The stat-geeks at Grantland are clearly TrueFans..

[Discuss Thrower]

If we look only at completed passes, we see similar patterns. Long “bomb” completions are rare and a vast majority of NFL completions occur within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. In fact, only about 31 percent of all passes are thrown beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. We hear a lot that the NFL is a passing league, but it’s more accurate to say that it’s a short-passing league.

They've generated a map of the field (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/73694/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball) that shows the amount of completions at any given point, and have broken down which quarterbacks successfully target a portion of said field. Pretty interesting stuff.

[Ace Gunner]

mega-thread ensues

[notorious]

Does the red represent what is left of McCluster?

[keg in kc]

It's not about the number of attempts, it's about the percentage of success when they do go long.

[Ace Gunner]

Does the red represent what is left of McCluster?

no, I think it's a swan actually

[LoneWolf]

It's not about the number of attempts, it's about the percentage of success when they do go long.

Look at the chart. The colors represent completion percentage.

[DJ's left nut]

It's not about the number of attempts, it's about the percentage of success when they do go long.

Smith's percentage of success when he does go long is well above average, FWIW...

[Discuss Thrower]

Here's the breakdown of QBs by their zone:

[LoneWolf]

Here's the breakdown of QBs by their zone:

Look at that dink and dunk artist Tom Brady. What a noodle arm.

[bowener]

Impressive that Brady owns the left side of the field so well.

[LoneWolf]

Impressive that Brady owns the left side of the field so well.

It's Welkerlicious!

[bowener]

It's Welkerlicious!

Amendolamite!

[LoneWolf]

Amendolamite!

I just read that in the J.J. Walker voice. Rep.

[Start Croyle]

If we look only at completed passes, we see similar patterns. Long “bomb” completions are rare and a vast majority of NFL completions occur within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. In fact, only about 31 percent of all passes are thrown beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. We hear a lot that the NFL is a passing league, but it’s more accurate to say that it’s a short-passing league.

Ok, but 31 percent is still a lot! Almost one out of every three!

[Pasta Little Brioni]

But, but, but, but, but, but, but, but....

[hometeam]

Now they need to make it searchable by QB

[Dayze]

Here's the breakdown of QBs by their zone:

Odd. Primarily 1st rounders

[Marcellus]

This information flies in the face of about 90% of CP's mantra on QB's.

This was a fairly funny comment -

https://fbcdn-profile-a.akamaihd.net/hprofile-ak-frc3/369121_5237214_435388427_q.jpg (https://www.facebook.com/krhimself)Kenny Rowland (https://www.facebook.com/krhimself) · Top CommenterTake away the green, yellow, and orange dots out of the picture, and you get Blaine Gabbert's passing chart.

[Marcellus]

Here's the breakdown of QBs by their zone:

Look how Stafford is abusing teams with his cannon arm!

[Kylo Ren]

They've generated a map of the field (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/73694/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball) that shows the amount of completions at any given point, and have broken down which quarterbacks successfully target a portion of said field. Pretty interesting stuff. On the far right hand side, where it says 0 yards, that very small patch of green..... those are all from Cassel.

[Discuss Thrower]

I like how the second image shows that a) Drew Brees is a god b) Flacco might be worth his millions.

[Nightfyre]

How does this information fly in the face of 90% of CP's mantra on QBs? No shit sherlock; QB's complete a higher percentage of passes closer to the LOS. No shit sherlock; Tom Brady throws a lot of passes. No shit sherlock; most passes in the NFL today are thrown under ten yards. This information is not useful in the least.

[cdcox]

I am offended by the label "stat-geek". We prefer the to be described in the third person as "unlike everyone else, they are not numerically illiterate".

[Discuss Thrower]

I am offended by the label "stat-geek". We prefer the to be described in the third person as "unlike everyone else, they are not numerically illiterate".

U mad brah?

[ChiefGator]

The percentages on long passes is so low specifically BECAUSE Alex Smith is included in the stats. ;)

[Marcellus]

How does this information fly in the face of 90% of CP's mantra on QBs? No shit sherlock; QB's complete a higher percentage of passes closer to the LOS. No shit sherlock; Tom Brady throws a lot of passes. No shit sherlock; most passes in the NFL today are thrown under ten yards. This information is not useful in the least.

