Top 10 Offense?

[Mr. Arrowhead]

On NFL Live, they had a debate on whether the Chiefs can be a Top 10 offense, and surprisingly they both thought that we would be in the top 10 in offense. Kind of crazy

[Dayze]

uh no.

[Ace Gunner]

to the bigwheels

[Pasta Little Brioni]

They will be.

[Ace Gunner]

They will be.

**Jamaal Effin Charles Fist Pump**

[AdumbGuy]

I mean, i suppose technically it's possible Charles could run for 4000yds and 40 TDs, but these expectations from him are ridiculous.

[Marcellus]

Didn't we have a top 3 offense in yards gained almost halfway though the season last year?

If its points I am all for it, otherwise, meh.

[lead_block]

LMAO

[Ace Gunner]

I mean, i suppose technically it's possible Charles could run for 4000yds and 40 TDs, but these expectations from him are ridiculous.

THIS X 3 /per game would do it :p
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1207447/charles.gif

[TambaBerry]

it all depends on play calling, if its 3 and 13 from the 40 yard line and we run a draw then no. If we take zero shots past 5 yards for a pass play then no.

[loochy]

If the playcalling isn't completely idiotic and Smith can complete at least SOME mid range to deep passes then that will open things way up for the running game.

It's possible, but Smith and the playcallers have to come through.

[ChiefAshhole20]

THIS X 3 /per game would do it :p
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1207447/charles.gif

I could watch this all day...

[crossbow]

How do you get a top ten offense with a below average QB who has only one proven receiver to throw to? Man that would take some creative game planning.

[loochy]

How do you get a top ten offense with a below average QB who has only one proven receiver to throw to? Man that would take some creative game planning.

exactly : creative game planning/play calling + good O line + good RB

[Mr. Arrowhead]

How do you get a top ten offense with a below average QB who has only one proven receiver to throw to? Man that would take some creative game planning.

They were saying since Smith takes care of the ball then that gives Bowe and Charles more touches to make plays

[crossbow]

They were saying since Smith takes care of the ball then that gives Bowe and Charles more touches to make plays

Third down conversions will give them more opportunities and touches. Can Alex Mediocre Smith convert consistently or do we see the grand check-off show? Besides, a lot of this depends on the quality of the defenses they will face.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

What is the lowest ranked offense Reid had over the last decade?

[Mr. Arrowhead]

What is the lowest ranked offense Reid had over the last decade?
His 1st year in philly they were 30th, they had a 15th, 17th, 18th, and 19th finish. But every other year they have been in the top 11

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ReidAn0.htm

[BlackHelicopters]

To the watchtower

[jd1020]

Remember when the "experts" picked the Chiefs to win the division in 2012? ROFL

[mcaj22]

What is the lowest ranked offense Reid had over the last decade?

his first and last years

2012 was god damn terrible for both offense and defense

[Frazod]

I think it's possible, although not likely. Cassel/Quinn sucked so bad that we could have had hall of famers at every other position and it wouldn't have mattered.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Maybe is Charles has 2000 Yards.

[BlackHelicopters]

Peter King approves this thread.

[Mr. Laz]

media loves Alex Smith

[DaFace]

Could they? Sure. Not going to hold my breath, but we've certainly got a talented group on that side of the ball at this point. Just depends on whether Alex is good enough to let Charles and Bowe shine.

[-King-]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Alex Smith will hold the potential back a bit, but I believe in Reids ability to coach offense.

[mcaj22]

im thinking top 10 offense and bottom 10 defense

[Baby Lee]

I could watch this all day...

That head and shoulder wag after he clears the last defender is moving up the charts in all time Chiefs memories. It's just so joyous.

Most of my favorites are DT centric, and they are either pre-snap [called safety] or mid effort.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

im thinking top 10 offense and bottom 10 defense

:spock:

[Ace Gunner]

I'm going to guess

13th Offense
9th Defense

[-King-]

im thinking top 10 offense and bottom 10 defense

Why the hell would our defense be bottom 10?

[loochy]

Why the hell would our defense be bottom 10?

Why the hell would our offense be top 10?

[RunKC]

I think our offense will be somewhere in the 14-18 range and our defense will be around the 9-15 range.

[BossChief]

Offense should be middle of the pack at around 17th while the defense should benefit from the change in philosophy as well as the offense being able to sustain more drives therefore giving the defense more time to rest and make adjustments. I can see the defense coming in around the same place...I'll give them the edge and place them at 13th.

That's the way I see things shaking out.

8-8/9-7 record (after starting out 3-5 and finishing strong)

[-King-]

Why the hell would our offense be top 10?

If Alex Smith can be mediocre or just a bit above, our offense can be deadly. We have a coach that has had a top 10 offense 8 times the last 14 years (only 4 times did the Eagles rank lower than 15th). With Charles, Bowe and the O-line we have, we should be pretty good.

[RunKC]

A lot of people are underestimating Travis Kelce. The guy is gonna be used a shit ton and he's going to frustrate LB's with his speed.

[Dayze]

with this team, and how they've crushed my spiritis annually....

I have zero expectatinos of them until I see them.

[BigMeatballDave]

bottom 10 defense

LMAO

[BlackHelicopters]

Will withhold hope until I see signs of hope.

[Ace Gunner]

hope finds direction
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1465179/jamarrrl.gif

[Ace Gunner]

A lot of people are underestimating Travis Kelce. The guy is gonna be used a shit ton and he's going to frustrate LB's with his speed.

I'm eager to see both Moeaki & Kelce in pistol formation. could be tricky to defend.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/327543/Nevada_Pistol_Formation_medium.jpg

[O.city]

As of right now, I don't think Moeaki is much of a factor this year. I'm more interested in Fasano and Kelce at TE.

[Ming the Merciless]

If things go extremely well, we could be top 10 in terms of rushing yards and attempts

but

top 10 overall in points or total yards? very doubtful

[crazycoffey]

As of right now, I don't think Moeaki is much of a factor this year. I'm more interested in Fasano and Kelce at TE.

Don't forget Baldwin, he's going to redefine the TE position

[Chief_For_Life58]

brokeaki is done in kc. fasano and kelce are the future. id say were average in offense, and better than average pretty good in defense. 7 wins

[Chief_For_Life58]

or 6

[Chief_For_Life58]

or 0

[stonedstooge]

Only if they continue with the Diabolical Daboll Plan

[DJ's left nut]

How do you get a top ten offense with a below average QB who has only one proven receiver to throw to? Man that would take some creative game planning.

A) Alex Smith is an average QB. He's not good, he's just in that mash of QBs in the middle of the league. The Chiefs will get average QB play this year

B) It's hard to say that Avery is completely 'unproven' at this point. When healthy, he's a good bet to go for 50ish catches and 700 yards or so. Avery's not a stud, but I do think it's fair to say that he's proven he's a capable WR in this league when he's able to stay healthy. Though that's obviously a hell of a caveat.

C) Andy Reid's a smart guy. He's made chicken salad out of chicken shit for a few years and has proven to be as good or better than any HC in the NFL at utilizing his RB in the short passing game. Charles is definitely a weapon out of the backfield.


I wouldn't bet that the Chiefs will get to the top 10, but I'm also not going to say it's not possible. They have some pieces and a line that should do them a lot of favors. Alex Smith struggles when pressured. However, he had one of the top 5 QB ratings in the league when not facing pressure, IIRC, and this line should be able to keep guys off him. Additionally, Charles should keep them honest.

The Chiefs can be a good offense.

[mcaj22]

LMAO

I can easily name 20 better defenses than I can 20 better offenses in terms of talent.

any defense with a good DL or 2 good CBs/Safeties is automatically better than us alone.

[-King-]

I can easily name 20 better defenses than I can 20 better offenses in terms of talent.


