Hammock Parties
08-24-2011, 04:29 PM
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/08/24/pff-preview-2011-kansas-city-chiefs/
There was a lot more talk about Kansas City last year than most people anticipated. In a division that had been dominated by the Chargers, the Chiefs managed to push past them and win the AFC West for the first time since 2003.
.
Now people are wondering if they can do it again.
.
Kansas City had an early exit in the playoffs thanks to Baltimore, and, other then bringing three of those Ravens aboard (Le’Ron McClain, Jared Gaither and Kelly Gregg), they’ve been relatively quiet this offseason. Chiefs fans are hoping not just for another playoff appearance, but for a deeper run, while Raiders and Chargers fans are ready for this season to be their turn. Here are some reasons why either side could get their wish.
.
.
Five Reasons to be Confident
.
1) Potential Offensive MVP
Everyone is now familiar with the stellar player named Jamaal Charles, who earlier this offseason I was ready to deem the best running back in the NFL. Half the time he touches the ball he does something impressive with it. While I could go on and on about how great of a runner he is, what you might not know are his strengths elsewhere. On the 56 plays where he remained in for pass protection, he allowed pressure only once. His average of 9.7 yards after the catch was good for fifth best among the league’s running backs. As much as the Kansas City staff would like to limit his carries and ensure he will be an asset long term, he is capable of being an every down back. The more he touches the ball, the better the Chiefs chances are.
.
2) Potential Defensive MVP
Only once in NFL history has the offensive and defensive player of the year come from the same team; a pair of Ravens in 2003 with Jamal Lewis and Ray Lewis. The second could come this year with the Chiefs who have Tamba Hali as the defensive component opposite Charles. He is slowly getting more recognition and for good reason, as he was the only player to have more than 100 combined pressures on the season. On 17% of pass plays against the Chiefs, the quarterback had to change what he was doing or end up getting sacked because of this man. Just having these two players should be enough reason for optimism.
.
3) Preventing the pass
When opposing quarterbacks do get the ball off, they’ll also have some tough defenders in coverage to get it past. At cornerback, Brandon Flowers had an amazing start to the season, allowing just 0.6 yards per play in coverage over the first seven weeks. He didn’t keep up that amazing play, but was still effective in the season’s remaining games. Opposite him is Brandon Carr who also finished with a Top 15 cover grade among corners in 2010 and had an amazing game Week 13 against Denver where he defensed six of the eight passes thrown his way and saw the other two fall incomplete. Both Flowers and Carr featured prominently in this look that figured in coverage snaps for cornerbacks. At free safety Kendrick Lewis also had a positive coverage rating, and rounding out the secondary is second year man Eric Berry, who excelled as a run stopper. This is a complete defense and those who aren’t household names yet are soon to be.
.
4) Young Receivers
After some mediocre years as the Chiefs’ top wide receiver, Dwayne Bowe saw his game mature vastly in his fourth year. His 380 yards after the catch was good for 12th in the league, which is especially impressive considering less than 14% of his pass routes came lined up as a slot receiver where many of the catch-and-run players reside. When Bowe and Charles are covered, Kansas City can turn to Tony Moeaki who is primed for an even better sophomore season. He caught 70% of passes thrown his way, and gained 12 yards per catch, both numbers are above average for a starting tight end. Having options in both the run and pass game are critical to success and the Chiefs are on their way in both areas.
.
5) Yet Another Star
While the players I’ve already mentioned might get more highlights, just as key is their inside linebacker Derrick Johnson. Since the Chiefs switched to the 3-4 defense, he has been a much better run stopper and last season he earned the third-best run D rating in the league for inside and middle linebackers at +18.8. If I needed a linebacker in coverage, there is no one I’d rather have than Johnson. His 11 passes defensed were by far the most in the league for linebackers, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown since the middle of 2009. You can’t deny the Chiefs have talent on both sides of the ball.
.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
.
Five Reasons to be Concerned
.
1) More Difficult Schedule
In the regular season of 2010, the Chiefs only had three games against teams that ended up with winning records. Kansas City split the series with the Chargers, and lost to Indianapolis. They basically made the playoffs by beating weaker opponents on a pretty consistent basis. This year, the Chiefs have those teams again early in the season, but also need to take on the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers in five straight weeks during the second half. That is a terrible stretch for any team to go through, and is reason enough to think the Chiefs could drop a few more games this year than last.
.
