The Drafturbator's Are Forever Going To Hate Walter Football Now

[Marco Polo]

NFL Draft: Are Safeties Worth a Top Five Draft Pick?

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftsafeties.php

Atlanta and Kansas City general managers Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli worked together in New England. This March during the NFL Owners' Meeting, the two were discussing the Chiefs' options at No. 5.

Dimitroff brought up Berry in a conversation logged by Peter King.

"Scott, this guy's your pick," Dimitroff said.

Pioli apparently didn't agree. "You know how I feel about safeties that early."

Pioli's not the only one. There has been only one safety chosen with a top-five NFL Draft pick since 1992 (Sean Taylor). The last time a safety was selected in the top three was Eric Turner back in 1991.

Ironically, the two top safeties in recent memory, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, weren't even taken in the top 15.

Why is this? Why do safeties fall on Draft Day? Quite simply: The safety position is not really that important. In fact, it's quite insignificant when compared to quarterbacks, left tackles and pass-rushing defensive ends.

Of course, we'll need numbers to back this claim up. Let's take a look at every single safety drafted in the top 15 picks since 1991. I'm going to list whether each player was a hit or bust, as well as the original team's record with each player on the roster. These players are listed chronologically, starting from the most recent:

<table border="2" width="98%"> <tbody><tr> <td width="20%">Safety
</td> <td width="10%">Draft No.
</td> <td width="8%">Team
</td> <td width="20%">Original Team's Record
</td> <td width="42%">Hit, OK or Bust
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> LaRon Landry
</td> <td> 2007, No. 6
</td> <td> WAS
</td> <td> 21-27
</td> <td> OK - Has played fine at times, but blows tons of coverages. Not nearly the player the Redskins thought they were getting at No. 6.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Huff
</td> <td> 2006, No. 7
</td> <td> OAK
</td> <td> 16-48
</td> <td> OK - Has had an up-and-down career, but he's been benched in the past. Again, not the great player the Raiders were expecting at No. 7 overall.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Donte Whitner
</td> <td> 2006, No. 8
</td> <td> BUF
</td> <td> 27-37
</td> <td> OK - A decent strong safety, but not anything special.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sean Taylor
</td> <td> 2004, No. 5
</td> <td> WAS
</td> <td> 26-33
</td> <td> Hit - What a shame his life ended so early.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Roy Williams
</td> <td> 2002, No. 8
</td> <td> DAL
</td> <td> 55-44
</td> <td> Bust - Became famous with his hard hits, but was torched in coverage week in and week out.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Patrick Bates
</td> <td> 1993, No. 12
</td> <td> OAK
</td> <td> 27-21
</td> <td> Bust - Not a great pick by Al Davis; lasted only four years in the NFL. Amazingly, there were no top-15 safeties from 1994 to 2001.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Turner
</td> <td> 1991, No. 2
</td> <td> CLE
</td> <td> 36-44
</td> <td> Hit - A 2-time Pro Bowler.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Stanley Richard
</td> <td> 1991, No. 9
</td> <td> SD
</td> <td> 34-30
</td> <td> OK - A solid safety who played eight years. No Pro Bowls.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>

</td> <td>

</td> <td>

</td> <td>

</td> <td>

</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Totals
</td> <td>

</td> <td>

</td> <td> 242-284
</td> <td> Hits: 2; OK: 4; Busts: 2
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

No team that drafted a safety in the top 15 since 1991 has won a Super Bowl with that player on its roster. And as you can see, teams that spent top-15 picks on safeties were 242-284 (.460) with that prospect on the roster.

Furthermore, if you exclude the records of Roy Williams and Patrick Bates, who didn't contribute much to their team's success (Williams struggled when the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 - thus his bloated record), teams that used top-15 picks on safeties were 160-219 (.422) with that prospect on the roster. And here I thought top-15 picks were supposed to help each team improve.

But wait a second. Eric Berry is obviously going to be better than Donte Whitner and LaRon Landry, correct? We can only speculate, but it's pretty much safe to say that Berry will be a great safety in the NFL. Does that change things?

Well, let's look at the two hits. The (both) late Sean Taylor and Eric Turner were Pro Bowl-caliber safeties. The Redskins and Browns were a combined 62-77 (.446) with them on the roster. Moreover, Taylor and Turner helped their teams reach only two playoff appearances in nine combined seasons in Washington and Cleveland, respectively.