Passes of 20 yards or farther make up ~11% of NFL throws, and that is including throw aways down the sideline inflating the number and are only completed at a ~25% rate. So if a QB throws the ball on average 40 times they throw over 20 yards about 4 and complete 1.

Getting the ball to a guy in space to get YAC and making reads to maximize yards per attempt have a bigger impact than how far in the air you throw the ball.

[Dinny Bossa Nova]

I bet Geno's chart looks like a beautiful photograph of an amazing fireworks display. Like a huge mushroom cloud going into outer space and stuff. Up there with Luke and Princess Whatshername.

Dinny

[Skyy God]

Smith's percentage of success when he does go long is well above average, FWIW...

Like 48% over 20 yards.

[DanT]

I am offended by the label "stat-geek". We prefer the to be described in the third person as "unlike everyone else, they are not numerically illiterate".

:toast:

[Dinny Bossa Nova]

These guys must be talking about the "old" NFL.

If what they are saying is true, none of these QBs has a prayer of winning championships in "today's" NFL. That is a fact and can't be denied.

A world with no Superbowl champion. Wiggy........

Dinny

[ViperVisor]

Did you guys watch Sunday NBC preseason game? Probably not, it was a 49ers game and more important it was a meaningless preseason game.

i.imgur.com/ChEgfZ0.png

Smith's sample is too small to be super important but not a surprise for Kaepernick. He has an accurate whip. He should stay high in the future.


But, the play before that happened shows the problem with Kaepernick last year. He was locking on and forcing the ball.

The sloppy bouncy deep drops to pass.
i.imgur.com/30svGvU.jpg
i.imgur.com/ax1VBIv.jpg


i.imgur.com/h2ARDGO.jpg
Never looks to the left or right option.
MIN DBs are all dropping into zone.
Easy 5 yards to the left and the TE
Easy 10 yards to the right and the RB


i.imgur.com/b4TQ2RG.jpg
DB sees it coming and jumps in-front and gets 2 hands on it.
When you are 9 yards back in the pocket and the ball had to travel 25 yards past the LOS after that it is about timing as much as velocity. He was late.

I saw this throughout 2012 and he was fortunate it didn't cost the 49ers another loss in his starts. And why I'd take the under for the 49ers win total. Just a bit of bad luck and a couple bumps in the road with Kaepernick's development and probably at 11 Wins right there. And then an injury or 2 and could push it to 10. This is the NFL and some teams are hit with key players ending up on the IR.

[Nightfyre]

Passes of 20 yards or farther make up ~11% of NFL throws, and that is including throw aways down the sideline inflating the number and are only completed at a ~25% rate. So if a QB throws the ball on average 40 times they throw over 20 yards about 4 and complete 1.

Getting the ball to a guy in space to get YAC and making reads to maximize yards per attempt have a bigger impact than how far in the air you throw the ball.

No shit. None of this flies in the face of Chiefsplanet mantra though.

[vailpass]

It's Welkerlicious!

I'll take it.

[splatbass]

No shit. None of this flies in the face of Chiefsplanet mantra though.

Yeah, it does. Clay whined so much the first two preseason games that Alex Smith didn't throw any long passes it was sickening - and plenty of others supported him. This has been an argument for quite a while from a large number of posters here, that the long pass is what you should judge a QB by, and short passes mean dump offs and are what inferior QBs do because they can't throw long. Where have you been the last ten years?

[BossChief]

I'd like to see the chart that shows only the play of quarterbacks during the year they won the superbowl. Or at least made it to the superbowl.

I dot care if the overall percentage of NFL passes that are within 10 yards are at 60% or 70% or 95%...I care about this team having a chance at winning a superbowl in my lifetime and would prefer to look at what it takes to do exactly that.

Rothlisberger
Flacco
Rodgers
Brees

And other quarterbacks of that ilk force teams to defend those deep zones or they destroy them if they don't.

That's what opens up the underneath game and allows it to flourish and carry a team, not being afraid to trust your own skills to make those throws.

BTW, Brees and Smith have very similar arm strength...the difference is one has balls.

Hopefully, Alex can grow a pair under Reids coaching and we all get a big laugh at the planets reaction to trading soo much for him.

[AlexSmithDynasty]

Why hasn't gochiefs(except QB) responded in this thread, I was looking forward to how he would troll this.