2) Pass Protection
When the Chiefs assembled their offensive line, it looks like they planned on being the best run blocking team in the league and didn’t worry so much about their pass protection. Of the five starters in 2010, only Brian Waters had a positive pass block rating, and he was cut. This is a problem as Matt Cassel was near the bottom of the league in hitting his targets when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 57.3%. There is talent on the roster to throw to, but the receivers can’t make the catches if the quarterback is constantly throwing with people in his face and inaccurate when pressured.
.
3) Losses on the Defensive Line
Losing Shaun Smith to the Titans will hurt the Chiefs more than some might realize. His +13.5 rating in stopping the run was good for third best in the league for 3-4 defensive ends. While Ron Edwards wasn’t quite as good, he was still an above average run stopper and he will also be missed as he went to Carolina (and has since been injured). Kansas City made a quick fix in signing Kelly Gregg, but at age 34, his snaps will surely be limited, and he can’t replace both of last season’s pieces. What was a big advantage for the Chiefs last year could now be a slight one at best.
.
4) Receiver Depth
While I’ve mentioned Charles, Bowe and Moeaki, the names after that aren’t anyone opponents will fear. The current No. 2 wideout is Jerheme Urban who last played as a slot receiver for Arizona in 2009 where he accumulated a -6.1 receiving rating. Behind him is Steve Breaston who could pass Urban on the depth chart, but Breaston has only really shown he can play well when he’s the third-best wide receiver on the field. The Chiefs tried to address this with their first round pick Jonathan Baldwin, but he’s been missing the practice that every rookie desperately needs now, and doesn’t look like he can make an impact anytime soon.
.
5) The back not named Charles.
It gets to the point where you feel bad throwing Thomas Jones under the bus whenever the Chiefs and problems are mentioned, but you simply can’t give a 32-year-old running back 250 carries when he’s mangaing only 2.1 yards after contact and forcing just 11 missed tackles. Luckily, as mentioned in their last First Impressions article, it looks like Le’Ron McClain and Dexter McCluster can lighten his load some. With significantly fewer carries, Jones can hopefully be more productive, but if he looks anything like last year, he’ll hurt this offense.
.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
.
The Chiefs could very well be one of those odd teams to play better in 2011 as compared to 2010 but end with a worse record. They have so much young talent throughout the roster, but going from an incredibly easy schedule to an incredibly difficult one is not a transition anyone would volunteer for. Kansas City looks ready to take the step to the next level, it’s just a matter of if they can do it this year.
There was a lot more talk about Kansas City last year than most people anticipated. In a division that had been dominated by the Chargers, the Chiefs managed to push past them and win the AFC West for the first time since 2003.
.
Now people are wondering if they can do it again.
.
Kansas City had an early exit in the playoffs thanks to Baltimore, and, other then bringing three of those Ravens aboard (Le’Ron McClain, Jared Gaither and Kelly Gregg), they’ve been relatively quiet this offseason. Chiefs fans are hoping not just for another playoff appearance, but for a deeper run, while Raiders and Chargers fans are ready for this season to be their turn. Here are some reasons why either side could get their wish.
.
.
Five Reasons to be Confident
.
1) Potential Offensive MVP
Everyone is now familiar with the stellar player named Jamaal Charles, who earlier this offseason I was ready to deem the best running back in the NFL. Half the time he touches the ball he does something impressive with it. While I could go on and on about how great of a runner he is, what you might not know are his strengths elsewhere. On the 56 plays where he remained in for pass protection, he allowed pressure only once. His average of 9.7 yards after the catch was good for fifth best among the league’s running backs. As much as the Kansas City staff would like to limit his carries and ensure he will be an asset long term, he is capable of being an every down back. The more he touches the ball, the better the Chiefs chances are.
.
2) Potential Defensive MVP
Only once in NFL history has the offensive and defensive player of the year come from the same team; a pair of Ravens in 2003 with Jamal Lewis and Ray Lewis. The second could come this year with the Chiefs who have Tamba Hali as the defensive component opposite Charles. He is slowly getting more recognition and for good reason, as he was the only player to have more than 100 combined pressures on the season. On 17% of pass plays against the Chiefs, the quarterback had to change what he was doing or end up getting sacked because of this man. Just having these two players should be enough reason for optimism.
.
