MahiMike
04-07-2011, 06:48 AM
Something different than all the inaccurate mock drafts...
http://www.reclinerqb.com/2011/04/2011-nfl-draft-all-bust-list.html
Recliner QB
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
2011 NFL Draft "All-Bust" List
While most NFL writers are working on their "mock drafts" right now (which 99% of them will be blown up before the 5th pick) I am going a different route. I am going to do my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Bust" List, which is definitely subject to change after the draft depending on where people go though I believe some will be busts no matter where they are drafted. Since I am not a scout or established writer with "sources" and access to game film, this list is based largely on my perception, and the games I did see these players play in (since I watch a lot of football I have seen these guys play quite a bit). So here we go, and by the way this list is not in any particular order, even though I do think that Jake Locker will be a bust no matter where he goes (even if he does play in Shanahan's bootleg heavy offense).
1) Jake Locker-QB-Washington - He had a very overrated college career and I believe all the pre-draft hype on him has been centered around the fact that he was "supposedly a #1 overall pick prospect" (cough-cough McShay) coming into his Senior year. But honestly what NFL team would draft a guy that I consider a 3rd-tier version of Tim Tebow (Who I did not think was worthy of a 1st round pick). He was unable to make his team a winner (which I thought everybody considered a "Must Have" trait of an elite QB), his team won an unspectacular 32% of their games over his 4 year career there, I figure an "elite" QB should muster a few more than 16 wins over his college career. Also his senior year he only competed:
-55.4% of his passes for 6.82 YPA(Yards Per Attempt) compared to
-64.7% & 9.41 YPA for Ryan Mallett,
-63.4% & 6.71 YPA for Blaine Gabbert and
-66.1% & 10.19 for Cam Newton (man this stat makes Newton look better than I think he is, I will have to blow this out of the water with further analysis in another article)
Another issue I have with Locker is his durability, he has taken a beating over his career thus far and suffered some injuries due to his style of play, and the guys hit a lot harder at the next level..... The few times I saw him play I was always expecting big things because of what I heard from ESPN (cough-cough McShay) and instead I saw a guy that seemed slow to pick up on what the defense was doing, to quick to tuck and run (i.e. read #1 then run), not enough zip on his intermediate to deep routes, and just plain bad accuracy. All that plus at his recent pro day, where a guy is supposed to "shine" he played it safe with mostly short and intermediate distance throws (click here to read more detail on it from my Twitter buddy @evansilva at ProFootballTalk.com).
Overall I really do not see Jake Locker being successful in the NFL under any system, especially if Steve Sarkisian (a noted QB guru) could not make much of him. I understand the guy is a great leader and fairly smart, so maybe he will provide good locker room presence and be a great "coach" on the sidelines (i.e. the next Jason Garrett), but I just do not see him as a starting caliber QB in the NFL...ever.
2) Marcell Dareus-DL-Alabama - I know I am going to get reamed for this one, but to me Dareus is just not a "star". I watched most of his college games and while he racked up some good numbers, I did not see him making a bunch of "impact plays" (yes I know he had some, i.e. National Championship game against always over-rated Texas). Honestly this past year he reminded me of DeMarcus Ware, Ware led the league in sacks, but none of them ever seemed to be game changers, they all seemed to be in garbage time or at least "non-critical" moments in the game. I believe that Marcell will have a solid, but unspectacular, NFL career, he will probably be in the league for 10-15 years and be a contributor, just never "the guy". In fact he could be one of the better 3-4 ends (which is where I think he will eventually end up) in the league, which is like saying that you are the best long snapper, important but nobody notices.
Whenever I say that he didn't make "impact plays" I am always told that it was because "he played end in a 3-4, and in the NFL he will play 3-4 tackle". Hmmmm....Let me see, Alabama runs an NFL style 3-4, and Nick Saban is a great defensive coach, don't you think that if Dareus was an impact player he would have had him at the position where he would make the most impact (tackle) and not at DE where he just takes on blockers to free up linebackers and plays the run? Guys, this isn't like a college 4-3 DE being converted to 3-4 OLB. The system will probably be nearly identical for him from college to the pros, and if he wasn't able to play the "impact" position in college, against inferior opponents, what makes you think he will be that guy in the NFL against far superior opponents?