Now, you may exclaim, "It's not Taylor's fault the Redskins were 21-27 with him on the roster; they had tons of other holes!" And that's precisely the point of this article - as good as Taylor was, he just didn't impact the result of Washington's games. The safety position is just not important.

For Kansas City fans who still want their team to select Berry: If you're content with the Chiefs winning 44.6 percent of their games, then by all means, ask Pioli to change his mind about taking safeties that early.

[Mr. Laz]

OK - Walter's is obsessed with Pioli.

[spanky 52]

So if we take Berry and he's a hit, that's great. And if he's okay, that's okay. And if he's a bust, well as Chief fans we're used to that crap. I'm hoping the alleged conversation between Pioli and Dimitroff is a smoke screen.

[milkman]

You know, it doesn't make one ****ing bit of difference how good the player you select is, if you don't build a good team around him, he's never going to be the kind of impact player you envision.

Archie Manning was a great QB, the most critical position even in the 70s, and the saints were stil losers.

And I can garengoddamntee you, it wasn't Archie Manning's fault.

Stupid, stupid , stupid ****ing analysis.

[ChiefsCountry]

The funny thing is the two that went in the top 5 were major hits. Which is where we would be picking.

[the Talking Can]

pretty sorry ass "logic" on display in that article...

[Brock]

draft a quarterback.

[Mecca]

Who thinks it's in Pioli's nature to take a safety that high?

That's the real question.

[Titty Meat]

Who thinks it's in Pioli's nature to take a safety that high?

That's the real question.

I don't think he's as stupid as everyone wants to make it out to be. What was he suppose to say? " Yea I really like Berry i'm going to draft him at 5." Then a team like Cleveland trades up to 4 to get him.

[Mecca]

I'm not going off what he said there, I'm going on what he is, taking a safety 5 is everything he's not.

[orange]

OK - Walter's is obsessed with Pioli.

Actually, he's obsessed with ChiefsPlanet. This site is responsible for a huge chunk of his input. Last year, for example, he had a live webchat a couple weeks before the draft. I think about three quarters of the questions he got were from CP. There was a thread here simultaneously tracking the chat. I even posted a question, but he never got around to it; he got caught up in a discussion about whether Branden Albert was a left tackle. He had the Chiefs taking Monroe, I think, but he got turned around by CPers.

....

My question - the one he never answered:

"I'm Tyson Jackson. I'm unique in this draft. There are no other 5-techniques worthy of even a 2nd rounder, let alone a 1st. And there are several teams converting to the 3-4 this year. How in the world do I last to #12?"

[Ralphy Boy]

....

My question - the one he never answered:

"I'm Tyson Jackson. I'm unique in this draft. There are no other 5-techniques worthy of even a 2nd rounder, let alone a 1st. And there are several teams converting to the 3-4 this year. How in the world do I last to #12?"

He probably didn't answer you because he was just as clueless as anyone else is outside of the organization about TJ going that high.

Just like he will be this year when we pick Dan Williams at #5.

[DaneMcCloud]

I've never expected Pioli to take Berry.

It'll be Dan Williams.

[Mr. Laz]

Actually, he's obsessed with ChiefsPlanet. This site is responsible for a huge chunk of his input. Last year, for example, he had a live webchat a couple weeks before the draft. I think about three quarters of the questions he got were from CP. There was a thread here simultaneously tracking the chat. I even posted a question, but he never got around to it; he got caught up in a discussion about whether Branden Albert was a left tackle. He had the Chiefs taking Monroe, I think, but he got turned around by CPers.

....

My question - the one he never answered:

"I'm Tyson Jackson. I'm unique in this draft. There are no other 5-techniques worthy of even a 2nd rounder, let alone a 1st. And there are several teams converting to the 3-4 this year. How in the world do I last to #12?"
nice, thanks for the info.

i've always had a suspicion that someone around here worked at Walter's because of he sarcastic comments that seems so CP-like


i figure it's mecca and that's why so many 'wash his balls' daily

[Nightfyre]

Frankly, a safety is just too injury prone to justify picking at 5, imo. It doesn't matter how durable the player is. They are screaming fast players throwing their whole selves at another player, especially the way berry plays. He will get himself injured in the NFL. Compare that to a lineman or a linebacker or a quarterback who can play for a decade without injuries and really, its no comparison.

