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cdcox
10-01-2013, 11:02 PM
These are completely unofficial since they are based on http://www.advancednflstats.com/ Week 3 efficiency ratings. As soon as week 4 comes out, I'll have the official ratings, and update my website for 2013.

<html><head><title>Division Finish</title></head><body>
<p> Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division </p>
<p>AFC EAST</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>New England</td>
<td>44.642</td>
<td>30.342</td>
<td>17.818</td>
<td>7.198</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Miami</td>
<td>33.668</td>
<td>29.374</td>
<td>22.734</td>
<td>14.224</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NY Jets</td>
<td>16.18</td>
<td>27.134</td>
<td>33.286</td>
<td>23.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Buffalo</td>
<td>5.51</td>
<td>13.15</td>
<td>26.162</td>
<td>55.178</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>AFC NORTH</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Cincinnati</td>
<td>38.548</td>
<td>30.42</td>
<td>21.25</td>
<td>9.782</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cleveland</td>
<td>36.544</td>
<td>31.126</td>
<td>21.216</td>
<td>11.114</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baltimore</td>
<td>17.676</td>
<td>23.952</td>
<td>31.116</td>
<td>27.256</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pittsburgh</td>
<td>7.232</td>
<td>14.502</td>
<td>26.418</td>
<td>51.848</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>AFC SOUTH</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Indianapolis</td>
<td>66.058</td>
<td>23.138</td>
<td>10.308</td>
<td>0.496</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>17.456</td>
<td>38.068</td>
<td>38.722</td>
<td>5.754</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>16.23</td>
<td>36.334</td>
<td>40.432</td>
<td>7.004</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jacksonville</td>
<td>0.256</td>
<td>2.46</td>
<td>10.538</td>
<td>86.746</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>AFC WEST</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Denver</td>
<td>76.272</td>
<td>21.794</td>
<td>1.782</td>
<td>0.152</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas City</td>
<td>22.34</td>
<td>63.138</td>
<td>12.054</td>
<td>2.468</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>San Diego</td>
<td>1.148</td>
<td>10.096</td>
<td>51.372</td>
<td>37.384</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oakland</td>
<td>0.24</td>
<td>4.972</td>
<td>34.792</td>
<td>59.996</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>NFC EAST</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Dallas</td>
<td>50.946</td>
<td>29.56</td>
<td>15.546</td>
<td>3.948</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Philadelphia</td>
<td>30.26</td>
<td>33.372</td>
<td>28.8</td>
<td>7.568</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NY Giants</td>
<td>17.112</td>
<td>31.018</td>
<td>37.224</td>
<td>14.646</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Washington</td>
<td>1.682</td>
<td>6.05</td>
<td>18.43</td>
<td>73.838</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>NFC NORTH</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Detroit</td>
<td>74.772</td>
<td>18.918</td>
<td>5.496</td>
<td>0.814</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chicago</td>
<td>13.282</td>
<td>41.9</td>
<td>33.364</td>
<td>11.454</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Green Bay</td>
<td>10.922</td>
<td>30.924</td>
<td>36.872</td>
<td>21.282</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Minnesota</td>
<td>1.024</td>
<td>8.258</td>
<td>24.268</td>
<td>66.45</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>NFC SOUTH</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>New Orleans</td>
<td>83.2</td>
<td>13.748</td>
<td>2.782</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Carolina</td>
<td>10.144</td>
<td>39.796</td>
<td>34.618</td>
<td>15.442</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Atlanta</td>
<td>6.036</td>
<td>37.29</td>
<td>38.76</td>
<td>17.914</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tampa Bay</td>
<td>0.62</td>
<td>9.166</td>
<td>23.84</td>
<td>66.374</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>NFC WEST</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Seattle</td>
<td>97.682</td>
<td>2.088</td>
<td>0.206</td>
<td>0.024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>San Francisco</td>
<td>1.276</td>
<td>53.604</td>
<td>33.008</td>
<td>12.112</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arizona</td>
<td>0.938</td>
<td>36.304</td>
<td>41.464</td>
<td>21.294</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St Louis</td>
<td>0.104</td>
<td>8.004</td>
<td>25.322</td>
<td>66.57</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>Generated: Wed Oct 02 01:23:59 EDT 2013</p>
</body></html>


