WebGem
11-24-2010, 06:13 PM
http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/nfl/gameid,172/
Yes I know this system is heavily criticized, but at least it's better than 90% of the ESPN experts on their picks. FWIW I'm almost certain it doesn't take into effect injuries, etc. But it's at least something pointing at a Chiefs win.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat the Seattle Seahawks. Jamaal Charles is projected for 51 rushing yards and a 24% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where Seattle Seahawks wins, Matt Hasselbeck averages 1.25 TD passes vs 0.71 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.87 TDs to 1.29 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch averages 54 rushing yards and 0.37 rushing TDs when Seattle Seahawks wins and 35 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses. The Kansas City Chiefs has a 71% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 73% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is SEA +1 --- Over/Under line is 44
Yes I know this system is heavily criticized, but at least it's better than 90% of the ESPN experts on their picks. FWIW I'm almost certain it doesn't take into effect injuries, etc. But it's at least something pointing at a Chiefs win.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat the Seattle Seahawks. Jamaal Charles is projected for 51 rushing yards and a 24% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where Seattle Seahawks wins, Matt Hasselbeck averages 1.25 TD passes vs 0.71 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.87 TDs to 1.29 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch averages 54 rushing yards and 0.37 rushing TDs when Seattle Seahawks wins and 35 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses. The Kansas City Chiefs has a 71% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 73% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is SEA +1 --- Over/Under line is 44