OnTheWarpath15
06-25-2010, 11:30 AM
Royals hosting the I-70 Series this weekend, local columnist Bernie Miklasz breaks down Greinke and gives his takes on the Royals.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_d1b92ff4-8076-11df-b8ba-0017a4a78c22.html
* WHAT'S "WRONG" with ZACK GREINKE?
He'll start against the Cardinals Friday night and enters with a 2-8 record with a 3.94 ERA. Greinke won the AL Cy Young award last season by going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA for a hideous KC Royals team. Obviously there's been a drop in performance, but it isn't as if the dude has turned into Sidney Ponson. First of all, don't draw too much meaning from that 2-8 record. The Royals don't score many runs for Greinke; only 33 while he's been on the mound in his 15 starts. They've scored two runs or fewer in 9 of his 15 starts and have been shut out in 5 of the 15 starts. The run-scoring average of 3.09 for Greinke is the 4th-lowest in the AL. So of course he's going to be tagged with unfair "losses."
So why is the ERA up? There are a few things we can identify: (1) the contact rate against him is up by around 8 perccent from last season. (2) the HR rate is way up; 10.7 percent of the fly balls he's allowed have gone over the wall; last season that rate was 4.5 percent. He allowed 11 homers in 229 IP last season and already has been popped for 13 homers in 96 innings this year. (3) Zack's swing-and-miss rate has dropped 6 percent from last seson. (4) Accordingly, his strikeout rate is down to 7.8 per nine innings from a K rate of 9.5 % in '09.
And what is behind all of this? It seems that Greinke's fastball isn't as imposing as last season. According to FX data, it's averaging 92.8 mph this season, down from 93.7 mph from '09. And the slider isn't as sharp, either. According to FanGraphs.com, Greinke's fastball had a value of about 25.8 runs last season; this year it's 2.3 runs. The value of the slider has fallen from 20.1 runs to 5.6. So his two most important pitches have become more hittable. And Greinke has become more predictable in using his fastball; he's throwing it, first-pitch, to RH batters 65 percent of the time this season compared to 58 percent last year. One other clue about the reduced effectiveness of the fastball-slider combo. Though Greinke's walk rate is about the same as a year ago, he's throwing more pitches out of the strike zone, and batters are going after those pitches and making contact much more often. So even when Greinke is trying to get guys to chase his stuff isn't as nasty. They're reaching it.
* SCOUTING THE ROYALS:
30-43 record, 4th place AL Central, 10.5 games out ... the Royals have lost more games (2,128) than any team in baseball since winning the World Series in 1985 ... they're 18-20 since former Brewers manager Ned Yost took over ... GM Dayton Moore is under fire for puzzling free-agent signings of veteran, replacement-level stop-gap players such as Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Willie Bloomquist, Rick Ankiel, Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth, etc. The Royals should be going all-in with young players and prospects but instead are playing and paying mediocre veterans and blocking the path of guys such as Alex Gordon, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft. Gordon is hitting .333 / .457 / .577 with 10 homers at Class AAA Omaha. Why is he there? What's the point? Moore deserves credit for retooling the KC player-development system, which is showing signs of promise. But he's making the mistake of drafting good players and not taking the next step, which is to build around them.
Offensively, the Royals are 9th in the AL in runs at 4.45 per game. They lead the league with a .280 batting average, but that's misleading; they also lead the AL in singles, and we point that out because this is a team that has the lowest walk rate in the AL, and is 9th in slugging. So those singles tend to be harmless. It's a team that takes an aggressive approach and puts the ball in play more often than any other AL team; 47.1 percent of the KC swings end up in play; that's the highest percentage in the AL. And Royals' hitters have the league's lowest swing-and-miss rate.... Guillen is one of the AL's better DHs with 13 homers and 44 RBIs ... David DeJesus is a fine outfielder who gets on base (.394 OBP). 1B Billy Butler is a good hitter. But it isn't an intimidating offense.Basically the Royals try to ping you to death with singles.
The KC rotation ranks next to last in the AL with a 5.16 ERA and the OPS (.776) against the starters is the second-highest in the league. The bullpen is 7th in the AL with a 4.10 ERA and has allowed 33.6 percent of inherited runners to score. The Royals, like the Cardinals, are a poor base-running team; they're ranked 27th in base-running effectiveness by Baseball Prospectus and have lost 58 runners on the bases ... defensively the Royals are ranked 21st in efficiency by Baseball Prospectus.
