Mr. Kotter
01-09-2013, 11:07 AM
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Chiefs could mirror Colts in 2013
<HR SIZE=1 width="100%" noShade>By Khaled Elsayed
Pro Football Focus
Quite a year year from the Indianapolis Colts, wasn't it? In 2011 they were the worst team in all of football. Now they're a playoff team with a bright future.
That's how quickly things can change in the NFL. One minute you're going nowhere and the next you're a team to watch. That's what happens with a salary cap that evens the playing field as much as possible, where contests are decided by moments of magic and madness, and where on any given Sunday, any team can beat another.
So what about next year? Which team has the ability to put a disappointing 2012 behind them and make a run at the postseason?
Well there's one team that stands out, and it's the Kansas City Chiefs.
What went wrong in 2012?
It's not hard where to point the finger as you look at a team that got it horribly wrong by investing in Matt Cassel as a franchise quarterback. It was a decision that doomed the franchise to defeat, and it ultimately cost Scott ***** his job. ***** was the guy who gave up a second-round draft pick for a player who really wasn't all that good when he stepped in for Tom Brady in 2008.
In that season, Cassel's passing totals were vastly inflated by yards after the catch. In fact, Cassel had a higher percentage of his passing yards come after the catch (54.7 percent) than any other QB that season. Just 8.9 percent of his passes were thrown 20 yards in the air or further (eighth lowest in the league). Ignoring this and focusing on the win column is what doomed the Chiefs. Cassel wasn't responsible for the Patriots' record that season … but he was responsible for much of the Chiefs' poor early play in 2012.
His performance this year saw him falter, as is the norm, whenever pressure got in his face. Against those conditions he completed just 41.3 percent of passes for 5.4 yards per attempt. Still, at least those numbers were better than the 33.9 completion percentage and 2.9 yards per attempt that Brady Quin managed. It's a shame, really, since the team's running game worked well, particularly on the right side of the line. On runs from the right shoulder of the center to the outside shoulder of any tight ends on the right side of the line, they averaged 5 yards per carry, even with Brady Quinn not quite at 100 percent. Despite what his 1,518 yards may tell you, he's capable of more if you go by his 2010 tape.
In theory, that should have lent itself to better production using play-action, but neither Quinn (who ran play-action on 20.4 percent of his snaps) or Cassel (16.7 percent) used it heavily. It's odd, because Quinn especially was more productive with it (his completion percentage shot up to 70.3 percent using it).
Quarterback play wasn't the only reason they failed, and ***** had to go. Unfortunately, his selection of Tyson Jackson will go down as one of the worst in Chiefs history, with the defensive end failing to become an every-down player, generating just 26 combined sacks, hits and hurries in his first four years in the league. By comparison, second-round rookie Kendall Reyes managed 33 alone this year.
After an excellent 2008 draft, the Chiefs simply failed to reinforce themselves well. But all hope is not lost.
The fix is in
The hire of Andy Reid will no doubt get everyone talking, and rightly so. After all, why did Reid take the team whose record tells us they were the worst in football last year?
Is it because the challenge appealed? Because of the money offered? Or because it was a place where he felt he could best succeed?
If you take a look at the Chiefs defense you might very well believe that it's because Reid, who is pretty hands-off with the defense, sees a lot of talent and potential to work with. In the modern NFL you need guys to be able to get to the passer, and in the duo of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston they have just that. We all know what Hali can do -- 46 quarterback disruptions on 393 pass rushes is a down year for him -- but Houston is a guy who is emerging to become someone to watch.
One of the few 3-4 outside linebackers truly capable of making plays in every role asked out of him (the Chiefs felt comfortable enough to drop him into coverage on 33.3 percent of passing plays), Houston finished the year sixth in our 3-4 outside linebacker pass-rushing productivity stat and with 28 defensive stops in the run game (third-most at the position).
With other talented players on defense like Derrick Johnson (who has finished in the top five of our rankings for the inside linebacker spot two years in a row) and corner Brandon Flowers (who allowed completions on just 50 percent of balls into his coverage, eighth-lowest in the league), this unit has it in them to suffocate the opposition. They just need to get better play chiefly on the defensive line, where, as we've discussed, early-round picks haven't led to on-field production.
But yet even with a defense brimming with talent, the quarterback position remains the key, and this is where Reid, quarterback guru, will need to get it right. Reid is seen as a guy who can develop passers, so in theory a job where quarterback is the biggest problem will be viewed with excitement as opposed to trepidation.
Whether that means working with that they have (as unlikely as that is) or looking to either the draft or free agency remains to be seen. But if they can find an upgrade under center for 2013, this is a team primed for a turnaround.