All this leads me to believe that DareusSaban's coaching and solid 3-4 ends are hard to find. He will never make the impact that a Top 5 pick should (and yes I know he will be a Top 5 pick, probably 1 or 2) and never be worth the huge money he will be paid and that is why I think he will be a bust.
3) Blaine Gabbert-QB-Missouri - The guy wasn't that productive in college running a dink-and-dunk spread offense, does not see the field that well (never had to go further than his 1st or 2nd read), and before his senior season I had read where he was a late round QB at best, and I saw NOTHING in his senior season that would catapult him all the way to the #1 spot! In fact, I think people just became enamored with his size and arm strength and/or they needed something to to talk/write about, like a kid who gets a crappy toy for his Birthday but because its new its the best one....
4) Martez Wilson-LB-Illinois -In watching him play....he just never did it for me. Wilson, with his physical gifts and in such a weak conference (Big Ten) should have been a superstar right off the bat, and he barely registered on the Big Ten Richter Scale (and in that conference it is hard not to register). The guy has great athleticism and at the very least should be an exceptional pass coverage linebacker, he has the physical tools to play any LB position and could become an above average rush LB in a 3-4 defense....With all that said I think he will hold himself back more than anything else, while I do not think he is a bad guy, he gets himself in bad situations and that could derail his NFL career along with the rumors I have read about him taking plays off.....Two very bad traits that in combination could end his career before it starts.
5) Jonathan Baldwin-WR-Pitt - Where to start with this guy....Seems to have it all, height, size, top end speed, catches everything, great body control, etc. So with all the skills necessary to be an elite NFL WR, why do I have him on my "All-Bust" List? Because his attitude and mouth remind me of Antonio Bryant. This assessment comes from him doing everything from criticizing his coaching staff and QB after he had a sub par year, arrested for supposedly groping a girl on a bus, and just has a reputation as a diva. All of this leads me to think that he will never fully utilize all the God-given talent that he has been blessed with. Due to his size and athleticism he is certain to get drafted in the 2nd round at the latest, but without a good support system look for him to talk/act his way out of the league.
6) Da'Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson - Bowers is not on this list due to his knee injury (though that does worry me a tiny bit), and he is not on this list due to his less than stellar Pro Day. Bowers is on this list because he is one of those "1 year wonders" that worry me so much, and that is why his lack of production over the first 2 years of his college career throws huge red flags. I mean the guy played the same position in the same system for 3 years totaling 1, 3, & 16 sacks respectively. Why and how did he break-out like that all of a sudden? There are a few reasons that come to mind, either he was lazy and unmotivated for the first two years, he just got lucky his final year (I did not get to watch many Clemson games I must admit...of course when I did Bowers did not stand out initially), or he could not live up to the "expectations". Now hear me out on this last one, my thinking goes, he was a unanimous top prospect coming out of high school, told he was the best, unblockable, etc. and he believed it and severely underachieved his first two years in college and once he start thinking "Damn, I might not get paid" he turned it on.....
7) Justin Houston-LB-Georgia - I watch a lot of SEC games and I watched a lot of Georgia games this year and Just Houston just never stood out to me. In fact I was amazed when I started seeing his name pop as a possible 1st round draft choice. Never seemed to have the skills to play OLB, seemed a step to slow doing anything besides coming straight off the edge, and I never saw anything that even remotely translated to dropping back in coverage.
8) Casey Matthews-LB-Oregon - Besides the National Championship game I never noticed him. Really I think he is getting a high grade based upon his lineage, and that does not fly with me. He seems to small to be an every down backer and is best suited as a nickle linebacker in the mold of Bobby Carpenter (who was excellent in coverage).