Ok, go ahead.

[Mr. Laz]

i figure between 10-18 on both sides of the ball


now ... if the team learns how to win then 10-18 on both sides of the ball can lead to a pretty decent record. If they play stupid and don't know how to win then it can be a shitty record.

special team will be important too ... our ST have been pretty weak lately imo

[CoMoChief]

This team isn't built for that.

Why?

No franchise QB

Brady
Manning
Ryan
Brees
Rodgers

these are the teams that have a chance year in and out to be top 10 offenses.


When you have a QB that defenses specifically have to prepare for, is when your team has a chance to be a top10 offense. I doubt any def coord goes into the weekly meetings and are like "K guys we need to do X,Y,Z to try and stop Alex Smith". Instead they'll say "Put 8-9 in the box and jam Bowe at the line".

[Baby Lee]

This team isn't built for that.

Why?

No franchise QB

Brady
Manning
Ryan
Brees
Rodgers

these are the teams that have a chance year in and out to be top 10 offenses.


When you have a QB that defenses specifically have to prepare for, is when your team has a chance to be a top10 offense. I doubt any def coord goes into the weekly meetings and are like "K guys we need to do X,Y,Z to try and stop Alex Smith". Instead they'll say "Put 8-9 in the box and jam Bowe at the line".

Was going to point out that this post asserts that 5 teams have a chance to be top 10.

Then I saw who posted it

[CoMoChief]

Was going to point out that this post asserts that 5 teams have a chance to be top 10.

Then I saw who posted it

These are the QB's in the NFL that can consistently be in that top10 group year in year out.

But then I saw who responded to my post.

[-King-]

These are the QB's in the NFL that can consistently be in that top10 group year in year out.


What does that have to do with this thread?

[keg in kc]

They have the line and the skill position talent for it. If they get quality play calling and halfway competent quarterback play they might push top 10.

[Marcellus]

I can easily name 20 better defenses than I can 20 better offenses in terms of talent.

any defense with a good DL or 2 good CBs/Safeties is automatically better than us alone.

You would be wrong. It's that simple. You can't name 20 I mean you can name names but you would be wrong.

[ChiefAshhole20]

I can easily name 20 better defenses than I can 20 better offenses in terms of talent.

any defense with a good DL or 2 good CBs/Safeties is automatically better than us alone.

So you're just going to deem the strength of the Defense completely irrelevant?

[Chiefshrink]

How about a 2-14 schedule this year. That really helps:thumb:

[keg in kc]

How about a 2-14 schedule this year. That really helps:thumb:That mattered 20 years ago. Now it's just a difference of 2 games.

[DaFace]

How about a 2-14 schedule this year. That really helps:thumb:

That's only worth two games. It doesn't make THAT big of a difference.

[DaneMcCloud]

How about a 2-14 schedule this year. That really helps:thumb:

No, it doesn't. The NFL adopted a balanced schedule years ago, making a last place schedule nearly irrelevant.

I don't think anyone would claim that the Giants, Redskins, Eagles or Cowboys will be easy to beat. Nor will the Colts, Texans or even the Browns be in any way a "gimme".

[BossChief]

Why are people getting a hard time that arent cementing us as even a top 20 defense?

Our new DC doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume...the DL has lots of room for improvement, Berry has been targetable in coverage, Robinson will get burnt repeatedly, outside of Houston and Hali we have no accomplished pass rushers and the free safety position is a pure question mark. They are all learning new techniques and philosophies, too.

We have a boom or bust defense. It is what it is.

I think the unit as a whole has a chance to be top ten, but a lot of things need to fall into place for that to happen.

[DTLB58]

Didn't we have a top 3 offense in yards gained almost halfway though the season last year?

If its points I am all for it, otherwise, meh.

Exactly.

Points is the key. When they usually talk about top anything in the NFL it's yards and yards don't mean squat if you can't score or keep them from scoring.

[Chiefshrink]

That mattered 20 years ago. Now it's just a difference of 2 games.

That's only worth two games. It doesn't make THAT big of a difference.

No, it doesn't. The NFL adopted a balanced schedule years ago, making a last place schedule nearly irrelevant.

I don't think anyone would claim that the Giants, Redskins, Eagles or Cowboys will be easy to beat. Nor will the Colts, Texans or even the Browns be in any way a "gimme".

Totally get all your points on the 'parity factor' BUT 2 games will matter at the end of the season trying to get into the playoffs/winning or not winning the division. Just sayin.

[QuikSsurfer]

blah

[DTLB58]

How do you get a top ten offense with a below average QB who has only one proven receiver to throw to? Man that would take some creative game planning.

Beastly running game and lots of mid range passing game to multiple TE's.
Haven't you been following the off-season plan man? :p

[Chiefshrink]

And don't think for a moment it didn't allow Matt to be an all pro in 2010 either because it immensely helped him.

[DTLB58]

Could they? Sure. Not going to hold my breath, but we've certainly got a talented group on that side of the ball at this point. Just depends on whether Alex is good enough to let Charles and Bowe shine.

And the TE's. They must come thru in this offense. One big time or 2-3 sharing the load, but this position will have to bail Smith out when Bowe isn't open and JC is out of breath from his overload.

[BossChief]

And don't think for a moment it didn't allow Matt to be an all pro in 2010 either because it immensely helped him.

Cassel hasn't ever been an all pro.

[Chiefshrink]

Cassel hasn't ever been an all pro.

Oh I agree but he did go to the All Star game !!:rolleyes:

[SDChiefs]

Oh I agree but he did go to the All Star game !!:rolleyes:

anybody can buy tickets to the all star game. but what does baseball have to do with this topic

[ChiefGator]

I can see it. We had a really good running game, and our O-Line looks to be improved. And our QB was absolutely awful, and we upgraded to a top 10 QB. I think our D and O can vastly improved.

[DaneMcCloud]

Oh I agree but he did go to the All Star game !!:rolleyes:

He was like a fifth alternate. Who cares.

[BossChief]

Holy shit!

When did we get a top 10 QB?

[keg in kc]

Totally get all your points on the 'parity factor' BUT 2 games will matter at the end of the season trying to get into the playoffs/winning or not winning the division. Just sayin.The thread's about having a top 10 offense. And maybe playing two 4th place teams will help that. Either way the difference schedule makes in today's NFL really is minimal, when you're talking about where you ended up the prior year in your division. Which divisions you end up playing against are much more important, for both wins and for the less meaningful stats.

[Sorter]

Top 10 in points or yards?

[Tombstone RJ]

I'm sure Reid will be able to manufacture some points but top 10? That's a tall order...

[HolyHat]

I can see it. We had a really good running game, and our O-Line looks to be improved. And our QB was absolutely awful, and we upgraded to a top 10 QB. I think our D and O can vastly improved.

RIP your quotes

[beach tribe]

things go extremely well, we could be top 10 in terms of rushing yards and attempts

but

top 10 overall in points or total yards? very doubtful

Dude.
A TON of running attempts are about to become short passing plays.
I put Charles at 65 catches, easy.
I think our O is going to be built in the image of the 2004 eagles.
D Bowe being TO
And Charles being Westbrook....on steroids.
As soon as someone gives me the Decade old offense BS,
I would suggest they look at the #s.

[ChiefGator]

Holy shit!

When did we get a top 10 QB?

In the last two years he has been, according to his QBR, and according to his wins.

2012
QBR 90.7, which places him ninth between Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger

2013
QBR 104.1, which places him at #3 on the list, between Manning and Griffin.

You want him to be a failure so badly, that you aren't willing to look at the facts right in front of you.

[Cannibal]

Here's to hoping Bowe can explode this year. I agree with the Bowe/TO comparison in this offense.

