2012 NFL Draft Class Weak In Pass Rushers, Could Shift Chiefs Away From

[bevischief]

http://kansascity.sbnation.com/kansas-city-chiefs/2012/4/19/2959687/2012-nfl-draft-class-weak-pass-rushers-chiefs-pioli-decastro-kuechly/in/2595449

2012 NFL Draft Class Weak In Pass Rushers, Could Shift Chiefs Away From David DeCastro, Luke Kuechly

Apr 19 7:26a by Matt Conner

Read More: Kansas City Chiefs

For those of you hip to Football Outsider’s various equations that measure NFL statistics left-of-center, you know that the writers there often unmask many important points for the average reader. One of the site’s best measurement is their SackSEER formula which, well, it’s better if they explain it.

One important note, however, is that the generally held thought that there’s no dynamic pass rusher or two in this class but rather a few guys who could fare well seems to hold up when applying the metric. Nathan Forster writes:

On balance, SackSEER believes that 2012 will be a fairly poor year for edge rushers, with only one strong prospect and a slew of likely-to-disappoint high-round picks. Last year, SackSEER 2.0 projected eight edge rushers to hit 20.0 sacks or more, led by Von Miller, who had the seventh highest SackSEER projection of all-time. SackSEER 2.0 only projects four of this year’s prospects to reach 20.0 sacks in their first five years in the league -— and they’re not necessarily the four whom you would expect.

In short, this class is half as good as last year for guys who can rush the passer. That should significantly affect the draft strategies of several teams who might bypass a great player at a deep position for the ability to grab one of a few real pass rushers.

The top four for Football Outsiders are interesting: Nick Perry of USC, Whitney Mercilus of Illinois, Shea McClellin of Boise State and Chandler Jones of Syracuse. Andre Branch of Clemson is also projected just at the bottom line of those predicted for at least 20 sacks in their first few years in the league.

In short, consider that the Kansas City Chiefs were among the three worst teams in the NFL last season at rushing the passer — yet they were credited for having a great defense. If the Chiefs are going to succeed this year, the pass rush has to get better. The maturation of Justin Houston will help as will the return of Eric Berry to allow everyone else to do what they do. But they also don’t have enough pass rushers in general.

Romeo Crennel admitted as much in a press conference, saying the can’t have enough pass rushers (along with speed receivers). Given the shortage here, the Chiefs could be in a real position to grab one at No. 11.

This could affect the draft board position of players commonly linked to the Chiefs in mock drafts. Why would the Chiefs take David DeCastro, a great guard certainly, when the draft is particularly deep in interior linemen? In short, it’s the one position in the draft where getting a starter in the fourth or even fifth round is not a stretch. Do the Chiefs change their strategy accordingly?

What about Luke Kuechly? Does the upgrade from Brandon Siler and Jovan Belcher as a tandem to move up to Kuechly’s "safe pick" level worth skipping over the best pass rushers available in the draft?

These are questions that are impossible for those of us outside of the Chiefs war room to answer. The Chiefs continue to surprise in many drafts since Scott Pioli arrived. No one saw the Tyson Jackson pick coming. Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas both provided perplexing moments at first. Pioli knows what his team needs and they will stick to it. But if that need is pass rusher, it shouldn’t surprise if the Chiefs stomp on every mock to make the pick they need.

[Coogs]

Having a NT who can collapse the pocket would go a long way to making our pass rush much more effective. It's maddning to watch opposing QB's step up in the pocket and take all day to survey the field. If the QB couldn't step up, Hali and Houston will have a field day from the outside. And it may even free up DJ, Belcher, or a safety blitz up the middle.

[Chiefshrink]

Having a NT who can collapse the pocket would go a long way to making our pass rush much more effective. It's maddning to watch opposing QB's step up in the pocket and take all day to survey the field. If the QB couldn't step up, Hali and Houston will have a field day from the outside. And it may even free up DJ, Belcher, or a safety blitz up the middle.

So, what NT do you want?

[Bewbies]

So, what NT do you want?

The good one, Chapman.

[buddha]

I couldn't get past the statement..."KC was credited for having a great defense (last year)." By whom?

The 1985 Chicago Bears had a great defense. The 2011 Chiefs did not have a great defense by any definition. Who is Matt Conner and what the hell is he talking about?

[The Franchise]

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http://www.giantsgab.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/whitney-mercilus-p1.jpg
http://nflsoup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Nick-Perry-USC.jpg


I'll take any one of these guys in the 1st round (either at 11 or trade down).

[buddha]

I like Perry and Ingram. The Illinois kid seems to have a high ceiling, but one year of production is tough to draft at #11. If we moved down, it could make sense.