While you are here make sure you check out some other my other popular articles like:
-Best WR in the 2011 Draft
-Why Ryan Mallett is the #1 QB in the Draft
-Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans
-The "X" Factor in the 2011 Draft: D.J. Williams
-My two articles on how they can improve the NFL here and here
-
Posted by Recliner QB at 6:36 PM
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Labels: 2011 NFL Draft, Blaine Gabbert, Casey Matthews, Da'Quan Bowers, Jake Locker, Jonathan Baldwin, Justin Houston, Marcell Dareus, Martez Wilson
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http://www.reclinerqb.com/2011/04/2011-nfl-draft-all-bust-list.html
Recliner QB
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
2011 NFL Draft "All-Bust" List
While most NFL writers are working on their "mock drafts" right now (which 99% of them will be blown up before the 5th pick) I am going a different route. I am going to do my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Bust" List, which is definitely subject to change after the draft depending on where people go though I believe some will be busts no matter where they are drafted. Since I am not a scout or established writer with "sources" and access to game film, this list is based largely on my perception, and the games I did see these players play in (since I watch a lot of football I have seen these guys play quite a bit). So here we go, and by the way this list is not in any particular order, even though I do think that Jake Locker will be a bust no matter where he goes (even if he does play in Shanahan's bootleg heavy offense).
1) Jake Locker-QB-Washington - He had a very overrated college career and I believe all the pre-draft hype on him has been centered around the fact that he was "supposedly a #1 overall pick prospect" (cough-cough McShay) coming into his Senior year. But honestly what NFL team would draft a guy that I consider a 3rd-tier version of Tim Tebow (Who I did not think was worthy of a 1st round pick). He was unable to make his team a winner (which I thought everybody considered a "Must Have" trait of an elite QB), his team won an unspectacular 32% of their games over his 4 year career there, I figure an "elite" QB should muster a few more than 16 wins over his college career. Also his senior year he only competed:
-55.4% of his passes for 6.82 YPA(Yards Per Attempt) compared to
-64.7% & 9.41 YPA for Ryan Mallett,
-63.4% & 6.71 YPA for Blaine Gabbert and
-66.1% & 10.19 for Cam Newton (man this stat makes Newton look better than I think he is, I will have to blow this out of the water with further analysis in another article)
Another issue I have with Locker is his durability, he has taken a beating over his career thus far and suffered some injuries due to his style of play, and the guys hit a lot harder at the next level..... The few times I saw him play I was always expecting big things because of what I heard from ESPN (cough-cough McShay) and instead I saw a guy that seemed slow to pick up on what the defense was doing, to quick to tuck and run (i.e. read #1 then run), not enough zip on his intermediate to deep routes, and just plain bad accuracy. All that plus at his recent pro day, where a guy is supposed to "shine" he played it safe with mostly short and intermediate distance throws (click here to read more detail on it from my Twitter buddy @evansilva at ProFootballTalk.com).
Overall I really do not see Jake Locker being successful in the NFL under any system, especially if Steve Sarkisian (a noted QB guru) could not make much of him. I understand the guy is a great leader and fairly smart, so maybe he will provide good locker room presence and be a great "coach" on the sidelines (i.e. the next Jason Garrett), but I just do not see him as a starting caliber QB in the NFL...ever.
2) Marcell Dareus-DL-Alabama - I know I am going to get reamed for this one, but to me Dareus is just not a "star". I watched most of his college games and while he racked up some good numbers, I did not see him making a bunch of "impact plays" (yes I know he had some, i.e. National Championship game against always over-rated Texas). Honestly this past year he reminded me of DeMarcus Ware, Ware led the league in sacks, but none of them ever seemed to be game changers, they all seemed to be in garbage time or at least "non-critical" moments in the game. I believe that Marcell will have a solid, but unspectacular, NFL career, he will probably be in the league for 10-15 years and be a contributor, just never "the guy". In fact he could be one of the better 3-4 ends (which is where I think he will eventually end up) in the league, which is like saying that you are the best long snapper, important but nobody notices.
Whenever I say that he didn't make "impact plays" I am always told that it was because "he played end in a 3-4, and in the NFL he will play 3-4 tackle". Hmmmm....Let me see, Alabama runs an NFL style 3-4, and Nick Saban is a great defensive coach, don't you think that if Dareus was an impact player he would have had him at the position where he would make the most impact (tackle) and not at DE where he just takes on blockers to free up linebackers and plays the run? Guys, this isn't like a college 4-3 DE being converted to 3-4 OLB. The system will probably be nearly identical for him from college to the pros, and if he wasn't able to play the "impact" position in college, against inferior opponents, what makes you think he will be that guy in the NFL against far superior opponents?
All this leads me to believe that DareusSaban's coaching and solid 3-4 ends are hard to find. He will never make the impact that a Top 5 pick should (and yes I know he will be a Top 5 pick, probably 1 or 2) and never be worth the huge money he will be paid and that is why I think he will be a bust.