[Cannibal]

Bows also excels at taking short passes for extra yards.

[Rausch]

I'm sure Reid will be able to manufacture some points but top 10? That's a tall order...

Keep in mind that we some piss poor defenses this year...

[Halfcan]

THIS X 3 /per game would do it :p
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1207447/charles.gif

:clap: This run shows his speed as he burns Everyone to the endzone.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

You'd have to be on crack to say there are 20 more defenses with more talent than the Chiefs.

[loochy]

You'd have to be on crack to say there are 20 more defenses with more talent than the Chiefs.

talent != a good defense

[Chris Meck]

Dude.
A TON of running attempts are about to become short passing plays.
I put Charles at 65 catches, easy.
I think our O is going to be built in the image of the 2004 eagles.
D Bowe being TO
And Charles being Westbrook....on steroids.
As soon as someone gives me the Decade old offense BS,
I would suggest they look at the #s.

This. I love how so many posters here think Andy Reid is going to run a Herm Edwards offense. Not gonna happen.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

We are finally breaking away from RRPP and BBDB. We should all be excited. Scheme changes can make a HUGE difference.

[Sandy Vagina]

Top 10 in offensive efficiency DVOA can and likely will happen. :rockon:

[Ace Gunner]

We are finally breaking away from RRPP and BBDB. We should all be excited. Scheme changes can make a HUGE difference.

play calling too:p

[Ace Gunner]

Holy shit!

When did we get a top 10 QB?

:spock:when Alex Smith got paired with Jamaal Charles & DBowe

[ptlyon]

Holy shit - let me get Zack Cook on the line

[Chiefs=Champions]

Only if we find a 2nd and 3rd wr, a te and most importantly alex plays at a higher level then hes shown so far..

[milkman]

Maybe is Charles has 2000 Yards.

No way in hell do I want to see Charles get the number of carries it would require to gain 2000 yards.

In Reid's offense, he won't.

He will have a chance, however, to approach 2500 total yards in carries and recetions.

This offense will really elevate Charles in the national spotlight.

[loochy]

No way in hell do I want to see Charles get the number of carries it would require to gain 2000 yards.

In Reid's offense, he won't.

He will have a chance, however, to approach 2500 total yards in carries and recetions.

This offense will really elevate Charles in the national spotlight.

jamaal charles needs more carries?

[milkman]

I can easily name 20 better defenses than I can 20 better offenses in terms of talent.

any defense with a good DL or 2 good CBs/Safeties is automatically better than us alone.

I don't agree with the idea that there are 20 defenses with more talent, but you are right that this defense will only be as good as the D-line is.

[Ace Gunner]

outside of Devito, the DL on this team can at least motor well enough to sack a QB. The question is, are they technically equipped to muster a pass rush.

They have TJ/Poe/Powe & perhaps Bailey. Can that group generate pressures with Hali & Houston? Yes, I think they will be able to pressure QB's this season with some consistency. Sacks? 10 would be tops from that group this season, but if they can put that together with pressure and DJ can stay home/focused/unblocked this defense will be a force.

To me, the biggest question is DJ -- which DJ do we get this season? Because in a 1 gap aggressive defense, the ILB's need to be able shed blocks and stay put or we will see teams run the ball on this scheme. Once you get running the rock on a defense, you get them on their heels & the DC stops sending the pass rush.

[MagicHef]

I look forward to bumping this thread in 2-6 months.

[ptlyon]

I look forward to bumping this thread in 2-6 months.

Not if I beat you to it :evil:

[tooge]

I can see us having a top 10 rushing offense, but being around 20 in passing. Just not enough passing weapons. I hope I'm wrong.

[crossbow]

THIS X 3 /per game would do it :p
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1207447/charles.gif

His acceleration is just sick. Like a dragster off of the line.

[mikey23545]

I look forward to bumping this thread in 2-6 months.

That should be around the time you find out how much longer Peyton has to wear that halo thing.

[BlackHelicopters]

I can see us having a top 10 rushing offense, but being around 20 in passing. Just not enough passing weapons. I hope I'm wrong.

Baldwin is a massive tool, uh weapon.

[-King-]

I can see us having a top 10 rushing offense, but being around 20 in passing. Just not enough passing weapons. I hope I'm wrong.

In Reids offense, we have good enough passing weapons. He uses his RBs as a passing weapon and is pretty good at it too. Jamaal Charles is the best RB he's had to work with and that's saying a lot.

[-King-]

I can easily name 20 better defenses than I can 20 better offenses in terms of talent.

any defense with a good DL or 2 good CBs/Safeties is automatically better than us alone.

Still waiting.

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lmury6Y5jc1qbjcuj.gif

[Tombstone RJ]

Dude.
A TON of running attempts are about to become short passing plays.
I put Charles at 65 catches, easy.
I think our O is going to be built in the image of the 2004 eagles.
D Bowe being TO
And Charles being Westbrook....on steroids.
As soon as someone gives me the Decade old offense BS,
I would suggest they look at the #s.

This but without McNabb stretching the field. In other words, Alex Smith and Donovan McNabb are pretty much polar opposites when it comes to QBing. McNabb had the strongest arm in the NFL and Reid used that arm. McNabb was mobil too and could escape pressure. Alex Smith is not particularly mobile and he has a pedestrian arm at best. Sooo, this begs the question, will this offense work? Or, will Reid change it to fit Alex Smith's strengths?

[SAUTO]

Mcnabb most definitely did not have the strongest arm in the NFL.

Just sayin
Posted via Mobile Device

[CoMoChief]

I also don't think McNabb was really running a whole lot at that point in his career because then he developed more of a pocket passer. He could run, but didn't, at least no more than Alex Smith probably will this season. He only had 220 yds rushing that entire season avg almost 15 yds/gm. Hell any QB does that just by scrambling out of the pocket on broken plays throughout a 4 qtrs of play.

McNabb had a strong arm, but it wasn't the strongest, TO made Donovan go from good to great that season.

[Saccopoo]

And Alex Smith is a lot more mobile and athletic than people seem to realize. 4.7 40 at the combine and was very successful at Utah running the Meyer spread system which utilizes a lot of QB running options.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/E3szXpKYCVo?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[RunKC]

This but without McNabb stretching the field. In other words, Alex Smith and Donovan McNabb are pretty much polar opposites when it comes to QBing. McNabb had the strongest arm in the NFL and Reid used that arm. McNabb was mobil too and could escape pressure. Alex Smith is not particularly mobile and he has a pedestrian arm at best. Sooo, this begs the question, will this offense work? Or, will Reid change it to fit Alex Smith's strengths?

You're probably going to see a shit ton of 10-15 yard passes to the TE, too.

I think it will be a mix of the 2004 Eagles and 2012 Steelers. People hate "dink and dunk" offenses, but I'll take it. Big Ben did that last year and had his 2nd best year as a pro statistically.

Reid did say we'll be blowing the top off of defense's which is what will interest everyone. Alex Smith isn't terrible at throwing downfield. He's not great either. He's basically average.

[RunKC]

Mcnabb most definitely did not have the strongest arm in the NFL.

Just sayin
Posted via Mobile Device

Pretty sure that honor belonged to Brett Favre at the time.

[DTLB58]

In Reids offense, we have good enough passing weapons. He uses his RBs as a passing weapon and is pretty good at it too. Jamaal Charles is the best RB he's had to work with and that's saying a lot.

We have the rec RB's, maybe enough TE's we will see. We need more WR's. Unless Baldwin and Avery bust out. I definitely see us drafting WR's as a priority next season.

[O.city]

You're probably going to see a shit ton of 10-15 yard passes to the TE, too.

