Shogun
12-22-2010, 09:24 PM
http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/2777
I’ve certainly written about Charles within the broader Chiefs posts I have done, but I decided it was more than time to devote an entire post to him. Charles may not only be the best runner in the NFL, he may be the best runner in Kansas City history and he may even be the best runner in NFL history. At least by one measure… he is.
I brought up this fact in the St. Louis post-game article, but it bears repeating – especially since it is the single most impressive statistic any Chief has had in years – if not ever.
When Charles scampered for 80 yards in his last rushing play of the game versus the Rams, he more than secured the game for Kansas City, he moved into first place all time for running backs in modern NFL history based upon yards per carry.
I’m going to display that table again, but I’m going to show three rows with Charles name. One of them was his YPC before the game, one before the 80 yard run and one after it (end of game).
The table has three assumptions: 1) Since 1934, 2) Minimum 1,000 yards of rushing, 3) Running backs only (Michael Vick had higher YPC in 2006 as a QB).
http://i52.tinypic.com/jsm6c5.jpg
The big question as far as I’m concerned is whether Charles can maintain the 6.42 rate. If he does, he will move into rarified air – that being a higher YPC than the great Jim Brown. And, even if he doesn’t, as long as he stays above 6.128 (Barry Sanders, 1997), he will have the highest YPC of any running back since the NFL merged with the AFL 40 years ago.
Here is a list of the 20 running backs with the most yardage since 1969 (OJ Simpson’s first year) and their best season with respect to yards per carry. Jim Brown was 27 when he rushed for 6.40 ypc in 1963. Charles is 24. His birthday is December 27. Sorted by YPC
http://i54.tinypic.com/w15zqe.jpg
The interesting item to note here are the ages for each player when they had their best rushing season (based upon ypc). The majority of them (12) were 25 or younger. The remaining ages are 26 (3), 27 (0), 28 (0), 29 (2), 30 (1), 31 (2). It’s not unreasonable to say this is likely as good as it gets for Charles and, on a per-carry basis, it’s all downhill from here.
That, of course, brings up an obvious question. If a running back such as Charles is in his primest of primes at the age of 24.986, why isn’t Todd Haley running him more often? I’m pretty content with Jones carrying a good chunk of the load, but one of the great statistical oddities of all time is this fact…
…Jones has 212 rushing attempts, Charles 203.
Jones is averaging 3.91 ypc compared to Charles’ 6.42. Obviously (I think), Haley doesn’t want to wear down Charles. I can appreciate that, but I don’t know what evidence there is to suggest that would happen. On the other hand, it’s absolutely true that Charles (IMO) would not average 6.42 ypc if he had 300 rushes instead of 200. There is just no way. The defenses would be more focused on him.
But, just for hypothetical purposes, let’s suppose Charles had rushed 300 times and Jones the remaining 115. And, let’s say the averages remained the same. Instead of the two combining for 2,131, they would have combined for 2,317. That’s an additional 186 yards over 14 games. The difference is 13 more rushing yards per game. Is that an issue?
IMO, probably not. It’s doubtful that 13 yards is going to win or lose any games. It’s probably more true that it wouldn’t end up being 13 yards anyway – more like 10 or less. So, because of that and being a proud statistical nerd, I would rather see Charles break Brown’s record than worry about 10 yards per game – especially when Haley probably knows what he’s doing and (historically) Charles is more prone to fumble than Jones.
At his present rate, Charles will end up with 1,489 yards. That would rank #81 in NFL history and #5 as a Chief… but it would still be #1 in NFL history on a per-carry basis.
Here are the top rushers (1,200+) by season by all Chiefs running backs.
http://i52.tinypic.com/2ezqwrl.jpg
Clearly on a per carry basis, Charles is in a different league than any previous KC running back. Whether he could maintain it if he had to carry the rock more often is unknown.
COOL FACTOID: Over his last 18 games (perhaps equivalent to a future NFL season), Charles has 1,961 yards on 297 carries for a 6.60 YPC. There has never been a stretch comparable to that in NFL history based upon rushing efficiency.
Charles is third in total yards this season in the NFL - only a few yards behind. Here are the top five
http://i51.tinypic.com/25g6qo6.jpg
It’s hard to see how anyone can look at this list and not recognize Charles as overwhelmingly superior to any of the others. I don’t think he is getting the respect he deserves, although word is getting out.
A reader sent me a link to an ESPN Insider story about Charles from a couple days ago. The title is Charles is MVP-worthy.