3) Blaine Gabbert-QB-Missouri - The guy wasn't that productive in college running a dink-and-dunk spread offense, does not see the field that well (never had to go further than his 1st or 2nd read), and before his senior season I had read where he was a late round QB at best, and I saw NOTHING in his senior season that would catapult him all the way to the #1 spot! In fact, I think people just became enamored with his size and arm strength and/or they needed something to to talk/write about, like a kid who gets a crappy toy for his Birthday but because its new its the best one....
4) Martez Wilson-LB-Illinois -In watching him play....he just never did it for me. Wilson, with his physical gifts and in such a weak conference (Big Ten) should have been a superstar right off the bat, and he barely registered on the Big Ten Richter Scale (and in that conference it is hard not to register). The guy has great athleticism and at the very least should be an exceptional pass coverage linebacker, he has the physical tools to play any LB position and could become an above average rush LB in a 3-4 defense....With all that said I think he will hold himself back more than anything else, while I do not think he is a bad guy, he gets himself in bad situations and that could derail his NFL career along with the rumors I have read about him taking plays off.....Two very bad traits that in combination could end his career before it starts.
5) Jonathan Baldwin-WR-Pitt - Where to start with this guy....Seems to have it all, height, size, top end speed, catches everything, great body control, etc. So with all the skills necessary to be an elite NFL WR, why do I have him on my "All-Bust" List? Because his attitude and mouth remind me of Antonio Bryant. This assessment comes from him doing everything from criticizing his coaching staff and QB after he had a sub par year, arrested for supposedly groping a girl on a bus, and just has a reputation as a diva. All of this leads me to think that he will never fully utilize all the God-given talent that he has been blessed with. Due to his size and athleticism he is certain to get drafted in the 2nd round at the latest, but without a good support system look for him to talk/act his way out of the league.
6) Da'Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson - Bowers is not on this list due to his knee injury (though that does worry me a tiny bit), and he is not on this list due to his less than stellar Pro Day. Bowers is on this list because he is one of those "1 year wonders" that worry me so much, and that is why his lack of production over the first 2 years of his college career throws huge red flags. I mean the guy played the same position in the same system for 3 years totaling 1, 3, & 16 sacks respectively. Why and how did he break-out like that all of a sudden? There are a few reasons that come to mind, either he was lazy and unmotivated for the first two years, he just got lucky his final year (I did not get to watch many Clemson games I must admit...of course when I did Bowers did not stand out initially), or he could not live up to the "expectations". Now hear me out on this last one, my thinking goes, he was a unanimous top prospect coming out of high school, told he was the best, unblockable, etc. and he believed it and severely underachieved his first two years in college and once he start thinking "Damn, I might not get paid" he turned it on.....
7) Justin Houston-LB-Georgia - I watch a lot of SEC games and I watched a lot of Georgia games this year and Just Houston just never stood out to me. In fact I was amazed when I started seeing his name pop as a possible 1st round draft choice. Never seemed to have the skills to play OLB, seemed a step to slow doing anything besides coming straight off the edge, and I never saw anything that even remotely translated to dropping back in coverage.
8) Casey Matthews-LB-Oregon - Besides the National Championship game I never noticed him. Really I think he is getting a high grade based upon his lineage, and that does not fly with me. He seems to small to be an every down backer and is best suited as a nickle linebacker in the mold of Bobby Carpenter (who was excellent in coverage).
While you are here make sure you check out some other my other popular articles like:
-Best WR in the 2011 Draft
-Why Ryan Mallett is the #1 QB in the Draft
-Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans
-The "X" Factor in the 2011 Draft: D.J. Williams
-My two articles on how they can improve the NFL here and here
-
Posted by Recliner QB at 6:36 PM
Email This BlogThis! Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Share to Google Buzz
Labels: 2011 NFL Draft, Blaine Gabbert, Casey Matthews, Da'Quan Bowers, Jake Locker, Jonathan Baldwin, Justin Houston, Marcell Dareus, Martez Wilson
0 comments:
Post a Comment
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Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)
Follow @reclinerQB on Twitter
Subscribe Now: standard
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View my complete profile
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