I think it will be a mix of the 2004 Eagles and 2012 Steelers. People hate "dink and dunk" offenses, but I'll take it. Big Ben did that last year and had his 2nd best year as a pro statistically.

Reid did say we'll be blowing the top off of defense's which is what will interest everyone. Alex Smith isn't terrible at throwing downfield. He's not great either. He's basically average.

There isn't any problem with dink and dunk at all, most effective aerial offenses are in the 5 to 20 yard zone. But he's going to have to effectively throw it down the field to keep teams honest.

We're so scarred on dink and dunk because Cassel was so awful at it, but with an effective accurate qb and good route running receiving players, they're highly effective.


I'm curious/excited to see the offense this year. It's been a while since we've seen good qb play.

And on the defense, I think the talent is there to be top10 same with the offense but it will take time in the new schemes before they get there

[Tombstone RJ]

Mcnabb most definitely did not have the strongest arm in the NFL.

Just sayin
Posted via Mobile Device

he had a friggen cannon compared to Captain check-down....

[O.city]

Mcnabb always struggled with accuracy. He wasn't a great fit in the wco early in his career because of it

[Tombstone RJ]

Mcnabb always struggled with accuracy. He wasn't a great fit in the wco early in his career because of it

that's interesting, I'm sure Any Reid would love to hear more about this...

[MagicHef]

Mcnabb always struggled with accuracy. He wasn't a great fit in the wco early in his career because of it

McNabb career completion percentage: 59%
Smith career completion percentage: 59%

[Hammock Parties]

As usual, I have to enter these discussions to inject a modicum of sense into them.

Top 10 offenses last year, and the yards they threw for:

New England - 4827
New Orleans - 5177
Detroit - 4967
Denver - 4659
Washington - 3200
Dallas - 4903
Houston - 4008
Atlanta - 4719
Tampa Bay - 4065
Indianapolis - 4374

So, unless you think Alex Smith is going to run around for 800 yards like Bob Griffin, chances are...we won't have a top 10 offense, because he isn't throwing for over 4,000 yards. Period.

[O.city]

I don't think that's necessarily indicative to how accurate Smith is in the short to intermediate zones as he's shown in the past 2 years, but it also shows that McCann wasn't a highly accurate Qb who excelled in Reid's system.

In the end though, it seems to show that Redi does a good job matching his QB to his strengths I guess

[O.city]

Smith will definitely have the chances to hit the 4000 yard mark, in an Andy Reid offense that is.

So, I guess if you don't like Alex Smith, thats your best hope, because there will be no "Cassel 2010" in this offense, if Reid runs it the way he always has (which I think he will, as I don't think coaches really "change"). I like the pistol stuff zilla and Sorter have talked about as it seems to fit Smith's strengths pretty well.

So there will probably be no sink or swim for the guy this year. If Reid is going to ask a 3rd round (IIRC) rookie QB chuck it that many times, you better believe his hand picked QB is gonna likely toss it around.

[MagicHef]

I don't think that's necessarily indicative to how accurate Smith is in the short to intermediate zones as he's shown in the past 2 years, but it also shows that McCann wasn't a highly accurate Qb who excelled in Reid's system.

In the end though, it seems to show that Redi does a good job matching his QB to his strengths I guess

It doesn't show how Smith is accurate, but it does show how McNabb is inaccurate?

OK.

[FringeNC]

If we have a top 10 offense, Andy Reid has to be coach of the year.

[O.city]

It doesn't show how Smith is accurate, but it does show how McNabb is inaccurate?

OK.

I think some of it is skewed in what we saw Smith have his first how ever many years in the league.

If you wanna go on recent trends, we know or the trends show, that he's likely a more accurate Qb than that.


Thats what I was trying to get at, didn't do a very good job of it though.

[Hammock Parties]

Smith will definitely have the chances to hit the 4000 yard mark, in an Andy Reid offense that is.

We would need to throw the ball 35 times a game, because he doesn't throw the ball down the field.

I just don't see that happening.

[O.city]

Speaking of offenses, I thought this would bring up some talk to here goes.

Read on some blog site today about how the RT spot is coming more and more important in todays NFL in that teams are starting to bring more pressure from the arm side in an attempt to

A.) force the Qb to roll away from his strength hand, which is harder to throw with accuracy and velocity and

B.) it allows you to, if you get to the QB, have more access to his arm and keep him from being able to get a throw away ball out of his hand. Teams facing the Steelers like to do it against Ben because he's so big and hard to bring down.

Makes sense.

[O.city]

We would need to throw the ball 35 times a game, because he doesn't throw the ball down the field.

I just don't see that happening.

If you look at the averages his QB's have thrown it in the past, I'd say it's a possibility.


I know it's a waste of breath, but if you watched Harbaugh's system at Stanford with Luck, it was pretty similar/nearly identical to the one he ran in SF.

I don't think we will ever confuse Alex Smith with Flacco etc in terms of arm strength, but I think in terms of Reid's system he's ran, he has the ability to excel.

[MagicHef]

I think some of it is skewed in what we saw Smith have his first how ever many years in the league.

If you wanna go on recent trends, we know or the trends show, that he's likely a more accurate Qb than that.


Thats what I was trying to get at, didn't do a very good job of it though.

It depends on what you attribute his recent improvement in accuracy to. It's either his maturation, or Harbaugh's handcuffing of him. I know what I think it is. Either way, ignoring 5 years to focus on 2 doesn't make a ton of sense.

[O.city]

It depends on what you attribute his recent improvement in accuracy to. It's either his maturation, or Harbaugh's handcuffing of him. I know what I think it is. Either way, ignoring 5 years to focus on 2 doesn't make a ton of sense.

Obviously, you're a Bronco fan. We know what you attribute it too.

While the first 5 years are there and do mean somethings, we'll see if recent trends are more of an indication. I think alot of that is that Smith just got into a system that obviously reigned him in and gave him much more structure. It appeared as though the more games and time under his belt he got, he gained confidence and started opening up more.

But, I don't think we're kidding ourselves into thinking Smith is some transcendent skilled Qb who would excel in any system like a Manning or Brady.

He's probably somewhere in the 8-14 range in the NFL in a big group of guys who have to match up system and skill in order to be successful. I think once you get past Manning, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, you have a whole group of guys who if you put in a WCO offense would struggle (Flacco) or a Corryell type system would struggle (Alex Smith).

Obviously with what they gave up, Andy Reid thinks Smith matches up with his system pretty well. Depending how they structure it, sure, I'd say he does.

But like I said, lets not kid our selves into thinking he's something he's not.

[O.city]

It depends on what you attribute his recent improvement in accuracy to. It's either his maturation, or Harbaugh's handcuffing of him. I know what I think it is. Either way, ignoring 5 years to focus on 2 doesn't make a ton of sense.

I also don't think that in terms of accuracy, you can improve that much. It's a biomechanics thing.

DJ has a great analogy for it. If you're a B-, you can improve your timing, footwork, etc and get to a B, maybe a B+, but you're never going to be an A, unless you go full overhaul, and even then, meh, thats tough.


So I don't think he really changed his accuracy per se, but just the structure around him, something he will also have here.

[Hammock Parties]

He's probably somewhere in the 8-14 range in the NFL

Why do people keep saying this?

He's below average in terms of yards per completion, yards per game, TD passes, third down conversions...all the most important parts of being a QB.

The guy is in no way in the top half of the league.

[KCrockaholic]

What was the Alex Smith stats projected over a full 16 games in 2012? I saw it somewhere. Was actually a glimmer of hope.

Edit: Meant Alex Smith stats had he played in Philly offense in 2012 with the 615 attempts.

[Hammock Parties]

The whole reason Alex had any success at all with the 49ers was because they hid him behind a dominant OL, running game and defense.

Exposing him by asking him to throw 35 times a game should work!

