9 from 1st round

And that number looks even better when you take into consideration how few safeties get taken in the first round, which by my count is 12 in that last ten years. Also of note is that half of those twelve have played in a Pro Bowl.

[Coogs]

let's clear this up a bit...

32 teams = 64 starting safeties...

14%= 9 from 1st round
38%= 24 from 5,6,7 rounds

so let's assume that rounds 2,3,4 got 27 or 42%

leaving 4 undrafted...(just a guess)

since I don't have the data broken down by round, I will just break it evenly...

1- 14%
2- 14%
3-14%
4- 14%
5- 13%
6- 13%
7- 12%
UD- 6%


so all this (probably incorrect) data suggests is that you are JUST slightly more likely to be a STARTING safety if drafted in a higher round...

not really anything too suprising or AT ALL useful... this guy is an EX scout right?

Nice! :clap:

[Dave Lane]

I think it would be far more interesting to see where the ProBowl safeties are drafted at. Maybe the last 10 years. I do agree with the articles premise which is safety is a position you can fill anywhere in the draft. I want a real playmaker not a guy who makes 5 tackles a game.

[Chiefnj2]

I think it would be far more interesting to see where the ProBowl safeties are drafted at. Maybe the last 10 years. I do agree with the articles premise which is safety is a position you can fill anywhere in the draft. I want a real playmaker not a guy who makes 5 tackles a game.

Last year:

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php?/weblog/entry/2010_pro_bowl_talent_found_in_each_round_of_the_nfl_draft/

Only one of the six safeties was drafted in the first round, but none of the players selected to fill that position in the 2010 Pro Bowl were drafted later than the 64th player. All-time great Ed Reed was the 24th player selected in the 2002 NFL draft. Second rounders include: Jairus Byrd, 42nd player in 2009, Nick Collins 51st player in 2005, Darren Sharper, 60th player in 1997, and Brian Dawkins, 61st player in 1996. Adrian Wilson was drafted in the 3rd round, the 64th player of 2001.

[Mr. Laz]

breaking out the math .... starting ... to ... fall .... asleep ... must .. prop eyelids ... open ...

http://www.maniacworld.com/drunken-tape-prank.jpg

[L.A. Chieffan]

and berry aint gonna last as long as reed did...

[Chiefnj2]

2005 Pro Bowl Strong Safeties
Name Team Drafted Rnd Pick Plyr Team College
Troy Polamalu Steelers 2003 1 16 16 Steelers USC
Mike Brown Bears 2000 2 8 39 Bears Nebraska
Roy Williams Cowboys 2002 1 8 8 Cowboys Oklahoma

Strong Safeties: The top-notch modern day strong safety usually combines athleticism with great strength and run-stopping ability. The best go in the top two rounds of the draft.

2005 Pro Bowl Free Safeties
Name Team Drafted Rnd Pick Plyr Team College
John Lynch Broncos 1993 3 26 82 Buccaneers Stanford
Bob Sanders Colts 2004 2 12 44 Colts Iowa
Darren Sharper Vikings 1997 2 30 60 Packers William & Mary

Free Safeties: Quality free safeties are often players with ball-hawking skills that don't have the speed to play cornerback. Frequently they are converts from other positions. Teams rarely need to expend a high draft pick to obtain a quality free safety.

[Mecca]

Difference being Berry actually has CB speed.