Thoughts?
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_d1b92ff4-8076-11df-b8ba-0017a4a78c22.html
* WHAT'S "WRONG" with ZACK GREINKE?
He'll start against the Cardinals Friday night and enters with a 2-8 record with a 3.94 ERA. Greinke won the AL Cy Young award last season by going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA for a hideous KC Royals team. Obviously there's been a drop in performance, but it isn't as if the dude has turned into Sidney Ponson. First of all, don't draw too much meaning from that 2-8 record. The Royals don't score many runs for Greinke; only 33 while he's been on the mound in his 15 starts. They've scored two runs or fewer in 9 of his 15 starts and have been shut out in 5 of the 15 starts. The run-scoring average of 3.09 for Greinke is the 4th-lowest in the AL. So of course he's going to be tagged with unfair "losses."
So why is the ERA up? There are a few things we can identify: (1) the contact rate against him is up by around 8 perccent from last season. (2) the HR rate is way up; 10.7 percent of the fly balls he's allowed have gone over the wall; last season that rate was 4.5 percent. He allowed 11 homers in 229 IP last season and already has been popped for 13 homers in 96 innings this year. (3) Zack's swing-and-miss rate has dropped 6 percent from last seson. (4) Accordingly, his strikeout rate is down to 7.8 per nine innings from a K rate of 9.5 % in '09.
And what is behind all of this? It seems that Greinke's fastball isn't as imposing as last season. According to FX data, it's averaging 92.8 mph this season, down from 93.7 mph from '09. And the slider isn't as sharp, either. According to FanGraphs.com, Greinke's fastball had a value of about 25.8 runs last season; this year it's 2.3 runs. The value of the slider has fallen from 20.1 runs to 5.6. So his two most important pitches have become more hittable. And Greinke has become more predictable in using his fastball; he's throwing it, first-pitch, to RH batters 65 percent of the time this season compared to 58 percent last year. One other clue about the reduced effectiveness of the fastball-slider combo. Though Greinke's walk rate is about the same as a year ago, he's throwing more pitches out of the strike zone, and batters are going after those pitches and making contact much more often. So even when Greinke is trying to get guys to chase his stuff isn't as nasty. They're reaching it.
* SCOUTING THE ROYALS:
30-43 record, 4th place AL Central, 10.5 games out ... the Royals have lost more games (2,128) than any team in baseball since winning the World Series in 1985 ... they're 18-20 since former Brewers manager Ned Yost took over ... GM Dayton Moore is under fire for puzzling free-agent signings of veteran, replacement-level stop-gap players such as Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Willie Bloomquist, Rick Ankiel, Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth, etc. The Royals should be going all-in with young players and prospects but instead are playing and paying mediocre veterans and blocking the path of guys such as Alex Gordon, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft. Gordon is hitting .333 / .457 / .577 with 10 homers at Class AAA Omaha. Why is he there? What's the point? Moore deserves credit for retooling the KC player-development system, which is showing signs of promise. But he's making the mistake of drafting good players and not taking the next step, which is to build around them.
Offensively, the Royals are 9th in the AL in runs at 4.45 per game. They lead the league with a .280 batting average, but that's misleading; they also lead the AL in singles, and we point that out because this is a team that has the lowest walk rate in the AL, and is 9th in slugging. So those singles tend to be harmless. It's a team that takes an aggressive approach and puts the ball in play more often than any other AL team; 47.1 percent of the KC swings end up in play; that's the highest percentage in the AL. And Royals' hitters have the league's lowest swing-and-miss rate.... Guillen is one of the AL's better DHs with 13 homers and 44 RBIs ... David DeJesus is a fine outfielder who gets on base (.394 OBP). 1B Billy Butler is a good hitter. But it isn't an intimidating offense.Basically the Royals try to ping you to death with singles.
The KC rotation ranks next to last in the AL with a 5.16 ERA and the OPS (.776) against the starters is the second-highest in the league. The bullpen is 7th in the AL with a 4.10 ERA and has allowed 33.6 percent of inherited runners to score. The Royals, like the Cardinals, are a poor base-running team; they're ranked 27th in base-running effectiveness by Baseball Prospectus and have lost 58 runners on the bases ... defensively the Royals are ranked 21st in efficiency by Baseball Prospectus.
Thoughts?