[milkman]

Frankly, a safety is just too injury prone to justify picking at 5, imo. It doesn't matter how durable the player is. They are screaming fast players throwing their whole selves at another player, especially the way berry plays. He will get himself injured in the NFL. Compare that to a lineman or a linebacker or a quarterback who can play for a decade without injuries and really, its no comparison.

Okay, Peter.

[ChiefsCountry]

Well orange is a dumbass and laz is just ballwashing his hate
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=205971

[orange]

Well orange is a dumbass and laz is just ballwashing his hate
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=205971

Blow me. Where the hell did I hate on him? I simply posted the FACT that he gets a lot of input from CP.

Thanks for posting the thread which CONFIRMS IT.

Chiefs fans totally raiding this Q&A so far...

[Comment From kcrockaholic4life]
Hey Scott why do you think the Chiefs will pass on Aaron Curry and select Eugene Monroe?

[Sfeihc]

Dane, you maybe on to something with the Dan Williams pick. He won't last past the Donks or Dolphins and he fits Pioli's m.o. so it wouldn't shock me at all. I hold out hope every year for the trade down and maybe with all the Chiefs picks Pioli might be able to turn 8 into 12 and stack this roster with some talent.

[ChiefsCountry]

Blow me. Where the hell did I hate on him? I simply posted the FACT that he gets a lot of input from CP.

Thanks for posting the thread which CONFIRMS IT.

Its not Walter Football you dipshit Bronco fan. Its NFLDraftCountdown.

[doomy3]

Blow me. Where the hell did I hate on him? I simply posted the FACT that he gets a lot of input from CP.

Thanks for posting the thread which CONFIRMS IT.

nfldraftcountdown is Scott Wright's site.

[milkman]

Its not Walter Football you dipshit Bronco fan. Its NFLDraftCountdown.

nfldraftcountdown is Scott Wright's site.

Details.....
Details...

[orange]

nfldraftcountdown is Scott Wright's site.

Okay. My mistake.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

What this article fails to address is the fact that Troy Polamalu was not picked in the top 15 but look at what he means to the Steelers. He makes a huge difference in wehter they win or lose. I don't have the stats but I've seen them and they are alosing team without him and a winning team with him. In hindsight , should he have been a top 5 pick. I think everyone would agree , yes. And the same can be said for Ed Reed to some degree. If Berry is that type of player then he is worthy of #5.

[Dave Lane]

No you miss the point. You don't have to pick a safety in the top 15 to get a good one. Thats the point that apparently everyone is missing. Bottom line you don't know. Take a real playmaker and leave safety on the backburner.

I'm of the school of QB, playstopping OT or a playmaking disruptive defensive player. I disagree that Berry is that player. Maybe he will be.

[Chiefnj2]

You could do that analysis with any position. A top 15 pick at any position doesn't magically change an entire team. YOU NEED A TEAM. The QBOTF is going to bust without protection and support. Premier DE's have been coming up short in recent years - Jackson, Maybin and Ayers (too early to tell, but not very good rookie years), Gholston, Jamaal Anderson and Derrick Harvey.

[Rain Man]

draft a quarterback.


Yeah.

[ToxSocks]

Stupid article. Judging Ed Reed's value by the Raven's W/L column automatically dismisses the article.

[Chiefshrink]

However if you were guaranteed that Berry was the next Ed Reed would you still take him at 5? I realize there are no guarantees but if God whispered in your ear that this is the next Ed Reed would you still take him over the other top 5-6 players in this draft?

[Chiefshrink]

The question really comes to if the Ravens had the 5th pick and had to do it all over again with Ed Reed sitting there at 5 would they pick him?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Frankly, a safety is just too injury prone to justify picking at 5, imo. It doesn't matter how durable the player is. They are screaming fast players throwing their whole selves at another player, especially the way berry plays. He will get himself injured in the NFL. Compare that to a lineman or a linebacker or a quarterback who can play for a decade without injuries and really, its no comparison.

This is fucking unsubstantiated hog shit from Peter King. He only wrote that b/c of Bob Sanders.

[The Franchise]

The question really comes to if the Ravens had the 5th pick and had to do it all over again with Ed Reed sitting there at 5 would they pick him?

It wouldn't matter....because he'd be gone before they could pick.

[Nightfyre]

This is fucking unsubstantiated hog shit from Peter King. He only wrote that b/c of Bob Sanders.