3) Preventing the pass
When opposing quarterbacks do get the ball off, they’ll also have some tough defenders in coverage to get it past. At cornerback, Brandon Flowers had an amazing start to the season, allowing just 0.6 yards per play in coverage over the first seven weeks. He didn’t keep up that amazing play, but was still effective in the season’s remaining games. Opposite him is Brandon Carr who also finished with a Top 15 cover grade among corners in 2010 and had an amazing game Week 13 against Denver where he defensed six of the eight passes thrown his way and saw the other two fall incomplete. Both Flowers and Carr featured prominently in this look that figured in coverage snaps for cornerbacks. At free safety Kendrick Lewis also had a positive coverage rating, and rounding out the secondary is second year man Eric Berry, who excelled as a run stopper. This is a complete defense and those who aren’t household names yet are soon to be.
.
4) Young Receivers
After some mediocre years as the Chiefs’ top wide receiver, Dwayne Bowe saw his game mature vastly in his fourth year. His 380 yards after the catch was good for 12th in the league, which is especially impressive considering less than 14% of his pass routes came lined up as a slot receiver where many of the catch-and-run players reside. When Bowe and Charles are covered, Kansas City can turn to Tony Moeaki who is primed for an even better sophomore season. He caught 70% of passes thrown his way, and gained 12 yards per catch, both numbers are above average for a starting tight end. Having options in both the run and pass game are critical to success and the Chiefs are on their way in both areas.
.
5) Yet Another Star
While the players I’ve already mentioned might get more highlights, just as key is their inside linebacker Derrick Johnson. Since the Chiefs switched to the 3-4 defense, he has been a much better run stopper and last season he earned the third-best run D rating in the league for inside and middle linebackers at +18.8. If I needed a linebacker in coverage, there is no one I’d rather have than Johnson. His 11 passes defensed were by far the most in the league for linebackers, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown since the middle of 2009. You can’t deny the Chiefs have talent on both sides of the ball.
.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
.
Five Reasons to be Concerned
.
1) More Difficult Schedule
In the regular season of 2010, the Chiefs only had three games against teams that ended up with winning records. Kansas City split the series with the Chargers, and lost to Indianapolis. They basically made the playoffs by beating weaker opponents on a pretty consistent basis. This year, the Chiefs have those teams again early in the season, but also need to take on the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers in five straight weeks during the second half. That is a terrible stretch for any team to go through, and is reason enough to think the Chiefs could drop a few more games this year than last.
.
2) Pass Protection
When the Chiefs assembled their offensive line, it looks like they planned on being the best run blocking team in the league and didn’t worry so much about their pass protection. Of the five starters in 2010, only Brian Waters had a positive pass block rating, and he was cut. This is a problem as Matt Cassel was near the bottom of the league in hitting his targets when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 57.3%. There is talent on the roster to throw to, but the receivers can’t make the catches if the quarterback is constantly throwing with people in his face and inaccurate when pressured.
.
3) Losses on the Defensive Line
Losing Shaun Smith to the Titans will hurt the Chiefs more than some might realize. His +13.5 rating in stopping the run was good for third best in the league for 3-4 defensive ends. While Ron Edwards wasn’t quite as good, he was still an above average run stopper and he will also be missed as he went to Carolina (and has since been injured). Kansas City made a quick fix in signing Kelly Gregg, but at age 34, his snaps will surely be limited, and he can’t replace both of last season’s pieces. What was a big advantage for the Chiefs last year could now be a slight one at best.
.
4) Receiver Depth
While I’ve mentioned Charles, Bowe and Moeaki, the names after that aren’t anyone opponents will fear. The current No. 2 wideout is Jerheme Urban who last played as a slot receiver for Arizona in 2009 where he accumulated a -6.1 receiving rating. Behind him is Steve Breaston who could pass Urban on the depth chart, but Breaston has only really shown he can play well when he’s the third-best wide receiver on the field. The Chiefs tried to address this with their first round pick Jonathan Baldwin, but he’s been missing the practice that every rookie desperately needs now, and doesn’t look like he can make an impact anytime soon.
.
5) The back not named Charles.
It gets to the point where you feel bad throwing Thomas Jones under the bus whenever the Chiefs and problems are mentioned, but you simply can’t give a 32-year-old running back 250 carries when he’s mangaing only 2.1 yards after contact and forcing just 11 missed tackles. Luckily, as mentioned in their last First Impressions article, it looks like Le’Ron McClain and Dexter McCluster can lighten his load some. With significantly fewer carries, Jones can hopefully be more productive, but if he looks anything like last year, he’ll hurt this offense.
.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
.
The Chiefs could very well be one of those odd teams to play better in 2011 as compared to 2010 but end with a worse record. They have so much young talent throughout the roster, but going from an incredibly easy schedule to an incredibly difficult one is not a transition anyone would volunteer for. Kansas City looks ready to take the step to the next level, it’s just a matter of if they can do it this year.