[RunKC]

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

[RunKC]

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

[O.city]

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

How long have you been here? Don't you knwo those don't count?

[RunKC]

And why the hell does it matter if Alex Smith throws 4,000 yards and 30 TD's a year?

You do know McNabb never threw for 4,000 yards and only made it to 25 TD's or more twice in his 11 years in Philly right?

[O.city]

NFL is different than it was in McNabb's day. People throw the ball around. Spread concepts taking over.


Although I do think there is something coming down the pipe in regards to going big and running over these smaller LB's.

[Hammock Parties]

And why the hell does it matter if Alex Smith throws 4,000 yards and 30 TD's a year?


That's most likely what we need to win a Super Bowl.

[KCrockaholic]

NFL is different than it was in McNabb's day. People throw the ball around. Spread concepts taking over.


Although I do think there is something coming down the pipe in regards to going big and running over these smaller LB's.

Runningbacks will only be getting smaller/quicker now with the crown of the helmet rule. The truckstick is out.

[O.city]

Runningbacks will only be getting smaller/quicker now with the crown of the helmet rule. The truckstick is out.

I just don't see how that's enforced. It'll be like the PI call and will be overcalled for a while.


I think teams start going with heavy packages against this smaller faster LB's and light in the pants DL.

[KCrockaholic]

I just don't see how that's enforced. It'll be like the PI call and will be overcalled for a while.


I think teams start going with heavy packages against this smaller faster LB's and light in the pants DL.

We'll have to see how often it's called this year. It's a ridiculous rule, but we shouldn't have to worry about Jamaal getting into any trouble at least for the sake of our team.

[MagicHef]

What was the Alex Smith stats projected over a full 16 games in 2012? I saw it somewhere. Was actually a glimmer of hope.

Edit: Meant Alex Smith stats had he played in Philly offense in 2012 with the 615 attempts.

This?

I did a linear regression between pass attempts per game and various stats per attempt for Alex. Someone mentioned that Reid typically called 35 passes per game, so I based it on that number.

If you base it on his entire career, you could expect:

3661 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 1 Fumble, and 24 Sacks.

I think Chiefs fans would be very happy with that. However, it is kind of skewed by a horrible rookie season with very few attempts. If you limit it to the last 4 seasons to cover his career after his injury, you get:

3498 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs, 5 Fumbles, and 32 Sacks.

That seems pretty realistic.

[KCrockaholic]

This?

Nah I just found it. Had Smith thrown the ball 616 times in 2012 like Philly did, his numbers would've come out to be 37TDs 14INTS and over 4,800 yards.

We won't be throwing the ball 616 times, so I'm not expecting anything crazy, but I think 25 TD's are something that's possible if we do infact throw a bit more.

[MagicHef]

Nah I just found it. Had Smith thrown the ball 616 times in 2012 like Philly did, his numbers would've come out to be 37TDs 14INTS and over 4,800 yards.

We won't be throwing the ball 616 times, so I'm not expecting anything crazy, but I think 25 TD's are something that's possible if we do infact throw a bit more.

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

[Hammock Parties]

If you could simply multiply stats, why not throw every down! Yipee!!

[-King-]

Its still kind of surreal that Andy Reid is our head coach. Feels good man.

[KCrockaholic]

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

I agree, it doesn't tell the full story. But it gives people something to think about. He was on pace to finally throw more than 18 TD's in 2012 before he was yanked. But SF coddled him and didn't seem to usually let him throw more than 25 times a game. Had he had a full season at the rate he was going he still likely would've put up about 25 TD's.

[KCrockaholic]

Its still kind of surreal that Andy Reid is our head coach. Feels good man.

This is still real life because Alex Smith ended up as our QB.

[Sorter]

I just don't see how that's enforced. It'll be like the PI call and will be overcalled for a while.


I think teams start going with heavy packages against this smaller faster LB's and light in the pants DL.

Personnel is definitely going to vary and be creative with different alignments both offensively and defensively over tye next fee years.

[DTLB58]

If we have a top 10 offense, Andy Reid has to be coach of the year.

Again, Top 10 offense could be measured by yards which could = 50 fG's from inside the 20.

We need to score TD's. Don't get wrapped up in anything but scoring, preferably TD's over FG's.

Plus, remember the Chargers have had a year(s) where they finished first on O and maybe even D and still didn't make the post season. Hold your horses on "Has to be".

[DTLB58]

I think some of it is skewed in what we saw Smith have his first how ever many years in the league.

If you wanna go on recent trends, we know or the trends show, that he's likely a more accurate Qb than that.


Thats what I was trying to get at, didn't do a very good job of it though.

And what if....Harbaugh would have been his HC with this same OC Smith's entire career to this point?

[DTLB58]

It depends on what you attribute his recent improvement in accuracy to. It's either his maturation, or Harbaugh's handcuffing of him. I know what I think it is. Either way, ignoring 5 years to focus on 2 doesn't make a ton of sense.

Sure it can.

Coaching, surrounding talent, team chemistry and stability. All of that comes under a good new foundation and giving him confidence.
What do you think he would have been like these last two season with Haley screaming at him instead of Harbaugh building him up?

[DTLB58]

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

Points. I don't care if he throws for 2,3 or 4,000 yards we must score TD's.

This team was atrocious last season in doing that.

[DTLB58]

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

22/17 is unacceptable.

[BigMeatballDave]

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

I feel pretty confident calling you a dipshit.

[BossChief]

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

What I did to get those numbers was take Alex Smiths average per attempt from 2012 as well as his average amount of attempts per touchdown and multiply them by the number of attempts Andy Reids quarterbacks had last year.

Mathematically speaking, that's the best way to figure his hopeful production.

[Hammock Parties]

I feel pretty confident calling you a dipshit.

Lil Chiefy doesn't like objective analysis, eh?

ALEX SMITH IS TEH AWESUM!!!

[BossChief]

And what if....Harbaugh would have been his HC with this same OC Smith's entire career to this point?

One of the first things Harbaugh did was trade up to draft Alex Smiths replacement.

If Alex can't handle the additional responsibility, I hope we do the same.

[Coogs]

Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs.

That not really true over the last 25-30 games... minus one game against the Giants where he threw 0 TD's and 3 INT's.

Over those games, his TD/INT ratio was 3/1. In games where he threw 35 times... give or take a couple... his threw 11 TD's and 7 INT's. Throw out that one game and it is 11 TD's and 4 INT's. Same ratio as before.

[Coogs]

As to the original question. I think if we follow the Houston Texans version of the WCO, that a top 10 offense is within reach. Here are their stats from last season...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/htx/2012.htm

It seems to me if we are built very similar to the Texans, and even though Reid's version of the WCO is different than the Texans, this seems like a good model to adjust our system to.

[Hammock Parties]

Sadly Alex Smith isn't even in Matt Schaub's class.

[Coogs]

Sadly Alex Smith isn't even in Matt Schaub's class.

I may agree with you at some point... but not until he actually plays a season here.

[MagicHef]

What I did to get those numbers was take Alex Smiths average per attempt from 2012 as well as his average amount of attempts per touchdown and multiply them by the number of attempts Andy Reids quarterbacks had last year.

Mathematically speaking, that's the best way to figure his hopeful production.

No, it really isn't.

[BossChief]

Alex Smiths last two seasons...

663 attempts
4881 yards
30tds
10ints

Andy Reids Eagles threw the ball 616 times last year.

I win, hef.

[chiefzilla1501]

Speaking of offenses, I thought this would bring up some talk to here goes.

