What are the odds of KC drafting specific players?

[Rain Man]

Give me your odds, adding to 100 percent, of various players being drafted by the Chiefs in the first round.

I'll offer mine, without knowing much about the draft since I haven't bought my draft magazine yet.


The Chiefs' pick will be....


Jimmy Clauson - 29%
Eric Berry - 23%
Dan Williams - 21%
Brian Bulaga - 8%
Russell Okung - 6%
Gerald McCoy - 5%
Trent Williams - 3%
Ndamukong Suh - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
C.J. Spiller - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
Joe Haden - 1%

[Ralphy Boy]

Dan Williams 60%
Eric Berry 35%
Jimmy Clausen 5%

[MoreLemonPledge]

Dan Williams 33%
Eric Berry 33%
Brian Bulaga 30%
Anyone else 3%

[spanky 52]

Dan Williams 75%
Eric Berry 20%
Jimmy Claussen 5%

[CupidStunt]

Dan Williams 50%
Eric Berry 25%
Bryan Bulaga 15%
Russell Okung 5%
Jimmy Clausen 5%

[milkman]

Someone I don't want to see them pick.

99.9%

[patteeu]

Give me your odds, adding to 100 percent, of various players being drafted by the Chiefs in the first round.

I'll offer mine, without knowing much about the draft since I haven't bought my draft magazine yet.


The Chiefs' pick will be....


Jimmy Clauson - 29%
Eric Berry - 23%
Dan Williams - 21%
Brian Bulaga - 8%
Russell Okung - 6%
Gerald McCoy - 5%
Trent Williams - 3%
Ndamukong Suh - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
C.J. Spiller - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
Joe Haden - 1%

I know even less about the draft than you do because I've been reading some of the our resident draft "expert" posts, but does this mean that there's actually a 2% chance of Earl Thomas getting drafted or are there two Earl Thomases?

[patteeu]

My percentages:

Eric Berry 33%
Jimmy Clausen 33%
Dan Williams 15%
Rolando McClain 6%
Brian Baluga 6%
Trent Williams 6%
Russell Okung 1%

[Rain Man]

I know even less about the draft than you do because I've been reading some of 'Hamas' Jenkins' posts, but does this mean that there's actually a 2% chance of Earl Thomas getting drafted or are there two Earl Thomases?
oh. ummmm, earl is so good that they will only let him play half time for two teams, or it'll destroy the balance of the league.
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[-King-]

Eric Berry - 50%
Dan williams - 25%
Jimmy Dick Clausen - 23%
Other - 2%
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[threebag]

Rudy!!!Rudy!!!Rudy!!!

[Hammock Parties]

You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.

[patteeu]

You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.

Mine aren't arbitrary. Mine are based on extensive discussions with Chiefs coaches and player personnel guys and a phone call to a telepsychic who helped me understand what the 4 teams ahead of the Chiefs are planning to do. My numbers reflect the infighting that is still going on at Chiefs HQ and the likelihood that any given advocacy group will eventually prevail.

[patteeu]

You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.

In seriousness, this is just an exercise in quantifying a statement like "I think the Chiefs will draft X, but I could see them drafting Y or Z instead and I leave room for the small possibility that they'll do something really off the wall and end up taking A, B, or C. There's nothing less real about this than about any of the other draft predictions that are made here.

[Ming the Merciless]

Someone I don't want to see them pick.

99.9%

Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%

[Ming the Merciless]

Berry 30%
D williams 23%
Bulaga 17%
T williams 15%
Clausen 5%
Anyone else 10% (also I can add this onto any player to claim 'i knew it all along' and make myself look smarter after the draft)

edited my numbers a tad for the **** of it

[Nightfyre]

Trade Down - 30%
Clausen - 25%
Berry - 30%
D. Williams - 15%

[Ming the Merciless]

Trade Down - 30%
Clausen - 25%
Berry - 30%
D. Williams - 15%


I would love to think that a trade down is 30% with the #5 overall....But a trade of a top 5 pick is pretty rare from what I understand....

It would be sick to trade down a few spots and still be in the top 10...

[threebag]

Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%

ROFL ^^^

[Nightfyre]

I would love to think that a trade down is 30% with the #5 overall....But a trade of a top 5 pick is pretty rare from what I understand....

It would be sick to trade down a few spots and still be in the top 10...

I didnt specify that we would get good value out of a trade down.

[Ming the Merciless]

I didnt specify that we would get good value out of a trade down.

I didn't even mention value....Trading the #5 pick is pretty rare (has it only happened once in the history of the draft?)...

If you are trying to say there is a 30% chance we will trade down just to get more picks without regard the value of them...I would disagree. IF we make a trade we are going to get a good value in terms of picks. Otherwise there is no point in trading the pick.

[Gary]

Mine aren't arbitrary. Mine are based on extensive discussions with Chiefs coaches and player personnel guys and a phone call to a telepsychic who helped me understand what the 4 teams ahead of the Chiefs are planning to do. My numbers reflect the infighting that is still going on at Chiefs HQ and the likelihood that any given advocacy group will eventually prevail.

You could have just called 1-800-ask-gary

[Nightfyre]

I didn't even mention value....Trading the #5 pick is pretty rare (has it only happened once in the history of the draft?)...

If you are trying to say there is a 30% chance we will trade down just to get more picks without regard the value of them...I would disagree. IF we make a trade we are going to get a good value in terms of picks. Otherwise there is no point in trading the pick.

I could see how you would think that way if you had never listened to Pioli's approach to the draft. He doesn't look at the value chart. He looks at the players who will be available.

[RustShack]

Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%

:stupid:

[Mr. Laz]

Eric Berry - 30%
Jimmy Clauson - 25%
Trent Williams - 20%(can play both OT spots is huge)
Dan Williams - 12%
Russell Okung - 12%
Brian Bulaga - 1%

[threebag]

H5N1 just laughing at something funny but the NEG must mean the truth hurts. Go have a coors light.

[milkman]

100%

[Ebolapox]

H5N1 just laughing at something funny but the NEG must mean the truth hurts. Go have a coors light.

did you see the smiley? it was done in jest. and fuck coors light.

[Rain Man]

You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.

My process isn't as evidence-based as patteeu's, but nonetheless I'm basing them on a Monte Carlo simulation model that examines combinations of potential choices based on past behavior and quantified media reports.

[threebag]

did you see the smiley? it was done in jest. and fuck coors light.

I hear the FUCK COORS light. It was also said in jest. I was always told coors light will make your asshole hurt.

[MoreLemonPledge]

I hear the FUCK COORS light. It was also said in jest. I was always told coors light will make your asshole hurt.

Yeah, I drank a whole bunch one night and passed out next to this woman that I met at a bar. She had big shoulders and an adam's apple, but she was a great kisser. When I woke up, though, my asshole hurt. I blame it on the Coors.