Top-Ten QBs: What to Expect.

[Rain Man]

Okay, let's assume that we're #1 and we draft Geno. What does Geno end up doing for us?

Recognizing that there's some controversy about whether he's a "normal #1 pick", let's look at the quarterbacks taken in the top 10 in the draft over the past 20 years. I'm not sure whether to include the last class or two since we don't know what we've got yet, but I'll throw them in.

I'm putting them in my own order of value, but feel free to rearrange. With some of the new guys, it's hard to place them right now.

Having said that, we've got the following gentlemen in our group.

90th percentile
Peyton Manning
Donovan McNabb
Steve McNair

80th percentile
Eli Manning
Drew Bledsoe
Robert Griffin III

70th percentile
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton

60th percentile
Andrew Luck
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer

50th percentile
Kerry Collins
Trent Dilfer
Alex Smith

40th percentile
Sam Bradford
Jake Locker
Byron Leftwich

30th percentile
David Carr
Vince Young
Tim Couch
Ryan Tannehill

20th percentile
Mark Sanchez
Blaine Gabbert
Rick Mirer

10th percentile
Joey Harrington
Heath Shuler
Matt Leinert

0th percentile
Akili Smith
Jamarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf


So there's about a 30 percent chance that we'll get a total bust out of the deal, and another 30 percent that we'll get a game manager who is not a toad, but he's not going to carry the team. The other 40 percent looks pretty darn good, and since Geno will go #1, you hope that his odds are a little better than this.

What say you, rank and file members?

[-King-]

60th percentile
Andrew Luck
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer


Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.








Whoa.

[Rain Man]

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.








Whoa.


I detect some disagreement.

I'm not really sure what to do with Luck at this point. The team has rebounded, but they were only bad for one season. So is he the difference, or were they sucking for Luck?

I put RGIII higher primarily because he seems to have energized the fan base more. To be honest, I haven't seen Luck and haven't heard much about him. I figured he'd be one of the more controversial placements.

[Chiefnj2]

What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.

[mnchiefsguy]

No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.

I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton.

I would swap Tannehill and Locker.....maybe. That was my first gut reaction, but neither of them have lit a fire this year.

I think Geno is as good as Carson Palmer out of the box, and with the right coaching, he could move up to the 80th or 90th percentile in a few seasons.

[KurtCobain]

Yeah, don't categorize luck with palmer, bud.

[Hoover]

I don't get your rankings.

Where is Big Ben?
Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?

[KurtCobain]

I want bray at number one.

[Rain Man]

One pattern that clearly emerges is that we need to draft a quarterback whose last name starts with M.

I think I rate McNabb higher than some others, but the guy produced. Great arm, great scrambler, got his team to a Super Bowl and at least three more conference championships. He got things done.

[Rain Man]

I don't get your rankings.

Where is Big Ben?
Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?

Ben wasn't a top ten pick.

Do people think that Manning carries the Giants? I think it was pretty clear that McNabb carried the Eagles.

[wazu]

People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 30/30/40 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.

[HolyHat]

Hearing the name Matt Barkley makes me want to kick an infant.

[Rain Man]

No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.

I can see that argument.

I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton.

Who do you move down in that scenario? Someone has to move down if Luck moves up. Note that Luck's QB rating this season is something like 75.

[Rain Man]

People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 33/33/33 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.

Good point, and I think that's the bottom line.

Regardless of the details, we can see that we have about a 40 percent chance of getting a QB that will make the team significantly stronger, a 30 percent chance that he'll be an anchor, and a 30 percent chance that he'll just float along. Overall, I think those are good odds.

[BlackHelicopters]

Post season play is all that matters. Eli has two Super Bowl wins, like him or not. Better than McNabb by a ways, and even better than his brother.

[BlackHelicopters]

Trent Dilfer won a SB as well, whether he deserved to or not makes little difference. My math may be off, but 4 SB winners from the Top Ten in 20 years = 25%. Odds are better than what we have had, but 75% of SB winners in the last 20 years were not top ten picks. Flame away.

[O.city]

More SB winners have come from the first round, than the rest of the places to get a QB combined.


First round QB's=58%
Rounds 2-7, UDFA's=42%

[KurtCobain]

I can see that argument.



Who do you move down in that scenario? Someone has to move down if Luck moves up. Note that Luck's QB rating this season is something like 75.

Newton.

[Reaper16]

I refuse to participate until the percentiles reflect reality.

[Rain Man]

I refuse to participate until the percentiles reflect reality.

You mean instead of deciles? Okay, here you go.

96th percentile
Peyton Manning
93rd percentile
Donovan McNabb
90th percentile
Steve McNair
87th percentile
Eli Manning
84th percentile
Drew Bledsoe
81st percentile
Robert Griffin III
78th percentile
Philip Rivers
75th percentile
Matthew Stafford
71st percentile
Matt Ryan
68th percentile
Cam Newton
65th percentile
Andrew Luck
62nd percentile
Michael Vick
59th percentile
Carson Palmer
56th percentile
Kerry Collins
53rd percentile
Trent Dilfer
50th percentile
Alex Smith
46th percentile
Sam Bradford
43rd percentile
Jake Locker
40th percentile
Byron Leftwich
37th percentile
David Carr
34th percentile
Vince Young
31st percentile
Tim Couch
28th percentile
Ryan Tannehill
25th percentile
Mark Sanchez
21st percentile
Blaine Gabbert
18th percentile
Rick Mirer
15th percentile
Joey Harrington
12th percentile
Heath Shuler
9th percentile
Matt Leinert
6th percentile
Akili Smith
3rd percentile
Jamarcus Russell
0th percentile
Ryan Leaf

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

So you're saying Jamaarcus Russel was better than Ryan Leaf ??

[keg in kc]

It's really hard to say how anybody will do at QB next year without knowing who'll be on the field with them. Is Bowe here? Will Baldwin finally progress? Is Breaston playing? Who are the tight ends?

I could see anything from a Peyton Manning rookie year (@ 3750 yards, 25 TDs, 25 INTs) to a Mark Sanchez rookie year (@ 2500 yards, 15 TD, 20 INT). I would not expect Robert Griffin stats from anybody, he's just crazy in terms of completion percentage for a rookie (66% right now) along with his 18/4 TD/INT ratio. Assuming he can play the rest of the year he'll end up with probably 3500 yards, which is rookie Peyton Manning production but with a much, much higher completion percentage and much lower INT%. And that to me is a bit much to expect. Ditto for Andrew Luck's yardage numbers this year (he'll be over 4000 - although his comp % isn't that great).

Median, I guess would be something like 3250 yards, 20 TD, 20 INT. Which would be the best QB play we've seen since Trent Green and probably enough to get the team in danger of 8-8, maybe even talking playoffs.

[notorious]

http://aznbadger.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/scannersexplodinghead.gif?w=406

[scho63]

NO MATT BARKLEY OR ANY MORE USC QB'S PERIOD!!! THEY SUCK IN THE NFL

[FlaChief58]

NO MATT BARKLEY OR ANY MORE USC QB'S PERIOD!!! THEY SUCK IN THE NFL

This....There's deffinatly a pattern of failure there

[PhillyChiefFan]

What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.

Hell of a gig for those guys, not too big of shoes to fill as of recently...

[mcaj22]

you do realize all the guys in the 50th percintile are better on paper than most of the guys in the 70th percintile.

lol

[Buns]

Where's jay cutler?

Edit:Not in the top ten, that's where. Sorry.

[Demonpenz]

Carson Palmer was pretty good pre knee injury.