Read on some blog site today about how the RT spot is coming more and more important in todays NFL in that teams are starting to bring more pressure from the arm side in an attempt to

A.) force the Qb to roll away from his strength hand, which is harder to throw with accuracy and velocity and

B.) it allows you to, if you get to the QB, have more access to his arm and keep him from being able to get a throw away ball out of his hand. Teams facing the Steelers like to do it against Ben because he's so big and hard to bring down.

Makes sense.

Good point. It's probably also because the emergence of the Pistol allows for teams to run a power blocking scheme. ZBS is probably not going to be as en vogue as it used to be. I'm not crazy about taking a RT at #1, but it's not like the Chiefs are the only team doing something like this.

[chiefzilla1501]

McNabb career completion percentage: 59%
Smith career completion percentage: 59%

McNabb could often get the ball to his target. But he definitely wasn't an accurate passer. He had a tendency to throw a flutter ball and into the receiver's feet versus in the chest. Reason his completion % was higher was because he used his legs to get his receiver's so open that he didn't have to be pinpoint accurate.

[BigMeatballDave]

Lil Chiefy doesn't like objective analysis, eh?

ALEX SMITH IS TEH AWESUM!!!

I challenge you to find a post of me speaking highly of Alex.

Other than him being an improvement over Cassel, I'm in wait and see mode.

Hypocrite.

[BossChief]

A scary fact of the last two years of Alex Smith...He took 68 sacks over that time period.

[MagicHef]

Alex Smiths last two seasons...

663 attempts
4881 yards
30tds
10ints

Andy Reids Eagles threw the ball 616 times last year.

I win, hef.

That only makes sense if they let Smith play in 26 games next season. Smith plays worse when he has more attempts PER GAME.

[whoman69]

Too much credit being given to Andy Reid, not enough to the fact Alex Smith is the QB leading that offense. Last three seasons with Smith at the helm they finished 26th, 24th, 27th in yardage. The highest an Alex Smith team has finished is 23rd. They do a bit better on points having finished 11th, 24th and 18th.

[BossChief]

That only makes sense if they let Smith play in 26 games next season. Smith plays worse when he has more attempts PER GAME.

We will find out soon enough. I don't think the old dog is gonna try to learn any new trucks anytime soon.

[BigMeatballDave]

That only makes sense if they let Smith play in 26 games next season. Smith plays worse when he has more attempts PER GAME.

Don't you have a decrepit, play off choking QB to worry about?

[KCrockaholic]

http://chiefconcerns.com/bombs-away-alex-smith-is-ready-to-unleash-the-deep-ball/

Helped with the article. Thanks brahs.

[RunKC]

That's most likely what we need to win a Super Bowl.

Joe Flacco has never thrown 30 TD's or 4k yards either.

[Hammock Parties]

Joe Flacco has never thrown 30 TD's or 4k yards either.

Don't care. He can actually chuck the ball down the field with some kind of ability.

Since Alex can't, he will probably need to make up for it with lots and lots of short completions. Like, 350 of them.

[Coogs]

That only makes sense if they let Smith play in 26 games next season. Smith plays worse when he has more attempts PER GAME.

Not true over the last 28 games. Look it up.

[Rausch]

Don't care. He can actually chuck the ball down the field with some kind of ability.

Since Alex can't, he will probably need to make up for it with lots and lots of short completions. Like, 350 of them.

Alex can he's just afraid...

[Tombstone RJ]

http://chiefconcerns.com/bombs-away-alex-smith-is-ready-to-unleash-the-deep-ball/

Helped with the article. Thanks brahs.

fluffly piece is fluffy. :rolleyes:

[KCrockaholic]

fluffly piece is fluffy. :rolleyes:

lol. I write for Chief Concerns... We're a happy homer bunch.

[Rausch]

lol. I write for Chief Concerns... We're a happy homer bunch.

God bless you...

[BigMeatballDave]

lol. I write for Chief Concerns... We're a happy homer bunch.

Donkey homerism is the only sanctioned homerism on ChiefsPlanet.

[mcaj22]

A scary fact of the last two years of Alex Smith...He took 68 sacks over that time period.

cause he holds onto the ball too long and will take the sack rather than throwing into a tight window for a potential interception.

the anti-gun slinger

[SAUTO]

he had a friggen cannon compared to Captain check-down....

So...

CCD wasn't the only qb in the league
Posted via Mobile Device

[BossChief]

cause he holds onto the ball too long and will take the sack rather than throwing into a tight window for a potential interception.

the anti-gun slinger

No question you are right...even Andy Reid acknowledges that by "prodding him to be more agressive"

If he can somehow get Alex to maintain his effectiveness in the short and intermediate zones while helping him become more confident in his ability to stretch the field, this offense has a chance to be really fucking good.

Trouble with that is, it's a sink or swim deal.

Alex is gonna step up into the next class of QBs in this league, or be replaced...I don't believe for a second that Andy traded that much only to continue to allow Alex to play extremely limited football.

[Tombstone RJ]

So...

CCD wasn't the only qb in the league
Posted via Mobile Device

McNabb had a strong arm, and if you google that you will find it to be true that he had a strong arm. Contrast that with Alex Smith who is known for his weak arm and my point stands. Who is CCD?

[Baby Lee]

McNabb had a strong arm, and if you google that you will find it to be true that he had a strong arm. Contrast that with Alex Smith who is known for his weak arm and my point stands. Who is CCD?

You told him who. Reading comprehension much. Go back and re-read the post.

http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showpost.php?p=9792474&postcount=186

[SAUTO]

McNabb had a strong arm, and if you google that you will find it to be true that he had a strong arm. Contrast that with Alex Smith who is known for his weak arm and my point stands. Who is CCD?

I don't need google to tell me Mcnabb had a strong arm.


Never said otherwise, just that he didn't have the "strongest arm in the league" which is exactly what you said.
Posted via Mobile Device

[MagicHef]

Not true over the last 28 games. Look it up.

I did look it up. It's still true. Using only Alex's last 28 games, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TDs per attempt all go down with more attempts, while his interceptions per attempt go up.

I reran my analysis using only his last 2 years (plus playoffs), but rather than using 35 passes per game, I used the number of passes Reid called each game in 2012. So, week one was 56 attempts, week 2 was 32, etc. Again, this is based on only the last 2 years. This is the absolute best of Alex Smith.

50.8 % completion rate
4084 yards
21 TDs
12 INTs

Not horrible, but really not good at all, either.

[Coogs]

I did look it up. It's still true. Using only Alex's last 28 games, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TDs per attempt all go down with more attempts, while his interceptions per attempt go up.

I reran my analysis using only his last 2 years (plus playoffs), but rather than using 35 passes per game, I used the number of passes Reid called each game in 2012. So, week one was 56 attempts, week 2 was 32, etc. Again, this is based on only the last 2 years. This is the absolute best of Alex Smith.

50.8 % completion rate
4084 yards
21 TDs
12 INTs

Not horrible, but really not good at all, either.

We are going to have to agree to disagree. Some stats are a little better... some a little worse... with different games. Several outlier games like the Giants game I mentioned to skew the stats. All-in-all, I don't see the much worse QB you refer too when passing attempts go up on paper. We will see when the games start.

[MagicHef]

We are going to have to agree to disagree. Some stats are a little better... some a little worse... with different games. Several outlier games like the Giants game I mentioned to skew the stats. All-in-all, I don't see the much worse QB you refer too when passing attempts go up on paper. We will see when the games start.

So you'd be happy with those stats? Here are his stats considering his entire career and Reid's 2012 playcalling:

55.5%
3714 yards
20 TDs
19 INTs

[Sandy Vagina]

So you'd be happy with those stats? Here are his stats considering his entire career and Reid's 2012 playcalling:

55.5%
3714 yards
20 TDs
19 INTs

SF's offensive history has for many years now suggested that any time we were forced to abandon our gameplan and throw the ball that much? We were usually in a lot of trouble and had to force things.