[Dave Lane]

Having a NT who can collapse the pocket would go a long way to making our pass rush much more effective. It's maddning to watch opposing QB's step up in the pocket and take all day to survey the field. If the QB couldn't step up, Hali and Houston will have a field day from the outside. And it may even free up DJ, Belcher, or a safety blitz up the middle.

That's great except for the fact that there doesn't appear to be anyone of that caliber in this draft.

[Dave Lane]

I couldn't get past the statement..."KC was credited for having a great defense (last year)." By whom?

The 1985 Chicago Bears had a great defense. The 2011 Chiefs did not have a great defense by any definition. Who is Matt Conner and what the hell is he talking about?

Homers many of which post on this board.

[ChiefMojo]

What good does a pass rushing DT do for us??? We run a 3-4, not a 4-3! If we are willing to accept having a 4-3 DT type come in only on certain passing packages to rush the passer then fine but don't expect the player to play three downs. Sure we can draft a 3-4 OLB to rush the QB like a Shea McClellin in the 2nd round possibly (if he is still there) but we already have Hali and Houston to start.

In a 3-4, the DE's aren't pass rusher but run stoppers first. Much like a NT in the 3-4. their job is to hold up the point of attack along the line of scrimmage. If you can find a player that can do that and have the ability to rush the passer, then GREAT! Those players are hard to find. Guys like Richard Seymour come to mind. The only guy in this draft I would take at the #11 spot that possibly could play the role of run stuffer and pass rusher from a 3-4 DE spot is Fletcher Cox. I would be 100% fine taking Cox if he can perform those dual roles. Are we sure someone like Brockers could develop into a good pass rusher?

[whoman69]

The pass rush was much better after Houston got his feet wet. It would certainly help to have a lineman that can get in there and rush as well, or put some pressure in there. Jackson is getting better at that , but still has a ways to go. Dorsey is worthless in pass rush and that's why he gets replaced on obvious passing downs. If we get an outside pass rusher, we're just replacing Hali or Houston. What do we gain? I don't think an outside rusher would have the inside moves for us to use the Giants scheme of pass rush.

[The Franchise]

That's why you take Ingram. He can play a TON of spots. ILB, OLB, DE. You can rotate him in with Belcher or Houston. In nickle packages.....you can put him and Houston on the line and let Hali play the Falcon. He offers the most versatility.

[KCrockaholic]

If Ingram is there, then take him.

If not, then take Decastro and have a top 5 O-line.

[buddha]

If Ingram is there, then take him.

If not, then take Decastro and have a top 5 O-line.

Que the anti-DeCastro mocking...

KCrockaholic, didn't you hear that offensive guards are a dime a dozen and that you can get one any time? Just read virtually any thread on this board and you can educate yourself on that. Pay no attention to the impact of great guards from the past! Football was "different" back then (whenever "then" was). OGs have become virtually meaningless.

Only a chump who couldn't begin to understand football at the level of many who post on here would draft somebody like DeCastro at #11.

[Nightfyre]

Que the anti-DeCastro mocking...

KCrockaholic, didn't you hear that offensive guards are a dime a dozen and that you can get one any time? Just read virtually any thread on this board and you can educate yourself on that. Pay no attention to the impact of great guards from the past! Football was "different" back then (whenever "then" was). OGs have become virtually meaningless.

Only a chump who couldn't begin to understand football at the level of many who post on here would draft somebody like DeCastro at #11.

What was the impact of the great guards in the past, again?

[Bewbies]

DeCastro is the difference between no playoff wins since 1993 and no playoff wins since 1993.

[KCrockaholic]

I don't know why I feel like I missed some kind of Decastro joke recently.

I want KC to take him because he's an elite guard, and it fills a position of slight need. Lilja is going downhill...There isn't an elite NT in this draft class. A couple projects, but nothing concrete. The QB's available at 11 won't be anything special. I'd be ok with multiple scenarios, including Mark Barron, trading down, Ingram, even Mercilus.

Decastro is just the best pick at 11 this year. But I'd also love to trade down, take Konz, and pick up an extra pick or 2.

[Bewbies]

DeCastro at 11 is tremendous value, a shining example of how you build a team that goes decades without winning a playoff game.

[Dante84]

I don't know why I feel like I missed some kind of Decastro joke recently.

I want KC to take him because he's an elite guard, and it fills a position of slight need. Lilja is going downhill...There isn't an elite NT in this draft class. A couple projects, but nothing concrete. The QB's available at 11 won't be anything special. I'd be ok with multiple scenarios, including Mark Barron, trading down, Ingram, even Mercilus.

Decastro is just the best pick at 11 this year. But I'd also love to trade down, take Konz, and pick up an extra pick or 2.

That's the joke.

[Sorter]

^This. With DeCastro and our top-5 OL, we might be 10-6 again!