I’ve certainly written about Charles within the broader Chiefs posts I have done, but I decided it was more than time to devote an entire post to him. Charles may not only be the best runner in the NFL, he may be the best runner in Kansas City history and he may even be the best runner in NFL history. At least by one measure… he is.
I brought up this fact in the St. Louis post-game article, but it bears repeating – especially since it is the single most impressive statistic any Chief has had in years – if not ever.
When Charles scampered for 80 yards in his last rushing play of the game versus the Rams, he more than secured the game for Kansas City, he moved into first place all time for running backs in modern NFL history based upon yards per carry.
I’m going to display that table again, but I’m going to show three rows with Charles name. One of them was his YPC before the game, one before the 80 yard run and one after it (end of game).
The table has three assumptions: 1) Since 1934, 2) Minimum 1,000 yards of rushing, 3) Running backs only (Michael Vick had higher YPC in 2006 as a QB).
http://i52.tinypic.com/jsm6c5.jpg
The big question as far as I’m concerned is whether Charles can maintain the 6.42 rate. If he does, he will move into rarified air – that being a higher YPC than the great Jim Brown. And, even if he doesn’t, as long as he stays above 6.128 (Barry Sanders, 1997), he will have the highest YPC of any running back since the NFL merged with the AFL 40 years ago.
Here is a list of the 20 running backs with the most yardage since 1969 (OJ Simpson’s first year) and their best season with respect to yards per carry. Jim Brown was 27 when he rushed for 6.40 ypc in 1963. Charles is 24. His birthday is December 27. Sorted by YPC
http://i54.tinypic.com/w15zqe.jpg
The interesting item to note here are the ages for each player when they had their best rushing season (based upon ypc). The majority of them (12) were 25 or younger. The remaining ages are 26 (3), 27 (0), 28 (0), 29 (2), 30 (1), 31 (2). It’s not unreasonable to say this is likely as good as it gets for Charles and, on a per-carry basis, it’s all downhill from here.
That, of course, brings up an obvious question. If a running back such as Charles is in his primest of primes at the age of 24.986, why isn’t Todd Haley running him more often? I’m pretty content with Jones carrying a good chunk of the load, but one of the great statistical oddities of all time is this fact…
…Jones has 212 rushing attempts, Charles 203.
Jones is averaging 3.91 ypc compared to Charles’ 6.42. Obviously (I think), Haley doesn’t want to wear down Charles. I can appreciate that, but I don’t know what evidence there is to suggest that would happen. On the other hand, it’s absolutely true that Charles (IMO) would not average 6.42 ypc if he had 300 rushes instead of 200. There is just no way. The defenses would be more focused on him.
But, just for hypothetical purposes, let’s suppose Charles had rushed 300 times and Jones the remaining 115. And, let’s say the averages remained the same. Instead of the two combining for 2,131, they would have combined for 2,317. That’s an additional 186 yards over 14 games. The difference is 13 more rushing yards per game. Is that an issue?
IMO, probably not. It’s doubtful that 13 yards is going to win or lose any games. It’s probably more true that it wouldn’t end up being 13 yards anyway – more like 10 or less. So, because of that and being a proud statistical nerd, I would rather see Charles break Brown’s record than worry about 10 yards per game – especially when Haley probably knows what he’s doing and (historically) Charles is more prone to fumble than Jones.
At his present rate, Charles will end up with 1,489 yards. That would rank #81 in NFL history and #5 as a Chief… but it would still be #1 in NFL history on a per-carry basis.
Here are the top rushers (1,200+) by season by all Chiefs running backs.
http://i52.tinypic.com/2ezqwrl.jpg
Clearly on a per carry basis, Charles is in a different league than any previous KC running back. Whether he could maintain it if he had to carry the rock more often is unknown.
COOL FACTOID: Over his last 18 games (perhaps equivalent to a future NFL season), Charles has 1,961 yards on 297 carries for a 6.60 YPC. There has never been a stretch comparable to that in NFL history based upon rushing efficiency.
Charles is third in total yards this season in the NFL - only a few yards behind. Here are the top five
http://i51.tinypic.com/25g6qo6.jpg
It’s hard to see how anyone can look at this list and not recognize Charles as overwhelmingly superior to any of the others. I don’t think he is getting the respect he deserves, although word is getting out.
A reader sent me a link to an ESPN Insider story about Charles from a couple days ago. The title is Charles is MVP-worthy.