Take most (any) teams away from their SOP? and I imagine the results would not be ideal or pretty.

[Coogs]

So you'd be happy with those stats? Here are his stats considering his entire career and Reid's 2012 playcalling:

55.5%
3714 yards
20 TDs
19 INTs

I'll wait until I actually see Smith and Reid matched together. My expectations (not basing it off of his entire career) for your 4 categories would be higher, close, ballpark, lower. But again, that is JMO.

[BossChief]

Alex Smith has been a 65% passer the last two years and hef inputs his math and all of a sudden Alex is barely a 50% passer.

Haha

[Coogs]

Alex Smith has been a 65% passer the last two years and hef inputs his math and all of a sudden Alex is barely a 50% passer.

Haha

Exactly!

[BossChief]

In 2012, Alex had 3 games where he attempted 30+ passes.
He completed 65%, 69% and 63% comp%.

In 2011, he had 8 games with 30+ attempts.

67
64
53
63
53
49
58
67

So, out of 11 games the last season and a half with 30+ attempts, he has only had 4 with less than 60% completions and somehow hef figures it at barely 50%.

That's some donkey math

[MagicHef]

In 2012, Alex had 3 games where he attempted 30+ passes.
He completed 65%, 69% and 63% comp%.

In 2011, he had 8 games with 30+ attempts.

67
64
53
63
53
49
58
67

So, out of 11 games the last season and a half with 30+ attempts, he has only had 4 with less than 60% completions and somehow hef figures it at barely 50%.

That's some donkey math

Here's his completion percentage vs attempts for the last 2 years. Tell me what happens when Reid asks him to throw 56 times.

http://s23.postimg.org/9uoj2vvuj/scp.png

[Coogs]

In 2012, Alex had 3 games where he attempted 30+ passes.
He completed 65%, 69% and 63% comp%.

In 2011, he had 8 games with 30+ attempts.

67
64
53
63
53
49
58
67

So, out of 11 games the last season and a half with 30+ attempts, he has only had 4 with less than 60% completions and somehow hef figures it at barely 50%.

That's some donkey math

He said he was using his whole career. That in itself makes no sense, and Smith appears to have turned things around the last couple of years. Pretty much right at the point in their careers most of the resident QB guru's say is the make or break point for young QB's.

[Coogs]

Here's his completion percentage vs attempts for the last 2 years. Tell me what happens when Reid asks him to throw 56 times.

http://s23.postimg.org/9uoj2vvuj/scp.png

One could argue your placement of the line of best fit. After you get past the 1-1, 7-8, and 18-19 games you are using as your starting point... there is no real correlation for a line of best fit unless you run it straight back and forth through the low to mid 60's.

[MagicHef]

One could argue your placement of the line of best fit. After you get past the 1-1, 7-8, and 18-19 games you are using as your starting point... there is no real correlation fro a line of best fit unless you run it straight back and forth through the mid 60's.

It's least squares. Mathematically, it is the best fit for this set of data.

[Coogs]

It's least squares. Mathematically, it is the best fit for this set of data.

:shrug:

With the 1-1 and 7-8 games being thrown in, yes. But the 1-1 game he didn't start, and the 7-8 game was when he went out early with the concussion against the Rams. Kind of skews the data set.

[Mav]

Just gonna throw this out there. Having Greg Roman as his play caller, and Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, revealed who Alex Smith has the potential to be. Having Andy Reid is not going to hurt that. He threw 70 percent last year, hes not going to hit that, he will be asked to take more chances, hes not going to dip below, 63 percent completions though. Hes too smart with the ball for that, and if he relies on the short check downs to Charles, then well, that percentage could stay high. And don't give me this check down bullshit. Yes, its a shame to get the ball to Jamaal fricking Charles in space. What a stupid Idea that is......

[KCrockaholic]

Just gonna throw this out there. Having Greg Roman as his play caller, and Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, revealed who Alex Smith has the potential to be. Having Andy Reid is not going to hurt that. He threw 70 percent last year, hes not going to hit that, he will be asked to take more chances, hes not going to dip below, 63 percent completions though. Hes too smart with the ball for that, and if he relies on the short check downs to Charles, then well, that percentage could stay high. And don't give me this check down bullshit. Yes, its a shame to get the ball to Jamaal fricking Charles in space. What a stupid Idea that is......

I'm just excited to see Jamaal catching the ball more often this year. We could be killing teams with the screen pass this year. I have no idea why the screen was so rarely used with Jamaal.

[MagicHef]

:shrug:

With the 1-1 and 7-8 games being thrown in, yes. But the 1-1 game he didn't start, and the 7-8 game was when he went out early with the concussion against the Rams. Kind of skews the data set.

Fair point. Taking out those 2 games increases it from 50.8% to 54%.

[BossChief]

There are only 2 games where he completed less than 50% of his passes and only 9 where he completed less than 60%. 16 where he was above 60% and 8 above 70%.

Your 50-54% stuff is pure donk nonsense.

[beach tribe]

I got a neutral rep from knowmo going off about how Charles is no Westbrook.

Well, he's right.

Charles has infinitely more potential.
He is a Home Run threat every time he touches the
ball.
And he's about to get it........in space.........a lot.

[Coogs]

Fair point. Taking out those 2 games increases it from 50.8% to 54%.

Now throw out your outlier game of 18-19. Then re run your line of best fit and see what you get? Repost your line of best fit without those three games. I'm interested to see the result.

[beach tribe]

I'm just excited to see Jamaal catching the ball more often this year. We could be killing teams with the screen pass this year. I have no idea why the screen was so rarely used with Jamaal.

It's because our awesome staff was able utilize our players strengths and weaknesses and recognized early on that he would struggle with it.

[BossChief]

I'd also like to point out that JHs offense isnt very similar to what Reid runs.

JHs offense has a lot of designed runs and play action. Reid is a lot more WCO where those designed runs are turned into swing passes, screens and dump offs.

I expect Alexs % to hover around 65% on the year while his ypa drops about a half yard.

550-575 passes
65%
7.6 ypa
2:1+ td:int ratio

[Coogs]

I'd also like to point out that JHs offense isnt very similar to what Reid runs.

JHs offense has a lot of designed runs and play action. Reid is a lot more WCO where those designed runs are turned into swing passes, screens and dump offs.

I expect Alexs % to hover around 65% on the year while his ypa drops about a half yard.

550-575 passes
65%
7.6 ypa
2:1+ td:int ratio

I'll go with that, except I expect the TD:INT ratio to be 2+:1 instead of 2:1+

[BossChief]

I'll go with that, except I expect the TD:INT ratio to be 2+:1 instead of 2:1+

That's actually what I meant by that.

[MagicHef]

Now throw out your outlier game of 18-19. Then re run your line of best fit and see what you get? Repost your line of best fit without those three games. I'm interested to see the result.

56% now

http://s8.postimg.org/yeqmz6cg5/scp.png

[MagicHef]

There are only 2 games where he completed less than 50% of his passes and only 9 where he completed less than 60%. 16 where he was above 60% and 8 above 70%.

Your 50-54% stuff is pure donk nonsense.

He also has zero games above 57% where he threw more than 35 times.

[BossChief]

He also has zero games above 57% where he threw more than 35 times.

I don't like Alex Smith, but I would be willing to bet that changes this year.

Care to make a wager?

[Baby Lee]

He also has zero games above 57% where he threw more than 35 times.

Those three games?

[Garcia Bronco]

Chiefs game will be more chess match than it ever has in the past half decade. I think it's possible as well. Definitely top 15.

[Coogs]

That's actually what I meant by that.

:thumb:

[MagicHef]

I don't like Alex Smith, but I would be willing to bet that changes this year.