[KCrockaholic]

Considering we couldn't gain squat last year up the middle of our line last year, I'd say the addition of Decastro would greatly improve our 3rd and short, and runs up the middle. KC ranked 28th in 2011 when running up the middle.

[Dante84]

Considering we couldn't gain squat last year up the middle of our line last year, I'd say the addition of any guard in a later round would greatly improve our 3rd and short, and runs up the middle. KC ranked 28th in 2011 when running up the middle.

fyp

[Bewbies]

DeCastro at 11. Because a 20 year drought it just not long enough.

[Dante84]

*Also, keep in mind we had Tom Jones and Jessica Battle running the ball, hence the 28th rank when running in the middle.

[milkman]

Que the anti-DeCastro mocking...

KCrockaholic, didn't you hear that offensive guards are a dime a dozen and that you can get one any time? Just read virtually any thread on this board and you can educate yourself on that. Pay no attention to the impact of great guards from the past! Football was "different" back then (whenever "then" was). OGs have become virtually meaningless.

Only a chump who couldn't begin to understand football at the level of many who post on here would draft somebody like DeCastro at #11.

.

Why would the Chiefs take David DeCastro, a great guard certainly, when the draft is particularly deep in interior linemen?

[O.city]

Again, if we are taking an interior lineman in the first, it needs to be at a spot we actually need. LIKE CENTER.


Take Konz.


Hell take him at 11, I don't care.

[BossChief]

We dont need to be desperate with a G or C because Hudsons versatility allows us to target a much wider spectrum of players.

We can probably get a difference making guard or center in the mid rounds that would be damn good and then put Hudson at the open spot.

[Mecca]

Konz durability concerns me...I think I'd mark him off the list.

[Hoover]

So since this draft class is kinda weak along the Dline, does that mean we could get good value for Dorsey?

[Bewbies]

Dorsey has a lot of trade value once we move Albert to LG.

[KCrockaholic]

Konz durability concerns me...I think I'd mark him off the list.

WTF. You are alive?

[Mecca]

WTF. You are alive?

I'm posting from the grave.

[Mr. Laz]

people balk about drafting someone that replaces Belcher but they want to draft a pass rusher that will replace Houston or be a complete specialist.

3-4 defense generates a pass rusher from blitzing and Crennel doesn't like to blitz, so what's the point?

Barron in 1st and Ta'amu in the 2nd gives us the most band for our defensive buck imo.

[Chiefshrink]

and it fills a position of slight need..

and there's the issue right there, 'slight' on the O-line vs 'great' on the D pass rush especially now that Manning has arrived.:hmmm:

[KCrockaholic]

and there's the issue right there, 'slight' on the O-line vs 'great' on the D pass rush especially now that Manning has arrived.:hmmm:

Is it really that much of a need with the breakthrough of Houston? Put a better nose up front and the pass rush will improve by default.

And Philip Rivers is better than pm right now, so I don't care.

[buddha]

people balk about drafting someone that replaces Belcher but they want to draft a pass rusher that will replace Houston or be a complete specialist.

3-4 defense generates a pass rusher from blitzing and Crennel doesn't like to blitz, so what's the point?

Barron in 1st and Ta'amu in the 2nd gives us the most band for our defensive buck imo.

I'd be happy with those two. Barron is the real deal, and I think Ta'amu is pretty damn salty.

[Dante84]

I'd be happy with those two. Barron is the real deal, and I think Ta'amu is pretty damn salty.

NO.

Barron is a pussy who arm tackles. Watch this; every tackle he is in on, save one, he avoids contact like its the plague.

He's a goddamn safety, and he should be hitting dudes like a son of a bitch.

When he makes contact, he gets driven backwards EVERY TIME. This dude is going to be like Cromartie in the NFL. And he going to get run the fuck over.

Look at :50, 1:28, 3:10, 4:08

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/PmCuQt-sryE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Saccopoo]

Barron isn't that good. He still struggles in pass protection and as Dante stated, he tends to whiff.

For a "physical" player, he isn't that physical.

And then add to it the hernia surgery and the torn pec surgery (which can ruin a guys career) along with the arrest a year and a half ago, he not even close to being worth a first round pick. (I had him as a third rounder at best to start the season based on his inability to effectively cover in pass pro.)

He is not as fluid as Harrison Smith, who has identical size and production - who should be available in the second round when the Chiefs pick.

That being said, players like Winston Guy (Kentucky), Sean Cattouse (Cal) and Blake Gideon (Texas) aren't that far off from either Barron or Smith in terms of talent and production and could be had in the later rounds of the draft.

The safety I really like is Jerron McMillian from Maine who will be a late rounder or free agent. Very instinctive and a solid tackler. Flys to the ball and really hits when he gets there.