Polamalu has missed 17% of his games. Reed has missed 8% and is as healthy as safeties come. Sanders may not be as much of an exception as you would like to believe.
Posted via Mobile Device

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Polamalu has missed 17% of his games. Reed has missed 8% and is as healthy as safeties come. Sanders may not be as much of an exception as you would like to believe.
Posted via Mobile Device

Brady has missed 12%
Montana missed almost 20%
Roaf missed a percentage equivalent to Reed.
Tony Boselli basically missed his entire career.

You can play this game all day.

[The Franchise]

Brady has missed 12%
Montana missed almost 20%
Roaf missed a percentage equivalent to Reed.
Tony Boselli basically missed his entire career.

You can play this game all day.

You can't make any sense with this guy. He's the guy that wants to trade Charles now while his value is high.

[Nightfyre]

Brady has missed 12%
Montana missed almost 20%
Roaf missed a percentage equivalent to Reed.
Tony Boselli basically missed his entire career.

You can play this game all day.

A safety already has a minimized impact on the game, however, relative to a quarterback, pass rusher, receiver or tackle.
Posted via Mobile Device

['Hamas' Jenkins]

A safety already has a minimized impact on the game, however, relative to a quarterback, pass rusher, receiver or tackle.
Posted via Mobile Device

Yeah, if those players are equal prospects to the safety. But there aren't any of those in this draft, and we aren't drafting a QB, so your argument fails on that end, too.

[MOhillbilly]

FS is one of the most important positions on a NFL D. To say otherwise is foolish. A good/great fs takes pressure of the entire defense be it in pass or run coverage. You dont have to put players out on an 'island' when your FS is a stud.
Boggles my fuckin mind.....:spock:

And why would pioli show his hand on any player at this point? Its all smoke and mirrors.

[Nightfyre]

Yeah, if those players are equal prospects to the safety. But there aren't any of those in this draft, and we aren't drafting a QB, so your argument fails on that end, too.

But on a weighted basis, would his impact be as substantial as someone in a more important position? That would be difficult given the nature of his position, the likely duration of his career and the potential amount of time lost due to injury.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Chiefnj2]

Yeah, if those players are equal prospects to the safety. But there aren't any of those in this draft, and we aren't drafting a QB, so your argument fails on that end, too.

There is a receiver - Bryant.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

But on a weighted basis, would his impact be as substantial as someone in a more important position? That would be difficult given the nature of his position, the likely duration of his career and the potential amount of time lost due to injury.
Posted via Mobile Device

1) He's not going to lose any more time than any other player.
2) Safeties are more important than ever in a pass happy league that de-emphasizes contact at the LOS
3) Safeties play effectively into their mid-late 30s (Darren Sharper, Brian Dawkins) whereas skill position players suffer precipitous declines.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

There is a receiver - Bryant.

No, there isn't. He's a flake with speed, scheme, and character concerns.

[MOhillbilly]

But on a weighted basis, would his impact be as substantial as someone in a more important position? That would be difficult given the nature of his position, the likely duration of his career and the potential amount of time lost due to injury.
Posted via Mobile Device

on this team? FS at 5 or QB. if wishes were fishes (be it stud NT,MLB,rush OLB none available) we would all cast nets.

If berry is at 5 you take him. if not you take clausen(aint gonna happen).

[DrRyan]

For the life of me, I cannot get this "you cannot draft a safety in the top 5" stance. If I understand correctly drafting the top rated player at 5 is too high but it is acceptable at 7-8? Extremely flawed rationale IMO.

At this point(at any point really) it makes little sense to do anything but draft the best available player. The Ravens are the perfect example of this. In the past two years they have drafted Micheal Oher(BPA), Paul Kruger(a player more valuable than his draft position) and Ray Rice(now a top 5 RB when they were already stacked in the running game).

Just draft the BPA every round and the Chiefs will be better...or, we could reach for a player like Bulaga at #5 and continue to draft in the 5-15 range and out of the playoffs for the near future.

[Brock]

It would be more accurate to say "Teams don't draft safeties in the top 5", because don't.

[Nightfyre]

1) He's not going to lose any more time than any other player.
2) Safeties are more important than ever in a pass happy league that de-emphasizes contact at the LOS
3) Safeties play effectively into their mid-late 30s (Darren Sharper, Brian Dawkins) whereas skill position players suffer precipitous declines.