<html><head><title>Playoff Seedings</title></head><body>
<p>AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td><td>5th</td><td>6th</td><td>Total</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Denver</td>
<td>53.722</td>
<td>15.768</td>
<td>6.058</td>
<td>0.724</td>
<td>15.02</td>
<td>4.364</td>
<td>95.656</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas City</td>
<td>13.026</td>
<td>6.034</td>
<td>2.806</td>
<td>0.474</td>
<td>33.206</td>
<td>14.882</td>
<td>70.428</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>New England</td>
<td>9.92</td>
<td>18.808</td>
<td>12.002</td>
<td>3.912</td>
<td>9.862</td>
<td>12.318</td>
<td>66.822</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Indianapolis</td>
<td>9.444</td>
<td>18.336</td>
<td>28.842</td>
<td>9.436</td>
<td>3.078</td>
<td>5.248</td>
<td>74.384</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Miami</td>
<td>7.87</td>
<td>16.056</td>
<td>8.004</td>
<td>1.738</td>
<td>12.072</td>
<td>14.174</td>
<td>59.914</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NY Jets</td>
<td>1.48</td>
<td>6.818</td>
<td>5.892</td>
<td>1.99</td>
<td>7.256</td>
<td>12.58</td>
<td>36.016</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>1.48</td>
<td>5.21</td>
<td>8.568</td>
<td>2.198</td>
<td>6.178</td>
<td>10.212</td>
<td>33.846</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>1.096</td>
<td>3.842</td>
<td>7.732</td>
<td>3.56</td>
<td>3.886</td>
<td>7.444</td>
<td>27.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cincinnati</td>
<td>0.684</td>
<td>3.376</td>
<td>7.766</td>
<td>26.722</td>
<td>0.734</td>
<td>1.924</td>
<td>41.206</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Buffalo</td>
<td>0.494</td>
<td>2.286</td>
<td>2.02</td>
<td>0.71</td>
<td>3.85</td>
<td>6.982</td>
<td>16.342</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cleveland</td>
<td>0.35</td>
<td>2.128</td>
<td>6.41</td>
<td>27.656</td>
<td>0.534</td>
<td>1.594</td>
<td>38.672</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>San Diego</td>
<td>0.308</td>
<td>0.386</td>
<td>0.352</td>
<td>0.102</td>
<td>2.68</td>
<td>4.254</td>
<td>8.082</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baltimore</td>
<td>0.076</td>
<td>0.698</td>
<td>2.668</td>
<td>14.234</td>
<td>0.288</td>
<td>0.984</td>
<td>18.948</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pittsburgh</td>
<td>0.02</td>
<td>0.158</td>
<td>0.66</td>
<td>6.394</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>0.456</td>
<td>7.778</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oakland</td>
<td>0.03</td>
<td>0.086</td>
<td>0.094</td>
<td>0.03</td>
<td>1.23</td>
<td>2.456</td>
<td>3.926</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jacksonville</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.01</td>
<td>0.126</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>0.036</td>
<td>0.128</td>
<td>0.42</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding</p>
<p><table border="1">
<tr><td>Team</td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td><td>5th</td><td>6th</td><td>Total</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Seattle</td>
<td>69.404</td>
<td>19.446</td>
<td>7.296</td>
<td>1.536</td>
<td>1.354</td>
<td>0.492</td>
<td>99.528</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>New Orleans</td>
<td>18.418</td>
<td>35.244</td>
<td>22.58</td>
<td>6.958</td>
<td>7.124</td>
<td>3.844</td>
<td>94.168</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Detroit</td>
<td>7.87</td>
<td>24.02</td>
<td>30.144</td>
<td>12.738</td>
<td>6.63</td>
<td>5.692</td>
<td>87.094</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dallas</td>
<td>1.312</td>
<td>5.644</td>
<td>11.904</td>
<td>32.086</td>
<td>3.87</td>
<td>5.704</td>
<td>60.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chicago</td>
<td>0.738</td>
<td>3.576</td>
<td>5.716</td>
<td>3.252</td>
<td>11.812</td>
<td>12.04</td>
<td>37.134</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Carolina</td>
<td>0.454</td>
<td>3.582</td>
<td>4.088</td>
<td>2.02</td>
<td>14.506</td>
<td>12.51</td>
<td>37.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Philadelphia</td>
<td>0.398</td>
<td>2.594</td>
<td>6.344</td>
<td>20.924</td>
<td>3.886</td>
<td>6.07</td>
<td>40.216</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Atlanta</td>
<td>0.45</td>
<td>1.944</td>
<td>2.37</td>
<td>1.272</td>
<td>13.746</td>
<td>12.074</td>
<td>31.856</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Green Bay</td>
<td>0.304</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>4.87</td>
<td>3.548</td>
<td>7.248</td>
<td>9.202</td>
<td>27.372</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>San Francisco</td>
<td>0.342</td>
<td>0.382</td>
<td>0.396</td>
<td>0.156</td>
<td>14.898</td>
<td>12.236</td>
<td>28.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NY Giants</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.826</td>
<td>3.072</td>
<td>13.114</td>
<td>2.348</td>
<td>4.49</td>
<td>23.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arizona</td>
<td>0.168</td>
<td>0.308</td>
<td>0.33</td>
<td>0.132</td>
<td>8.746</td>
<td>8.876</td>
<td>18.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Minnesota</td>
<td>0.024</td>
<td>0.088</td>
<td>0.482</td>
<td>0.43</td>
<td>1.376</td>
<td>2.452</td>
<td>4.852</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tampa Bay</td>
<td>0.01</td>
<td>0.116</td>
<td>0.28</td>
<td>0.214</td>
<td>1.704</td>
<td>2.564</td>
<td>4.888</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St Louis</td>
<td>0.008</td>
<td>0.016</td>
<td>0.034</td>
<td>0.046</td>
<td>0.602</td>
<td>1.32</td>
<td>2.026</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Washington</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.014</td>
<td>0.094</td>
<td>1.574</td>
<td>0.15</td>
<td>0.434</td>
<td>2.266</td>
</tr>
</table></p>
<p>Generated: Wed Oct 02 01:23:59 EDT 2013</p>
</body></html>
Hammock Parties
10-01-2013, 11:05 PM
So we'd have to play the Bengals or Colts on the road most likely.