Chiefs could mirror Colts in 2013
<HR SIZE=1 width="100%" noShade>By Khaled Elsayed
Pro Football Focus
Quite a year year from the Indianapolis Colts, wasn't it? In 2011 they were the worst team in all of football. Now they're a playoff team with a bright future.
That's how quickly things can change in the NFL. One minute you're going nowhere and the next you're a team to watch. That's what happens with a salary cap that evens the playing field as much as possible, where contests are decided by moments of magic and madness, and where on any given Sunday, any team can beat another.
So what about next year? Which team has the ability to put a disappointing 2012 behind them and make a run at the postseason?
Well there's one team that stands out, and it's the Kansas City Chiefs.
What went wrong in 2012?
It's not hard where to point the finger as you look at a team that got it horribly wrong by investing in Matt Cassel as a franchise quarterback. It was a decision that doomed the franchise to defeat, and it ultimately cost Scott ***** his job. ***** was the guy who gave up a second-round draft pick for a player who really wasn't all that good when he stepped in for Tom Brady in 2008.
In that season, Cassel's passing totals were vastly inflated by yards after the catch. In fact, Cassel had a higher percentage of his passing yards come after the catch (54.7 percent) than any other QB that season. Just 8.9 percent of his passes were thrown 20 yards in the air or further (eighth lowest in the league). Ignoring this and focusing on the win column is what doomed the Chiefs. Cassel wasn't responsible for the Patriots' record that season … but he was responsible for much of the Chiefs' poor early play in 2012.
His performance this year saw him falter, as is the norm, whenever pressure got in his face. Against those conditions he completed just 41.3 percent of passes for 5.4 yards per attempt. Still, at least those numbers were better than the 33.9 completion percentage and 2.9 yards per attempt that Brady Quin managed. It's a shame, really, since the team's running game worked well, particularly on the right side of the line. On runs from the right shoulder of the center to the outside shoulder of any tight ends on the right side of the line, they averaged 5 yards per carry, even with Brady Quinn not quite at 100 percent. Despite what his 1,518 yards may tell you, he's capable of more if you go by his 2010 tape.
In theory, that should have lent itself to better production using play-action, but neither Quinn (who ran play-action on 20.4 percent of his snaps) or Cassel (16.7 percent) used it heavily. It's odd, because Quinn especially was more productive with it (his completion percentage shot up to 70.3 percent using it).
Quarterback play wasn't the only reason they failed, and ***** had to go. Unfortunately, his selection of Tyson Jackson will go down as one of the worst in Chiefs history, with the defensive end failing to become an every-down player, generating just 26 combined sacks, hits and hurries in his first four years in the league. By comparison, second-round rookie Kendall Reyes managed 33 alone this year.
After an excellent 2008 draft, the Chiefs simply failed to reinforce themselves well. But all hope is not lost.
The fix is in
The hire of Andy Reid will no doubt get everyone talking, and rightly so. After all, why did Reid take the team whose record tells us they were the worst in football last year?
Is it because the challenge appealed? Because of the money offered? Or because it was a place where he felt he could best succeed?
If you take a look at the Chiefs defense you might very well believe that it's because Reid, who is pretty hands-off with the defense, sees a lot of talent and potential to work with. In the modern NFL you need guys to be able to get to the passer, and in the duo of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston they have just that. We all know what Hali can do -- 46 quarterback disruptions on 393 pass rushes is a down year for him -- but Houston is a guy who is emerging to become someone to watch.
One of the few 3-4 outside linebackers truly capable of making plays in every role asked out of him (the Chiefs felt comfortable enough to drop him into coverage on 33.3 percent of passing plays), Houston finished the year sixth in our 3-4 outside linebacker pass-rushing productivity stat and with 28 defensive stops in the run game (third-most at the position).
With other talented players on defense like Derrick Johnson (who has finished in the top five of our rankings for the inside linebacker spot two years in a row) and corner Brandon Flowers (who allowed completions on just 50 percent of balls into his coverage, eighth-lowest in the league), this unit has it in them to suffocate the opposition. They just need to get better play chiefly on the defensive line, where, as we've discussed, early-round picks haven't led to on-field production.
But yet even with a defense brimming with talent, the quarterback position remains the key, and this is where Reid, quarterback guru, will need to get it right. Reid is seen as a guy who can develop passers, so in theory a job where quarterback is the biggest problem will be viewed with excitement as opposed to trepidation.
Whether that means working with that they have (as unlikely as that is) or looking to either the draft or free agency remains to be seen. But if they can find an upgrade under center for 2013, this is a team primed for a turnaround.