Care to make a wager?

I'm open to bets, but that one seems a bit odd.

Those three games?

Yes

[BossChief]

Chiefs game will be more chess match than it ever has in the past half decade. I think it's possible as well. Definitely top 15.

I think the expectation level should be an average offense. 10-20 range.

[Coogs]

56% now

http://s8.postimg.org/yeqmz6cg5/scp.png

Still think your line is a little steep in the negative direction. Not saying the slope should be positive, but definitely flatter. In fact the points are almost scattered enough where there is no real correlation... and if there was one it still should be horizontal through the low to mid 60's.

[MagicHef]

Still think your line is a little steep in the negative direction. Not saying the slope should be positive, but definitely flatter. In fact the points are almost scattered enough where there is no real correlation... and if there was one it still should be horizontal through the low to mid 60's.

You understand that I'm not choosing the line, right? That line is the best mathematical fit, determined by the smallest cumulative area formed by squares made between each point and the nearest point on the line. If we changed the line, the cumulative area of the squares would grow, indicating a poorer fit.

[ptlyon]

You understand that I'm not choosing the line, right? That line is the best mathematical fit, determined by the smallest cumulative area formed by squares made between each point and the nearest point on the line. If we changed the line, the cumulative area of the squares would grow, indicating a poorer fit.

If it don't fit, you must acquit

[Coogs]

You understand that I'm not choosing the line, right? That line is the best mathematical fit, determined by the smallest cumulative area formed by squares made between each point and the nearest point on the line. If we changed the line, the cumulative area of the squares would grow, indicating a poorer fit.

Yeah. I just don't agree with it. Hell, if the trend continued, if he threw a 100 passes in a game, he would be lucky to complete any. Especially on your f8irst one.

[MagicHef]

Yeah. I just don't agree with it. Hell, if the trend continued, if he threw a 100 passes in a game, he would be lucky to complete any. Especially on your earlier ones.

What if he threw a million passes in one game?

[ptlyon]

What if he threw a million passes in one game?

2.4 million interceptions

[Coogs]

What if he threw a million passes in one game?

Exactly!

EDIT: I'm going to go with he would complete 600,000 give or take 30,000... which means your line of best fit is too f'ing steep!

[Coogs]

2.4 million interceptions

Minimum!

[BigMeatballDave]

Stupid donkey bullshit.

[MagicHef]

Ok, BossChief. In 2012 the average team threw 35 passes per game and completed 61% of those.

I'll bet you that Alex Smith completes 61+% of his passes in less than half of the games where he throws 35 or more passes.

That is something that Manning, Rivers, and Palmer all managed to do in 2012, by the way. Neither Cassel nor Quinn did, though.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Y'all are getting away from the argument. The Alex Smith part is pointless as long as there are people wanting to ignore certain seasons, certain games, etc.

"This season skews the stats, this game skews the stats" - all rubbish.

Did he play in said season? Said game? Then it counts.

I don't give a shit if Alex Smith has a 95% completion percentage in Sunday late games, when he attempts fewer than 20 passes, on days where the temperature is above 75 when he's playing against a team who has gold in their uniforms and an animal as a mascot.

Last year, the 10th ranked scoring offense scored 25 points a game.

Unless the defense breaks a record for producing turnovers, it's not happening.

I think a fair expectation is around 18th - or 21 points a game.

[T-post Tom]

Fix the red zone offense & the magic 8 ball says, "All signs point to'yes'.

[SAUTO]

Y'all are getting away from the argument. The Alex Smith part is pointless as long as there are people wanting to ignore certain seasons, certain games, etc.

"This season skews the stats, this game skews the stats" - all rubbish.

Did he play in said season? Said game? Then it counts.

I don't give a shit if Alex Smith has a 95% completion percentage in Sunday late games, when he attempts fewer than 20 passes, on days where the temperature is above 75 when he's playing against a team who has gold in their uniforms and an animal as a mascot.

Last year, the 10th ranked scoring offense scored 25 points a game.

Unless the defense breaks a record for producing turnovers, it's not happening.

I think a fair expectation is around 18th - or 21 points a game. I never understood just throwing out games/seasons either.

If you need that to prove a point there isn't rally a point
Posted via Mobile Device

[SAUTO]

Really a point
Posted via Mobile Device

[Ace Gunner]

Here's his completion percentage vs attempts for the last 2 years. Tell me what happens when Reid asks him to throw 56 times.

http://s23.postimg.org/9uoj2vvuj/scp.png

if Reid has Alex Smith throwing 50 passes a game, which he won't, you have to consider the offensive scheme in order to project numbers -- the type of WCO Reid runs is high percentage passing and it gets the ball out quickly a lot of times.

Jamaal Charles will be the primary offensive weapon again this season.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Hope in one hand, shit in the other.

[mlyonsd]

I laugh at the idea of a top 10 offense but am at the same time excited to see what happens after a complete reset. Turning on the game anticipating you might win instead of wondering how bad it will be is something I'm looking forward to.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Why do people keep saying this?

He's below average in terms of yards per completion, yards per game, TD passes, third down conversions...all the most important parts of being a QB.

The guy is in no way in the top half of the league.

PFF disagrees. Why isn't Hef beating that monkey when it comes to Smith?

[MagicHef]

PFF disagrees. Why isn't Hef beating that monkey when it comes to Smith?

As I have said before, I don't like PFF's ratings. I do like their charting (snap counts, pressures, etc). It is true that Smith looks great considering his PFF rating. It's also true that I don't care about that.

[Coogs]

I never understood just throwing out games/seasons either.

If you need that to prove a point there isn't rally a point
Posted via Mobile Device

I'll try and explain...

Here is MagicHef's graph from several posts ago:

http://s23.postimg.org/9uoj2vvuj/scp.png

If you look at this it shows for every 10 passes Smith throws, his completion rate decreases by 10%. If you look close 13 passes is at 80%, 23 passes are at 70%, 33 passes are at 60%, 43 passes are at 50%, etc.

His question was for 56 passes. His answer would be about 37% completions.


Charting out completions for every 10 passes would go as follows:

10 passes 8.3 completions
20 passes 14.6 completions
30 passes 18.9 completions
40 passes 21.2 completions
50 passes 21.5 completions
60 passes 19.8 completions
70 passes 16.1 completions

For his 56 passes in one game, he would be expecting 20.7 completions.


Probably not realistic.

[milkman]

I think a fair expectation is around 18th - or 21 points a game.

7 FGs a game for the MFW MFers!

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

7 FGs a game for the MFW MFers!

LMAO

[Pasta Little Brioni]

FG's make Lil Chiefy wet

[BlackHelicopters]

Moist

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

FG's make Lil Chiefy wet

Lil' Chiefy gets an erection in tandem with Succoup's leg going horizontal...

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Lil' Chiefy gets an erection in tandem with Succoup's leg going horizontal...

...but only Colquit gets that pup tent fully extended

[Psyko Tek]

with this team, and how they've crushed my spiritis annually....

I have zero expectatinos of them until I see them.

red beers and depression fo me on sundays until they do something

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Remember when the "experts" picked the Chiefs to win the division in 2012? ROFL

I remember when Matt Cassel was our QB.

[MagicHef]

Ok, BossChief. In 2012 the average team threw 35 passes per game and completed 61% of those.

I'll bet you that Alex Smith completes 61+% of his passes in less than half of the games where he throws 35 or more passes.

That is something that Manning, Rivers, and Palmer all managed to do in 2012, by the way. Neither Cassel nor Quinn did, though.

I understand your hesitation in accepting a bet where you are on Alex Smith's side. However, I want to make sure that you know what ignoring my bet means:

You don't think Alex Smith can elevate his play to the level shown by Carson Palmer in 2012.