Greaaaat.
cdcox
10-01-2013, 11:07 PM
.
RealSNR
10-01-2013, 11:10 PM
The division odds for Detroit are just fucking bananas.

I'm pretty positive they won't finish ahead of Green Bay or Chicago at the end of the season.
cdcox
10-01-2013, 11:14 PM
It's still way early. The efficiency ratings are based on a grand total of 3 games.
cdcox
10-01-2013, 11:19 PM
The division odds for Detroit are just ****ing bananas.

I'm pretty positive they won't finish ahead of Green Bay or Chicago at the end of the season.

I entered the outcome of the Pittsburgh Chicago game wrong. Correction forthcoming.
BossChief
10-01-2013, 11:24 PM
Can two teams from the same division both get first round byes?
Hammock Parties
10-01-2013, 11:32 PM
Can two teams from the same division both get first round byes?

No.
Direckshun
10-01-2013, 11:33 PM
So we'd have to play the Bengals or Colts on the road most likely.

Greaaaat.

I think we can take either team, honestly.

Neither team has a particularly tough home crowd, though the Colts' comes close.

I don't think Dalton is doing shit against our D, though that Cincinnati defense is stingy as fuck.

I think we can play Luck straight up so long as Reggie Wayne doesn't own our shit, and that Indianapolis defense revolves entirely around Robert Mathis. Throw extra resources at him and you can make shit happen.
Dante84
10-01-2013, 11:33 PM
Can two teams from the same division both get first round byes?

I wish.

But sadly, no.

If Denver wins the West, we will be relegated to a WC seed.

If we are the 5th, and Denver is the 1st, we would very likely play Denver in the Divisional round (assuming 4 beats the 6th seed).

If we are in that boat, we pray like hell that 6 beats 4.
Direckshun
10-01-2013, 11:33 PM
The only team in the AFC that I think this Chiefs team doesn't match up well with are the Broncos. That's it.

There's like a half dozen teams in the NFC, but we don't have to worry about them until the Super Bowl.
Hammock Parties
10-01-2013, 11:35 PM
Direckshun wants it all he wants it all he wants it all and he wants it now.
MGRS13
10-01-2013, 11:35 PM
You guys do realize if some how we win the division America will cry.
cdcox
10-01-2013, 11:35 PM
The Chicago correction didn't make that much difference. ANS just thinks Detroit is the best team in that division. But it's early.
MGRS13
10-01-2013, 11:36 PM
Clay you have really gone past smith hater to full on donkeys fan right. Its sorta sad.
Direckshun
10-01-2013, 11:37 PM
You guys do realize if some how we win the division America will cry.

We're playing a last-place schedule. The Donks are playing a first place schedule.

So long as we don't shit ourselves in trap games, we have as good a chance as anybody.
Hammock Parties
10-01-2013, 11:37 PM
You guys do realize if some how we win the division America will cry.