1) Have you done analysis that indicates that big hitter safeties have a comparable probability of injury and comparable careers to these other players? If so, I'm all ears. I'm betting pioli has done such an analysis.

2) But still not as important as a pass rush, pass rush mitigation, or qb.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Nightfyre]

on this team? FS at 5 or QB. if wishes were fishes (be it stud NT,MLB,rush OLB none available) we would all cast nets.

If berry is at 5 you take him. if not you take clausen(aint gonna happen).

To me, depending of course on the way the draft falls, clausen, then berry if clausen is unavailable. Since there are no premier nts or pass rushers.

Edit: well, actually I'd prefer to trade down, then clausen, then berry.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Dave Lane]

However if you were guaranteed that Berry was the next Ed Reed would you still take him at 5? I realize there are no guarantees but if God whispered in your ear that this is the next Ed Reed would you still take him over the other top 5-6 players in this draft?

I'll take him at 5 IF you guarantee he's a young Ed Reed

[MOhillbilly]

I'll take him at 5 IF you guarantee he's a young Ed Reed

ill take him at 5 if he projects anywhere close to where reed did pre-draft.

[DeezNutz]

I'll take him at 5 IF you guarantee he's a young Ed Reed

I'll take Okung at 5 IF you guarantee he's a young Willie Roaf.

We can play this game for some time, too...

['Hamas' Jenkins]

1) Have you done analysis that indicates that big hitter safeties have a comparable probability of injury and comparable careers to these other players? If so, I'm all ears. I'm betting pioli has done such an analysis.

2) But still not as important as a pass rush, pass rush mitigation, or qb.
Posted via Mobile Device

1) Berry isn't an in the box SS, so this line of thinking is completely absurd. Look at the durability of the following players:

Brian Dawkins
Ed Reed
Darren Sharper


2) This is a diversion and wholly irrelevant to the topic at hand. There are no elite tackles in this draft, no elite pass rusher, and we aren't drafting a QB. You are literally arguing against no one unless you are trying to make the claim that one of the LTs in this draft is worth sacrificing Albert.

[MOhillbilly]

2) This is a diversion and wholly irrelevant to the topic at hand. There are no elite tackles in this draft, no elite pass rusher, and we aren't drafting a QB. You are literally arguing against no one unless you are trying to make the claim that one of the LTs in this draft is worth sacrificing Albert.

come on guy youve been here long enough to know this is what we do here till the dust settles.:)

[BigChiefFan]

As long as we don't take Bulugua whale at number 5, I can live with the pick.

[The Franchise]

As long as we don't take an OT at number 5, I can live with the pick.

FYP

['Hamas' Jenkins]

As long as we don't take Bulugua whale at number 5, I can live with the pick.

McClain, Bryant, Bulaga, Davis, or Okung would all be monumentally fucking stupid picks.

[Nightfyre]

1) Berry isn't an in the box SS, so this line of thinking is completely absurd. Look at the durability of the following players:

Brian Dawkins
Ed Reed
Darren Sharper


2) This is a diversion and wholly irrelevant to the topic at hand. There are no elite tackles in this draft, no elite pass rusher, and we aren't drafting a QB. You are literally arguing against no one unless you are trying to make the claim that one of the LTs in this draft is worth sacrificing Albert.

No, I would argue that trading down is the correct course of action, as I've made abundantly clear. And Berry, while an impressive safety prospect, is not the player from this draft whom will have the biggest impact on an organization.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Dave Lane]

I'll take Okung at 5 IF you guarantee he's a young Willie Roaf.

We can play this game for some time, too...

OK so if Berry is Reed and Okung is Roaf who would you take at #5?

I know who I'd take

[Brock]

OK so if Berry is Reed and Okung is Roaf who would you take at #5?

I know who I'd take

What if Albert is Walter Jones?

[Dave Lane]

What if Jaquan Morgan is Troy Polomalu?

[Dave Lane]

McClain, Bryant, Bulaga, Davis, or Okung would all be monumentally ****ing stupid picks.

Okung I could live with if the want him the rest no fucking way

[Brock]

What if Jaquan Morgan is Troy Polomalu?

Who?

[DeezNutz]

What if Jaquan Morgan is Troy Polomalu?

What if Clausen is Aikman?

[Nightfyre]

What if tebow is jesus?
Posted via Mobile Device

[Dave Lane]

Who?

Sorry DaJaun Morgan