[Nightfyre]

Yeah, it does. Clay whined so much the first two preseason games that Alex Smith didn't throw any long passes it was sickening - and plenty of others supported him. This has been an argument for quite a while from a large number of posters here, that the long pass is what you should judge a QB by, and short passes mean dump offs and are what inferior QBs do because they can't throw long. Where have you been the last ten years?

There is a significant difference between gochiefs mantra and chiefsplanet mantra. Matt Cassel was called captain checkdown because he didn't have the capability to read a progression and recognize when an intermediate or deep pass was open, let alone the capability to even keep the safeties out of the goddamned box. The threat of going deep is more potent than the act of doing it in that it frees up the underneath stuff to include the running game and short/intermediate passes.

[milkman]

Yeah, it does. Clay whined so much the first two preseason games that Alex Smith didn't throw any long passes it was sickening - and plenty of others supported him. This has been an argument for quite a while from a large number of posters here, that the long pass is what you should judge a QB by, and short passes mean dump offs and are what inferior QBs do because they can't throw long. Where have you been the last ten years?

You just can not grasp simple concepts, can you.

No one has ever said that you judge a QB by his deep passing.

A QB has to be willing to occassionally attack the deep zones at times when vhis receivers are not completely wide open.

We aren't asking him to throw nothing but deep balls.
We are simply asking that there be a willingness to take a couple of shots in tight windows.

QBs that don't allow deffenses to crowd the LOS, and good defenses can completely shut down the short passing game when they are given that advantage.

[splatbass]

You just can not grasp simple concepts, can you.

No one has ever said that you judge a QB by his deep passing.



Apparently you have never read any of Clay's many posts on the subject.

[milkman]

Apparently you have never read any of Clay's many posts on the subject.

He's trolling, but he also provides some good info.

Among that info is the fact that only a couple of QBs have taken fewer shots than Alex Smith.

Even Matt Cassel has attempted more deep passes.

[AlexSmithDynasty]

You just can not grasp simple concepts, can you.

No one has ever said that you judge a QB by his deep passing.

A QB has to be willing to occassionally attack the deep zones at times when vhis receivers are not completely wide open.

We aren't asking him to throw nothing but deep balls.
We are simply asking that there be a willingness to take a couple of shots in tight windows.

QBs that don't allow deffenses to crowd the LOS, and good defenses can completely shut down the short passing game when they are given that advantage.

Like this deep shot?

<script height="395px" width="703px" src="http://player.ooyala.com/iframe.js#ec=UxMmo4YzosTOq_L-6yqjqLazsqp-D8-T&pbid=e7e908eebffd4efeb96a3096aa9b4bd0"></script>

[splatbass]

He's trolling, but he also provides some good info.

Among that info is the fact that only a couple of QBs have taken fewer shots than Alex Smith.

Even Matt Cassel has attempted more deep passes.

Clay is a moron, and anyone that defends him can't be that bright.

[milkman]

Like this deep shot?

<script height="395px" width="703px" src="http://player.ooyala.com/iframe.js#ec=UxMmo4YzosTOq_L-6yqjqLazsqp-D8-T&pbid=e7e908eebffd4efeb96a3096aa9b4bd0"></script>

Crabtree had the DB beat at the LOS, and the safety was out of positioj.

That's an example of the receiver being wide open.

[milkman]

Clay is a moron, and anyone that defends him can't be that bright.

How the fuck did you survive your own stupidity to live beyond 50 years?

Show me, you dumbass, how exactly I defended him.

[whoman69]

They want to call it insignificant and yet it happens on almost one third of pass plays? I'm sure Matt Cassel and the other Chiefs QBs threw off the curve.

[splatbass]

Crabtree had the DB beat at the LOS, and the safety was out of positioj.

That's an example of the receiver being wide open.

And Alex Smith hit him in stride and right on the money.

[mdchiefsfan]

And Alex Smith hit him in stride and right on the money.

We're not questioning his accuracy; we're questioning his guts. Will he put it in a tight window at a long distance when it is needed, or will he check down and take the safe bet?

[Marcellus]

No shit. None of this flies in the face of Chiefsplanet mantra though.

You new here?

[DaFace]

Neat charts. Thanks for posting.