We've got a job to do. (replace with Reid and Dorsey)

http://i50.tinypic.com/2h3x2fc.jpg+
Hammock Parties
10-01-2013, 11:38 PM
Clay you have really gone past smith hater to full on donkeys fan right. Its sorta sad.

What?

We are a good football team.

Not ready to say we are better than other good football teams.
cdcox
10-01-2013, 11:40 PM
19 posts and no Jim Mora. YES!
MGRS13
10-01-2013, 11:46 PM
What?

We are a good football team.

Not ready to say we are better than other good football teams.

Thats fine... but the peyton swallowing is reaching epic proportions. Dont get all defensive I agree with u alot. Im not a "true fan" not high on smith at all but its getting obvious you prefer the donks and manning to the chiefs. If you dont like that observasion just browse your own post for the last three weeks.
Hammock Parties
10-01-2013, 11:48 PM
Weird post.
MotherfuckerJones
10-01-2013, 11:51 PM
If our team can get healthy as possible and our receivers/TEs catch the ball and our oline improves, then I like us to get a playoff win. I'm no Smith homer but we have 13 dropped passes in 4 games.
MGRS13
10-02-2013, 12:03 AM
Weird post.

truth hurts?
Hammock Parties
10-02-2013, 12:04 AM
I haven't talked about the Broncos in this thread.

Again, weird post.
MGRS13
10-02-2013, 12:05 AM
We're playing a last-place schedule. The Donks are playing a first place schedule.

So long as we don't shit ourselves in trap games, we have as good a chance as anybody.

Two game differance. Argument sucks
MGRS13
10-02-2013, 12:10 AM
I haven't talked about the Broncos in this thread.

Again, weird post.

What ever, you like the Donks to win it all. thats cool. Im not gonna jump your shit about it, but also not going to pretend it is what it is.
Hammock Parties
10-02-2013, 12:10 AM
What ever, you like the Donks to win it all. thats cool. Im not gonna jump your shit about it, but also not going to pretend it is what it is.

I have not mentioned this.

Weird posts from you.
MGRS13
10-02-2013, 12:18 AM
I have not mentioned this.

Weird posts from you.

So at no point on the planet have you pointed out what an amazing pace peyton is on? like I said check the last few weeks. You are "trolling" for lack of a better term a site of a team you pretend to represent. Look I get it The chiefs didnt go for the home run at QB. You dont like it and either did I. The deffernce is is I would be happy to be wrong for a winner at arrowhead no matter what my best judgement is. You on the other hand would rather right then to see a parade down grand street. Thats fine. but please just hope for the pats to win, sing thier prases cause I for one couldnt stand to see the donks holding the lombardi at the end of the year.
Hammock Parties
10-02-2013, 12:25 AM
Peyton is on an amazing pace, yes.

That does not mean I think the Donks are winning the SB.

Weird.

Go Chiefs. Fuck the Donks.

Feel better now?
Discuss Thrower
10-02-2013, 12:36 AM
The last half of the schedule tho
MGRS13
10-02-2013, 12:46 AM
Peyton is on an amazing pace, yes.

That does not mean I think the Donks are winning the SB.

Weird.

Go Chiefs. **** the Donks.

Feel better now?

Yes, yes I do. I still belive you would rather be right then see the Chiefs win it all. I live here have no other NFL love. Its chiefs or nothing for me. Id rather be lucky then good when it comes to my fandom. Im not big on SMITH AND CAN DIG THAT U ARE NOT EITHER.. "sorry hit caps lock at some point not yelling in inter web terms" Just tired of waiting. I want it bad no matter what it takes. Oh and I really really hate the donks. Is Peyton on an unreal pace? Yeah its crazy, but I just dont care and just cant respect it from a "historical" prospective. I just hate the donks. hate em hate em hate em. sorry it is what it is.
listopencil
10-02-2013, 02:13 AM
Yes, yes I do. I still belive you would rather be right then see the Chiefs win it all. I live here have no other NFL love. Its chiefs or nothing for me. Id rather be lucky then good when it comes to my fandom. Im not big on SMITH AND CAN DIG THAT U ARE NOT EITHER.. "sorry hit caps lock at some point not yelling in inter web terms" Just tired of waiting. I want it bad no matter what it takes. Oh and I really really hate the donks. Is Peyton on an unreal pace? Yeah its crazy, but I just dont care and just cant respect it from a "historical" prospective. I just hate the donks. hate em hate em hate em. sorry it is what it is.

If you've been drinking...slow down. If you haven't...start.